Uncertainty analysis methods to select the optimal alternative in the design of parking facilities

The selection of the preferred alternative in a parking facility project is usually made in a state of uncertainty. Decision-making methods are a useful tool to systematically arrive at a final decision between different alternatives and reduce subjectivity in decision making by creating a series of filters. However, the selection of the appropriate variables to be considered in the analysis may be problematic as well. Performing sensitivity analyses on entry variables is a key feature to ensure that the final choice is stable when initial conditions experience changes. This paper suggests a methodology to select the best alternative when considering parking facilities. The methodology compares the results from two different sensitivity analyses techniques. The changes in preference experienced as the applied weights change through the process are analyzed and the most critical criteria are identified

EmC-ICDSST 2019: 5th International Conference on Decision Support System Technology - ICDSST 2019 & EURO Mini Conference 2019 on "Decision Support Systems: Main Developments & Future Trends"

info:eu-repo/semantics/publishedVersio

Analisis Lahan Pertanian Rawan Banjir Menggunakan Metode Multi Atribut Utility Theory Berbasis Sistem Informasi Geografis

Jawa Timur memiliki kondisi wilayah yang beragam. Kondisi wilayah tersebut tentunya memiliki potensi bencana yang berdampak signifikan terhadap sektor pertanian. Banjir merupakan salah satu faktor yang merusak lahan pertanian. Manajemen risiko banjir memainkan peran penting dalam membimbing pemerintah dalam membuat keputusan yang tepat waktu dan tepat untuk penyelamatan dan bantuan banjir. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengkaji penilaian risiko banjir pada sektor pertanian di Jawa Timur. Metode Multi Attribute Utility Theory  digunakan untuk memecahkan masalah yang berkaitan dengan penataan ruang dan penanggulangan bencana karena bersifat sistematis dan cocok untuk memecahkan masalah yang kompleks seperti sektor pertanian. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa wilayah lahan pertanian di Jawa Timur dengan kategori sangat rawan banjir meliputi Kabupaten Bojonegoro, Lamongan, Tuban, dan Sidoarjo. Selanjutnya hasil penelitian ini divisualisasikan dengan pemetaan risiko banjir menggunakan SIG. Hal ini dapat digunakan untuk upaya penanggulangan bencana banjir. Penelitian ini diharapkan dapat membantu pengambilan kebijakan di Dinas Pertanian dan Ketahanan Pangan dalam memantau lahan pertanian yang rawan banjir guna meminimalisir terjadinya bencana banjir di sektor pertanian

Decision-support for decommissioning offshore platforms.

An estimated 2,500 offshore decommissioning projects are expected to be completed between 2018 and 2040 with significant accompanying challenges. In this research, a decision model for decommissioning offshore platforms is developed. The decommissioning decision model (DDM) aids logical determination of the optimal option for decommissioning a platform through a multicriteria decision analysis of the considered options with respect to safety, cost, environmental impact, technical feasibility, and public perception. It synthesizes information about a platform's features with expert opinion to identify the best option for decommissioning the platform from a list of available options. It also facilitates the progressive integration of historical data to replace subjective human opinion and improve the quality of decision-making as this becomes available. A case-study approach was used to demonstrate the DDM's applicability with information from an industry survey of decommissioning practitioners. Five decommissioning options were considered for the case study platform, and these were evaluated with a hybrid of Likert scale and Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). Using this technique, the optimal option for decommissioning the case study was determined with a 60% efficiency savings in time taken to complete the analysis as compared to the traditional AHP process. Results showed that partial removal is the preferred option for the case study, and the platform features with high relevance to options selection are substructure weight, water depth and age. Moreso, respondents from the North Sea were observed to be more averse to leaving platform materials in place as compared to people from Offshore USA, Africa, and Asian Seas. These findings were seen to agree with literature and industry practice through a comprehensive validation process. Thus, evidencing the DDM's flexibility and robustness and making a case for its industry adoption. After its validation, the DDM's capability to support integration of historical data was investigated with the aid of a prediction model for estimating the costs of using different options for decommissioning offshore platforms. This costing model was developed by applying machine learning regression to historical decommissioning cost data. The model predicts decommissioning options costs for five different scenarios with reasonable accuracy as indicated by an r-squared value of 0.935, implying that it is reliable for predicting decommissioning costs. It was used to predict decommissioning options costs for the case study. These costs were then integrated into the DDM to replace the input data for cost criterion as obtained from the survey. The models developed in this research improve upon the existing works in decommissioning optimisation. Industry adoption of the decision model will result to significant reduction of time, resources and efforts spent in decision-making during decommissioning. By acting as an unbiased basis for justifying the choice of a decommissioning option for an offshore asset, the DDM mitigates the traditional conflict between stakeholders of decommissioning projects. The costing model aids early estimation of decommissioning costs for budgeting, asset trading and other preliminary cost evaluation purposes prior to detailed engineering cost estimation. Therefore, both models represent a significant contribution towards the advancement of the current offshore decommissioning practice

Mapping oil spill human health risk in rivers state, Niger Delta, Nigeria

Oil pipelines play a significant role in crude oil transportation and bring danger close to communities along their paths. Pipeline accidents happen every now and then due to factors ranging from operational cause to third party damage. In the Niger Delta pipeline system, interdiction is common; therefore, every length and breadth of land covered by a pipeline is vulnerable to oil pollution, which can pose a threat to land use. Weak enforcement of rights of way led to encroachment by farmers and human dwellings, thereby bringing people in close proximity to pipelines. Considering the impact exposure can have on human health, a method was developed for identifying vulnerable communities within a designated potential pipeline impact radius, and generic assessment criteria developed for assessing land use exposure. The GIS based model combines four weighted criteria layers, i.e. land cover, population, river and pipeline buffers in a multi-criteria decision making with analytical hierarchy process to develop an automated mapping tool designed to perform three distinct operations: firstly, to delineate pipeline hazard areas; secondly, establish potential pipeline impact radius; and thirdly, identify vulnerable communities in high consequence areas. The model was tested for sensitivity and found to be sensitive to river criterion; transferability on the other hand is limited to similar criteria variables. To understand spatial distribution of oil spills, 443 oil spill incidents were examined and found to tend towards cluster distribution. Meanwhile, the main causes of spills include production error (34.8%) and interdiction (31.6%); interdiction alone discharged about 61.4% of crude oil. This brings to light the significance of oil pipeline spills and the tendency to increase the risk of exposure. The generic assessment criteria were developed for three land uses using CLEA v 1.06 for aromatic (EC5-EC44) and aliphatic (EC5-EC44) fractions. The use of the model and screening criteria are embedded in a framework designed to stimulate public participation in pipeline management and pipeline hazard mitigation, which policy makers and regulators in the oil industry can find useful in pipeline hazard management and exposure mitigation

Mapping oil spill human health risk in rivers state, Niger Delta, Nigeria

Oil pipelines play a significant role in crude oil transportation and bring danger close to communities along their paths. Pipeline accidents happen every now and then due to factors ranging from operational cause to third party damage. In the Niger Delta pipeline system, interdiction is common; therefore, every length and breadth of land covered by a pipeline is vulnerable to oil pollution, which can pose a threat to land use. Weak enforcement of rights of way led to encroachment by farmers and human dwellings, thereby bringing people in close proximity to pipelines. Considering the impact exposure can have on human health, a method was developed for identifying vulnerable communities within a designated potential pipeline impact radius, and generic assessment criteria developed for assessing land use exposure. The GIS based model combines four weighted criteria layers, i.e. land cover, population, river and pipeline buffers in a multi-criteria decision making with analytical hierarchy process to develop an automated mapping tool designed to perform three distinct operations: firstly, to delineate pipeline hazard areas; secondly, establish potential pipeline impact radius; and thirdly, identify vulnerable communities in high consequence areas. The model was tested for sensitivity and found to be sensitive to river criterion; transferability on the other hand is limited to similar criteria variables. To understand spatial distribution of oil spills, 443 oil spill incidents were examined and found to tend towards cluster distribution. Meanwhile, the main causes of spills include production error (34.8%) and interdiction (31.6%); interdiction alone discharged about 61.4% of crude oil. This brings to light the significance of oil pipeline spills and the tendency to increase the risk of exposure. The generic assessment criteria were developed for three land uses using CLEA v 1.06 for aromatic (EC5-EC44) and aliphatic (EC5-EC44) fractions. The use of the model and screening criteria are embedded in a framework designed to stimulate public participation in pipeline management and pipeline hazard mitigation, which policy makers and regulators in the oil industry can find useful in pipeline hazard management and exposure mitigation

Mathematical Fuzzy Logic in the Emerging Fields of Engineering, Finance, and Computer Sciences

Mathematical fuzzy logic (MFL) specifically targets many-valued logic and has significantly contributed to the logical foundations of fuzzy set theory (FST). It explores the computational and philosophical rationale behind the uncertainty due to imprecision in the backdrop of traditional mathematical logic. Since uncertainty is present in almost every real-world application, it is essential to develop novel approaches and tools for efficient processing. This book is the collection of the publications in the Special Issue “Mathematical Fuzzy Logic in the Emerging Fields of Engineering, Finance, and Computer Sciences”, which aims to cover theoretical and practical aspects of MFL and FST. Specifically, this book addresses several problems, such as:- Industrial optimization problems- Multi-criteria decision-making- Financial forecasting problems- Image processing- Educational data mining- Explainable artificial intelligence, etc

Selección de la mejor alternativa en proyectos de infraestructuras de aparcamientos con criterios en conflicto de diferentes grupos de interés

The paper analyses multicriteria decision making methods as tool that enable both public and private developers and designers to determine the most appropriate alternative(s) in cases where there is uncertainty and economic, social, sustainable and functional criteria in conflict. For this, the paper analyses how the successive application of these methods may help to determine the best solution in parking infrastructure projects and to minimize the subjectivity of the decision makers. The significant criteria in the decision process, and the possible alternatives in terms of locations and typology are analyzed. For the analysis to be complete, all the stakeholders involved in the project must be included, including users because its importance. The proposed methodology covers all this features and includes user perception (user’s utility value) expressed in economic terms, criterion had not been incluided in previous research regarding the selection of alternatives for parking projects.El artículo analiza los métodos de decisión multicriterio como herramienta que permite a promotores, públicos o privados, y proyectistas determinar la(s) alternativa(s) más adecuadas en condiciones de incertidumbre y con criterios económicos, sociales, de sostenibilidad y funcionales en conflicto. La aplicación de estos métodos de manera secuencial puede ayudar a determinar la mejor solución y a minimizar la subjetividad del decisor. Se analizan los criterios determinantes en el proceso de decisión y diferentes ubicaciones y tipologías como alternativas. Para que el análisis sea completo, se deben incluir todas las partes interesadas participantes en el proyecto, incluyendo, por su importancia, a los usuarios. La metodología propuesta reúne estas características e incluye como criterio, la percepción del usuario (el valor de utilidad para el usuario), expresado en términos económicos, no incluido en investigaciones previas de selección de alternativas en aparcamientos