Non-Linear Identification of Judgmental Forecasts Effects at SKU-Level

Prediction of demand is a key component within supply chain management. Im- proved accuracy in forecasts affects directly all levels of the supply chain, reduc- ing stock costs and increasing customer satisfaction. In many application areas, demand prediction relies on statistical software which provides an initial forecast subsequently modified by the expert’s judgment. This paper outlines a new method- ology based on State Dependent Parameter (SDP) estimation techniques to identify the non-linear behaviour of such managerial adjustments. This non-parametric SDP estimate is used as a guideline to propose a non-linear model that corrects the bias introduced by the managerial adjustments. One-step-ahead forecasts of SKU sales sampled monthly from a manufacturing company are utilized to test the proposed methodology. The results indicate that adjustments introduce a non-linear pattern undermining accuracy. This understanding can be used to enhance the design of the Forecasting Support System in order to help forecasters towards more efficient judgmental adjustments

La "seca" de olivos jóvenes II: identificación y patogenicidad de los hongos asociados con podredumbres radicales

This work deals with the identification of fungal isolates associated with root rot, the major factor included in the «drying and death syndrome» («seca») of young olive trees in Andalucía, southern Spain. Fungi associated with damping-off in olive tree nurseries were also identified. Several isolates from every fungal species were tested for pathogenicity in nursery plants and rooted cuttings of olive cultivar 'Picual'. Pathogenicity tests demonstrated that five fungal species -Cylindrocarpon destructans, Phytophthora megasperma, P. palmivora, Pythium irregulare and Sclerotium rolfsii- were clearly pathogenic to olive trees and reproduced symptoms of root rot and foliar wilting. Other fungal species associated with root rot of olive trees in the field or in the nurseries, including Fusarium acuminatum, F. eumartii, F. oxysporum, F. solani, Macrophomina phaseolina and Rhizoctonia solani, were weakly or not pathogenic. Pathogenicity of Phytophthora megasperma, P. palmivora and Pythium irregulare depended on soil water content, since isolates tested only caused extensive root rot and sudden plant death when the soil was continuously waterlogged. The high frequency of P. megasperma (part I) and its dependence for pathogenicity on soil water content suggest that this pathogen may play an important role in the well known sensitivity of young olive trees to «root asphyxiation».En este trabajo se han identificado los aislados fúngicos asociados a las podredumbres radiculares de olivo, el factor más importante incluido bajo la denominación genérica de «seca» de olivos jóvenes en Andalucía, así como los aislados asociados a la muerte de plántulas («damping-off») en viveros de olivo. La patogenicidad de aislados seleccionados de cada especie fúngica se evaluó en plantones y estaquillas enraizadas de olivo del cultivar «Picual», en condiciones parcialmente controladas. De todas las especies ensayadas, cinco mostraron claramente su patogenicidad en olivo: Cylindrocarpon destructans, Phytophthora megasperma, P. palmivora, Pythium irregulare y Sclerotium rolfsii, reproduciendo los síntomas de podredumbre radicular y marchitez foliar en las plantas inoculadas. Otras especies asociadas a podredumbres radiculares en campo y vivero {Fusarium acuminatum, F. eumartii, F. oxysporum, F. solani, Macrophomina phaseolina y Rhizoctonia solani) resultaron débilmente o nada patogénicas. La patogenicidad de Phytophthora megasperma, P. palmivora y Pythium irregulare resultó dependiente del contenido hídrico del suelo, ya que los aislados ensayados sólo causaron necrosis extensas del sistema radicular y muerte de las plantas inoculadas en condiciones de saturación continua del suelo. La elevada frecuencia de aislamiento de Phytophthora megasperma en suelos encharcados (parte I) y su dependencia patogénica del exceso de agua en el suelo sugieren que este hongo puede jugar un papel importante en la generalmente aceptada sensibilidad de los olivos jóvenes a la «asfixia radicular»

La seca de encinas y alcornoques en Andalucía : decaimiento y enfermedad

El decaimiento forestal es una enfermedad de etiología compleja, resultado de la acción de un número variable de factores bióticos y abióticos que causan un deterioro gradual y general de los árboles afectados, hasta su muerte. Los factores implicados en el decaimiento de los Quercus en Andalucía son factores predisponentes de tipo selvícola, alteraciones climáticas como factor incitante, y plagas y enfermedades como factores contribuyentes. Entre las enfermedades implicadas en Seca de los Quercus destacan, por orden de importancia, la podredumbre radical causada por Phytophthora cinnamomi, los chancros de tronco y ramas causados por Botryosphaeria spp. y el chancro carbonoso causado por Biscogniauxia mediterranea. No obstante, las dos primeras enfermedades tienen una especial incidencia en distintas zonas de Andalucía de forma independiente, no asociadas al decaimiento. En el presente artículo se exponen las medidas de control disponibles contra estas enfermedades de los Quercus y se plantea la necesidad de disponer de un diagnóstico preciso en cada caso para abordar dicho control con garantías, ya que no cabe encontrar soluciones únicas que resulten eficaces con independencia de la naturaleza del problema._____________________________________The forestry decline is a complex disease, as a result of the action of a changeable number of biotic and abiotic factors that cause a gradual and general deterioration of the affected trees, until their death. The factors involved in the Quercus decline in Andalusia are predisposing factors like silvic, climatic alterations as inciting factor, and insect pest and diseases as contributing factors. Between the diseases involved in oak decline stand out, in order of importance, the root roting caused by Phytophthora cinnamomi, the chancres of trunk and branches caused by Botryosphaeria spp. and the charcoal canker caused by Biscogniauxia mediterranea. Nevertheless, the first two diseases have a special effect on different zones of Andalusia in different ways, not associated with the decay. In this article we expose the available tools of disease control. We emphasizes the need of having a precise diagnosis in every case to approach the control with guarantees, since there is no chance of finding only one efficient solution regardless of the nature of the problem

Heterologous expression of AtNPR1 gene in olive for increasing fungal tolerance

The NPR1 gene encodes a key component of SAR signaling mediated by salicylic acid (SA). After a pathogen infection, the accumulation of SA releases NPR1 monomers in the cytosol that are translocated to the nucleus, activating the expression of pathogenesis-related (PR) genes. Overexpression of NPR1 has conferred resistance to fungal, viral and bacterial pathogens in several plant species. The aim of this research was to generate transgenic olive plants expressing the gene AtNPR1 from Arabidopsis thaliana to obtain material resistant to fungal pathogens. Three transgenic lines expressing AtNPR1 gene under the control of the constitutive promoter CaMV35S were obtained following the protocol of Torreblanca et al. (2010), using an embryogenic line derived from a seed of cv. Picual. Level of AtNPR1 expression in transgenic calli varied greatly among the different lines, being higher in the line NPR1-780. The elicitation of embryogenic calli in liquid medium with AS did not increase endochitinase activity, a PR protein. However, jasmonic acid induced a transient increase in chitinase activity after 24 h of treatment in all the lines, being the increment higher in transgenic NPR1 than in control. After maturation and germination of transgenic somatic embryos, plants were micropropagated and acclimated to ex vitro conditions. The expression of AtNPR1 did not alter the growth of transgenic plants neither in vitro nor in the greenhouse. Experiments are in progress to determine the resistance of transgenic AtNPR1 plants to V. dalihae and R. necatrix.Universidad de Málaga. Campus de Excelencia Internacional Andalucía Tech. Research projects: Plan Nacional AGL2014-52518-C2-1-R; AGL2017-83368-C2-1-R and Junta de Andalucía P11-AGR799

EQUIPT: protocol of a comparative effectiveness research study evaluating cross-context transferability of economic evidence on tobacco control

This is an Open Access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution Non Commercial (CC BY-NC 4.0) license, which permits others to distribute, remix, adapt, build upon this work non-commercially, and license their derivative works on different terms, provided the original work is properly cited and the use is non-commercial.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Tobacco smoking claims 700 000 lives every year in Europe and the cost of tobacco smoking in the EU is estimated between €98 and €130 billion annually; direct medical care costs and indirect costs such as workday losses each represent half of this amount. Policymakers all across Europe are in need of bespoke information on the economic and wider returns of investing in evidence-based tobacco control, including smoking cessation agendas. EQUIPT is designed to test the transferability of one such economic evidence base-the English Tobacco Return on Investment (ROI) tool-to other EU member states

Comentario urgente sobre la reforma penal vial y otros aspectos controvertidos

Aborda a reforma penal espanhola referente à segurança no trânsito. Tece comentários críticos quanto à introdução do crime de fuga e de dois tipos de formas concorrentes incluídos no escopo de crimes de homicídio e lesão cometidos com grave imprudência ou negligência. Evidencia a falta de uma proposta de política criminal mais racional, reflexiva e punitiva

La regulación del error en el Código Penal de Nicaragua

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/derecho.v0i12.1002 Revista de Derecho No.12 2009 pp.11-58 DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5377/derecho.v0i12.1002 Revista de Derecho No.12 2009 pp.11-5

Cost-effectiveness of Alzheimer's disease CSF biomarkers and amyloid-PET in early-onset cognitive impairment diagnosis

This study aimed at determining the cost-effectiveness of amyloid-positron emission tomography (PET) compared to Alzheimer's disease (AD) cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) biomarkers (amyloid-?42, total-Tau and phosphorylated-Tau) for the diagnosis of AD in patients with early-onset cognitive impairment. A decision tree model using a national health care perspective was developed to compare the costs and effectiveness associated with Amyloid-PET and AD CSF biomarkers. Available evidence from the literature and primary data from Hospital Clínic de Barcelona were used to inform the model and calculate the efficiency of these diagnostic alternatives. Medical visits and diagnostic procedures were considered and reported in €2020. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to measure the cost per % of correct diagnoses detected and we perform one-way deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the uncertainty of these results. Compared with AD CSF biomarkers, Amyloid-PET resulted in 7.40% more correctly diagnosed cases of AD, with an incremental total mean cost of €146,854.80 per 100 cases. We found a 50% of probability that Amyloid-PET was cost-effective for a willingness to pay (WTP) of €19,840.39 per correct case detected. Using a WTP of €75,000, the probability that it is cost-effective reached a maximum of 76.9%, thus leading to a conclusion that Amyloid-PET is not a cost-effective technique compared to AD CSF biomarkers, unless the funder is willing to pay a minimum of €19,840.39 to detect one more correct case. Furthermore, obtaining CSF provides simultaneous information on amyloid ? and tau biomarkers and allows other biomarkers to be analyzed at a relatively low cost.© 2022. The Author(s), under exclusive licence to Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany

Surgical ciliated cyst of the maxilla. Clinical case

Surgical ciliated cyst is uncommon in Western countries but frequently reported in Asian populations as a delayed complication of surgery, with inclusion in the bone of nasal or sinus mucosa. Isolated cases have also been reported in the mandible after orthognathic surgery. We report a case in the maxillary region three years after radical sinus surgery for chronic sinusitis. Intraoral examination revealed a small painless tumefaction with no color change in the surrounding tissues. Computed tomography demonstrated a well-defined intraosseous lesion lateral to the maxillary sinus. The lesion was completely excised, when histology demonstrated a pseudostratified ciliated epithelial lining. Differential diagnosis from other lesions such as an odontogenic keratocyst or inflammatory cyst were also made. This case report,uncommon in Western countries, of a surgical ciliated cyst illustrates the need for a meticulous surgical technique, proper management of complications, and routine, long-term follow-up of patients undergoing any type of sinus surgery

Genetic diversity and population structure of Ascochyta rabiei from the western Iranian Ilam and Kermanshah provinces using MAT and SSR markers

Knowledge of genetic diversity in A. rabiei provides different levels of information that are important in the management of crop germplasm resources. Gene flow on a regional level indicates a significant potential risk for the regional spread of novel alleles that might contribute to fungicide resistance or the breakdown of resistance genes. Simple sequence repeat (SSR) and mating type (MAT) markers were used to determine the genetic structure, and estimate genetic diversity and the prevalence of mating types in 103 Ascochyta rabiei isolates from seven counties in the Ilam and Kermanshah provinces of western Iran (Ilam, Aseman abad, Holaylan, Chardavol, Dareh shahr, Gilangharb, and Sarpul). A set of 3 microsatellite primer pairs revealed a total of 75 alleles; the number of alleles varied from 15 to 34 for each marker. A high level of genetic variability was observed among A. rabiei isolates in the region. Genetic diversity was high (He = 0.788) within populations with corresponding high average gene flow and low genetic distances between populations. The smallest genetic distance was observed between isolates from Ilam and Chardavol. Both mating types were present in all populations, with the majority of the isolates belonging to Mat1-1 (64%), but within populations the proportions of each mating type were not significantly different from 50%. Results from this study will be useful in breeding for Ascochyta blight-resistant cultivars and developing necessary control measures