Arctic Climate Impact Assessment - ACIA

Earth’s climate is changing, with the global temperature now rising at a rate unprecedented in the experience of modern human society.These climate changes, including increases in ultraviolet radiation, are being experienced particularly intensely in the Arctic. Because the Arctic plays a special role in global climate, these changes in the Arctic will also affect the rest of the world. It is thus essential that decision makers have the latest and best information available regarding ongoing changes in the Arctic and their global implications. The Arctic Council called for this assessment and charged two of its working groups, the Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme (AMAP) and the Conservation of Arctic Flora and Fauna (CAFF), along with the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), with its implementation. An Assessment Steering Committee was charged with the responsibility for scientific oversight and coordination of all work related to the preparation of the assessment reports. This assessment was prepared over the past five years by an international team of over 300 scientists, other experts, and knowledgeable members of the indigenous communities. The lead authors were selected from open nominations provided by AMAP, CAFF, IASC, the Indigenous Peoples Secretariat, the Assessment Steering Committee, and several national and international scientific organizations. A similar nomination process was used by ACIA to select international experts who independently reviewed this report.The report has been thoroughly researched, is fully referenced, and provides the first comprehensive evaluation of arctic climate change, changes in ultraviolet radiation, and their impacts for the region and for the world.Written certification has been obtained from the ACIA leadership and all lead authors to the effect that the final scientific report fully reflects their expert views

Microbial community dynamics in the forefield of glaciers

Retreating ice fronts (as a result of a warming climate) expose large expanses of deglaciated forefield, which become colonized by microbes and plants. There has been increasing interest in characterizing the biogeochemical development of these ecosystems using a chronosequence approach. Prior to the establishment of plants, microbes use autochthonously produced and allochthonously delivered nutrients for growth. The microbial community composition is largely made up of heterotrophic microbes (both bacteria and fungi), autotrophic microbes and nitrogen-fixing diazotrophs. Microbial activity is thought to be responsible for the initial build-up of labile nutrient pools, facilitating the growth of higher order plant life in developed soils. However, it is unclear to what extent these ecosystems rely on external sources of nutrients such as ancient carbon pools and periodic nitrogen deposition. Furthermore, the seasonal variation of chronosequence dynamics and the effect of winter are largely unexplored. Modelling this ecosystem will provide a quantitative evaluation of the key processes and could guide the focus of future research. Year-round datasets combined with novel metagenomic techniques will help answer some of the pressing questions in this relatively new but rapidly expanding field, which is of growing interest in the context of future large-scale ice retreat

Automated ice-tethered profilers for seawater observations under pack ice in all seasons

Author Posting. © American Meteorological Society, 2008. This article is posted here by permission of American Meteorological Society for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology 25 (2008): 2091-2105, doi:10.1175/2008JTECHO587.1.An automated, easily deployed Ice-Tethered Profiler (ITP) instrument system, developed for deployment on perennial sea ice in the polar oceans to measure changes in upper ocean water properties in all seasons, is described, and representative data from prototype instruments are presented. The ITP instrument consists of three components: a surface subsystem that sits atop an ice floe; a weighted, plastic-jacketed wire-rope tether of arbitrary length (up to 800 m) suspended from the surface element; and an instrumented underwater unit that employs a traction drive to profile up and down the wire tether. ITPs profile the water column at a programmed sampling interval; after each profile, the underwater unit transfers two files holding oceanographic and engineering data to the surface unit using an inductive modem and from the surface instrument to a shore-based data server using an Iridium transmitter. The surface instrument also accumulates battery voltage readings, buoy temperature data, and locations from a GPS receiver at a specified interval (usually every hour) and transmits those data daily. Oceanographic and engineering data are processed, displayed, and made available in near–real time (available online at http://www.whoi.edu/itp). Six ITPs were deployed in the Arctic Ocean between 2004 and 2006 in the Beaufort gyre with various programmed sampling schedules of two to six one-way traverses per day between 10- and 750–760-m depth, providing more than 5300 profiles in all seasons (as of July 2007). The acquired CTD profile data document interesting spatial variations in the major water masses of the Canada Basin, show the double-diffusive thermohaline staircase that lies above the warm, salty Atlantic layer, measure seasonal surface mixed layer deepening, and document several mesoscale eddies. Augmenting the systems already deployed and to replace expiring systems, an international array of more than one dozen ITPs will be deployed as part of the Arctic Observing Network during the International Polar Year (IPY) period (2007–08) holding promise for more valuable real-time upper ocean observations for operational needs, to support studies of ocean processes, and to facilitate numerical model initialization and validation.Initial development of the ITP concept was supported by the Cecil H. and Ida M. Green Technology Innovation Program. Funding for construction and deployment of the prototype ITPs was provided by the National Science Foundation Oceanographic Technology and Interdisciplinary Coordination (OTIC) Program and Office of Polar Programs (OPP) under Grant OCE-0324233. Continued support has been provided by the OPP Arctic Sciences Section under Awards ARC-0519899 and ARC-0631951, and internal WHOI funding

Is subarctic forest advance able to keep pace with climate change?

Recent climate warming and scenarios for further warming have led to expectations of rapid movement of ecological boundaries. Here we focus on the circumarctic forest-tundra ecotone (FTE), which represents an important bioclimatic zone with feedbacks from forest advance and corresponding tundra disappearance (up to 50% loss predicted this century) driving widespread ecological and climatic changes. We address FTE advance and climate history relations over the 20th century, using FTE response data from 151 sites across the circumarctic area and site-specific climate data. Specifically, we investigate spatial uniformity of FTE advance, statistical associations with 20th century climate trends, and whether advance rates match climate change velocities (CCVs). Study sites diverged into four regions (Eastern Canada; Central and Western Canada and Alaska; Siberia; and Western Eurasia) based on their climate history, although all were characterized by similar qualitative patterns of behaviour (with about half of the sites showing advancing behaviour). The main associations between climate trend variables and behaviour indicate the importance of precipitation rather than temperature for both qualitative and quantitative behaviours, and the importance of non-growing season as well as growing season months. Poleward latitudinal advance rates differed significantly among regions, being smallest in Eastern Canada (~10 m/year) and largest in Western Eurasia (~100 m/year). These rates were 1-2 orders of magnitude smaller than expected if vegetation distribution remained in equilibrium with climate. The many biotic and abiotic factors influencing FTE behaviour make poleward advance rates matching predicted 21st century CCVs (~103 -104  m/year) unlikely. The lack of empirical evidence for swift forest relocation and the discrepancy between CCV and FTE response contradict equilibrium model-based assumptions and warrant caution when assessing global-change-related biotic and abiotic implications, including land-atmosphere feedbacks and carbon sequestration.Funding was provided by the Norwegian Research Council (grants 176065/S30, 185023/S50, 160022/F40 and 244557/RI), the Government of Canada Program for International Polar Year, the US National Science Foundation, and the University of Cambridge

A pan-arctic evaluation of changes in river discharge during the latter half of the 20th century

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2006. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Geophysical Research Letters 33 (2006): L06715, doi:10.1029/2006GL025753.Several recent publications have documented changes in river discharge from arctic and subarctic watersheds. Comparison of these findings, however, has been hampered by differences in time periods and methods of analysis. Here we compare changes in discharge from different regions of the pan-arctic watershed using identical time periods and analytical methods. Discharge to the Arctic Ocean increased by 5.6 km3/y/y during 1964-2000, the net result of a large increase from Eurasia moderated by a small decrease from North America. In contrast, discharge to Hudson/James/Ungava Bays decreased by 2.5 km3/y/y during 1964-2000. While this evaluation identifies an overall increase in discharge (~120 km3/y greater discharge at the end of the time period as compared to the beginning for Hudson/James/Unvaga Bays and the Arctic Ocean combined), the contrasting regional trends also highlight the need to understand the consequences of adding/removing freshwater from particular regions of the arctic and subarctic oceans.This work was supported by the Arctic System Science Program of the National Science Foundation (NSF-OPP-0229302, NSF-OPP-0230211, NSF-OPP-0519840) and by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NA17RJ2612)

Using species attributes to characterize late-glacial and early-Holocene environments at Kråkenes, western Norway

Aim: We aim to use species attributes such as distributions and indicator values to reconstruct past biomes, environment, and temperatures from detailed plant‐macrofossil data covering the late glacial to the early Holocene (ca. 14–9 ka). Location: Kråkenes, western Norway. Methods: We applied attributes for present‐day geographical distribution, optimal July and January temperatures, and Ellenberg indicator values for plants in the macrofossil data‐set. We used assemblage weighted means (AWM) to reconstruct past biomes, changes in light (L), nitrogen (N), moisture (F), and soil reaction (R), and temperatures. We compared the temperature reconstructions with previous chironomid‐inferred temperatures. Results: After the start of the Holocene around 11.5 ka, the Arctic‐montane biome, which was stable during the late‐glacial period, shifted successively into the Boreo‐arctic montane, Wide‐boreal, Boreo‐montane, Boreo‐temperate, and Wide‐temperate biomes by ca. 9.0 ka. Circumpolar and Eurasian floristic elements characteristic of the late‐glacial decreased and the Eurosiberian element became prominent. Light demand (L), soil moisture (F), nitrogen (N), and soil reaction (R) show different, but complementary responses. Light‐demanding plants decreased with time. Soil moisture was relatively stable until it increased during organic soil development during the early Holocene. Soil nitrogen increased during the early Holocene. Soil reaction (pH) decreased during the Allerød, but increased during the Younger Dryas. It decreased markedly after the start of the Holocene, reaching low but stable levels in the early Holocene. Mean July and January temperatures show similar patterns to the chironomid‐inferred mean July temperature trends at Kråkenes, but chironomids show larger fluctuations and interesting differences in timing. Conclusion: Assigning attributes to macrofossil species is a useful new approach in palaeoecology. It can demonstrate changes in biomes, ecological conditions, and temperatures. The late‐glacial to early‐Holocene transition may form an analogue for changes observed in the modern arctic and in mountains, with melting glaciers, permafrost thaw, and shrub encroachment into tundra.publishedVersio

Snow cover and extreme winter warming events control flower abundance of some, but not all species in high arctic Svalbard

The High Arctic winter is expected to be altered through ongoing and future climate change. Winter precipitation and snow depth are projected to increase and melt out dates change accordingly. Also, snow cover and depth will play an important role in protecting plant canopy from increasingly more frequent extreme winter warming events. Flower production of many Arctic plants is dependent on melt out timing, since season length determines resource availability for flower preformation. We erected snow fences to increase snow depth and shorten growing season, and counted flowers of six species over 5 years, during which we experienced two extreme winter warming events. Most species were resistant to snow cover increase, but two species reduced flower abundance due to shortened growing seasons. Cassiope tetragona responded strongly with fewer flowers in deep snow regimes during years without extreme events, while Stellaria crassipes responded partly. Snow pack thickness determined whether winter warming events had an effect on flower abundance of some species. Warming events clearly reduced flower abundance in shallow but not in deep snow regimes of Cassiope tetragona, but only marginally for Dryas octopetala. However, the affected species were resilient and individuals did not experience any long term effects. In the case of short or cold summers, a subset of species suffered reduced reproductive success, which may affect future plant composition through possible cascading competition effects. Extreme winter warming events were shown to expose the canopy to cold winter air. The following summer most of the overwintering flower buds could not produce flowers. Thus reproductive success is reduced if this occurs in subsequent years. We conclude that snow depth influences flower abundance by altering season length and by protecting or exposing flower buds to cold winter air, but most species studied are resistant to changes. Winter warming events, often occurring together with rain, can substantially remove snow cover and thereby expose plants to cold winter air. Depending on morphology, different parts of the plant can be directly exposed. On this picture, we see Dryas octopetala seed heads from the previous growing season protrude through the remaining ice layer after a warming event in early 2010. The rest of the plant, including meristems and flower primordia, are still somewhat protected by the ice. In the background we can see a patch of Cassiope tetragona protruding through the ice; in this case, the whole plant including flower primordia is exposed, which might be one reason why this species experienced a loss of flowers the following season. Photograph by Philipp Semenchuk

Carbon turnover in Alaskan tundra soils : effects of organic matter quality, temperature, moisture and fertilizer

Author Posting. © The Author(s), 2006. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Blackwell for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Journal of Ecology 94 (2006): 740-753, doi:10.1111/j.1365-2745.2006.01139.x.Soils of tundra and boreal ecosystems contain large organic matter stocks, typically as a layer of peat that blankets the underlying mineral soil. Despite the low productivity of northern vegetation, organic matter accumulates as peat because decomposition of plant litter is limited by low soil temperatures and often wet, anaerobic conditions (Heal et al. 1981, Jonasson et al. 2001). The total C storage in this northern peat is globally significant, accounting for about one third of the global soil C stock if one includes both tundras and boreal forests (Oechel and Billings 1992, Callaghan et al. 2004a). Soils of northern ecosystems also contain large amounts of organic N that is currently unavailable to plants, but is potentially available and could support higher productivity if mineralized (Shaver et al. 1991, Nadelhoffer et al. 1992, Weintraub and Schimel 2005 a). Controls on soil C stocks and turnover, therefore, are key issues for understanding C exchanges between northern ecosystems and the atmosphere. In this paper, we determine how C losses from peaty soil organic matter are related to its chemical composition, and how that composition changes as the organic matter decomposes. To address these issues we compared four soil organic matter types from three tundra ecosystems near Toolik Lake, Alaska. The comparison included both unfertilized soils and soils that were fertilized annually for eight years before sampling. Under laboratory conditions, we determined how temperature and moisture conditions affect C losses from these organic matter types. The experiment also allowed us to determine how the chemical composition of different types of organic matter changed over four simulated “seasons” of decomposition. The chemical composition or “quality” of soil organic matter is a useful predictor of C turnover (Ågren and Bosatta 1996) although a wide range of definitions and fractionation schemes have been used (Sollins et al. 1999, Harmon and Lajtha 1999). In general, high-quality organic matter is defined as that which is more readily processed by microbes and has a higher rate of decomposition. Fresh plant litter and newly-formed organic matter are expected to be of higher quality than older, more fully decomposed organic matter in which the more labile components have been metabolized (Aerts 1997, Berg 2000). Species composition of the vegetation may also have a strong influence on litter and organic matter “quality” (Berendse 1994, Cornelissen 1996, Hobbie 1996, Hobbie and Gough 2004). In this research we characterized organic matter quality with a widely used sequential extraction procedure (Ryan et al. 1990, Harmon and Lajtha 1999) that breaks soil organic matter into 4 fractions: (1) a “non-polar extractable” (NPE) fraction extracted in methylene chloride, (2) a “water-soluble” (WS) fraction extracted in boiling water, (3) an “acid-soluble’ (AS) fraction extracted in H2SO4, and (4) an “acid-insoluble” (AIS) residue.This research was supported by grants from the US National Science Foundation’s Division of Environmental Biology and Office of Polar Programs to the Marine Biological Laboratory

Identifying key needs for the integration of social‐ecological outcomes in arctic wildlife monitoring

For effective monitoring in social‐ecological systems to meet needs for biodiversity, science, and humans, desired outcomes must be clearly defined and routes from direct to derived outcomes understood. The Arctic is undergoing rapid climatic, ecological, social, and economic changes and requires effective wildlife monitoring to meet diverse stakeholder needs. To identify stakeholder priorities concerning desired outcomes of arctic wildlife monitoring, we conducted in‐depth interviews with 29 arctic scientists, policy and decision makers, and representatives of Indigenous organizations and NGOs. Using qualitative content analysis, we identified and defined desired outcomes and documented links between outcomes. Using network analysis, we investigated the structure of perceived links between desired outcomes. We identified 18 desired outcomes from monitoring and classified them as either driven by monitoring information, monitoring process, or a combination of both. Highly cited outcomes were make decisions, conserve, detect change, disseminate, and secure food. These reflect key foci of arctic monitoring. Infrequently cited outcomes (e.g., govern) were emerging themes. Three modules comprised our outcome network. The modularity highlighted the low strength of perceived links between outcomes that were information driven or primarily information driven (e.g., detect change, make decisions, conserve or secure food) and process driven and derived outcomes (e.g., cooperate, learn, educate). The outcomes expand monitoring community and disseminate created connections between these modules. We identified key desired outcomes from monitoring that are widely applicable to social‐ecological systems within and outside the Arctic, particularly those with wildlife subsistence economies. Attributes and motivations associated with outcomes can guide future development of integrated monitoring goals for biodiversity conservation and human needs. Our results demonstrate the disconnect between information and process driven goals and how expanding the monitoring community and better integrating monitoring stakeholders will help connect information derived and process derived outcomes for effective ecosystem stewardship

The influence of atmospheric circulation on the spatial diversity of air temperature in the area of Forlandsundet (NW Spitsbergen) during 2010–2013

The relationship between atmospheric circulation and climate in Svalbard has been described in dozens of studies. However, the data used for that purpose usually came from permanent stations on the coast. The influence of atmospheric circulation on topoclimatic diversity has not been explored so often, and hardly at all for other periods than the Arctic summer. In this article, the relationships between circulation and air temperature are described using daily data sourced from six sites located around Forlandsundet (NW Spitsbergen) during 2010–2013. The analysis was conducted independently for three seasons identified as: winter (Nov–Mar), spring/autumn (Apr–May and Sep–Oct) and summer (Jun–Aug) and also for three air temperature parameters: diurnal mean (Ti), maximum (Tmax) and minimum (Tmin) temperature. The atmospheric circulation in the studied area was described using Tadeusz Niedźwiedź’s classification of diurnal circulation types for Svalbard. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the spatial pattern of air temperature is not uniform across the Forlandsundet region; in particular, important differences were observed between coastal and inland parts of the study area. Thus, generalization of relationships between air temperature and atmospheric circulation for the entire area of Spitsbergen based on data only from coastal stations is not appropriate. The influence of atmospheric circulation on the spatial pattern of air temperature in the Forlandsundet region also changes through the year. In the cold season (Sep–May) it differs significantly from that observed in summer (Jun–Aug), and this feature is also seen in analyses of the 10% highest (≥ 90th percentile) and lowest (≤ 10th percentile) thermal differences. In summer, the influence of atmospheric circulation on air temperature in the topoclimatic scale is definitely less stable than in the cold season