Interseismic coupling and seismic potential along the Central Andes subduction zone

We use about two decades of geodetic measurements to characterize interseismic strain build up along the Central Andes subduction zone from Lima, Peru, to Antofagasta, Chile. These measurements are modeled assuming a 3-plate model (Nazca, Andean sliver and South America Craton) and spatially varying interseismic coupling (ISC) on the Nazca megathrust interface. We also determine slip models of the 1996 M_w = 7.7 Nazca, the 2001 M_w = 8.4 Arequipa, the 2007 M_w = 8.0 Pisco and the M_w = 7.7 Tocopilla earthquakes. We find that the data require a highly heterogeneous ISC pattern and that, overall, areas with large seismic slip coincide with areas which remain locked in the interseismic period (with high ISC). Offshore Lima where the ISC is high, a M_w∼8.6–8.8 earthquake occurred in 1746. This area ruptured again in a sequence of four M_w∼8.0 earthquakes in 1940, 1966, 1974 and 2007 but these events released only a small fraction of the elastic strain which has built up since 1746 so that enough elastic strain might be available there to generate a M_w > 8.5 earthquake. The region where the Nazca ridge subducts appears to be mostly creeping aseismically in the interseismic period (low ISC) and seems to act as a permanent barrier as no large earthquake ruptured through it in the last 500 years. In southern Peru, ISC is relatively high and the deficit of moment accumulated since the M_w∼8.8 earthquake of 1868 is equivalent to a magnitude M_w∼8.4 earthquake. Two asperities separated by a subtle aseismic creeping patch are revealed there. This aseismic patch may arrest some rupture as happened during the 2001 Arequipa earthquake, but the larger earthquakes of 1604 and 1868 were able to rupture through it. In northern Chile, ISC is very high and the rupture of the 2007 Tocopilla earthquake has released only 4% of the elastic strain that has accumulated since 1877. The deficit of moment which has accumulated there is equivalent to a magnitude M_w∼8.7 earthquake. This study thus provides elements to assess the location, size and magnitude of future large megathurst earthquakes in the Central Andes subduction zone. Caveats of this study are that interseismic strain of the forearc is assumed time invariant and entirely elastic. Also a major source of uncertainty is due to fact that the available data place very little constraints on interseismic coupling at shallow depth near the trench, except offshore Lima where sea bottom geodetic measurements have been collected suggesting strong coupling

USA – Competition strategies must adapt to the Euro

Article by Dr Richard Cordero (a researcher and writer specialising in the adaptation of business practices and systems to the Euro and other EU monetary and financial matters, as well as legal and business aspects of the telecommunications and entertainment industries in the USA. Published in the Letter from … section of Amicus Curiae - Journal of the Institute of Advanced Legal Studies and its Society for Advanced Legal Studies. The Journal is produced by the Society for Advanced Legal Studies at the Institute of Advanced Legal Studies, University of London

Geodetic Measurement of Deformation East of the San Andreas Fault in Central California

Triangulation and trilateration data from two geodetic networks located between the western edge of the Great Valley and the San Andreas fault have been used to calculate shear strain rates in the Diablo Range and to estimate the slip rate along the Calaveras and Paicines faults in Central California. Within the Diablo Range the average shear strain rate was determined for the time period between 1962 and 1982 to be 0.15 + or - 0.08 microrad/yr, with the orientation of the most compressive strain at N 16 deg E + or - 14 deg. The orientation of the principal compressive strain predicted from the azimuth of the major structures in the region is N 25 deg E. It is inferred that the measured strain is due to compression across the folds of this area: the average shear straining corresponds to a relative shortening rate of 4.5 + or - 2.4 mm/yr. From an examination of wellbore breakout orientations and the azimuths of P-axes from earthquake focal mechanisms the inferred orientation of maximum compressive stress was found to be similar to the direction of maximum compressive strain implied by the trend of local fold structures. Results do not support the hypothesis of uniform fault-normal compression within the Coast Ranges. From trilateration measurements made between 1972 and 1987 on lines that are within 10 km of the San Andreas fault, a slip rate of 10 to 12 mm/yr was calculated for the Calaveras-Paicines fault south of Hollister. The slip rate of the Paicines fault decreases to 4 mm/yr near Bitter

Perspective on the results

The results of studies on the risk due to the use of carbon fibers in aircraft are assessed. Assumptions such as additional fire protection in the aircraft, new structural concepts, and the development of unique carbon composites are evaluated. Some findings from the national risk profile including equipment vulnerability and economic impact are discussed

Global correlations between maximum magnitudes of subduction zone interface thrust earthquakes and physical parameters of subduction zones

Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Depreciation, inflation and investment incentives: the effects of the tax acts of 1981 and 1982

Inflation (Finance) ; Investments

Four-month moxifloxacin-based regimens for drug-sensitive tuberculosis

Supported by the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development with support from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, the European and Developing Countries Clinical Trials Partnership, U.S. Agency for International Development, U.K. Department for International Development, Directorate General for International Cooperation of the Netherlands, Irish Aid, Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, and National Institutes of Health, AIDS Clinical Trials Group and by grants from the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID) (UM1AI068634, UM1 AI068636, and UM1AI106701) and by NIAID grants to the University of KwaZulu Natal, South Africa, AIDS Clinical Trials Group (ACTG) site 31422 (1U01AI069469); to the Perinatal HIV Research Unit, Chris Hani Baragwanath Hospital, South Africa, ACTG site 12301 (1U01AI069453); and to the Durban International Clinical Trials Unit, South Africa, ACTG site 11201 (1U01AI069426); Bayer Healthcare for the donation of moxifloxacin; and Sanofi for the donation of rifampin.Background: Early-phase and preclinical studies suggest that moxifloxacin-containing regimens could allow for effective 4-month treatment of uncomplicated, smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis. Methods: We conducted a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled, phase 3 trial to test the noninferiority of two moxifloxacin-containing regimens as compared with a control regimen. One group of patients received isoniazid, rifampin, pyrazinamide, and ethambutol for 8 weeks, followed by 18 weeks of isoniazid and rifampin (control group). In the second group, we replaced ethambutol with moxifloxacin for 17 weeks, followed by 9 weeks of placebo (isoniazid group), and in the third group, we replaced isoniazid with moxifloxacin for 17 weeks, followed by 9 weeks of placebo (ethambutol group). The primary end point was treatment failure or relapse within 18 months after randomization. Results: Of the 1931 patients who underwent randomization, in the per-protocol analysis, a favorable outcome was reported in fewer patients in the isoniazid group (85%) and the ethambutol group (80%) than in the control group (92%), for a difference favoring the control group of 6.1 percentage points (97.5% confidence interval [CI], 1.7 to 10.5) versus the isoniazid group and 11.4 percentage points (97.5% CI, 6.7 to 16.1) versus the ethambutol group. Results were consistent in the modified intention-to-treat analysis and all sensitivity analyses. The hazard ratios for the time to culture negativity in both solid and liquid mediums for the isoniazid and ethambutol groups, as compared with the control group, ranged from 1.17 to 1.25, indicating a shorter duration, with the lower bounds of the 95% confidence intervals exceeding 1.00 in all cases. There was no significant difference in the incidence of grade 3 or 4 adverse events, with events reported in 127 patients (19%) in the isoniazid group, 111 (17%) in the ethambutol group, and 123 (19%) in the control group. Conclusions: The two moxifloxacin-containing regimens produced a more rapid initial decline in bacterial load, as compared with the control group. However, noninferiority for these regimens was not shown, which indicates that shortening treatment to 4 months was not effective in this setting. (Funded by the Global Alliance for TB Drug Development and others; REMoxTB ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00864383.)Publisher PDFPeer reviewe

Exhuming the Meso-Cenozoic Kyrgyz Tianshan and Siberian Altai-Sayan : a review based on low-temperature thermochronology

Thermochronological datasets for the Kyrgyz Tianshan and Siberian Altai-Sayan within Central Asia reveal a punctuated exhumation history during the Meso-Cenozoic. In this paper, the datasets for both regions are collectively reviewed in order to speculate on the links between the Meso-Cenozoic exhumation of the continental Eurasian interior and the prevailing tectonic processes at the plate margins. Whereas most of the thermochronological data across both regions document late Jurassic-Cretaceous regional basement cooling, older landscape relics and dissecting fault zones throughout both regions preserve Triassic and Cenozoic events of rapid cooling, respectively. Triassic cooling is thought to reflect the Qiangtang-Eurasia collision and/or rifting/subsidence in the West Siberian basin. Alternatively, this cooling signal could be related with the terminal terrane-amalgamation of the Central Asian Orogenic Belt. For the Kygyz Tianshan, late Jurassic-Cretaceous regional exhumation and Cenozoic fault reactivations can be linked with specific tectonic events during the closure of the Palaeo-Tethys and Neo-Tethys Oceans, respectively. The effect of the progressive consumption of these oceans and the associated collisions of Cimmeria and India with Eurasia probably only had a minor effect on the exhumation of the Siberian Altai-Sayan. More likely, tectonic forces from the east (present-day coordinates) as a result of the building and collapse of the Mongol-Okhotsk orogen and rifting in the Baikal region shaped the current Siberian Altai-Sayan topography. Although many of these hypothesised links need to be tested further, they allow a first-order insight into the dynamic response and the stress propagation pathways from the Eurasian margin into the continental interior