On the variability of return periods of European winter precipitation extremes over the last five centuries

International audienceWe investigate the changes of extreme European winter (December?February) precipitation over the last half millennium and show for various European regions that return periods of extremely wet and dry winters are subject to significant changes both before and after the onset of anthropogenic influences. Additionally, we examine the spatial pattern of the changes of the extremes covering the last 300 years where data quality is sufficient. Over central and eastern Europe dry winters occurred more frequently during the 18th and the second part of the 19th century relative to 1951?2000. Dry winters were less frequent during both the 18th and 19th century over the British Isles and the Mediterranean. Wet winters have been less abundant during the last three centuries compared to 1951?2000 except during the early 18th century in central Europe. Although winter precipitation extremes are affected by climate change, no obvious connection of these changes was found to solar, volcanic or anthropogenic forcing. However, physically meaningful interpretation with atmospheric circulation changes was possible

The sensitivity of global wildfires to simulated past, present, and future lightning frequency

In this study, components of the Max Planck Institute Earth System Model were used to explore how changes in lightning induced by climate change alter wildfire activity. To investigate how climate change alters global flash frequency, simulations with the atmospheric general circulation model ECHAM6 were performed for the time periods preindustrial, present-day, and three future scenarios. The effect of changes in lightning activity on fire occurrence was derived from simulations with the land surface vegetation model JSBACH. Global cloud-to-ground lightning activity decreased by 3.3% under preindustrial climate and increased by up to 21.3% for the RCP85 projection at the end of the century when compared to present-day, respectively. Relative changes were most pronounced in North America and northeastern Asia. Global burned area was little affected by these changes and only increased by up to 3.3% for RCP85. However, on the regional scale, significant changes occurred. For instance, burned area increases of over 100% were found in high-latitude regions, while also several regions were identified where burned area declined, such as parts of South America and Africa. ©2014. American Geophysical Union. All Rights Reserved

Separable Image Warping with Spatial Lookup Tables

Image warping refers to the 2-D resampling of a source image onto a target image. In the general case, this requires costly 2-D filtering operations. Simplifications are possible when the warp can be expressed as a cascade of orthogonall-D transformations. In these cases, separable transformations have been introduced to realize large performance gains. The central ideas in this area were formulated in the 2-pass algorithm by Catmull and Smith. Although that method applies over an important class of transformations, there are intrinsic problems which limit its usefulness. The goal of this work is to extend the 2-pass approach to handle arbitrary spatial mapping functions. We address the difficulties intrinsic to 2-pass scanline algorithms: bottlenecking, foldovers, and the lack of closed-form inverse solutions. These problems are shown to be resolved in a general, efficient, separable technique, with graceful degradation for transformations of increasing complexity

Via Hexagons to Squares in Ferrofluids: Experiments on Hysteretic Surface Transformations under Variation of the Normal Magnetic Field

We report on different surface patterns on magnetic liquids following the Rosensweig instability. We compare the bifurcation from the flat surface to a hexagonal array of spikes with the transition to squares at higher fields. From a radioscopic mapping of the surface topography we extract amplitudes and wavelengths. For the hexagon--square transition, which is complex because of coexisting domains, we tailor a set of order parameters like peak--to--peak distance, circularity, angular correlation function and pattern specific amplitudes from Fourier space. These measures enable us to quantify the smooth hysteretic transition. Voronoi diagrams indicate a pinning of the domains. Thus the smoothness of the transition is roughness on a small scale.Comment: 17 pages, 14 figure

Late quaternary climate, precipitation δ18O, and Indian monsoon variations over the Tibetan Plateau

The Himalaya–Tibet orogen contains one of the largest modern topographic and climate gradients on Earth. Proxy data from the region provide a basis for understanding Tibetan Plateau paleo climate and paleo elevation reconstructions. Paleo climate model comparisons to proxy data compliment sparsely located data and can improve climate reconstructions. This study investigates temporal changes in precipitation, temperature and precipitation δ18O(δ18Op) over the Himalaya–Tibet from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to present. We conduct a series of atmospheric General Circulation Model (GCM, ECHAM5-wiso) experiments at discrete time slices including a Pre-industrial (PI, Pre-1850 AD), Mid Holocene (MH, 6 ka BP) and LGM (21 ka BP) simulations. Model predictions are compared with existing proxy records. Model results show muted climate changes across the plateau during the MH and larger changes occurring during the LGM. During the LGM surface temperatures are ∼2.0–4.0◦C lower across the Himalaya and Tibet, and >5.0◦C lower at the northwest and northeast edge of the Tibetan Plateau. LGM mean annual precipitation is 200–600 mm/yr lower over on the Tibetan Plateau. Model and proxy data comparison shows a good agreement for the LGM, but large differences for the MH. Large differences are also present between MH proxy studies near each other. The precipitation weighted annual mean δ18Op lapse rate at the Himalaya is about 0.4h/km larger during the MH and 0.2h/km smaller during the LGM than during the PI. Finally, rainfall associated with the continental Indian monsoon (between 70◦E–110◦E and 10◦N–30◦N) is about 44% less in the LGM than during PI times. The LGM monsoon period is about one month shorter than in PI times. Taken together, these results document significant spatial and temporal changes in temperature, precipitation, and δ18Op over the last ∼21 ka. These changes are large enough to impact interpretations of proxy data and the intensity of the Indian monsoon

Precipitation δ18O over the Himalaya-Tibet orogen from ECHAM5-wiso simulations: Statistical analysis of temperature, topography and precipitation

Variations in oxygen isotope compositions (δ18O) provide insight into modern climate and past changes in climate and topography. In addition, in regions such as Tibet, geologic archives of isotope ratios record climate change driven by plateau uplift and therefore also provide information about the surface uplift history. A good understanding of modern-day controls on δ18O is crucial for interpreting geologic δ18O in this context. We use the ECHAM5-wiso global atmospheric general circulation model to calculate δ18O in precipitation (δ18Op) for the present-day climate. In the region of the Tibetan Plateau, spatial variations of monthly means of δ18Op are statistically related to spatial variations of 2 m air temperature and precipitation rate, as well as to topography. The size and location of investigated regions are varied in our study to capture regional differences in these relationships and the processes governing the modern δ18Op. In addition to correlation analyses, a cross-validated stepwise multiple regression is carried out using δ18Op as the predictand, and topography and atmospheric variables (temperature and precipitation amount) as predictors. The 2 m air temperature and topography yield the highest spatial correlation coefficients of >0.9 and 90% of the δ18Op spatial variance in the same regions. The 2 m air temperature is the dominant predictor and contributes 93.6% to the total explained spatial variance on average. The results demonstrate that most of the δ18Op pattern on and around the Tibetan Plateau can be explained by variation in 2 m air temperature and altitude. Correlation of the dependent predictors indicate that in low-altitude regions where topography does not determine temperature variability, the high correlation of temperature and δ18Op may partially be explained by variations in precipitation rates

Modern precipitation δ18O and trajectory analysis over the Himalaya-Tibet Orogen from ECHAM5-wiso simulations

Variations in oxygen isotope ratios (δ18O) measured from modern precipitation and geologic archives provide a promising tool for understanding modern and past climate dynamics and tracking elevation changes over geologic time. In areas of extreme topography, such as the Tibetan Plateau, the interpretation of δ18O has proven challenging. This study investigates the climate controls on temporal (daily and 6 h intervals) and spatial variations in present-day precipitation δ18O (δ18Op) across the Tibetan Plateau using a 30 year record produced from the European Centre/Hamburg ECHAM5-wiso global atmospheric general circulation model (GCM). Results indicate spatial and temporal agreement between model-predicted δ18Op and observations. Large daily δ18Op variations of 25 to +5‰ occur over the Tibetan Plateau throughout the 30 simulation years, along with interannual δ18Op variations of ~2‰. Analysis of extreme daily δ18Op indicates that extreme low values coincide with extreme highs in precipitation amount. During the summer, monsoon vapor transport from the north and southwest of the plateau generally corresponds with high δ18Op, whereas vapor transport from the Indian Ocean corresponds with average to low δ18Op. Thus, vapor source variations are one important cause of the spatial-temporal differences in δ18Op. Comparison of GCM and Rayleigh Distillation Model (RDM)-predicted δ18Op indicates a modest agreement for the Himalaya region (averaged over 86°–94°E), confirming application of the simpler RDM approach for estimating δ18Op lapse rates across Himalaya

Public engagement with marine climate change issues: (Re)framings, understandings and responses

Climate change impacts on marine environments have been somewhat neglected in climate change research, particularly with regard to their social dimensions and implications. This paper contributes to addressing this gap through presenting a UK focused mixed-method study of how publics frame, understand and respond to marine climate change-related issues. It draws on data from a large national survey of UK publics (N = 1,001), undertaken in January 2011 as part of a wider European survey, in conjunction with in-depth qualitative insights from a citizens’ panel with participants from the East Anglia region, UK. This reveals that discrete marine climate change impacts, as often framed in technical or institutional terms, were not the most immediate or significant issues for most respondents. Study participants tended to view these climate impacts ‘in context’, in situated ways, and as entangled with other issues relating to marine environments and their everyday lives. Whilst making connections with scientific knowledge on the subject, public understandings of marine climate impacts were mainly shaped by personal experience, the visibility and proximity of impacts, sense of personal risk and moral or equity-based arguments. In terms of responses, study participants prioritised climate change mitigation measures over adaptation, even in high-risk areas. We consider the implications of these insights for research and practices of public engagement on marine climate impacts specifically, and climate change more generally