Validation of agent-based land use model by Markovian model : application to forest-agriculture transitions in Madagascar

The determination of transition rules that farmers adopt to manage crop-fallow after forest clearing, is essential for deciding a sustainable strategy for forest conservation. The effect of the type of farms with respect to these transition rules in forest border may mitigate incentive measures planned by forest conservation policy. Agent-base modeling (ABM) of land use is a relevant approach to manage the dynamics of heterogeneous mosaic landscapes such as the border of the Malagasy Eastern rainforest. Transition rules between six land uses (forest, fallow, crop, grass, plantation and paddy ?eld) are formalized at a plot level. A historical database containing transitions between the ?rst four land use states was used to calibrate transition models for the ecological and farmer land use dynamics. Three land-use models have been built: (1) a Markov chain (stochastic), (2) a timed automaton (deterministic), (3) and an agent-based model, which introduces the farmers. The land use ABM allows to test scenarios of deforestation with both varying initial population and farm spatial organization, size or strategy. The land use ABM is ?rst calibrated via a timed automaton, ?tting time delay parameters, the duration of each land use state (fallow, crop, grass), and the number of cropping cycles since the ?rst forest clearing. It is then validated with the help of a Markovian model, comparing two transition matrices with ?2 metrics. The two transition matrices were respectively created with historical data of plot land use, and with simulated data produced by the land use ABM. We ?nish with a general discussion on the validation of such a complex system with a simple mathematical model. (Résumé d'auteur

Addressing future uncertainties in coastal areas : an innovative process to support decision-making for climatic change adaptation based on participatory foresight, artificial intelligence and prospective spatial risk assesment

Programa de Doctorado en Estrategias de Planificación del TerritorioTo date 44% of the world's population lives within 150 kilometers of the coast. Given the socio-economic growth and urban development trends, it is a widespread assumption that climate change will have severe impacts on coastal areas, being sea-level rise a threat of special concern due to the expected magnitude of its impacts. Despite the urgency of moving towards climate change adaptation has been widely recognized in the recent years, significant barriers exist. One major handicap is the necessity to handle the many uncertainties surrounding future conditions and include them into the planning process. Another major obstacle is that it can be challenging for society to care about events that may take place decades from now, let alone fully understand their potential impact. Taking into account these challenges, this thesis aims to contribute to the field of climate change adaptation on coastal areas by providing transferable, participatory and foresight-based tools, to address future uncertainties on coastal areas as well as help to communicate the potential impacts of climate change and generate awareness among communities. A threefold process is proposed to : i) develop a replicable methodology to create explorative, participative, locally-based future scenarios; ii) translate a selected scenario into geospatial data through the use of Artificial Intelligence models; and iii) spatially assess the potential impacts of future sea-level rise combined with an extreme event on a future scenario. The methods have been tested on a pilot site, involving over 60 stakeholders, including local communities, governments, private and public institutions and informal organizations. Results show the threefold process proposed in this thesis could be a valuable tool to assist decision-making on the context of climate change adaptation on coastal areas at the local scale. In particular, it could help to: enhance stakeholders¿ engagement and increase awareness on present and future challenges; assess and visualize future impacts of climate change integrating physical and socio-economic systems; acting as a triggering point for climate change adaptation initiatives; and contributing to co-generate knowledge, promoting a multi-directional dialogue between the research community and society. Further research is encouraged to explore the transferability of the process to other sites as well as to develop further theoretical and practical applications of the methodological approaches hereby presented.Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Departamento de Geografía, Historia y Filosofí

Land cover change from national to global scales:A spatiotemporal assessment of trajectories, transitions and drivers

Changes in global land cover (LC) have significant consequences for global environmental change, impacting the sustainability of biogeochemical cycles, ecosystem services, biodiversity, and food security. Different forms of LC change have taken place across the world in recent decades due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic drivers, however, the types of change and rates of change have traditionally been hard to quantify. This thesis exploits the properties of the recently released ESA-CCI-LC product – an internally consistent, high-resolution annual time-series of global LC extending from 1992 to 2018. Specifically, this thesis uses a combination of trajectories and transition maps to quantify LC changes over time at national, continental and global scales, in order to develop a deeper understanding of what, where and when significant changes in LC have taken place and relates these to natural and anthropogenic drivers. This thesis presents three analytical chapters that contribute to achieving the objectives and the overarching aim of the thesis. The first analytical chapter initially focuses on the Nile Delta region of Egypt, one of the most densely populated and rapidly urbanising regions globally, to quantify historic rates of urbanisation across the fertile agricultural land, before modelling a series of alternative futures in which these lands are largely protected from future urban expansion. The results show that 74,600 hectares of fertile agricultural land in the Nile Delta (Old Lands) was lost to urban expansion between 1992 and 2015. Furthermore, a scenario that encouraged urban expansion into the desert and adjacent to areas of existing high population density could be achieved, hence preserving large areas of fertile agricultural land within the Nile Delta. The second analytical chapter goes on to examine LC changes across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), a complex and diverse environment, through the joint lenses of political regions and ecoregions, differentiating between natural and anthropogenic signals of change and relating to likely drivers. The results reveal key LC change processes at a range of spatial scales, and identify hotspots of LC change. The major five key LC change processes were: (i) “gain of dry forests” covered the largest extent and was distributed across the whole of SSA; (ii) “greening of deserts” found adjacent to desert areas (e.g., the Sahel belt); (iii) “loss of tree-dominated savanna” extending mainly across South-eastern Africa; (iv) “loss of shrub-dominated savanna” stretching across West Africa, and “loss of tropical rainforests” unexpectedly covering the smallest extent, mainly in the DRC, West Africa and Madagascar. The final analytical chapter considers LC change at the global scale, providing a comprehensive assessment of LC gains and losses, trajectories and transitions, including a complete assessment of associated uncertainties. This chapter highlights variability between continents and identifies locations of high LC dynamism, recognising global hotspots for sustainability challenges. At the national scale, the chapter identifies the top 10 countries with the largest percentages of forest loss and urban expansion globally. The results show that the majority of these countries have stabilised their forest losses, however, urban expansion was consistently on the rise in all countries. The thesis concludes with recommendations for future research as global LC products become more refined (spatially, temporally and thematically) allowing deeper insights into the causes and consequences of global LC change to be determined

Agricultural land systems : modelling past, present and future regional dynamics

This thesis arises from the understanding of how the integration of concepts, tools, techniques, and methods from geographic information science (GIS) can provide a formalised knowledge base for agricultural land systems in response to future agricultural and food system challenges. To that end, this thesis focuses on understanding the potential application of GIS-based approaches and available spatial data sources for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics in Portugal. The specific objectives of this thesis are addressed in seven chapters in Parts II through V, each corresponding to one scientific article that was either published or is being considered for publication in peer-reviewed international scientific journals. In Part II, Chapter 2 summarises the body of knowledge and provides the context for the contribution of this thesis within the scientific domain of agricultural land systems. In Part III, Chapters 3 and 4 explore remotely sensed and Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) data, multitemporal and multisensory approaches, and a variety of statistical methods for mapping, quantifying, and assessing regional agricultural land dynamics in the Beja district. In Part IV, Chapters 5–7 explore the CA-Markov model, Markov chain model, machine learning, and model-agnostic approach, as well as a set of spatial metrics and statistical methods for modelling the factors and spatiotemporal changes of agricultural land use in the Beja district. In Part V, Chapter 8 explores an area-weighting GIS-based technique, a spatiotemporal data cube, and statistical methods to model the spatial distribution across time for regional agricultural production in Portugal. The case studies in the thesis contribute practical and theoretical knowledge by demonstrating the strengths and limitations of several GIS-based approaches. Together, the case studies demonstrate the underlying principles that underpin each approach in a way that allows us to infer their potentiality and appropriateness for modelling regional agricultural land-use and production dynamics, stimulating further research along this line. Generally, this thesis partly reflects the state-of-art of land-use modelling and contribute significantly to the introduction of advances in agricultural system modelling research and land-system science

Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in a Changing World

It is increasingly being recognized that land use and land cover changes driven by anthropogenic pressures are impacting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their services, human society, and human livelihoods and well-being. This Special Issue contains 12 original papers covering various issues related to land use and land use changes in various parts of the world (see references), with the purpose of providing a forum to exchange ideas and progress in related areas. Research topics include land use targets, dynamic modelling and mapping using satellite images, pressures from energy production, deforestation, impacts on ecosystem services, aboveground biomass evaluation, and investigations on libraries of legends and classification systems

Land Use and Land Cover Mapping in a Changing World

It is increasingly being recognized that land use and land cover changes driven by anthropogenic pressures are impacting terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and their services, human society, and human livelihoods and well-being. This Special Issue contains 12 original papers covering various issues related to land use and land use changes in various parts of the world (see references), with the purpose of providing a forum to exchange ideas and progress in related areas. Research topics include land use targets, dynamic modelling and mapping using satellite images, pressures from energy production, deforestation, impacts on ecosystem services, aboveground biomass evaluation, and investigations on libraries of legends and classification systems

Forest landscapes and global change. New frontiers in management, conservation and restoration. Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference

This volume contains the contributions of numerous participants at the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference, which took place in Bragança, Portugal, from 21 to 24 of September 2010. The conference was dedicated to the theme Forest Landscapes and Global Change - New Frontiers in Management, Conservation and Restoration. The 128 papers included in this book follow the structure and topics of the conference. Sections 1 to 8 include papers relative to presentations in 18 thematic oral and two poster sessions. Section 9 is devoted to a wide-range of landscape ecology fields covered in the 12 symposia of the conference. The Proceedings of the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference register the growth of scientific interest in forest landscape patterns and processes, and the recognition of the role of landscape ecology in the advancement of science and management, particularly within the context of emerging physical, social and political drivers of change, which influence forest systems and the services they provide. We believe that these papers, together with the presentations and debate which took place during the IUFRO Landscape Ecology Working Group International Conference – Bragança 2010, will definitively contribute to the advancement of landscape ecology and science in general. For their additional effort and commitment, we thank all the participants in the conference for leaving this record of their work, thoughts and science

Defining an epidemiological landscape that connects movement ecology to pathogen transmission and pace-of-life

Pathogen transmission depends on host density, mobility and contact. These components emerge from host and pathogen movements that themselves arise through interactions with the surrounding environment. The environment, the emergent host and pathogen movements, and the subsequent patterns of density, mobility and contact form an ‘epidemiological landscape’ connecting the environment to specific locations where transmissions occur. Conventionally, the epidemiological landscape has been described in terms of the geographical coordinates where hosts or pathogens are located. We advocate for an alternative approach that relates those locations to attributes of the local environment. Environmental descriptions can strengthen epidemiological forecasts by allowing for predictions even when local geographical data are not available. Environmental predictions are more accessible than ever thanks to new tools from movement ecology, and we introduce a ‘movement-pathogen pace of life’ heuristic to help identify aspects of movement that have the most influence on spatial epidemiology. By linking pathogen transmission directly to the environment, the epidemiological landscape offers an efficient path for using environmental information to inform models describing when and where transmission will occur