Climate change impact on China food security in 2050

Climate change is now affecting global agriculture and food production worldwide. Nonetheless the direct link between climate change and food security at the national scale is poorly understood. Here we simulated the effect of climate change on food security in China using the CERES crop models and the IPCC SRES A2 and B2 scenarios including CO2 fertilization effect. Models took into account population size, urbanization rate, cropland area, cropping intensity and technology development. Our results predict that food crop yield will increase +3-11 % under A2 scenario and +4 % under B2 scenario during 2030-2050, despite disparities among individual crops. As a consequence China will be able to achieve a production of 572 and 615 MT in 2030, then 635 and 646 MT in 2050 under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2030 the food security index (FSI) will drop from +24 % in 2009 to -4.5 % and +10.2 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively. In 2050, however, the FSI is predicted to increase to +7.1 % and +20.0 % under A2 and B2 scenarios, respectively, but this increase will be achieved only with the projected decrease of Chinese population. We conclude that 1) the proposed food security index is a simple yet powerful tool for food security analysis; (2) yield growth rate is a much better indicator of food security than yield per se; and (3) climate change only has a moderate positive effect on food security as compared to other factors such as cropland area, population growth, socio-economic pathway and technology development. Relevant policy options and research topics are suggested accordingly

Contributions of natural and human factors to increases in vegetation productivity in China

Increasing trends in vegetation productivity have been identified for the last three decades for many regions in the northern hemisphere including China. Multiple natural and human factors are possibly responsible for the increases in vegetation productivity, while their relative contributions remain unclear. Here we analyzed the long-term trends in vegetation productivity in China using the satellite-derived normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and assessed the relationships of NDVI with a suite of natural (air temperature, precipitation, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, and nitrogen (N) deposition) and human (afforestation and improved agricultural management practices) factors. Overall, China exhibited an increasing trend in vegetation productivity with an increase of 2.7%. At the provincial scale, eleven provinces exhibited significant increases in vegetation productivity, and the majority of these provinces are located within the northern half of the country. At the national scale, annual air temperature was most closely related to NDVI and explained 36.8% of the variance in NDVI, followed by afforestation (25.5%) and crop yield (15.8%). Altogether, temperature, total forest plantation area, and crop yield explained 78.1% of the variance in vegetation productivity at the national scale, while precipitation, PAR, atmospheric CO2 concentrations, and N deposition made no significant contribution to the increases in vegetation productivity. At the provincial scale, each factor explained a part of the variance in NDVI for some provinces, and the increases in NDVI for many provinces could be attributed to the combined effects of multiple factors. Crop yield and PAR were correlated with NDVI for more provinces than were other factors, indicating that both elevated crop yield resulting from improved agricultural management practices and increasing diffuse radiation were more important than other factors in increasing vegetation productivity at the provincial scale. The relative effects of the natural and human factors on vegetation productivity varied with spatial scale. The true contributions of multiple factors can be obscured by the correlation among these variables, and it is essential to examine the contribution of each factor while controlling for other factors. Future changes in climate and human activities will likely have larger influences on vegetation productivity in China

Impacts of natural factors and farming practices on greenhouse gas emissions in the North China Plain : A meta-analysis

This work received support from the National Science and Technology Support Program (No. 2012BAD14B01), the National 948 Project (No. 2011-G30), and the Non-profit Research Foundation for Agriculture (201103039). Thanks are expressed to the anonymous reviewers for their helpful comments and suggestions that greatly improved the manuscript. The authors declare that they have no competing interests.Peer reviewedPublisher PD

Evaluating maize genotype performance under low nitrogen conditions using RGB UAV phenotyping techniques

Maize is the most cultivated cereal in Africa in terms of land area and production, but low soil nitrogen availability often constrains yields. Developing new maize varieties with high and reliable yields using traditional crop breeding techniques in field conditions can be slow and costly. Remote sensing has become an important tool in the modernization of field-based high-throughput plant phenotyping (HTPP), providing faster gains towards the improvement of yield potential and adaptation to abiotic and biotic limiting conditions. We evaluated the performance of a set of remote sensing indices derived from red–green–blue (RGB) images along with field-based multispectral normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and leaf chlorophyll content (SPAD values) as phenotypic traits for assessing maize performance under managed low-nitrogen conditions. HTPP measurements were conducted from the ground and from an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV). For the ground-level RGB indices, the strongest correlations to yield were observed with hue, greener green area (GGA), and a newly developed RGB HTPP index, NDLab (normalized difference Commission Internationale de I´Edairage (CIE)Lab index), while GGA and crop senescence index (CSI) correlated better with grain yield from the UAV. Regarding ground sensors, SPAD exhibited the closest correlation with grain yield, notably increasing in its correlation when measured in the vegetative stage. Additionally, we evaluated how different HTPP indices contributed to the explanation of yield in combination with agronomic data, such as anthesis silking interval (ASI), anthesis date (AD), and plant height (PH). Multivariate regression models, including RGB indices (R2 > 0.60), outperformed other models using only agronomic parameters or field sensors (R2 > 0.50), reinforcing RGB HTPP’s potential to improve yield assessments. Finally, we compared the low-N results to the same panel of 64 maize genotypes grown under optimal conditions, noting that only 11% of the total genotypes appeared in the highest yield producing quartile for both trials. Furthermore, we calculated the grain yield loss index (GYLI) for each genotype, which showed a large range of variability, suggesting that low-N performance is not necessarily exclusive of high productivity in optimal conditions.This research and APC was funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and USAID Stress Tolerant Maize for Africa program, grant number [OPP1134248], and the MAIZE CGIAR research program. The CGIAR Research Program MAIZE receives W1&W2 support from the Governments of Australia, Belgium, Canada, China, France, India, Japan, Korea, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, U.K., U.S., and the World Bank

Agriculture intensifies soil moisture decline in Northern China

Northern China is one of the most densely populated regions in the world. Agricultural activities have intensified since the 1980s to provide food security to the country. However, this intensification has likely contributed to an increasing scarcity in water resources, which may in turn be endangering food security. Based on in-situ measurements of soil moisture collected in agricultural plots during 1983–2012, we find that topsoil (0–50cm) volumetric water content during the growing season has declined significantly (p < 0.01), with a trend of −0.011 to −0.015 m3 m−3 per decade. Observed discharge declines for the three large river basins are consistent with the effects of agricultural intensification, although other factors (e.g. dam constructions) likely have contributed to these trends. Practices like fertilizer application have favoured biomass growth and increased transpiration rates, thus reducing available soil water. In addition, the rapid proliferation of water-expensive crops (e.g., maize) and the expansion of the area dedicated to food production have also contributed to soil drying. Adoption of alternative agricultural practices that can meet the immediate food demand without compromising future water resources seem critical for the sustainability of the food production system

Design of temperature insurance index and risk zonation for single-season rice in response to high-temperature and low-temperature damage: a case study of Jiangsu Province, China.

Disaster insurance is an important tool for achieving sustainable development in modern agriculture. However, in China, the design of such insurance indexes is far from sufficient. In this paper, the single-season rice in Jiangsu Province of China is taken as an example to design the high-temperature damage index in summer and the low-temperature damage index in autumn to constructtheformulacalculatingtheweatheroutputandsingle-seasonriceyieldreduction. Thedaily highest, lowest and average temperatures between 1999 and 2015 are selected as main variables for the temperature disaster index to quantitatively analyze the relationship between the temperature indexandtheyieldreductionrateofthesingle-seasonrice. Thetemperaturedisasterindexcanbeput into the relevant model to obtain the yield reduction rate of the year and determine whether to pay the indemnity. Then, the burn analysis is used to determine the insurance premium rate for all cities in Jiangsu Province under four-level deductibles, and the insurance premium rate can be used for the risk division of the Province. The research provides some insights for the design of agricultural weather insurance products, and the empirical results provide a reference for the design of similar single-season rice temperature index insurance products

Modeling nitrogen loadings from agricultural soils in southwest China with modified DNDC

Degradation of water quality has been widely observed in China, and loadings of nitrogen (N) and other nutrients from agricultural systems play a key role in the water contamination. Process‐based biogeochemical models have been applied to quantify nutrient loading from nonpoint sources at the watershed scale. However, this effort is often hindered by the fact that few existing biogeochemical models of nutrient cycling are able to simulate the two‐dimensional soil hydrology. To overcome this challenge, we launched a new attempt to incorporate two fundamental hydrologic features, the Soil Conservation Service curve and the Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation functions, into a biogeochemistry model, Denitrification‐Decomposition (DNDC). These two features have been widely utilized to quantify surface runoff and soil erosion in a suite of hydrologic models. We incorporated these features in the DNDC model to allow the biogeochemical and hydrologic processes to exchange data at a daily time step. By including the new features, DNDC gained the additional ability to simulate both horizontal and vertical movements of water and nutrients. The revised DNDC was tested against data sets observed in a small watershed dominated by farmlands in a mountainous area of southwest China. The modeled surface runoff flow, subsurface drainage flow, sediment yield, and N loading were in agreement with observations. To further observe the behaviors of the new model, we conducted a sensitivity test with varied climate, soil, and management conditions. The results indicated that precipitation was the most sensitive factor determining the rate of N loading from the tested site. A Monte Carlo test was conducted to quantify the potential uncertainty derived by variations in four selected input parameters. This study demonstrates that it is feasible and effective to use enhanced biogeochemical models such as DNDC for quantifying N loadings by incorporating basic hydrological features into the model framework