Genome-based prediction of common diseases: methodological considerations for future research

The translation of emerging genomic knowledge into public health and clinical care is one of the major challenges for the coming decades. At the moment, genome-based prediction of common diseases, such as type 2 diabetes, coronary heart disease and cancer, is still not informative. Our understanding of the genetic basis of multifactorial diseases is improving, but the currently identified susceptibility variants contribute only marginally to the development of disease. At the same time, an increasing number of companies are offering personalized lifestyle and health recommendations on the basis of individual genetic profiles. This discrepancy between the limited predictive value and the commercial availability of genetic profiles highlights the need for a critical appraisal of the usefulness of genome-based applications in clinical and public health care. Anticipating the discovery of a large number of genetic variants in the near future, we need to prepare a framework for the design and analysis of studies aiming to evaluate the clinical validity and utility of genetic tests. In this article, we review recent studies on the predictive value of genetic profiling from a methodological perspective and address issues around the choice of the study population, the construction of genetic profiles, the measurement of the predictive value, calibration and validation of prediction models, and assessment of clinical utility. Careful consideration of these issues will contribute to the knowledge base that is needed to identify useful genome-based applications for implementation in clinical and public health practice

Predictive genetic testing for the identification of high-risk groups: a simulation study on the impact of predictive ability

Background: Genetic risk models could potentially be useful in identifying high-risk groups for the prevention of complex diseases. We investigated the performance of this risk stratification strategy by examining epidemiological parameters that impact the predictive ability of risk models.Methods: We assessed sensitivity, specificity, and positive and negative predictive value for all possible risk thresholds that can define high-risk groups and investigated how these measures depend on the frequency of disease in the population, the frequency of the high-risk group, and the discriminative accuracy of the risk model, as assessed by the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC). In a simulation study, we modeled genetic risk scores of 50 genes with equal odds ratios and genotype frequencies, and varied the odds ratios and the disease frequency across scenarios. We also performed a simulation of age-related macular degeneration risk prediction based on published odds ratios and frequencies for six genetic risk variants.Results: We show that when the frequency of the high-risk group was lower than the disease frequency, positive predictive value increased with the AUC but sensitivity remained low. When the frequency of the high-risk group was higher than the disease frequency, sensitivity was high but positive predictive value remained low. When both frequencies were equal, both positive predictive value and sensitivity increased with increasing AUC, but higher AUC was needed to maximize both measures.Conclusions: The performance of risk stratification is strongly determined by the frequency of the high-risk group relative to the frequency of disease in the population. The identification of high-risk groups with appreciable combinations of sensitivity and positive predictive value requires higher AUC

Incremental value of rare genetic variants for the prediction of multifactorial diseases

Background: It is often assumed that rare genetic variants will improve available risk prediction scores. We aimed to estimate the added predictive ability of rare variants for risk prediction of common diseases in hypothetical scenarios.Methods: In simulated data, we constructed risk models with an area under the ROC curve (AUC) ranging between 0.50 and 0.95, to which we added a single variant representing the cumulative frequency and effect (odds ratio, OR) of multiple rare variants. The frequency of the rare variant ranged between 0.0001 and 0.01 and the OR between 2 and 10. We assessed the resulting AUC, increment in AUC, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI), net reclassification improvement (NRI(>0.01)) and categorical NRI. The analyses were illustrated by a simulation of atrial fibrillation risk prediction based on a published clinical risk model.Results: We observed minimal improvement in AUC with the addition of rare variants. All measures increased with the frequency and OR of the variant, but maximum increment in AUC remained below 0.05. Increment in AUC and NRI(>0.01) decreased with higher AUC of the baseline model, w

Using family history information to promote healthy lifestyles and prevent diseases; a discussion of the evidence.

BACKGROUND: A family history, reflecting genetic susceptibility as well as shared environmental and behavioral factors, is an important risk factor for common chronic multifactorial diseases such as cardiovascular diseases, type 2 diabetes and many cancers. DISCUSSION: The purpose of the present paper is to discuss the evidence for the use of family history as a tool for primary prevention of common chronic diseases, in particular for tailored interventions aimed at promoting healthy lifestyles. The following questions are addressed: (1) What is the value of family history information as a determinant of personal disease risk?; (2)How can family history information be used to motivate at-risk individuals to adopt and maintain healthy lifestyles in order to prevent disease?; and (3) What additional studies are needed to assess the potential value of family history information as a tool to promote a healthy lifestyle? SUMMARY: In addition to risk assessment, family history information can be used to personalize health messages, which are potentially more effective in promoting healthy lifestyles than standardized health messages. More research is needed on the evidence for the effectiveness of such a tool.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

<Book Reviews> Ingemar Fagerlind and Lawrence J Saha Education and National Development : A Comparative Perspective

textabstractVarious modeling methods have been proposed to estimate the potential predictive ability of polygenic risk variants that predispose to various common diseases. However, it is unknown whether differences between them affect their conclusions on predictive ability. We reviewed input parameters, assumptions and output of the five most common methods and compared their estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) using hypothetical data representing effect sizes and frequencies of genetic variants, population disease risk and number of variants. To assess the accuracy of the estimated AUCs, we aimed to reproduce the AUCs of published empirical studies. All methods assumed that the combined effect of genetic variants on disease risk followed a multiplicative risk model of independent genetic effects, but they either assumed per allele, per genotype or dominant/recessive effects for the genetic variants. Modeling strategy and input parameters differed. Methods used simulation analysis or analytical formulas with effect sizes quantified by odds ratios (ORs) or relative risks. Estimated AUC values were similar for lower ORs (0.7) due to variants with strong effects, differences in estimated AUCs between methods increased. The simulation methods accurately reproduced the AUC values of empirical studies, but the analytical methods did not. We conclude that despite differences in input parameters, the modeling methods estimate similar AUC for realistic values of the ORs. When one or more variants have stronger effects and AUC values are higher, the simulation methods tend to be more accurate

The role of disease characteristics in the ethical debate on personal genome testing

Background: Companies are currently marketing personal genome tests directly-to-consumer that provide genetic susceptibility testing for a range of multifactorial diseases simultaneously. As these tests comprise multiple risk analyses for multiple diseases, they may be difficult to evaluate. Insight into morally relevant differences between diseases will assist researchers, healthcare professionals, policy-makers and other stakeholders in the ethical evaluation of personal genome tests. Discussion. In this paper, we identify and discuss four disease characteristics - severity, actionability, age of onset, and the somatic/psychiatric nature of disease - and show how these lead to specific ethical issues. By way of illustration, we apply this framework to genetic susceptibility testing for three diseases: type 2 diabetes, age-related macular degeneration and clinical depression. For these three diseases, we point out the ethical issues that are relevant to the question whether it is morally justifiable to offer genetic susceptibility testing to adults or to children or minors, and on what conditions. Summary. We conclude that the ethical evaluation of personal genome tests is challenging, for the ethical issues differ with the diseases tested for. An understanding of the ethical significance of disease characteristics will improve the ethical, legal and societal debate on personal genome testing

Personal genome testing: Test characteristics to clarify the discourse on ethical, legal and societal issues

Background: As genetics technology proceeds, practices of genetic testing have become more heterogeneous: many different types of tests are finding their way to the public in different settings and for a variety of purposes. This diversification is relevant to the discourse on ethical, legal and societal issues (ELSI) surrounding genetic testing, which must evolve to encompass these differences. One important development is the rise of personal genome testing on the basis of genetic profiling: the testing of multiple genetic variants simultaneously for the prediction of common multifactorial diseases. Currently, an increasing number of companies are offering personal genome tests directly to consumers and are spurring ELSI-discussions, which stand in need of clarification. This paper presents a systematic approach to the ELSI-evaluation of personal genome testing for multifactorial diseases along the lines of its test characteristics. Discussion: This paper addresses four test characteristics of personal genome testing: its being a non-targeted type of testing, its high analytical validity, low clinical validity and problematic clinical utility. These characteristics raise their own specific ELSI, for example: non-targeted genetic profiling poses serious problems for information provision and informed consent. Questions about the quantity and quality of the necessary information, as well as about moral responsibilities with regard to the provision of information are therefore becoming central themes within ELSI-discussions of personal genome testing. Further, the current low level of clinical validity of genetic profiles raises questions concerning societal risks and regulatory requirements, whereas simultaneously it causes traditional ELSI-issues of clinical genetics, such as psychological and health risks, discrimination, and stigmatization, to lose part of their relevance. Also, classic notions of clinical utility are challenged by the newer notion of 'personal utility.' Summary: Consideration of test characteristics is essential to any valuable discourse on the ELSI of personal genome testing for multifactorial diseases. Four key characteristics of the test - targeted/non-targeted testing, analytical validity, clinical validity and clinical utility - together determine the applicability and the relevance of ELSI to specific tests. The paper identifies and discusses four areas of interest for the ELSI-debate on personal genome testing: informational problems, risks, regulatory issues, and the notion of personal utility

Simple Risk Model Predicts Incidence of Atrial Fibrillation in a Racially and Geographically Diverse Population: the CHARGE-AF Consortium

BackgroundTools for the prediction of atrial fibrillation (AF) may identify high‐risk individuals more likely to benefit from preventive interventions and serve as a benchmark to test novel putative risk factors.Methods and ResultsIndividual‐level data from 3 large cohorts in the United States (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities [ARIC] study, the Cardiovascular Health Study [CHS], and the Framingham Heart Study [FHS]), including 18 556 men and women aged 46 to 94 years (19% African Americans, 81% whites) were pooled to derive predictive models for AF using clinical variables. Validation of the derived models was performed in 7672 participants from the Age, Gene and Environment—Reykjavik study (AGES) and the Rotterdam Study (RS). The analysis included 1186 incident AF cases in the derivation cohorts and 585 in the validation cohorts. A simple 5‐year predictive model including the variables age, race, height, weight, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, current smoking, use of antihypertensive medication, diabetes, and history of myocardial infarction and heart failure had good discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.765; 95% CI, 0.748 to 0.781). Addition of variables from the electrocardiogram did not improve the overall model discrimination (C‐statistic, 0.767; 95% CI, 0.750 to 0.783; categorical net reclassification improvement, −0.0032; 95% CI, −0.0178 to 0.0113). In the validation cohorts, discrimination was acceptable (AGES C‐statistic, 0.664; 95% CI, 0.632 to 0.697 and RS C‐statistic, 0.705; 95% CI, 0.664 to 0.747) and calibration was adequate.ConclusionA risk model including variables readily available in primary care settings adequately predicted AF in diverse populations from the United States and Europe

Genome-wide association study identifies novel loci associated with circulating phospho- and sphingolipid concentrations.

Phospho- and sphingolipids are crucial cellular and intracellular compounds. These lipids are required for active transport, a number of enzymatic processes, membrane formation, and cell signalling. Disruption of their metabolism leads to several diseases, with diverse neurological, psychiatric, and metabolic consequences. A large number of phospholipid and sphingolipid species can be detected and measured in human plasma. We conducted a meta-analysis of five European family-based genome-wide association studies (N = 4034) on plasma levels of 24 sphingomyelins (SPM), 9 ceramides (CER), 57 phosphatidylcholines (PC), 20 lysophosphatidylcholines (LPC), 27 phosphatidylethanolamines (PE), and 16 PE-based plasmalogens (PLPE), as well as their proportions in each major class. This effort yielded 25 genome-wide significant loci for phospholipids (smallest P-value = 9.88×10(-204)) and 10 loci for sphingolipids (smallest P-value = 3.10×10(-57)). After a correction for multiple comparisons (P-value<2.2×10(-9)), we observed four novel loci significantly associated with phospholipids (PAQR9, AGPAT1, PKD2L1, PDXDC1) and two with sphingolipids (PLD2 and APOE) explaining up to 3.1% of the variance. Further analysis of the top findings with respect to within class molar proportions uncovered three additional loci for phospholipids (PNLIPRP2, PCDH20, and ABDH3) suggesting their involvement in either fatty acid elongation/saturation processes or fatty acid specific turnover mechanisms. Among those, 14 loci (KCNH7, AGPAT1, PNLIPRP2, SYT9, FADS1-2-3, DLG2, APOA1, ELOVL2, CDK17, LIPC, PDXDC1, PLD2, LASS4, and APOE) mapped into the glycerophospholipid and 12 loci (ILKAP, ITGA9, AGPAT1, FADS1-2-3, APOA1, PCDH20, LIPC, PDXDC1, SGPP1, APOE, LASS4, and PLD2) to the sphingolipid pathways. In large meta-analyses, associations between FADS1-2-3 and carotid intima media thickness, AGPAT1 and type 2 diabetes, and APOA1 and coronary artery disease were observed. In conclusion, our study identified nine novel phospho- and sphingolipid loci, substantially increasing our knowledge of the genetic basis for these traits