Emergent Collective Dynamics with Applications in Bridge Engineering and Social Networks

This thesis presents several novel results on the nonlinear and emergent collective dynamics of crowds and populations in complex systems. Though, historically, the list of suspension bridges destabilized by pedestrian collective motion is long, the phenomenon still needs to be fully understood, especially regarding the effect of human-to-human interactions on the structure, and often incorrectly explained using synchronization theory. We present a simple general formula that quantifies the effect of pedestrian effective damping of a suspension bridge and illustrate it by simulating three mathematical models, including one with a strong propensity for synchronization. Despite the subtle effects of gait strategies in determining precise instability thresholds, our results show that average negative damping is always the trigger of pedestrian-induced high-amplitude lateral vibration of suspension bridges. Furthermore, we show that human-to-human interactions of heterogeneous pedestrians can trigger the instability of a bridge more effectively than crowds of identical pedestrians. We will also discuss the role of crowd heterogeneity in possible phase pulling between pedestrians and bridge motion. We also develop a model for the evolution of toxic memes on 4chan and report a significant influence on Twitter’s anti-vaccine conspiracy discourse over a nine-year period. We show that 4chan topics evolve according to an emergent process mathematically similar to classic reinforcement learning methods, tending to maximize the expected toxicity of future discourse. We demonstrate that these topics can invade Twitter and persist in an endemic state corresponding to the associated spreading rate and initial distribution of post rates and coexisting with a higher-traffic regime of dynamics. We discuss the implication of this result for preventing large-scale disinformation campaigns

Human mobility: Models and applications

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this recordRecent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.US Army Research Offic

MethOds and tools for comprehensive impact Assessment of the CCAM solutions for passengers and goods. D1.1: CCAM solutions review and gaps

Review of the state-of-the-art on Cooperative, Connected and Automated mobility use cases, scenarios, business models, Key Performance Indicators, impact evaluation methods, technologies, and user needs (for organisations & citizens)

Human mobility:Models and applications

Recent years have witnessed an explosion of extensive geolocated datasets related to human movement, enabling scientists to quantitatively study individual and collective mobility patterns, and to generate models that can capture and reproduce the spatiotemporal structures and regularities in human trajectories. The study of human mobility is especially important for applications such as estimating migratory flows, traffic forecasting, urban planning, and epidemic modeling. In this survey, we review the approaches developed to reproduce various mobility patterns, with the main focus on recent developments. This review can be used both as an introduction to the fundamental modeling principles of human mobility, and as a collection of technical methods applicable to specific mobility-related problems. The review organizes the subject by differentiating between individual and population mobility and also between short-range and long-range mobility. Throughout the text the description of the theory is intertwined with real-world applications.Comment: 126 pages, 45+ figure

On Cells and Agents : Geosimulation of Urban Sprawl in Western Germany by Integrating Spatial and Non-Spatial Dynamics

Urban sprawl is one of the most challenging land-use and land-cover changes in Germany implicating numerous consequences for the anthropogenic and geobiophysical spheres. While the population and job growth rates of most urban areas stagnate or even decrease, the morphological growth of cities is ubiquitous. Against this backdrop, the quantitative and qualitative modeling of urban dynamics proves to be of central importance. Geosimulation models like cellular automata (CA) and multi-agent systems (MAS) treat cities as complex urban systems. While CA focus on their spatial dynamics, MAS are well-suited for capturing autonomous individual decision making. Yet both models are complementary in terms of their focus, status change, mobility, and representations. Hence, the coupling of CA and MAS is a useful way of integrating spatial pattern and non-spatial processes into one modeling infrastructure. The thesis at hand aims at a holistic geosimulation of the future urban sprawl in the Ruhr. This region is particularly challenging as it is characterized by two seemingly antagonistic processes: urban growth and urban shrinkage. Accordingly, a hybrid modeling approach is to be developed as a means of integrating the simulation power of CA and MAS. A modified version of SLEUTH (short for Slope, Land-use, Exclusion, Urban, Transport, and Hillshade) will function as the CA component. SLEUTH makes use of historic urban land-use data sets and growth coefficients for the purpose of modeling physical urban expansion. In order to enhance the simulation performance of the CA and to incorporate important driving forces of urban sprawl, SLEUTH is for the first time combined with support vector machines (SVM). The supported CA will be coupled with ReHoSh (Residential Mobility and the Housing Market of Shrinking City Systems). This MAS models population patterns, housing prices, and housing demand in shrinking regions. All dynamics are based on multiple interactions between different household groups as well as stakeholders of the housing market. Moreover, this thesis will elaborate on the most important driving factors, rates, and most probable locations of urban sprawl in the Ruhr as well as on the future migration tendencies of different household types and the price development in the housing market of a polycentric shrinking region. The results of SLEUTH and ReHoSh are loosely coupled for a spatial analysis in which the municipal differences that have emerged during the simulations are disaggregated. Subsequently, a concept is developed in order to integrate the CA and the MAS into one geosimulation approach. The thesis introduces semi-explicit urban weights as a possibility of assessing settlement-pattern dynamics and the regional housing market dynamics at the same time. The model combination of SLEUTH-SVM and ReHoSh is finally calibrated, validated, and implemented for simulating three different scenarios of individual housing preferences and their effects on the future urban pattern in the Ruhr. Applied to a digital petri dish, the generic urban growth elements of the Ruhr are being detected

A comprehensive survey on cooperative intersection management for heterogeneous connected vehicles

Nowadays, with the advancement of technology, world is trending toward high mobility and dynamics. In this context, intersection management (IM) as one of the most crucial elements of the transportation sector demands high attention. Today, road entities including infrastructures, vulnerable road users (VRUs) such as motorcycles, moped, scooters, pedestrians, bicycles, and other types of vehicles such as trucks, buses, cars, emergency vehicles, and railway vehicles like trains or trams are able to communicate cooperatively using vehicle-to-everything (V2X) communications and provide traffic safety, efficiency, infotainment and ecological improvements. In this paper, we take into account different types of intersections in terms of signalized, semi-autonomous (hybrid) and autonomous intersections and conduct a comprehensive survey on various intersection management methods for heterogeneous connected vehicles (CVs). We consider heterogeneous classes of vehicles such as road and rail vehicles as well as VRUs including bicycles, scooters and motorcycles. All kinds of intersection goals, modeling, coordination architectures, scheduling policies are thoroughly discussed. Signalized and semi-autonomous intersections are assessed with respect to these parameters. We especially focus on autonomous intersection management (AIM) and categorize this section based on four major goals involving safety, efficiency, infotainment and environment. Each intersection goal provides an in-depth investigation on the corresponding literature from the aforementioned perspectives. Moreover, robustness and resiliency of IM are explored from diverse points of view encompassing sensors, information management and sharing, planning universal scheme, heterogeneous collaboration, vehicle classification, quality measurement, external factors, intersection types, localization faults, communication anomalies and channel optimization, synchronization, vehicle dynamics and model mismatch, model uncertainties, recovery, security and privacy

Tracking interacting targets in multi-modal sensors

PhDObject tracking is one of the fundamental tasks in various applications such as surveillance, sports, video conferencing and activity recognition. Factors such as occlusions, illumination changes and limited field of observance of the sensor make tracking a challenging task. To overcome these challenges the focus of this thesis is on using multiple modalities such as audio and video for multi-target, multi-modal tracking. Particularly, this thesis presents contributions to four related research topics, namely, pre-processing of input signals to reduce noise, multi-modal tracking, simultaneous detection and tracking, and interaction recognition. To improve the performance of detection algorithms, especially in the presence of noise, this thesis investigate filtering of the input data through spatio-temporal feature analysis as well as through frequency band analysis. The pre-processed data from multiple modalities is then fused within Particle filtering (PF). To further minimise the discrepancy between the real and the estimated positions, we propose a strategy that associates the hypotheses and the measurements with a real target, using a Weighted Probabilistic Data Association (WPDA). Since the filtering involved in the detection process reduces the available information and is inapplicable on low signal-to-noise ratio data, we investigate simultaneous detection and tracking approaches and propose a multi-target track-beforedetect Particle filtering (MT-TBD-PF). The proposed MT-TBD-PF algorithm bypasses the detection step and performs tracking in the raw signal. Finally, we apply the proposed multi-modal tracking to recognise interactions between targets in regions within, as well as outside the cameras’ fields of view. The efficiency of the proposed approaches are demonstrated on large uni-modal, multi-modal and multi-sensor scenarios from real world detections, tracking and event recognition datasets and through participation in evaluation campaigns

Smart logistics nodes:concept and classification

This paper presents the Smart Logistics Node concept, which combines the physical infrastructure of logistics nodes with digital systems to enhance collaboration. The Smart Logistics Node benefits from data sharing, supporting infrastructure, and Connected and Automated Transport (CAT) technologies. Based on a literature review on logistics nodes and CAT, we propose a general classification of Smart Logistics Nodes distinguishing upon the node function, degree of organisational (de-)centralisation, digital integration, and infrastructure support for automated driving. Then, we classify sixteen logistics nodes and find that high digital integration is common while automation is lacking. Further automation entails mixed traffic on public roads and requires organisational changes that do not always align with current business models. Our work supports the adoption of emerging technology at logistics nodes and the comparability of business cases. Ultimately, node authorities can use our concept and classification to draw a roadmap to develop CAT capabilities.</p

Investigation of Shadow Matching for GNSS Positioning in Urban Canyons

All travel behavior of people in urban areas relies on knowing their position. Obtaining position has become increasingly easier thanks to the vast popularity of ‘smart’ mobile devices. The main and most accurate positioning technique used in these devices is global navigation satellite systems (GNSS). However, the poor performance of GNSS user equipment in urban canyons is a well-known problem and it is particularly inaccurate in the cross-street direction. The accuracy in this direction greatly affects many applications, including vehicle lane identification and high-accuracy pedestrian navigation. Shadow matching is a new technique that helps solve this problem by integrating GNSS constellation geometries and information derived from 3D models of buildings. This study brings the shadow matching principle from a simple mathematical model, through experimental proof of concept, system design and demonstration, algorithm redesign, comprehensive experimental tests, real-time demonstration and feasibility assessment, to a workable positioning solution. In this thesis, GNSS performance in urban canyons is numerically evaluated using 3D models. Then, a generic two-phase 6-step shadow matching system is proposed, implemented and tested against both geodetic and smartphone-grade GNSS receivers. A Bayesian technique-based shadow matching is proposed to account for NLOS and diffracted signal reception. A particle filter is designed to enable multi-epoch kinematic positioning. Finally, shadow matching is adapted and implemented as a mobile application (app), with feasibility assessment conducted. Results from the investigation confirm that conventional ranging-based GNSS is not adequate for reliable urban positioning. The designed shadow matching positioning system is demonstrated complementary to conventional GNSS in improving urban positioning accuracy. Each of the three generations of shadow matching algorithm is demonstrated to provide better positioning performance, supported by comprehensive experiments. In summary, shadow matching has been demonstrated to significantly improve urban positioning accuracy; it shows great potential to revolutionize urban positioning from street level to lane level, and possibly meter level