Dimension reduction for systems with slow relaxation

We develop reduced, stochastic models for high dimensional, dissipative dynamical systems that relax very slowly to equilibrium and can encode long term memory. We present a variety of empirical and first principles approaches for model reduction, and build a mathematical framework for analyzing the reduced models. We introduce the notions of universal and asymptotic filters to characterize `optimal' model reductions for sloppy linear models. We illustrate our methods by applying them to the practically important problem of modeling evaporation in oil spills.Comment: 48 Pages, 13 figures. Paper dedicated to the memory of Leo Kadanof

Simpson's Paradox, Lord's Paradox, and Suppression Effects are the same phenomenon – the reversal paradox

This article discusses three statistical paradoxes that pervade epidemiological research: Simpson's paradox, Lord's paradox, and suppression. These paradoxes have important implications for the interpretation of evidence from observational studies. This article uses hypothetical scenarios to illustrate how the three paradoxes are different manifestations of one phenomenon – the reversal paradox – depending on whether the outcome and explanatory variables are categorical, continuous or a combination of both; this renders the issues and remedies for any one to be similar for all three. Although the three statistical paradoxes occur in different types of variables, they share the same characteristic: the association between two variables can be reversed, diminished, or enhanced when another variable is statistically controlled for. Understanding the concepts and theory behind these paradoxes provides insights into some controversial or contradictory research findings. These paradoxes show that prior knowledge and underlying causal theory play an important role in the statistical modelling of epidemiological data, where incorrect use of statistical models might produce consistent, replicable, yet erroneous results

Stationary rotary force waves on the liquid–air core interface of a swirl atomizer

A one-dimensional wave equation, applicable to the waves on the surface of the air-core of a swirl atomizer is derived analytically, by analogy to the similar one-dimensional wave equation derivation for shallowwater gravity waves. In addition an analogy to the flow of water over a weir is used to produce an analytical derivation of the flow over the lip of the outlet of a swirl atomizer using the principle of maximum flow. The principle of maximum flow is substantiated by reference to continuity of the discharge in the direction of streaming. For shallowwater gravity waves, the phase velocity is the same expression as for the critical velocity over the weir. Similarly, in the present work, the wave phase velocity on the surface of the air-core is shown to be the same expression as for the critical velocity for the flow at the outlet. In addition, this wave phase velocity is shown to be the square root of the product of the radial acceleration and the liquid thickness, as analogous with the wave phase velocity for shallow water gravity waves, which is the square root of the product of the acceleration due to gravity and the water depth. The work revisits the weirs and flumes work of Binnie et al. but using a different methodology. The results corroborate with the work of Binnie. High speed video, Laser Doppler Anemometry and deflected laser beam experimental work has been carried out on an oversize Perspex (Plexiglas) swirl atomizer. Three distinctive types of waves were detected: helical striations, low amplitude random ripples and low frequency stationary waves. It is the latter wave type that is considered further in this article. The experimentally observed waves appear to be stationary upon the axially moving flow. The mathematical analysis allows for the possibility of a negative value for the phase velocity expression. Therefore the critical velocity and the wave phase velocity do indeed lead to stationary waves in the atomizer. A quantitative comparison between the analytically derived wave phase velocity and that measured experimentally, for this stationary pulsating wave, show very good agreement within a few percent

Greenhouse gas emissions resulting from conversion of peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation.

Conversion of tropical peat swamp forest to drainage-based agriculture alters greenhouse gas (GHG) production, but the magnitude of these changes remains highly uncertain. Current emissions factors for oil palm grown on drained peat do not account for temporal variation over the plantation cycle and only consider CO2 emissions. Here, we present direct measurements of GHGs emitted during the conversion from peat swamp forest to oil palm plantation, accounting for CH4 and N2O as well as CO2. Our results demonstrate that emissions factors for converted peat swamp forest is in the range 70-117 t CO2 eq ha-1 yr-1 (95% confidence interval, CI), with CO2 and N2O responsible for ca. 60 and ca. 40% of this value, respectively. These GHG emissions suggest that conversion of Southeast Asian peat swamp forest is contributing between 16.6 and 27.9% (95% CI) of combined total national GHG emissions from Malaysia and Indonesia or 0.44 and 0.74% (95% CI) of annual global emissions

Drivers of Cape Verde archipelagic endemism in keyhole limpets

Oceanic archipelagos are the ideal setting for investigating processes that shape species assemblages. Focusing on keyhole limpets, genera Fissurella and Diodora from Cape Verde Islands, we used an integrative approach combining molecular phylogenetics with ocean transport simulations to infer species distribution patterns and analyse connectivity. Dispersal simulations, using pelagic larval duration and ocean currents as proxies, showed a reduced level of connectivity despite short distances between some of the islands. It is suggested that dispersal and persistence driven by patterns of oceanic circulation favouring self-recruitment played a primary role in explaining contemporary species distributions. Mitochondrial and nuclear data revealed the existence of eight Cape Verde endemic lineages, seven within Fissurella, distributed across the archipelago, and one within Diodora restricted to Boavista. The estimated origins for endemic Fissurella and Diodora were 10.2 and 6.7 MY, respectively. Between 9.5 and 4.5 MY, an intense period of volcanism in Boavista might have affected Diodora, preventing its diversification. Having originated earlier, Fissurella might have had more opportunities to disperse to other islands and speciate before those events. Bayesian analyses showed increased diversification rates in Fissurella possibly promoted by low sea levels during Plio-Pleistocene, which further explain differences in species richness between both genera.FCT - Portuguese Science Foundation [SFRH/BPD/109685/2015, SFRH/BPD/111003/2015]; Norte Portugal Regional Operational Program (NORTE), under the PORTUGAL Partnership Agreement, through the European Regional Development Fund (ERDF) [MARINFO - NORTE-01-0145-FEDER-000031]info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Cervical HPV infection and neoplasia in a large population-based prospective study: the Manchester cohort

Cytology and histology records and cervical samples for HPV assay were obtained from a prospective cohort of 49 655 women attending clinics for routine cervical cytology in or near Manchester between 1988 and 1993. The women were followed up for cytological abnormality and neoplasia through the cytology laboratory's records. HPV at entry was assayed in an age- and period-stratified random sample of 7278 women and in prevalent and incident CIN3 cases. The prevalence of newly diagnosed CIN3 increased with time since last normal smear, indicating that most cases persist for several years. CIN3 prevalence did not increase further for screening intervals exceeding 5 years, however, suggesting that CIN3 eventually regresses cytologically. CIN2 prevalence increased less steeply with screening interval, while the prevalence of lesser abnormality was almost independent of screening interval. The prevalence of oncogenic HPV at entry declined from 19% among women aged under 25 to less than 3% at age 40 or above. Oncogenic HPV infection was strongly predictive of subsequent CIN3 (OR 17.2, 95% CI 10.4-28.4), but only weakly related to CIN2 (OR 2.3, 95% CI 0.5-10.7) and lesser abnormality (OR 1.4, 95% CI 0.8-2.5). At current incidence rates, the lifetime risk of developing CIN3 will be 9% in this population. The cumulative risk of CIN3 diagnosis among cytologically normal women with oncogenic HPV detected at entry was 28% (CI 18-43%) after 14 years. Persistence of oncogenic HPV may be more sensitive and specific than cytology for early detection of CIN3 and invasive cancer

Benthic community structure and ecosystem functions in above- and below-waterfall pools in Borneo

Waterfalls are geomorphic features that often partition streams into discrete zones. Our study examined aquatic communities, litter decomposition and periphyton growth rates for above- and below-waterfall pools in Ulu Temburong National Park, Brunei. We observed higher fish densities in below-waterfall pools (0.24 fish m−2 vs. 0.02 fish m−2 in above-waterfall pools) and higher shrimp abundance in above-waterfall pools (eight shrimp/pool vs. less than one shrimp/pool in below-waterfall pools). However, macroinvertebrate densities (excluding shrimp) were similar among both pool types. Ambient periphyton was higher in below-waterfall pools in 2013 (4.3 vs. 2.8 g m−2 in above-waterfall pools) and 2014 (4.8 vs. 3.4 g m−2 in above-waterfall pools), while periphyton growth rates varied from 0.05 to 0.26 g m−2 days−1 and were significantly higher in below-waterfall pools in 2014. Leaf litter decomposition rates (0.001 to 0.024 days−1) did not differ between pool types, suggesting that neither shrimp nor fish densities had consistent impacts on this ecosystem function. Regardless, this research demonstrates the varied effects of biotic and abiotic factors on community structure and ecosystem function. Our results have highlighted the importance of discontinuities, such as waterfalls, in tropical streams.</p

Evolutionary genomics of a cold-adapted diatom: Fragilariopsis cylindrus

The Southern Ocean houses a diverse and productive community of organisms1, 2. Unicellular eukaryotic diatoms are the main primary producers in this environment, where photosynthesis is limited by low concentrations of dissolved iron and large seasonal fluctuations in light, temperature and the extent of sea ice3, 4, 5, 6, 7. How diatoms have adapted to this extreme environment is largely unknown. Here we present insights into the genome evolution of a cold-adapted diatom from the Southern Ocean, Fragilariopsis cylindrus8, 9, based on a comparison with temperate diatoms. We find that approximately 24.7 per cent of the diploid F. cylindrus genome consists of genetic loci with alleles that are highly divergent (15.1 megabases of the total genome size of 61.1 megabases). These divergent alleles were differentially expressed across environmental conditions, including darkness, low iron, freezing, elevated temperature and increased CO2. Alleles with the largest ratio of non-synonymous to synonymous nucleotide substitutions also show the most pronounced condition-dependent expression, suggesting a correlation between diversifying selection and allelic differentiation. Divergent alleles may be involved in adaptation to environmental fluctuations in the Southern Ocean

Adverse Event Investigation and Risk Assessment

AbstractThis chapter describes a comprehensive approach to adverse event investigation and risk assessment, as well as the characteristics of an integrated system for patient safety and clinical risk management. Drawing on evidence from other industries and healthcare organizations across the globe, the author's report how such a system can be developed with the active involvement of policy-makers, healthcare managers, health professionals, and patients. Human factors and ergonomics provide the theoretical framework in which the guiding principles, methods, and tools are selected and applied to identify, analyze, and prevent risks related to unsafe care in any healthcare setting