Flame filtering and perimeter localization of wildfires using aerial thermal imagery

Airborne thermal infrared (TIR) imaging systems are being increasingly used for wild fire tactical monitoring since they show important advantages over spaceborne platforms and visible sensors while becoming much more affordable and much lighter than multispectral cameras. However, the analysis of aerial TIR images entails a number of difficulties which have thus far prevented monitoring tasks from being totally automated. One of these issues that needs to be addressed is the appearance of flame projections during the geo-correction of off-nadir images. Filtering these flames is essential in order to accurately estimate the geographical location of the fuel burning interface. Therefore, we present a methodology which allows the automatic localisation of the active fire contour free of flame projections. The actively burning area is detected in TIR georeferenced images through a combination of intensity thresholding techniques, morphological processing and active contours. Subsequently, flame projections are filtered out by the temporal frequency analysis of the appropriate contour descriptors. The proposed algorithm was tested on footages acquired during three large-scale field experimental burns. Results suggest this methodology may be suitable to automatise the acquisition of quantitative data about the fire evolution. As future work, a revision of the low-pass filter implemented for the temporal analysis (currently a median filter) was recommended. The availability of up-to-date information about the fire state would improve situational awareness during an emergency response and may be used to calibrate data-driven simulators capable of emitting short-term accurate forecasts of the subsequent fire evolution.Postprint (author's final draft

Wireless sensor data processing for on-site emergency response

This thesis is concerned with the problem of processing data from Wireless Sensor Networks (WSNs) to meet the requirements of emergency responders (e.g. Fire and Rescue Services). A WSN typically consists of spatially distributed sensor nodes to cooperatively monitor the physical or environmental conditions. Sensor data about the physical or environmental conditions can then be used as part of the input to predict, detect, and monitor emergencies. Although WSNs have demonstrated their great potential in facilitating Emergency Response, sensor data cannot be interpreted directly due to its large volume, noise, and redundancy. In addition, emergency responders are not interested in raw data, they are interested in the meaning it conveys. This thesis presents research on processing and combining data from multiple types of sensors, and combining sensor data with other relevant data, for the purpose of obtaining data of greater quality and information of greater relevance to emergency responders. The current theory and practice in Emergency Response and the existing technology aids were reviewed to identify the requirements from both application and technology perspectives (Chapter 2). The detailed process of information extraction from sensor data and sensor data fusion techniques were reviewed to identify what constitutes suitable sensor data fusion techniques and challenges presented in sensor data processing (Chapter 3). A study of Incident Commanders’ requirements utilised a goal-driven task analysis method to identify gaps in current means of obtaining relevant information during response to fire emergencies and a list of opportunities for WSN technology to fill those gaps (Chapter 4). A high-level Emergency Information Management System Architecture was proposed, including the main components that are needed, the interaction between components, and system function specification at different incident stages (Chapter 5). A set of state-awareness rules was proposed, and integrated with Kalman Filter to improve the performance of filtering. The proposed data pre-processing approach achieved both improved outlier removal and quick detection of real events (Chapter 6). A data storage mechanism was proposed to support timely response to queries regardless of the increase in volume of data (Chapter 7). What can be considered as “meaning” (e.g. events) for emergency responders were identified and a generic emergency event detection model was proposed to identify patterns presenting in sensor data and associate patterns with events (Chapter 8). In conclusion, the added benefits that the technical work can provide to the current Emergency Response is discussed and specific contributions and future work are highlighted (Chapter 9)

Assimilation of Perimeter Data and Coupling with Fuel Moisture in a Wildland Fire - Atmosphere DDDAS

We present a methodology to change the state of the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with the fire spread code SFIRE, based on Rothermel's formula and the level set method, and with a fuel moisture model. The fire perimeter in the model changes in response to data while the model is running. However, the atmosphere state takes time to develop in response to the forcing by the heat flux from the fire. Therefore, an artificial fire history is created from an earlier fire perimeter to the new perimeter, and replayed with the proper heat fluxes to allow the atmosphere state to adjust. The method is an extension of an earlier method to start the coupled fire model from a developed fire perimeter rather than an ignition point. The level set method is also used to identify parameters of the simulation, such as the spread rate and the fuel moisture. The coupled model is available from openwfm.org, and it extends the WRF-Fire code in WRF release.Comment: ICCS 2012, 10 pages; corrected some DOI typesetting in the reference

Detection and Localisation of Pipe Bursts in a District Metered Area Using an Online Hydraulic Model

This thesis presents a research work on the development of new methodology for near-real-time detection and localisation of pipe bursts in a Water Distribution System (WDS) at the District Meters Area (DMA) level. The methodology makes use of online hydraulic model coupled with a demand forecasting methodology and several statistical techniques to process the hydraulic meters data (i.e., flows and pressures) coming from the field at regular time intervals (i.e. every 15 minutes). Once the detection part of the methodology identifies a potential burst occurrence in a system it raises an alarm. This is followed by the application of the burst localisation methodology to approximately locate the event within the District Metered Area (DMA). The online hydraulic model is based on data assimilation methodology coupled with a short-term Water Demand Forecasting Model (WDFM) based on Multi-Linear Regression. Three data assimilation methods were tested in the thesis, namely the iterative Kalman Filter method, the Ensemble Kalman Filter method and the Particle Filter method. The iterative Kalman Filter (i-KF) method was eventually chosen for the online hydraulic model based on the best overall trade-off between water system state prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. The online hydraulic model created this way was coupled with the Statistical Process Control (SPC) technique and a newly developed burst detection metric based on the moving average residuals between the predicted and observed hydraulic states (flows/pressures). Two new SPC-based charts with associated generic set of control rules for analysing burst detection metric values over consecutive time steps were introduced to raise burst alarms in a reliable and timely fashion. The SPC rules and relevant thresholds were determined offline by performing appropriate statistical analysis of residuals. The above was followed by the development of the new methodology for online burst localisation. The methodology integrates the information on burst detection metric values obtained during the detection stage with the new sensitivity matrix developed offline and hydraulic model runs used to simulate potential bursts to identify the most likely burst location in the pipe network. A new data algorithm for estimating the ‘normal’ DMA demand and burst flow during the burst period is developed and used for localisation. A new data algorithm for statistical analysis of flow and pressure data was also developed and used to determine the approximate burst area by producing a list of top ten suspected burst location nodes. The above novel methodologies for burst detection and localisation were applied to two real-life District Metred Areas in the United Kingdom (UK) with artificially generated flow and pressure observations and assumed bursts. The results obtained this way show that the developed methodology detects pipe bursts in a reliable and timely fashion, provides good estimate of a burst flow and accurately approximately locates the burst within a DMA. In addition, the results obtained show the potential of the methodology described here for online burst detection and localisation in assisting Water Companies (WCs) to conserve water, save energy and money. It can also enhance the UK WCs’ profile customer satisfaction, improve operational efficiency and improve the OFWAT’s Service Incentive Mechanism (SIM) scores.This STREAM project is funded by the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and Industrial Collaborator, United Utilities

Short-term fire front spread prediction using inverse modelling and airborne infrared images

A wildfire forecasting tool capable of estimating the fire perimeter position sufficiently in advance of the actual fire arrival will assist firefighting operations and optimise available resources. However, owing to limited knowledge of fire event characteristics (e.g. fuel distribution and characteristics, weather variability) and the short time available to deliver a forecast, most of the current models only provide a rough approximation of the forthcoming fire positions and dynamics. The problem can be tackled by coupling data assimilation and inverse modelling techniques. We present an inverse modelling-based algorithm that uses infrared airborne images to forecast short-term wildfire dynamics with a positive lead time. The algorithm is applied to two real-scale mallee-heath shrubland fire experiments, of 9 and 25 ha, successfully forecasting the fire perimeter shape and position in the short term. Forecast dependency on the assimilation windows is explored to prepare the system to meet real scenario constraints. It is envisaged the system will be applied at larger time and space scales.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

A wildland fire model with data assimilation

A wildfire model is formulated based on balance equations for energy and fuel, where the fuel loss due to combustion corresponds to the fuel reaction rate. The resulting coupled partial differential equations have coefficients that can be approximated from prior measurements of wildfires. An ensemble Kalman filter technique with regularization is then used to assimilate temperatures measured at selected points into running wildfire simulations. The assimilation technique is able to modify the simulations to track the measurements correctly even if the simulations were started with an erroneous ignition location that is quite far away from the correct one.Comment: 35 pages, 12 figures; minor revision January 2008. Original version available from http://www-math.cudenver.edu/ccm/report

Data Driven Computing by the Morphing Fast Fourier Transform Ensemble Kalman Filter in Epidemic Spread Simulations

The FFT EnKF data assimilation method is proposed and applied to a stochastic cell simulation of an epidemic, based on the S-I-R spread model. The FFT EnKF combines spatial statistics and ensemble filtering methodologies into a localized and computationally inexpensive version of EnKF with a very small ensemble, and it is further combined with the morphing EnKF to assimilate changes in the position of the epidemic.Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures. Submitted to ICCS 201