37 research outputs found

    Bibliographic Review on Distributed Kalman Filtering

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    In recent years, a compelling need has arisen to understand the effects of distributed information structures on estimation and filtering. In this paper, a bibliographical review on distributed Kalman filtering (DKF) is provided.\ud The paper contains a classification of different approaches and methods involved to DKF. The applications of DKF are also discussed and explained separately. A comparison of different approaches is briefly carried out. Focuses on the contemporary research are also addressed with emphasis on the practical applications of the techniques. An exhaustive list of publications, linked directly or indirectly to DKF in the open literature, is compiled to provide an overall picture of different developing aspects of this area

    Generalized Hidden Filter Markov Models Applied to Speaker Recognition

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    Classification of time series has wide Air Force, DoD and commercial interest, from automatic target recognition systems on munitions to recognition of speakers in diverse environments. The ability to effectively model the temporal information contained in a sequence is of paramount importance. Toward this goal, this research develops theoretical extensions to a class of stochastic models and demonstrates their effectiveness on the problem of text-independent (language constrained) speaker recognition. Specifically within the hidden Markov model architecture, additional constraints are implemented which better incorporate observation correlations and context, where standard approaches fail. Two methods of modeling correlations are developed, and their mathematical properties of convergence and reestimation are analyzed. These differ in modeling correlation present in the time samples and those present in the processed features, such as Mel frequency cepstral coefficients. The system models speaker dependent phonemes, making use of word dictionary grammars, and recognition is based on normalized log-likelihood Viterbi decoding. Both closed set identification and speaker verification using cohorts are performed on the YOHO database. YOHO is the only large scale, multiple-session, high-quality speech database for speaker authentication and contains over one hundred speakers stating combination locks. Equal error rates of 0.21% for males and 0.31% for females are demonstrated. A critical error analysis using a hypothesis test formulation provides the maximum number of errors observable while still meeting the goal error rates of 1% False Reject and 0.1% False Accept. Our system achieves this goal

    Untangling hotel industry’s inefficiency: An SFA approach applied to a renowned Portuguese hotel chain

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    The present paper explores the technical efficiency of four hotels from Teixeira Duarte Group - a renowned Portuguese hotel chain. An efficiency ranking is established from these four hotel units located in Portugal using Stochastic Frontier Analysis. This methodology allows to discriminate between measurement error and systematic inefficiencies in the estimation process enabling to investigate the main inefficiency causes. Several suggestions concerning efficiency improvement are undertaken for each hotel studied.info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

    Breathing pattern characterization in patients with respiratory and cardiac failure

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    El objetivo principal de la tesis es estudiar los patrones respiratorios de pacientes en proceso de extubación y pacientes con insuficiencia cardiaca crónica (CHF), a partirde la señal de flujo respiratorio. La información obtenida de este estudio puede contribuir a la comprensión de los procesos fisiológicos subyacentes,y ayudar en el diagnóstico de estos pacientes. Uno de los problemas más desafiantes en unidades de cuidados intensivos es elproceso de desconexión de pacientes asistidos mediante ventilación mecánica. Más del 10% de pacientes que se extuban tienen que ser reintubados antes de 48 horas. Una prueba fallida puede ocasionar distrés cardiopulmonar y una mayor tasa de mortalidad. Se caracterizó el patrón respiratorio y la interacción dinámica entre la frecuenciacardiaca y frecuencia respiratoria, para obtener índices no invasivos que proporcionen una mayor información en el proceso de destete y mejorar el éxito de la desconexión.Las señales de flujo respiratorio y electrocardiográfica utilizadas en este estudio fueron obtenidas durante 30 minutos aplicando la prueba de tubo en T. Se compararon94 pacientes que tuvieron éxito en el proceso de extubación (GE), 39 pacientes que fracasaron en la prueba al mantener la respiración espontánea (GF), y 21 pacientes quesuperaron la prueba con éxito y fueron extubados, pero antes de 48 horas tuvieron que ser reintubados (GR). El patrón respiratorio se caracterizó a partir de las series temporales. Se aplicó la dinámica simbólica conjunta a las series correspondientes a las frecuencias cardiaca y respiratoria, para describir las interacciones cardiorrespiratoria de estos pacientes. Técnicas de "clustering", ecualización del histograma, clasificación mediante máquinasde soporte vectorial (SVM) y técnicas de validación permitieron seleccionar el conjunto de características más relevantes. Se propuso una nueva métrica B (índice de equilibrio) para la optimización de la clasificación con muestras desbalanceadas. Basado en este nuevo índice, aplicando SVM, se seleccionaron las mejores características que mantenían el mejor equilibrio entre sensibilidad y especificidad en todas las clasificaciones. El mejor resultado se obtuvo considerando conjuntamente la precisión y el valor de B, con una clasificación del 80% entre los grupos GE y GF, con 6 características. Clasificando GE vs. el resto de los pacientes, el mejor resultado se obtuvo con 9 características, con 81%. Clasificando GR vs. GE y GR vs. el resto de pacientes la precisión fue del 83% y 81% con 9 y 10 características, respectivamente. La tasa de mortalidad en pacientes con CHF es alta y la estratificación de estospacientes en función del riesgo es uno de los principales retos de la cardiología contemporánea. Estos pacientes a menudo desarrollan patrones de respiraciónperiódica (PB) incluyendo la respiración de Cheyne-Stokes (CSR) y respiración periódica sin apnea. La respiración periódica en estos pacientes se ha asociadocon una mayor mortalidad, especialmente en pacientes con CSR. Por lo tanto, el estudio de estos patrones respiratorios podría servir como un marcador de riesgo y proporcionar una mayor información sobre el estado fisiopatológico de pacientes con CHF. Se pretende identificar la condición de los pacientes con CHFde forma no invasiva mediante la caracterización y clasificación de patrones respiratorios con PBy respiración no periódica (nPB), y patrón de sujetos sanos, a partir registros de 15minutos de la señal de flujo respiratorio. Se caracterizó el patrón respiratorio mediante un estudio tiempo-frecuencia estacionario y no estacionario, de la envolvente de la señal de flujo respiratorio. Parámetros relacionados con la potencia espectral de la envolvente de la señal presentaron losmejores resultados en la clasificación de sujetos sanos y pacientes con CHF con CSR, PB y nPB. Las curvas ROC validan los resultados obtenidos. Se aplicó la "correntropy" para una caracterización tiempo-frecuencia mas completa del patrón respiratorio de pacientes con CHF. La "corretronpy" considera los momentos estadísticos de orden superior, siendo más robusta frente a los "outliers". Con la densidad espectral de correntropy (CSD) tanto la frecuencia de modulación como la dela respiración se representan en su posición real en el eje frecuencial. Los pacientes con PB y nPB, presentan diferentesgrados de periodicidad en función de su condición, mientras que los sujetos sanos no tienen periodicidad marcada. Con único parámetro se obtuvieron resultados del 88.9% clasificando pacientes PB vs. nPB, 95.2% para CHF vs. sanos, 94.4% para nPB vs. sanos.The main objective of this thesis is to study andcharacterize breathing patterns through the respiratory flow signal applied to patients on weaning trials from mechanicalventilation and patients with chronic heart failure (CHF). The aim is to contribute to theunderstanding of the underlying physiological processes and to help in the diagnosis of these patients. One of the most challenging problems in intensive care units is still the process ofdiscontinuing mechanical ventilation, as over 10% of patients who undergo successfulT-tube trials have to be reintubated in less than 48 hours. A failed weaning trial mayinduce cardiopulmonary distress and carries a higher mortality rate. We characterize therespiratory pattern and the dynamic interaction between heart rate and breathing rate toobtain noninvasive indices that provide enhanced information about the weaningprocess and improve the weaning outcome. This is achieved through a comparison of 94 patients with successful trials (GS), 39patients who fail to maintain spontaneous breathing (GF), and 21 patients who successfully maintain spontaneous breathing and are extubated, but require thereinstitution of mechanical ventilation in less than 48 hours because they are unable tobreathe (GR). The ECG and the respiratory flow signals used in this study were acquired during T-tube tests and last 30 minute. The respiratory pattern was characterized by means of a number of respiratory timeseries. Joint symbolic dynamics applied to time series of heart rate and respiratoryfrequency was used to describe the cardiorespiratory interactions of patients during theweaning trial process. Clustering, histogram equalization, support vector machines-based classification (SVM) and validation techniques enabled the selection of the bestsubset of input features. We defined a new optimization metric for unbalanced classification problems, andestablished a new SVM feature selection method, based on this balance index B. The proposed B-based SVM feature selection provided a better balance between sensitivityand specificity in all classifications. The best classification result was obtained with SVM feature selection based on bothaccuracy and the balance index, which classified GS and GFwith an accuracy of 80%, considering 6 features. Classifying GS versus the rest of patients, the best result wasobtained with 9 features, 81%, and the accuracy classifying GR versus GS, and GR versus the rest of the patients was 83% and 81% with 9 and 10 features, respectively.The mortality rate in CHF patients remains high and risk stratification in these patients isstill one of the major challenges of contemporary cardiology. Patients with CHF oftendevelop periodic breathing patterns including Cheyne-Stokes respiration (CSR) and periodic breathing without apnea. Periodic breathing in CHF patients is associated withincreased mortality, especially in CSR patients. Therefore it could serve as a risk markerand can provide enhanced information about thepathophysiological condition of CHF patients. The main goal of this research was to identify CHF patients' condition noninvasively bycharacterizing and classifying respiratory flow patterns from patients with PB and nPBand healthy subjects by using 15-minute long respiratory flow signals. The respiratory pattern was characterized by a stationary and a nonstationary time-frequency study through the envelope of the respiratory flow signal. Power-related parameters achieved the best results in all of the classifications involving healthy subjects and CHF patients with CSR, PB and nPB and the ROC curves validated theresults obtained for the identification of different respiratory patterns. We investigated the use of correntropy for the spectral characterization of respiratory patterns in CHF patients. The correntropy function accounts for higher-order moments and is robust to outliers. Due to the former property, the respiratory and modulationfrequencies appear at their actual locations along the frequency axis in the correntropy spectral density (CSD). The best results were achieved with correntropy and CSD-related parameters that characterized the power in the modulation and respiration discriminant bands, definedas a frequency interval centred on the modulation and respiration frequency peaks,respectively. All patients, i.e. both PB and nPB, exhibit various degrees of periodicitydepending on their condition, whereas healthy subjects have no pronounced periodicity.This fact led to excellent results classifying PB and nPB patients 88.9%, CHF versushealthy 95.2%, and nPB versus healthy 94.4% with only one parameter.Postprint (published version

    An evolutionary approach to optimising neural network predictors for passive sonar target tracking

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    Object tracking is important in autonomous robotics, military applications, financial time-series forecasting, and mobile systems. In order to correctly track through clutter, algorithms which predict the next value in a time series are essential. The competence of standard machine learning techniques to create bearing prediction estimates was examined. The results show that the classification based algorithms produce more accurate estimates than the state-of-the-art statistical models. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) and K-Nearest Neighbour were used, demonstrating that this technique is not specific to a single classifier. [Continues.

    MANIFOLD REPRESENTATIONS OF MUSICAL SIGNALS AND GENERATIVE SPACES

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    Tra i diversi campi di ricerca nell\u2019ambito dell\u2019informatica musicale, la sintesi e la generazione di segnali audio incarna la pluridisciplinalita\u300 di questo settore, nutrendo insieme le pratiche scientifiche e musicale dalla sua creazione. Inerente all\u2019informatica dalla sua creazione, la generazione audio ha ispirato numerosi approcci, evolvendo colle pratiche musicale e gli progressi tecnologici e scientifici. Inoltre, alcuni processi di sintesi permettono anche il processo inverso, denominato analisi, in modo che i parametri di sintesi possono anche essere parzialmente o totalmente estratti dai suoni, dando una rappresentazione alternativa ai segnali analizzati. Per di piu\u300, la recente ascesa dei algoritmi di l\u2019apprendimento automatico ha vivamente interrogato il settore della ricerca scientifica, fornendo potenti data-centered metodi che sollevavano diversi epistemologici interrogativi, nonostante i sui efficacia. Particolarmente, un tipo di metodi di apprendimento automatico, denominati modelli generativi, si concentrano sulla generazione di contenuto originale usando le caratteristiche che hanno estratti dei dati analizzati. In tal caso, questi modelli non hanno soltanto interrogato i precedenti metodi di generazione, ma anche sul modo di integrare questi algoritmi nelle pratiche artistiche. Mentre questi metodi sono progressivamente introdotti nel settore del trattamento delle immagini, la loro applicazione per la sintesi di segnali audio e ancora molto marginale. In questo lavoro, il nostro obiettivo e di proporre un nuovo metodo di audio sintesi basato su questi nuovi tipi di generativi modelli, rafforazti dalle nuove avanzati dell\u2019apprendimento automatico. Al primo posto, facciamo una revisione dei approcci esistenti nei settori dei sistemi generativi e di sintesi sonore, focalizzando sul posto di nostro lavoro rispetto a questi disciplini e che cosa possiamo aspettare di questa collazione. In seguito, studiamo in maniera piu\u300 precisa i modelli generativi, e come possiamo utilizzare questi recenti avanzati per l\u2019apprendimento di complesse distribuzione di suoni, in un modo che sia flessibile e nel flusso creativo del utente. Quindi proponiamo un processo di inferenza / generazione, il quale rifletta i processi di analisi/sintesi che sono molto usati nel settore del trattamento del segnale audio, usando modelli latenti, che sono basati sull\u2019utilizzazione di un spazio continuato di alto livello, che usiamo per controllare la generazione. Studiamo dapprima i risultati preliminari ottenuti con informazione spettrale estratte da diversi tipi di dati, che valutiamo qualitativamente e quantitativamente. Successiva- mente, studiamo come fare per rendere questi metodi piu\u300 adattati ai segnali audio, fronteggiando tre diversi aspetti. Primo, proponiamo due diversi metodi di regolarizzazione di questo generativo spazio che sono specificamente sviluppati per l\u2019audio : una strategia basata sulla traduzione segnali / simboli, e una basata su vincoli percettivi. Poi, proponiamo diversi metodi per fronteggiare il aspetto temporale dei segnali audio, basati sull\u2019estrazione di rappresentazioni multiscala e sulla predizione, che permettono ai generativi spazi ottenuti di anche modellare l\u2019aspetto dinamico di questi segnali. Per finire, cambiamo il nostro approccio scientifico per un punto di visto piu\u301 ispirato dall\u2019idea di ricerca e creazione. Primo, descriviamo l\u2019architettura e il design della nostra libreria open-source, vsacids, sviluppata per permettere a esperti o non-esperti musicisti di provare questi nuovi metodi di sintesi. Poi, proponiamo una prima utilizzazione del nostro modello con la creazione di una performance in real- time, chiamata \ue6go, basata insieme sulla nostra libreria vsacids e sull\u2019uso di une agente di esplorazione, imparando con rinforzo nel corso della composizione. Finalmente, tramo dal lavoro presentato alcuni conclusioni sui diversi modi di migliorare e rinforzare il metodo di sintesi proposto, nonche\u301 eventuale applicazione artistiche.Among the diverse research fields within computer music, synthesis and generation of audio signals epitomize the cross-disciplinarity of this domain, jointly nourishing both scientific and artistic practices since its creation. Inherent in computer music since its genesis, audio generation has inspired numerous approaches, evolving both with musical practices and scientific/technical advances. Moreover, some syn- thesis processes also naturally handle the reverse process, named analysis, such that synthesis parameters can also be partially or totally extracted from actual sounds, and providing an alternative representation of the analyzed audio signals. On top of that, the recent rise of machine learning algorithms earnestly questioned the field of scientific research, bringing powerful data-centred methods that raised several epistemological questions amongst researchers, in spite of their efficiency. Especially, a family of machine learning methods, called generative models, are focused on the generation of original content using features extracted from an existing dataset. In that case, such methods not only questioned previous approaches in generation, but also the way of integrating this methods into existing creative processes. While these new generative frameworks are progressively introduced in the domain of image generation, the application of such generative techniques in audio synthesis is still marginal. In this work, we aim to propose a new audio analysis-synthesis framework based on these modern generative models, enhanced by recent advances in machine learning. We first review existing approaches, both in sound synthesis and in generative machine learning, and focus on how our work inserts itself in both practices and what can be expected from their collation. Subsequently, we focus a little more on generative models, and how modern advances in the domain can be exploited to allow us learning complex sound distributions, while being sufficiently flexible to be integrated in the creative flow of the user. We then propose an inference / generation process, mirroring analysis/synthesis paradigms that are natural in the audio processing domain, using latent models that are based on a continuous higher-level space, that we use to control the generation. We first provide preliminary results of our method applied on spectral information, extracted from several datasets, and evaluate both qualitatively and quantitatively the obtained results. Subsequently, we study how to make these methods more suitable for learning audio data, tackling successively three different aspects. First, we propose two different latent regularization strategies specifically designed for audio, based on and signal / symbol translation and perceptual constraints. Then, we propose different methods to address the inner temporality of musical signals, based on the extraction of multi-scale representations and on prediction, that allow the obtained generative spaces that also model the dynamics of the signal. As a last chapter, we swap our scientific approach to a more research & creation-oriented point of view: first, we describe the architecture and the design of our open-source library, vsacids, aiming to be used by expert and non-expert music makers as an integrated creation tool. Then, we propose an first musical use of our system by the creation of a real-time performance, called aego, based jointly on our framework vsacids and an explorative agent using reinforcement learning to be trained during the performance. Finally, we draw some conclusions on the different manners to improve and reinforce the proposed generation method, as well as possible further creative applications.A\u300 travers les diffe\u301rents domaines de recherche de la musique computationnelle, l\u2019analysie et la ge\u301ne\u301ration de signaux audio sont l\u2019exemple parfait de la trans-disciplinarite\u301 de ce domaine, nourrissant simultane\u301ment les pratiques scientifiques et artistiques depuis leur cre\u301ation. Inte\u301gre\u301e a\u300 la musique computationnelle depuis sa cre\u301ation, la synthe\u300se sonore a inspire\u301 de nombreuses approches musicales et scientifiques, e\u301voluant de pair avec les pratiques musicales et les avance\u301es technologiques et scientifiques de son temps. De plus, certaines me\u301thodes de synthe\u300se sonore permettent aussi le processus inverse, appele\u301 analyse, de sorte que les parame\u300tres de synthe\u300se d\u2019un certain ge\u301ne\u301rateur peuvent e\u302tre en partie ou entie\u300rement obtenus a\u300 partir de sons donne\u301s, pouvant ainsi e\u302tre conside\u301re\u301s comme une repre\u301sentation alternative des signaux analyse\u301s. Paralle\u300lement, l\u2019inte\u301re\u302t croissant souleve\u301 par les algorithmes d\u2019apprentissage automatique a vivement questionne\u301 le monde scientifique, apportant de puissantes me\u301thodes d\u2019analyse de donne\u301es suscitant de nombreux questionnements e\u301piste\u301mologiques chez les chercheurs, en de\u301pit de leur effectivite\u301 pratique. En particulier, une famille de me\u301thodes d\u2019apprentissage automatique, nomme\u301e mode\u300les ge\u301ne\u301ratifs, s\u2019inte\u301ressent a\u300 la ge\u301ne\u301ration de contenus originaux a\u300 partir de caracte\u301ristiques extraites directement des donne\u301es analyse\u301es. Ces me\u301thodes n\u2019interrogent pas seulement les approches pre\u301ce\u301dentes, mais aussi sur l\u2019inte\u301gration de ces nouvelles me\u301thodes dans les processus cre\u301atifs existants. Pourtant, alors que ces nouveaux processus ge\u301ne\u301ratifs sont progressivement inte\u301gre\u301s dans le domaine la ge\u301ne\u301ration d\u2019image, l\u2019application de ces techniques en synthe\u300se audio reste marginale. Dans cette the\u300se, nous proposons une nouvelle me\u301thode d\u2019analyse-synthe\u300se base\u301s sur ces derniers mode\u300les ge\u301ne\u301ratifs, depuis renforce\u301s par les avance\u301es modernes dans le domaine de l\u2019apprentissage automatique. Dans un premier temps, nous examinerons les approches existantes dans le domaine des syste\u300mes ge\u301ne\u301ratifs, sur comment notre travail peut s\u2019inse\u301rer dans les pratiques de synthe\u300se sonore existantes, et que peut-on espe\u301rer de l\u2019hybridation de ces deux approches. Ensuite, nous nous focaliserons plus pre\u301cise\u301ment sur comment les re\u301centes avance\u301es accomplies dans ce domaine dans ce domaine peuvent e\u302tre exploite\u301es pour l\u2019apprentissage de distributions sonores complexes, tout en e\u301tant suffisamment flexibles pour e\u302tre inte\u301gre\u301es dans le processus cre\u301atif de l\u2019utilisateur. Nous proposons donc un processus d\u2019infe\u301rence / g\ue9n\ue9ration, refle\u301tant les paradigmes d\u2019analyse-synthe\u300se existant dans le domaine de ge\u301ne\u301ration audio, base\u301 sur l\u2019usage de mode\u300les latents continus que l\u2019on peut utiliser pour contro\u302ler la ge\u301ne\u301ration. Pour ce faire, nous e\u301tudierons de\u301ja\u300 les re\u301sultats pre\u301liminaires obtenus par cette me\u301thode sur l\u2019apprentissage de distributions spectrales, prises d\u2019ensembles de donne\u301es diversifie\u301s, en adoptant une approche a\u300 la fois quantitative et qualitative. Ensuite, nous proposerons d\u2019ame\u301liorer ces me\u301thodes de manie\u300re spe\u301cifique a\u300 l\u2019audio sur trois aspects distincts. D\u2019abord, nous proposons deux strate\u301gies de re\u301gularisation diffe\u301rentes pour l\u2019analyse de signaux audio : une base\u301e sur la traduction signal/ symbole, ainsi qu\u2019une autre base\u301e sur des contraintes perceptives. Nous passerons par la suite a\u300 la dimension temporelle de ces signaux audio, proposant de nouvelles me\u301thodes base\u301es sur l\u2019extraction de repre\u301sentations temporelles multi-e\u301chelle et sur une ta\u302che supple\u301mentaire de pre\u301diction, permettant la mode\u301lisation de caracte\u301ristiques dynamiques par les espaces ge\u301ne\u301ratifs obtenus. En dernier lieu, nous passerons d\u2019une approche scientifique a\u300 une approche plus oriente\u301e vers un point de vue recherche & cre\u301ation. Premie\u300rement, nous pre\u301senterons notre librairie open-source, vsacids, visant a\u300 e\u302tre employe\u301e par des cre\u301ateurs experts et non-experts comme un outil inte\u301gre\u301. Ensuite, nous proposons une premie\u300re utilisation musicale de notre syste\u300me par la cre\u301ation d\u2019une performance temps re\u301el, nomme\u301e \ue6go, base\u301e a\u300 la fois sur notre librarie et sur un agent d\u2019exploration appris dynamiquement par renforcement au cours de la performance. Enfin, nous tirons les conclusions du travail accompli jusqu\u2019a\u300 maintenant, concernant les possibles ame\u301liorations et de\u301veloppements de la me\u301thode de synthe\u300se propose\u301e, ainsi que sur de possibles applications cre\u301atives

    Models and Analysis of Vocal Emissions for Biomedical Applications

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    The MAVEBA Workshop proceedings, held on a biannual basis, collect the scientific papers presented both as oral and poster contributions, during the conference. The main subjects are: development of theoretical and mechanical models as an aid to the study of main phonatory dysfunctions, as well as the biomedical engineering methods for the analysis of voice signals and images, as a support to clinical diagnosis and classification of vocal pathologies

    A Statistical Approach to the Alignment of fMRI Data

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    Multi-subject functional Magnetic Resonance Image studies are critical. The anatomical and functional structure varies across subjects, so the image alignment is necessary. We define a probabilistic model to describe functional alignment. Imposing a prior distribution, as the matrix Fisher Von Mises distribution, of the orthogonal transformation parameter, the anatomical information is embedded in the estimation of the parameters, i.e., penalizing the combination of spatially distant voxels. Real applications show an improvement in the classification and interpretability of the results compared to various functional alignment methods

    A comparison of the CAR and DAGAR spatial random effects models with an application to diabetics rate estimation in Belgium

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    When hierarchically modelling an epidemiological phenomenon on a finite collection of sites in space, one must always take a latent spatial effect into account in order to capture the correlation structure that links the phenomenon to the territory. In this work, we compare two autoregressive spatial models that can be used for this purpose: the classical CAR model and the more recent DAGAR model. Differently from the former, the latter has a desirable property: its ρ parameter can be naturally interpreted as the average neighbor pair correlation and, in addition, this parameter can be directly estimated when the effect is modelled using a DAGAR rather than a CAR structure. As an application, we model the diabetics rate in Belgium in 2014 and show the adequacy of these models in predicting the response variable when no covariates are available
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