Carbon Free Boston: Transportation Technical Report

Part of a series of reports that includes: Carbon Free Boston: Summary Report; Carbon Free Boston: Social Equity Report; Carbon Free Boston: Technical Summary; Carbon Free Boston: Buildings Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Waste Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Energy Technical Report; Carbon Free Boston: Offsets Technical ReportOVERVIEW: Transportation connects Boston’s workers, residents and tourists to their livelihoods, health care, education, recreation, culture, and other aspects of life quality. In cities, transit access is a critical factor determining upward mobility. Yet many urban transportation systems, including Boston’s, underserve some populations along one or more of those dimensions. Boston has the opportunity and means to expand mobility access to all residents, and at the same time reduce GHG emissions from transportation. This requires the transformation of the automobile-centric system that is fueled predominantly by gasoline and diesel fuel. The near elimination of fossil fuels—combined with more transit, walking, and biking—will curtail air pollution and crashes, and dramatically reduce the public health impact of transportation. The City embarks on this transition from a position of strength. Boston is consistently ranked as one of the most walkable and bikeable cities in the nation, and one in three commuters already take public transportation. There are three general strategies to reaching a carbon-neutral transportation system: • Shift trips out of automobiles to transit, biking, and walking;1 • Reduce automobile trips via land use planning that encourages denser development and affordable housing in transit-rich neighborhoods; • Shift most automobiles, trucks, buses, and trains to zero-GHG electricity. Even with Boston’s strong transit foundation, a carbon-neutral transportation system requires a wholesale change in Boston’s transportation culture. Success depends on the intelligent adoption of new technologies, influencing behavior with strong, equitable, and clearly articulated planning and investment, and effective collaboration with state and regional partners.Published versio

Development of Machine Learning based approach to predict fuel consumption and maintenance cost of Heavy-Duty Vehicles using diesel and alternative fuels

One of the major contributors of human-made greenhouse gases (GHG) namely carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (NOX) in the transportation sector and heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) contributing to about 27% of the overall fraction. In addition to the rapid increase in global temperature, airborne pollutants from diesel vehicles also present a risk to human health. Even a small improvement that could potentially drive energy savings to the century-old mature diesel technology could yield a significant impact on minimizing greenhouse gas emissions. With the increasing focus on reducing emissions and operating costs, there is a need for efficient and effective methods to predict fuel consumption, maintenance costs, and total cost of ownership for heavy-duty vehicles. Every improvement so achieved in this direction is a direct contributor to driving the reduction in the total cost of ownership for a fleet owner, thereby bringing economic prosperity and reducing oil imports for the economy. Motivated by these crucial goals, the present research considers integrating data-driven techniques using machine learning algorithms on the historical data collected from medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. The primary motivation for this research is to address the challenges faced by the medium- and heavy-duty transportation industry in reducing emissions and operating costs. The development of a machine learning-based approach can provide a more accurate and reliable prediction of fuel consumption and maintenance costs for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles. This, in turn, can help fleet owners and operators to make informed decisions related to fuel type, route planning, and vehicle maintenance, leading to reduced emissions and lower operating costs. Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the automotive industry has witnessed massive growth in the last few years. Heavy-duty transportation research and commercial fleets are adopting machine learning (ML) techniques for applications such as autonomous driving, fuel economy/emissions, predictive maintenance, etc. However, to perform well, modern AI methods require a large amount of high-quality, diverse, and well-balanced data, something which is still not widely available in the automotive industry, especially in the division of medium- and heavy-duty trucks. The research methodology involves the collection of data at the West Virginia University (WVU) Center for Alternative Fuels, Engines, and Emissions (CAFEE) lab in collaboration with fleet management companies operating medium- and heavy-duty vehicles on diesel and alternative fuels, including compressed natural gas, liquefied propane gas, hydrogen fuel cells, and electric vehicles. The data collected is used to develop machine learning models that can accurately predict fuel consumption and maintenance costs based on various parameters such as vehicle weight, speed, route, fuel type, and engine type. The expected outcomes of this research include 1) the development of a neural network model 3 that can accurately predict the fuel consumed by a vehicle per trip given the parameters such as vehicle speed, engine speed, and engine load, and 2) the development of machine learning models for estimating the average cost-per-mile based on the historical maintenance data of goods movement trucks, delivery trucks, school buses, transit buses, refuse trucks, and vocational trucks using fuels such as diesel, natural gas, and propane. Due to large variations in maintenance data for vehicles performing various activities and using different fuel types, the regular machine learning or ensemble models do not generalize well. Hence, a mixed-effect random forest (MERF) is developed to capture the fixed and random effects that occur due to varying duty-cycle of vocational heavy-duty trucks that perform different tasks. The developed model helps in predicting the average maintenance cost given the vocation, fuel type, and region of operation, making it easy for fleet companies to make procurement decisions based on their requirement and total cost of ownership. Both the models can provide insights into the impact of various parameters and route planning on the total cost of ownership affected by the fuel cost and the maintenance and repairs cost. In conclusion, the development of a machine learning-based approach can provide a reliable and efficient solution to predict fuel consumption and maintenance costs impacting the total cost of ownership for heavy-duty vehicles. This, in turn, can help the transportation industry reduce emissions and operating costs, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient transportation system. These models can be optimized with more training data and deployed in a real-time environment such as cloud service or an onboard vehicle system as per the requirement of companies

Vehicle Parameters Estimation and Driver Behavior Classification for Adaptive Shift Strategy of Heavy Duty Vehicles

Commercial vehicles fulfill the majority of inland freight transportation in the United States, and they are very large consumers of fuels. The increasingly stringent regulation on greenhouse-gas emission has driven manufacturers to adopt new fuel efficient technologies. Among others, advanced transmission control strategy can provide tangible improvement with low incremental cost. An adaptive shift strategy is proposed in this work to optimize the shift maps on-the-fly based on the road load and driver behavior while reducing the initial calibration efforts. In addition, the adaptive shift strategy provides the fleet owner a mean to select a tradeoff between fuel economy and drivability, since the drivers are often not the owner of the vehicle. In an attempt to develop the adaptive shift strategy, the vehicle parameters and driver behavior need to be evaluated first. Therefore, three research questions are addressed in this dissertation: (i) vehicle parameters estimation; (ii) driver behavior classification; (iii) online shift strategy adaption. In vehicle parameters estimation, a model-based vehicle rolling resistance and aerodynamic drag coefficient online estimator is proposed. A new Weighted Recursive Least Square algorithm was developed. It uses a supervisor to extracts data during the constant-speed event and saves the average road load at each speed segment. The algorithm was tested in the simulation with real-world driving data. The results have shown a more robust performance compared with the original Recursive Least Square algorithm, and high accuracy of aerodynamic drag estimation. To classify the driver behavior, a driver score algorithm was proposed. A new method is developed to represent the time-series driving data into events represented by symbolic data. The algorithm is tested with real-world driving data and shows a high classification accuracy across different vehicles and driving cycles. Finally, a new adaptive shift scheme was developed, which synthesizes the information about vehicle parameters and driver score developed in the previous steps. The driver score is used as a proxy to match the driving characteristics in real time. Drivability objective is included in the optimization through a torque reserve and it is subsequently evaluated via a newly developed metric. The impact of the shift maps on the objective drivability and fuel economy metrics is evaluated quantitatively in the vehicle simulation. The algorithms proposed in this dissertation are developed with practical implementation in mind. The methods can reduce the initial calibration effort and provide the fleet owner a mean to select an appropriate tradeoff between fuel economy and drivability depending on the vocation

System Level Impacts of V2X Enabled Vehicle Control Strategies

With an increasing number of vehicles on road the quantity of CO2 emissions and the amount of fuel wasted because of traffic congestion have been rising. Use of alternate means of transport that generate fewer emissions does not resolve the problem of congestions and vehicle wait time at traffic signal whereas further expansion of existing network of roads is not only constrained by finite space, but any network can get saturated as the number of vehicles increase. V2X technology allows vehicles and traffic infrastructure to communicate with each other, and could facilitate better use of existing resources by providing vehicles information about their surroundings and traffic signals. The information regarding the phase of traffic signal, vehicles’ position and vehicles’ speed can be used by drivers and autonomous vehicle control algorithms to make informed decisions as they approach traffic signals. This research proposes and analyzes system level impacts of implementing a coordination heuristic over single-vehicle optimization to realize the true potential of V2X technology. The results of this research can help policymakers choose the most suitable control strategy depending on the traffic conditions and the penetration rate of V2X technology. The analysis indicates that at 900 vehicles per hour for either of the two driving strategies: coordination heuristic or single-vehicle optimization, to be more preferred over baseline driver behavior, at least 50% of the vehicles should be V2X capable. Once a threshold penetration rate of V2X vehicles is achieved, vehicles following coordination heuristic generate nearly 10% fewer CO2 emissions than vehicles following baseline driver behavior, a 30% improvement over the reduction in CO2 emissions obtained using single-vehicle optimization. The vehicles following the coordination heuristic also have less travel time than vehicles following single-vehicle optimization, and less wait times than vehicles following baseline driver behavior

Conceptual Causal Framework for the Diffusion of Emerging CO2-saving Technologies in Heavy Commercial Vehicles

This working paper proposes a conceptual causal framework for analyzing the future diffusion of CO2-saving technologies in heavy commercial vehicles (HCV) by combining existing studies about the HCV market, an overview of market forecasting methods, and literature on organizational adoption of innovations. On this basis, the most influencing stakeholders are identified, in particular truck manufacturer, HCV customer, energy supply system and government

PREDICTING THE ADOPTION OF CONNECTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES BY TRANSPORTATION ORGANIZATIONS USING PEER EFFECTS

PREDICTING THE ADOPTION OF CONNECTED AUTONOMOUS VEHICLES BY TRANSPORTATION ORGANIZATIONS USING PEER EFFECT

Marketing Clean and Efficient Vehicles: A Review of Social Marketing and Social Science Approaches

In this report, the authors discuss the potential role of social marketing research and program to increase consumer demand for clean and efficient vehicles. They discuss theories and research approaches in the social marketing stream that can guide multi-year research efforts and a "transformation of the automobile market." The authors also discuss the selection of data collection techniques, such as focus groups and Internet surveys, to aid in identifying and selecting appropriate research methods

Case-based reasoning system for prediction of fuel consumption by haulage trucks in open-pit mines

The shovel-truck system is commonly used in open-pit mining operations. Truck haulage cost constitutes about 26% of open-pit mining costs as the trucks are mostly powered by diesel whose cost is escalating annually. Therefore, reducing fuel consumption could lead to a significant decrease in overall mining costs. Various methods have been proposed to improve fuel efficiency in open-pit mines. Case-based reasoning (CBR) can be used to estimate fuel consumption by haulage trucks. In this work, CBR methods namely case-based reasoning using forward sequential selection (CBR-FSS), traditional CBR, and Naïve techniques were used to predict fuel consumption by trucks operating at Orapa Mine. The results show that the CBR method can be used to predict fuel consumption by trucks in open-pit mines; the predicted values of fuel consumption using the CBR-FSS technique gave much lower absolute residual values, higher standardised accuracy values, and effect sizes than those of other prediction techniques on all the datasets used. The system will enable mine planners to know the fuel consumed per trip and allow them to take mitigation measures on trucks with high fuel consumption

Driving behaviour and sustainable mobility-policies and approaches revisited

Climate change is receiving increasing attention in recent years. The transportation sector contributes substantially to increased fuel consumption, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and poor air quality, which imposes a serious respiratory health hazard. Road transport has made a significant contribution to this effect. Consequently, many countries have attempted to mitigate climate change using various strategies. This study analysed and compared the number of policies and other approaches necessary to achieve reduced fuel consumption and carbon emission. Frequency aggregation indicates that the mitigation policies associated with driving behaviours adopted to curtail this consumption and decrease hazardous emissions, as well as a safety enhancement. Furthermore, car-sharing/carpooling was the least investigated approach to establish its influence on mitigation of climate change. Additionally, the influence of such driving behaviours as acceleration/deceleration and the compliance to speed limits on each approach was discussed. Other driving behaviours, such as gear shifting, compliance to traffic laws, choice of route, and idling and braking style, were also discussed. Likewise, the influence of aggression, anxiety, and motivation on driving behaviour of motorists was highlighted. The research determined that driving behaviours can lead to new adaptive driving behaviours and, thus, cause a significant decrease of vehicle fuel consumption and CO2 emissions. - 2018 by the authors.Scopu