Optimal replacement in the proportional hazards model and its applications in a product-service system

Condition-based maintenance is rapidly gaining favor as a way to prevent the failures of capital-intensive assets and to maintain them in good operating condition with minimum cost. A valuable and increasingly prevalent way to incorporate condition information into risk estimation is by the proportional hazards model (PHM), which explicitly includes both the age and the condition information in the calculation of the hazard function. This dissertation consists of three papers, in which the optimal replacement policies for systems whose deterioration process follows the PHM are developed under different settings; and a joint optimization of the asset and inventory management problem in the context of a product-service system is considered. In the first paper, a continuous time Markov covariate process is assumed to describe the condition of a system that is under periodic monitoring. Although the form of an optimal replacement policy for such a system in the PHM was developed previously, an approximation of the Markov process as constant within inspection intervals led to a counter-intuitive result that less frequent monitoring could yield a replacement policy with lower average cost. Accounting for possible state transitions between inspection epochs removes the approximation and eliminates the cost anomaly. A new recursive procedure to obtain the parameters of the optimal replacement policy is presented. By comparing the replacement and monitoring costs of different monitoring scheme, the value of condition information is evaluated. In the second paper, the optimal replacement policy for systems in the PHM with semi-Markovian covariate process and continuous monitoring is developed. Numerical examples and sensitivity analysis provide some insights about the suitability of a Markov approximation and the impact of the variations in the input parameters on the cost. In applying the optimal replacement policies to a product-service system, where the producers provide the use of the products to customers while retaining ownership, the coupling between the decision making for preventive replacement and the decision making for inventory management is evident. In the third paper, an integrated model is proposed for the preventive maintenance of a fleet of products and the inventory management of a hybrid manufacturing-remanufacturing system in the context of a product-service system. A joint optimization technique is developed to obtain the optimal parameters for the operational policy of the integrated model to minimize the long run average cost per unit time. In addition, the effect of the assumption that the replaced products are not sorted is evaluated

Optimal maintenance of multi-component systems: a review

In this article we give an overview of the literature on multi-component maintenance optimization. We focus on work appearing since the 1991 survey "A survey of maintenance models for multi-unit systems" by Cho and Parlar. This paper builds forth on the review article by Dekker et al. (1996), which focusses on economic dependence, and the survey of maintenance policies by Wang (2002), in which some group maintenance and some opportunistic maintenance policies are considered. Our classification scheme is primarily based on the dependence between components (stochastic, structural or economic). Next, we also classify the papers on the basis of the planning aspect (short-term vs long-term), the grouping of maintenance activities (either grouping preventive or corrective maintenance, or opportunistic grouping) and the optimization approach used (heuristic, policy classes or exact algorithms). Finally, we pay attention to the applications of the models.literature review;economic dependence;failure interaction;maintenance policies;grouping maintenance;multi-component systems;opportunistic maintenance;maintencance optimization;structural dependence

Value of condition monitoring for optimal replacement in the proportional hazards model with continuous degradation

This article investigates the value of perfect monitoring information for optimal replacement of deteriorating systems in the Proportional Hazards Model (PHM). A continuous-time Markov chain describes the condition of the system. Although the form of an optimal replacement policy for system under periodic monitoring in the PHM was developed previously, an approximation of the Markov process as constant within inspection intervals led to a counter intuitive result that less frequent monitoring could yield a replacement policy with lower average cost. This article explicitly accounts for possible state transitions between inspection epochs to remove the approximation and eliminate the cost anomaly. However, the mathematical evaluation becomes significantly more complicated. To overcome this difficulty, a new recursive procedure to obtain the parameters of the optimal replacement policy and the optimal average cost is presented. A numerical example is provided to illustrate the computational procedure and the value of condition monitoring. By taking the monitoring cost into consideration, the relationships between the unit cost of periodic monitoring and the upfront cost of continuous monitoring under which the continuous, periodic, or no monitoring scheme is optimal are obtained

A joint optimal policy of inspection and age based replacement based on a three-stage failure process

Preventive maintenance (PM) and condition-based maintenance (CBM) are two dominant maintenance policies in industrial applications. Inspection activities are the foundation of PM and CBM policies as to provide the operating information of system through processing the collected vibration data. Age based replacement is one of the most used preventive maintenance policy aiming at avoiding unplanned downtime and higher failure loss. This paper proposes a joint optimal policy of inspection and age based replacement based on a three-stage failure process for a single component system. The three-stage failure process, which is closer to reality, divides the failure process of system into three stages: namely normal, minor defective and severe defective. When the severe defective stage is identified, maintenance action is carried out immediately. The system is replaced once it reaches certain age. However, two potential actions are considered and analyzed in this paper when the minor defective stage is identified: halving the subsequent inspection interval or replacing the item immediately. As inspection may not be perfect because of the complexity of plant items, both perfect and imperfect inspection cases are considered. Finally, a case study is presented to demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed models

Optimal Cost-Effective Maintenance Policy for a Helicopter Gearbox Early Fault Detection under Varying Load

Most of the existing fault detection methods rarely consider the cost-optimal maintenance policy. A novel multivariate Bayesian control approach is proposed, which enables the implementation of early fault detection for a helicopter gearbox with cost minimization maintenance policy under varying load. A continuous time hidden semi-Markov model (HSMM) is employed to describe the stochastic relationship between the unobservable states and observable observations of the gear system. Explicit expressions for the remaining useful life prediction are derived using HSMM. Considering the maintenance cost in fault detection, the multivariate Bayesian control scheme based on HSMM is developed; the objective is to minimize the long-run expected average cost per unit time. An effective computational algorithm in the semi-Markov decision process (SMDP) framework is designed to obtain the optimal control limit. A comparison with the multivariate Bayesian control chart based on hidden Markov model (HMM) and the traditional age-based replacement policy is given, which illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach

Optimal maintenance of multi-component systems: a review

In this article we give an overview of the literature on multi-component maintenance optimization. We focus on work appearing since the 1991 survey "A survey of maintenance models for multi-unit systems" by Cho and Parlar. This paper builds forth on the review article by Dekker et al. (1996), which focusses on economic dependence, and the survey of maintenance policies by Wang (2002), in which some group maintenance and some opportunistic maintenance policies are considered. Our classification scheme is primarily based on the dependence between components (stochastic, structural or economic). Next, we also classify the papers on the basis of the planning aspect (short-term vs long-term), the grouping of maintenance activities (either grouping preventive or corrective maintenance, or opportunistic grouping) and the optimization approach used (heuristic, policy classes or exact algorithms). Finally, we pay attention to the applications of the models

Modelo de apoio à decisão para a manutenção condicionada de equipamentos produtivos

Doctoral Thesis for PhD degree in Industrial and Systems EngineeringIntroduction: This thesis describes a methodology to combine Bayesian control chart and CBM (Condition-Based Maintenance) for developing a new integrated model. In maintenance management, it is a challenging task for decision-maker to conduct an appropriate and accurate decision. Proper and well-performed CBM models are beneficial for maintenance decision making. The integration of Bayesian control chart and CBM is considered as an intelligent model and a suitable strategy for forecasting items failures as well as allow providing an effectiveness maintenance cost. CBM models provides lower inventory costs for spare parts, reduces unplanned outage, and minimize the risk of catastrophic failure, avoiding high penalties associated with losses of production or delays, increasing availability. However, CBM models need new aspects and the integration of new type of information in maintenance modeling that can improve the results. Objective: The thesis aims to develop a new methodology based on Bayesian control chart for predicting failures of item incorporating simultaneously two types of data: key quality control measurement and equipment condition parameters. In other words, the project research questions are directed to give the lower maintenance costs for real process control. Method: The mathematical approach carried out in this study for developing an optimal Condition Based Maintenance policy included the Weibull analysis for verifying the Markov property, Delay time concept used for deterioration modeling and PSO and Monte Carlo simulation. These models are used for finding the upper control limit and the interval monitoring that minimizes the (maintenance) cost function. Result: The main contribution of this thesis is that the proposed model performs better than previous models in which the hypothesis of using simultaneously data about condition equipment parameters and quality control measurements improve the effectiveness of integrated model Bayesian control chart for Condition Based Maintenance.Introdução: Esta tese descreve uma metodologia para combinar Bayesian control chart e CBM (Condition- Based Maintenance) para desenvolver um novo modelo integrado. Na gestão da manutenção, é importante que o decisor possa tomar decisões apropriadas e corretas. Modelos CBM bem concebidos serão muito benéficos nas tomadas de decisão sobre manutenção. A integração dos gráficos de controlo Bayesian e CBM é considerada um modelo inteligente e uma estratégica adequada para prever as falhas de componentes bem como produzir um controlo de custos de manutenção. Os modelos CBM conseguem definir custos de inventário mais baixos para as partes de substituição, reduzem interrupções não planeadas e minimizam o risco de falhas catastróficas, evitando elevadas penalizações associadas a perdas de produção ou atrasos, aumentando a disponibilidade. Contudo, os modelos CBM precisam de alterações e a integração de novos tipos de informação na modelação de manutenção que permitam melhorar os resultados.Objetivos: Esta tese pretende desenvolver uma nova metodologia baseada Bayesian control chart para prever as falhas de partes, incorporando dois tipos de dados: medições-chave de controlo de qualidade e parâmetros de condição do equipamento. Por outras palavras, as questões de investigação são direcionadas para diminuir custos de manutenção no processo de controlo.Métodos: Os modelos matemáticos implementados neste estudo para desenvolver uma política ótima de CBM incluíram a análise de Weibull para verificação da propriedade de Markov, conceito de atraso de tempo para a modelação da deterioração, PSO e simulação de Monte Carlo. Estes modelos são usados para encontrar o limite superior de controlo e o intervalo de monotorização para minimizar a função de custos de manutenção.Resultados: A principal contribuição desta tese é que o modelo proposto melhora os resultados dos modelos anteriores, baseando-se na hipótese de que, usando simultaneamente dados dos parâmetros dos equipamentos e medições de controlo de qualidade. Assim obtém-se uma melhoria a eficácia do modelo integrado de Bayesian control chart para a manutenção condicionada

A review of multi-component maintenance models with economic dependence

In this paper we review the literature on multi-component maintenance models with economic dependence. The emphasis is on papers that appeared after 1991, but there is an overlap with Section 2 of the most recent review paper by Cho and Parlar (1991). We distinguish between stationary models, where a long-term stable situation is assumed, and dynamic models, which can take information into account that becomes available only on the short term. Within the stationary models we choose a classification scheme that is primarily based on the various options of grouping maintenance activities: grouping either corrective or preventive maintenance, or combining preventive-maintenance actions with corrective actions. As such, this classification links up with the possibilities for grouped maintenance activities that exist in practice

Joint maintenance-inventory optimisation of parallel production systems

We model a joint inspection and spare parts inventory policy for maintaining machines in a parallel system, where simultaneous downtime seriously impacts upon production performance and has a significant financial consequence. This dependency between system components means that analysis of realistic maintenance models is intractable. Therefore we use simulation and a numerical optimisation tool to study the cost-optimality of several policies. Inspection maintenance is modelled using the delay-time concept. Critical spare parts replenishment is considered using several variants of a periodic review policy. In particular, our results indicate that the cost-optimal policy is characterised by equal frequencies of inspection and replenishment, and delivery of spare parts that coincides with maintenance intervention. In general, our model provides a framework for studying the interaction of spare parts ordering with maintenance scheduling. The sensitivity analysis that we present offers insights for the effective management of such parallel systems, not only in a paper-making plant, which motivates our modelling development, but also in other manufacturing contexts