A state-of-the-art multi-criteria model for drug benefit-risk analysis

Drug benefit-risk analysis is based on firm clinical evidence related to various safety and efficacy outcomes, such as tolerability, treatment response, and adverse events. In this paper, we propose a new approach for constructing a supporting multi-criteria model that fully takes into account this evidence. Our approach is based on the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) methodology, which allows us to compute the typical value judgments that support a decision, to quantify uncertainty, and to compute a comprehensive benefit-risk profile. As an example, we constructed a multi-criteria model for the therapeutic group of second-generation antidepressants. We analyzed Fluoxetine, Paroxetine, Sertraline, and Venlafaxine according to relative efficacy and absolute rates of several common adverse drug reactions using meta-analytical data from the literature. Our model showed that there are clear trade-offs among the four drugs. Based on our experiences from this study, SMAA appears to be a suitable approach for quantifying trade-offs and decision uncertainty in drug benefit-risk analysis.

Mitigating subjectivity and bias in AI development indices: A robust approach to redefining country rankings

Countries worldwide have been implementing different actions national strategies for Artificial Intelligence (AI) to shape policy priorities and guide their development concerning AI. Several AI indices have emerged to assess countries' progress in AI development, aiding decision-making on investments and policy choices. Typically, these indices combine multiple indicators using linear additive methods such as weighted sums, although they are limited in their ability to account for interactions among indicators. Another limitation concerns the use of deterministic weights, which can be perceived as subjective and vulnerable to debate and scrutiny, especially by nations that feel disadvantaged. Aiming at mitigating these problems, we conduct a methodological analysis to derive AI indices based on multiple criteria decision analysis. Initially, we assess correlations between different AI dimensions and employ the Choquet integral to model them. Thus, we apply the Stochastic Multicriteria Acceptability Analysis (SMAA) to conduct a sensitivity analysis using both weighted sum and Choquet integral in order to evaluate the stability of the indices with regard the weights. Finally, we introduce a novel ranking methodology based on SMAA, which considers several sets of weights to derive the ranking of countries. As a result, instead of using predefined weights, in the proposed approach, the ranking is achieved based on the probabilities of countries in occupying a specific position. In the computational analysis, we utilize the data employed in The Global AI Index proposed by Tortoise. Results reveal correlations in the data, and our approach effectively mitigates bias. In the sensitivity analysis, we scrutinize changes in the ranking resulting from weight adjustments. We demonstrate that our proposal rankings closely align with those derived from weight variations, proving to be more robust

Simplified models for multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty

Includes abstract.Includes bibliographical references.When facilitating decisions in which some performance evaluations are uncertain, a decision must be taken about how this uncertainty is to be modelled. This involves, in part, choosing an uncertainty format {a way of representing the possible outcomes that may occur. It seems reasonable to suggest {and is an aim of the thesis to show {that the choice of how uncertain quantities are represented will exert some influence over the decision-making process and the final decision taken. Many models exist for multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) under conditions of uncertainty; perhaps the most well-known are those based on multi-attribute utility theory [MAUT, e.g. 147], which uses probability distributions to represent uncertainty. The great strength of MAUT is its axiomatic foundation, but even in its simplest form its practical implementation is formidable, and although there are several practical applications of MAUT reported in the literature [e.g. 39, 270] the number is small relative to its theoretical standing. Practical applications often use simpler decision models to aid decision making under uncertainty, based on uncertainty formats that `simplify' the full probability distributions (e.g. using expected values, variances, quantiles, etc). The aim of this thesis is to identify decision models associated with these `simplified' uncertainty formats and to evaluate the potential usefulness of these models as decision aids for problems involving uncertainty. It is hoped that doing so provides some guidance to practitioners about the types of models that may be used for uncertain decision making. The performance of simplified models is evaluated using three distinct methodological approaches {computer simulation, `laboratory' choice experiments, and real-world applications of decision analysis {in the hope of providing an integrated assessment. Chapter 3 generates a number of hypothetical decision problems by simulation, and within each problem simulates the hypothetical application of MAUT and various simplified decision models. The findings allow one to assess how the simplification of MAUT models might impact results, but do not provide any general conclusions because they are based on hypothetical decision problems and cannot evaluate practical issues like ease-of-use or the ability to generate insight that are critical to good decision aid. Chapter 4 addresses some of these limitations by reporting an experimental study consisting of choice tasks presented to numerate but unfacilitated participants. Tasks involved subjects selecting one from a set of five alternatives with uncertain attribute evaluations, with the format used to represent uncertainty and the number of objectives for the choice varied as part of the experimental design. The study is limited by the focus on descriptive rather than real prescriptive decision making, but has implications for prescriptive decision making practice in that natural tendencies are identified which may need to be overcome in the course of a prescriptive analysis

Implementation of stochastic multi attribute analysis (SMAA) in comparative environmental assessments

The selection of an alternative based on the results of a comparative environmental assessment such as life cycle assessment (LCA), environmental input-output analysis (EIOA) or integrated assessment modelling (IAM) is challenging because most of the times there is no single best option. Most comparative cases contain trade-offs between environmental criteria, uncertainty in the performances and multiple diverse values from decision makers. To circumvent these challenges, a method from decision analysis, namely stochastic multi attribute analysis (SMAA), has been proposed instead. SMAA performs aggregation that is partially compensatory (hence, closer to a strong sustainability perspective), incorporates performance uncertainty in the assessment, is free from external normalization references and allows for uncertainties in decision maker preferences. This paper presents a thorough introduction of SMAA for environmental decision-support, provides the mathematical fundamentals and offers an Excel platform for easy implementation and access

Asynchronous agent-based simulation and optimization of parallel business

A Port Container Terminal (PCT) involves complex business processes which are carried out by at least four organizations, namely PCT Operator, Customer, Quarantine and Customs. Each organization produces event log data from the activities. The event log data from the four organizations contain synchronous and asynchronous activities. In this research, the four organizations are represented by four agents. By simulating this log data using agent based simulation, we get the performance of the current business process. The performance indicators gathered are time and cost which are needed to do the activity (task). After the simulation is complete, we found Asynchronous Waiting Time (AWT). AWT is waiting time which happens because the agent in the simulation cannot do the newly assigned task because the agent is still working on the other task. Therefore, we parallelize the task performed by the agent so that the agent can do multiple tasks at a time. After we parallelize the task, we perform an optimization process using Stochastic Multicriteria Adaptability Analysis 2 (SMAA-2). Thus, the optimal amount of task an agent can do simultaneously is analyzed. This study result shows that parallelization can reduce AWT of the current system and the optimization process using SMAA-2 shows the most optimal number of multiple tasks an agent can do simultaneously

Stochastic multicriteria acceptability analysis as a forest management priority mapping approach based on airborne laser scanning and field inventory data

The mapping of ecosystem service (ES) provisioning often lacks decision-makers' preferences on the ESs pro-vided. Analyzing the related uncertainties can be computationally demanding for a landscape tessellated to a large number of spatial units such as pixels. We propose stochastic multicriteria acceptability analyses to incorporate (unknown or only partially known) decision-makers' preferences into the spatial forest management prioritization in a Scandinavian boreal forest landscape. The potential of the landscape for the management alternatives was quantified by airborne laser scanning based proxies. A nearest-neighbor imputation method was applied to provide each pixel with stochastic acceptabilities on the alternatives based on decision-makers' preferences sampled from a probability distribution. We showed that this workflow could be used to derive two types of maps for forest use prioritization: one showing the alternative that a decision-maker with given pref-erences should choose and another showing areas where the suitability of the forest structure suggested different alternative than the preferences. We discuss the potential of the latter approach for mapping management hotspots. The stochastic approach allows estimating the strength of the decision with respect to the uncertainty in both the proxy values and preferences. The nearest neighbor imputation of stochastic acceptabilities is a computationally feasible way to improve decisions based on ES proxy maps by accounting for uncertainties, although the need for such detailed information at the pixel level should be separately assessed.Peer reviewe

Mathematical Model and Stochastic Multi-Criteria Acceptability Analysis for Facility Location Problem

This paper studies a real-life public sector facility location problem. The problem fundamentally originated from the idea of downsizing the number of service centres. However, opening of new facilities is also considered in case the current facilities fail to fulfil general management demands. Two operation research methodologies are used to solve the problem and the obtained results are compared. First, a mathematical programming model is introduced to determine where the new facilities will be located, and which districts get service from which facilities, as if there were currently no existing facilities. Second, the Stochastic Multi-criteria Acceptability Analysis-TRI (SMAA-TRI) method is used to select the best suitable places for service centres among the existing facilities. It is noted that the application of mathematical programming model and SMAA-TRI integration approach on facility location problem is the first study in literature. Compression of outcomes shows that mixed integer linear programming (MILP) model tries to open facilities in districts which are favoured by SMAA-TRI solution.</span