Invasive alien species in the food chain : advancing risk assessment models to address climate change, economics and uncertainty

Economic globalization depends on the movement of people and goods between countries. As these exchanges increase, so does the potential for translocation of harmful pests, weeds, and pathogens capable of impacting our crops, livestock and natural resources (Hulme 2009), with concomitant impacts on global food security (Cook et al. 2011)

Objective functions for comparing simulations with insect trap catch data

Targeted surveillance of high risk invasion sites using insect traps is becoming an important tool in border biosecurity, aiding in early detection and subsequent monitoring of eradication attempts. The mark-release-recapture technique is widely used to study the dispersal of insects, and to generate unbiased estimates of population density. It may also be used in the biosecurity context to quantify the efficacy of surveillance and eradication monitoring systems. Marked painted apple moths were released at three different locations in Auckland, New Zealand over six weeks during a recent eradication campaign. The results of the mark-release-recapture experiment were used to parameterise a process-based mechanistic dispersal model in order to understand the moth dispersal pattern in relation to wind patterns, and to provide biosecurity agencies with an ability to predict moth dispersal patterns. A genetic algorithm was used to fit some model parameters. Different objective functions were tested: 1) Cohen’s Kappa test, 2) the sum of squared difference on trap catches, 3) the sum of squared difference weighted by distance from the release site, 4) the sum of squared difference weighted on distance between best-fit paired data. The genetic algorithm proved to be a powerful fitting method, but the model results were highly dependant on the objective function used. Objective functions for fitting spatial data need to characterise spatial patterns as well as density (ie. recapture rate). For fitting stochastic models to datasets derived from stochastic spatial processes, objective functions need to accommodate the fact that a perfect fit is practically impossible, even if the models are the same. Applied on mark-release-recapture data, the Cohen’s Kappa test and the sum of squared difference on trap catches captured respectively the distance component of the spatial pattern and the density component adequately but failed to capture both requirements whereas the sum of squared difference weighted by distance from the release site did. However, in order to integrate the stochastic error generated by the model underlying stochastic process, only the sum of squared difference weighted on distance between best-fit paired data was adequate. The relevance of each of the fitting methods is detailed, and their respective strengths and weaknesses are discussed in relation to their ability to capture the spatial patterns of insect recaptures

Oriented rotational wave-packet dynamics studies via high harmonic generation

We produce oriented rotational wave packets in CO and measure their characteristics via high harmonic generation. The wavepacket is created using an intense, femtosecond laser pulse and its second harmonic. A delayed 800 nm pulse probes the wave packet, generating even-order high harmonics that arise from the broken symmetry induced by the orientation dynamics. The even-order harmonic radiation that we measure appears on a zero background, enabling us to accurately follow the temporal evolution of the wave packet. Our measurements reveal that, for the conditions optimum for harmonic generation, the orientation is produced by preferential ionization which depletes the sample of molecules of one orientation

Optical properties of silicon-implanted polycrystalline diamond membranes

We investigate the optical properties of polycrystalline diamond membranes containing silicon-vacancy (SiV) color centers in combination with other nano-analytical techniques. We analyze the correlation between the Raman signal, the SiV emission, and the background luminescence in the crystalline grains and in the grain boundaries, identifying conditions for the addressability of single SiV centers. Moreover, we perform a scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) analysis, which associates the microscopic structure of the membranes and the evolution of the diamond crystal along the growth direction with the photoluminescence properties, as well as a time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry (ToF-SIMS) to address the distribution of silicon in implanted and un-implanted membranes. The results of the STEM and ToF-SIMS studies are consistent with the outcome of the optical measurements and provide useful insight into the preparation of polycrystalline samples for quantum nano-optics.Comment: 21 pages, 8 figure

Prognostic value of discharge heart rate in acute heart failure patients: more relevant in atrial fibrillation?

[Abstract] Aims. The prognostic impact of heart rate (HR) in acute heart failure (AHF) patients is not well known especially in atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. The aim of the study was to evaluate the impact of admission HR, discharge HR, HR difference (admission-discharge) in AHF patients with sinus rhythm (SR) or AF on long- term outcomes. Methods. We included 1398 patients consecutively admitted with AHF between October 2013 and December 2014 from a national multicentre, prospective registry. Logistic regression models were used to estimate the association between admission HR, discharge HR and HR difference and one- year all-cause mortality and HF readmission. Results. The mean age of the study population was 72 ± 12 years. Of these, 594 (42.4%) were female, 655 (77.8%) were hypertensive and 655 (46.8%) had diabetes. Among all included patients, 745 (53.2%) had sinus rhythm and 653 (46.7%) had atrial fibrillation. Only discharge HR was associated with one year all-cause mortality (Relative risk (RR) = 1.182, confidence interval (CI) 95% 1.024–1.366, p = 0.022) in SR. In AF patients discharge HR was associated with one year all cause mortality (RR = 1.276, CI 95% 1.115–1.459, p ≤ 0.001). We did not observe a prognostic effect of admission HR or HRD on long-term outcomes in both groups. This relationship is not dependent on left ventricular ejection fraction. Conclusions. In AHF patients lower discharge HR, neither the admission nor the difference, is associated with better long-term outcomes especially in AF patients

Anisotropy and chemical composition of ultra-high energy cosmic rays using arrival directions measured by the Pierre Auger Observatory

The Pierre Auger Collaboration has reported evidence for anisotropy in the distribution of arrival directions of the cosmic rays with energies $E>E_{th}=5.5\times 10^{19}$ eV. These show a correlation with the distribution of nearby extragalactic objects, including an apparent excess around the direction of Centaurus A. If the particles responsible for these excesses at $E>E_{th}$ are heavy nuclei with charge $Z$, the proton component of the sources should lead to excesses in the same regions at energies $E/Z$. We here report the lack of anisotropies in these directions at energies above $E_{th}/Z$ (for illustrative values of $Z=6,\ 13,\ 26$). If the anisotropies above $E_{th}$ are due to nuclei with charge $Z$, and under reasonable assumptions about the acceleration process, these observations imply stringent constraints on the allowed proton fraction at the lower energies

Update on the correlation of the highest energy cosmic rays with nearby extragalactic matter

Data collected by the Pierre Auger Observatory through 31 August 2007 showed evidence for anisotropy in the arrival directions of cosmic rays above the Greisen-Zatsepin-Kuz'min energy threshold, \nobreak{$6\times 10^{19}$eV}. The anisotropy was measured by the fraction of arrival directions that are less than $3.1^\circ$ from the position of an active galactic nucleus within 75 Mpc (using the V\'eron-Cetty and V\'eron $12^{\rm th}$ catalog). An updated measurement of this fraction is reported here using the arrival directions of cosmic rays recorded above the same energy threshold through 31 December 2009. The number of arrival directions has increased from 27 to 69, allowing a more precise measurement. The correlating fraction is $(38^{+7}_{-6})$, compared with $21$ expected for isotropic cosmic rays. This is down from the early estimate of $(69^{+11}_{-13})$. The enlarged set of arrival directions is examined also in relation to other populations of nearby extragalactic objects: galaxies in the 2 Microns All Sky Survey and active galactic nuclei detected in hard X-rays by the Swift Burst Alert Telescope. A celestial region around the position of the radiogalaxy Cen A has the largest excess of arrival directions relative to isotropic expectations. The 2-point autocorrelation function is shown for the enlarged set of arrival directions and compared to the isotropic expectation.Comment: Accepted for publication in Astroparticle Physics on 31 August 201

Advanced functionality for radio analysis in the Offline software framework of the Pierre Auger Observatory

The advent of the Auger Engineering Radio Array (AERA) necessitates the development of a powerful framework for the analysis of radio measurements of cosmic ray air showers. As AERA performs "radio-hybrid" measurements of air shower radio emission in coincidence with the surface particle detectors and fluorescence telescopes of the Pierre Auger Observatory, the radio analysis functionality had to be incorporated in the existing hybrid analysis solutions for fluoresence and surface detector data. This goal has been achieved in a natural way by extending the existing Auger Offline software framework with radio functionality. In this article, we lay out the design, highlights and features of the radio extension implemented in the Auger Offline framework. Its functionality has achieved a high degree of sophistication and offers advanced features such as vectorial reconstruction of the electric field, advanced signal processing algorithms, a transparent and efficient handling of FFTs, a very detailed simulation of detector effects, and the read-in of multiple data formats including data from various radio simulation codes. The source code of this radio functionality can be made available to interested parties on request.Comment: accepted for publication in NIM A, 13 pages, minor corrections to author list and references in v

Search for First Harmonic Modulation in the Right Ascension Distribution of Cosmic Rays Detected at the Pierre Auger Observatory

We present the results of searches for dipolar-type anisotropies in different energy ranges above $2.5\times 10^{17}$ eV with the surface detector array of the Pierre Auger Observatory, reporting on both the phase and the amplitude measurements of the first harmonic modulation in the right-ascension distribution. Upper limits on the amplitudes are obtained, which provide the most stringent bounds at present, being below 2% at 99% $C.L.$ for EeV energies. We also compare our results to those of previous experiments as well as with some theoretical expectations.Comment: 28 pages, 11 figure