Sensitivity analysis of the variable demand probit stochastic user equilibrium with multiple user classes

This paper presents a formulation of the multiple user class, variable demand, probit stochastic user equilibrium model. Sufficient conditions are stated for differentiability of the equilibrium flows of this model. This justifies the derivation of sensitivity expressions for the equilibrium flows, which are presented in a format that can be implemented in commercially available software. A numerical example verifies the sensitivity expressions, and that this formulation is applicable to large networks

Price of Anarchy for Non-atomic Congestion Games with Stochastic Demands

We generalize the notions of user equilibrium and system optimum to non-atomic congestion games with stochastic demands. We establish upper bounds on the price of anarchy for three different settings of link cost functions and demand distributions, namely, (a) affine cost functions and general distributions, (b) polynomial cost functions and general positive-valued distributions, and (c) polynomial cost functions and the normal distributions. All the upper bounds are tight in some special cases, including the case of deterministic demands.Comment: 31 page

A two-stage stochastic transportation problem with fixed handling costs and a priori selection of the distribution channels

In this paper, a transportation problem comprising stochastic demands, fixed handling costs at the origins, and fixed costs associated with the links is addressed. It is assumed that uncertainty is adequately captured via a finite set of scenarios. The problem is formulated as a two-stage stochastic program. The goal is to minimize the total cost associated with the selected links plus the expected transportation and fixed handling costs. A prototype problem is initially presented which is then progressively extended to accommodate capacities at the origins and multiple commodities. The results of an extensive set of computational tests are reported and discussed

User equilibrium traffic network assignment with stochastic travel times and late arrival penalty

The classical Wardrop user equilibrium (UE) assignment model assumes traveller choices are based on fixed, known travel times, yet these times are known to be rather variable between trips, both within and between days; typically, then, only mean travel times are represented. Classical stochastic user equilibrium (SUE) methods allow the mean travel times to be differentially perceived across the population, yet in a conventional application neither the UE or SUE approach recognises the travel times to be inherently variable. That is to say, there is no recognition that drivers risk arriving late at their destinations, and that this risk may vary across different paths of the network and according to the arrival time flexibility of the traveller. Recent work on incorporating risky elements into the choice process is seen either to neglect the link to the arrival constraints of the traveller, or to apply only to restricted problems with parallel alternatives and inflexible travel time distributions. In the paper, an alternative approach is described based on the ‘schedule delay’ paradigm, penalising late arrival under fixed departure times. The approach allows flexible travel time densities, which can be fitted to actual surveillance data, to be incorporated. A generalised formulation of UE is proposed, termed a Late Arrival Penalised UE (LAPUE). Conditions for the existence and uniqueness of LAPUE solutions are considered, as well as methods for their computation. Two specific travel time models are then considered, one based on multivariate Normal arc travel times, and an extended model to represent arc incidents, based on mixture distributions of multivariate Normals. Several illustrative examples are used to examine the sensitivity of LAPUE solutions to various input parameters, and in particular its comparison with UE predictions. Finally, paths for further research are discussed, including the extension of the model to include elements such as distributed arrival time constraints and penalties

A splitting rate model of traffic re-routeing and traffic control

Non peer reviewedPublisher PD

Efficient robust routing for single commodity network flows

We study single commodity network flows with suitable robustness and efficiency specs. An original use of a maximum entropy problem for distributions on the paths of the graph turns this problem into a steering problem for Markov chains with prescribed initial and final marginals. From a computational standpoint, viewing scheduling this way is especially attractive in light of the existence of an iterative algorithm to compute the solution. The present paper builds on [13] by introducing an index of efficiency of a transportation plan and points, accordingly, to efficient-robust transport policies. In developing the theory, we establish two new invariance properties of the solution (called bridge) \u2013 an iterated bridge invariance property and the invariance of the most probable paths. These properties, which were tangentially mentioned in our previous work, are fully developed here. We also show that the distribution on paths of the optimal transport policy, which depends on a \u201ctemperature\u201d parameter, tends to the solution of the \u201cmost economical\u201d but possibly less robust optimal mass transport problem as the temperature goes to zero. The relevance of all of these properties for transport over networks is illustrated in an example

The Day-to-Day Dynamics of Route Choice

This paper reviews methods proposed for modelling the day-to-day dynamics of route choice, on an individual driver level. Extensions to within-day dynamics and choice of departure time are also discussed. A new variation on the approaches reviewed is also described. Simulation tests on a simple two-link network are used to illustrate the approach, and to investigate probabilistic counterparts of equilibrium uniqueness and stability. The long-term plan is for such a day-to-day varying demand-side model to be combined with a suitable microscopic supply-side model, thereby producing a new generation network model. The need for such a model - particularly in the context of assessing real-time transport strategies - has been identified in previous working papers