Ranking robustness and its application to evacuation planning

We present a new approach to handle uncertain combinatorial optimization problems that uses solution ranking procedures to determine the degree of robustness of a solution. Unlike classic concepts for robust optimization, our approach is not purely based on absolute quantitative performance, but also includes qualitative aspects that are of major importance for the decision maker. We discuss the two variants, solution ranking and objective ranking robustness, in more detail, presenting problem complexities and solution approaches. Using an uncertain shortest path problem as a computational example, the potential of our approach is demonstrated in the context of evacuation planning due to river flooding

Ranking robustness and its application to evacuation planning

We present a new approach to handle uncertain combinatorial optimization problems that uses solution ranking procedures to determine the degree of robustness of a solution. Unlike classic concepts for robust optimization, our approach is not purely based on absolute quantitative performance, but also includes qualitative aspects that are of major importance for the decision maker. We discuss the two variants, solution ranking and objective ranking robustness, in more detail, presenting problem complexities and solution approaches. Using an uncertain shortest path problem as a computational example, the potential of our approach is demonstrated in the context of evacuation planning due to river flooding

Seismic risk of Open Spaces in Historic Built Environments: A matrix-based approach for emergency management and disaster response

Abstract Earthquakes affect the safety of the users hosted in both indoor and outdoor urban built environments, especially in Historic Built Environments (HBEs). Many full HBE-scale risk-assessment methods are defined, while methodologies oriented to local analysis of meso-scale elements, such as Open Spaces (OSs), are still limited. Nevertheless, OSs play a crucial role in the first emergency phases, like in the evacuation process, since they host emergency paths and gathering areas. The seismic risk of an OS mainly depends on the combination of the damage suffered from facing buildings and the exposure, which mainly refers to the quantification of human lives. Damage levels result from the combination of vulnerability and hazard-related issues, while exposure is essentially affected by the number of OS users, whose spatial distribution is strongly time-dependent. Methods to quickly combine these issues are needed, especially in view of the deeper insights for the implementation of risk-reduction strategies (i.e. according to simulation-based approaches). This work offers a novel methodology to quickly perform Seismic Risk Assessment and Management of an OS by correlating damage levels to exposure-related issues. The method is composed of two specific matrices, which are developed according to quick literature-based approaches prone to rapid meso-scale applications in HBEs, also by non-expert technicians. The "damage matrix" links the site hazard to the building vulnerability. The assessed damage levels are combined with the users' exposure into the "consequences matrix", to estimate the risk in emergency conditions for the OS users, thus supporting decision-makers in promoting robustness/preparedness strategies

Performance Measures to Assess Resiliency and Efficiency of Transit Systems

Transit agencies are interested in assessing the short-, mid-, and long-term performance of infrastructure with the objective of enhancing resiliency and efficiency. This report addresses three distinct aspects of New Jersey’s Transit System: 1) resiliency of bridge infrastructure, 2) resiliency of public transit systems, and 3) efficiency of transit systems with an emphasis on paratransit service. This project proposed a conceptual framework to assess the performance and resiliency for bridge structures in a transit network before and after disasters utilizing structural health monitoring (SHM), finite element (FE) modeling and remote sensing using Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR). The public transit systems in NY/NJ were analyzed based on their vulnerability, resiliency, and efficiency in recovery following a major natural disaster

Analytic prioritization of indoor routes for search and rescue operations in hazardous environments

Applications to prioritize indoor routes for emergency situations in a complex built facility have been restricted to building simulations and network approaches. These types of applications often failed to account for the complexity and trade-offs needed to select the optimal indoor path during an emergency situation. In this article, we propose a step change for finding the optimal routes for Search And Rescue (SAR) teams in a building, where a multi-epicentre extreme event is occurring. We have developed an algorithm that is based on a novel approach integrating the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), statistical characteristics, the propagation of hazard, Duckham-Kulik’s adapted algorithm, Dijkstra's classical algorithm, and the binary search with three criteria: hazard proximity, distance/travel time, and route complexity. The sub-criteria for the route complexity are validated in the context of SAR using a real-life building (Doha World Trade Centre). The important feature of the algorithm is its ability to generate an optimal route depending on user’s needs. The findings revealed that the generated optimal routes are indeed the ‘best’ trade-off amongst distance/travel time, hazard proximity and route complexity. The test results also demonstrated the robustness of the algorithm with respect to different parameters, and its insensitivity to different scenarios of uncontrolled evacuation

Towards improved management of coastal submersion crises - CRISMA-WAVE solution as an example of CRISMA Framework application

Coping with various types of natural or man-made hazards the FP7 SECURITY CRISMA project (http://www.crisrnaprojecteu) has designed and developed an experimental software framework allowing building crisis management simulation application. One of the five pilot applications of CRISMA dealing with preparedness to the coastal submersions was developed and implemented using return of experience of the reference Xynthia storm surge event in the Charente Maritime County in France. The paper addresses the generic CRISMA Framework applicability to simulate mitigation effects of a coastal submersion through CRISMA-Wave implementation of a full modelling cycle. The CRISMA-Wave paradigm reflects user needs for simulation of "what-if" scenarios for short and long-term actions and the paper describes in particular its different components : *Simulation of submersion effects at a range of temporal and spatial scales, *Preparedness Planning, *Assessment of impacts depending on scenarios based on options for managing the inundation risks, *Cascading effects and *Evaluation of damages with comparison of submersion defence scenarios based on cost-benefit and multi criteria analysis

Case-Based Decision Support for Disaster Management

Disasters are characterized by severe disruptions of the society’s functionality and adverse impacts on humans, the environment, and economy that cannot be coped with by society using its own resources. This work presents a decision support method that identifies appropriate measures for protecting the public in the course of a nuclear accident. The method particularly considers the issue of uncertainty in decision-making as well as the structured integration of experience and expert knowledge

The Evaluation of Temporary Shelter Areas Locations Using Geographic Information System and Analytic Hierarchy Process

Earthquakes are notorious as devastating natural disasters that can result in tragic fatalities and economic loss. The building of earthquake evacuation shelters is an effective way to reduce earthquake consequences and protect lives. In present study, analytic hierarchy process (AHP) was applied as a multiple criteria of decision making (MCDM) method to investigate different shelter sites that belong to a disaster-prone area of the north of Iran. The principles of vulnerable areas, access to roads, firefighting centers, populated areas, fault lines, and medical centers were considered to determine optimal temporary shelter areas locations. With the support of a geographic information system (GIS), the method comprised three steps, i.e. selecting candidate shelters, analyzing the spatial coverage of the shelters, and determining the shelter locations. Finally, a case study was used to demonstrate the application of the multi-criteria model and the corresponding solution method and their effectiveness in planning urban earthquake evacuation shelters. It was found that the “distance from fault line” criterion of 0.429 could be the most effective factor along the others