Modeling spatial innovation diffusion from radiocarbon dates and regression residuals: The case of early old world pottery

This article introduces a method of exploratory analysis of the geographical factors influencing large-scale innovation diffusion, and illustrates its application to the case of early pottery dispersal in the Old World. Regression techniques are used to identify broad-scale spatiotemporal trends in the innovation's first occurrence, and regression residuals are then analyzed to identify geographical variation (climate, biomes) that may have influenced local rates of diffusion. The boundaries between the modeled diffusion zones segregate the western half of the map into a Eurasian hunter-gatherer pottery-using zone affiliated by cultural descent to the Siberian center of innovation, and a lower-latitude farming and pastoralist zone affiliated by cultural descent to the north African center of innovation. However, the correlation coefficients suggest that this baseline model has limited explanatory power, with geographical patterning in the residuals indicating that habitat also greatly affected rates of spread of the new technology. Earlier-than-predicted ages for early pottery tend to occur in locations with mean annual temperature in the range approximately 0-15°C. This favorable temperature range typically includes Mediterranean, grassland, and temperate forest biome types, but of these, the Mediterranean and the temperate deciduous forest biomes are the only ones on which regression residuals indicate earlier-than-predicted first observed pottery dates. © 2014 by the Arizona Board of Regents on behalf of the University of Arizona

Modelling the Geographical Origin of Rice Cultivation in Asia Using the Rice Archaeological Database

We have compiled an extensive database of archaeological evidence for rice across Asia, including 400 sites from mainland East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia. This dataset is used to compare several models for the geographical origins of rice cultivation and infer the most likely region(s) for its origins and subsequent outward diffusion. The approach is based on regression modelling wherein goodness of fit is obtained from power law quantile regressions of the archaeologically inferred age versus a least-cost distance from the putative origin(s). The Fast Marching method is used to estimate the least-cost distances based on simple geographical features. The origin region that best fits the archaeobotanical data is also compared to other hypothetical geographical origins derived from the literature, including from genetics, archaeology and historical linguistics. The model that best fits all available archaeological evidence is a dual origin model with two centres for the cultivation and dispersal of rice focused on the Middle Yangtze and the Lower Yangtze valleys

Deformational behaviours of alluvial units detected by advanced radar interferometry in the Vega Media of the Segura River, southeast Spain

It is widely known that differential land subsidence in a valley significantly controls its fluvial dynamics. Nevertheless, major uncertainty exists about the way in which alluvial forms respond to this process. In this study, morphological and lithostratigraphic data have been combined with advanced differential interferometry (A-DInSAR) to detect changes in alluvial landform elevations and to verify the existence of a differential subsidence pattern influenced by active sedimentary dynamics. For this purpose, the middle reach of the Segura River valley (Vega Media of the Segura River), in southeast Spain, was chosen as the study area. The Vega Media of the Segura River is an alluvial area affected by subsidence processes in close conjunction with depositional conditions, ground-water withdrawals and faults. A high scale mapping of the main younger sedimentary units was carried out by combining multi-temporal aerial photographs, high-resolution digital elevation models derived from LIDAR data, global navigation satellite system data and fieldwork. In addition, lithostratigraphic descriptions were obtained from geotechnical drilling and trenching. Finally, ground surface displacements, measured using A-DInSAR for the periods 1995–2005 and 2004–2008, allowed the determination of elevation rates and ground deformation associated with the different alluvial units. The results from this analysis revealed four typical deformational behaviours: non-deformational units (cemented alluvial fans and upper fluvial terraces); slightly deformable units (lower terraces and old abandoned meanders); moderately deformable units (lateral accretion zones and abandoned meanders before channelisation in 1981); and highly deformable areas (recently active meanders associated with artificial cutoffs by channelisation, non-active floodplains and spilling zones).This work has been supported by project 15224/PI/10 (Dynamics and recent morphological adjustments in the Lower Segura River, Middle Valley) from the Fundación SENECA of the Regional Agency of Science, Murcia, Spain, and the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness (MINECO) and EU FEDER, under Projects TEC2011-28201-C02-02, TIN2014-55413-C2-2-P, ESP2013-47780-C2-2-R and PRX14/00100. The European Space Agency’s (ESA) Terrafirma project has provided all the SAR data processed with the SPN technique and the processing itself was funded by this project

Capso: A Multi-Objective Cultural Algorithm System To Predict Locations Of Ancient Sites

ABSTRACT CAPSO: A MULTI-OBJECTIVE CULTURAL ALGORITHM SYSTEM TO PREDICT LOCATIONS OF ANCIENT SITES by SAMUEL DUSTIN STANLEY August 2019 Advisor: Dr. Robert Reynolds Major: Computer Science Degree: Doctor of Philosophy The recent archaeological discovery by Dr. John O’Shea at University of Michigan of prehistoric caribou remains and Paleo-Indian structures underneath the Great Lakes has opened up an opportunity for Computer Scientists to develop dynamic systems modelling these ancient caribou routes and hunter-gatherer settlement systems as well as the prehistoric environments that they existed in. The Wayne State University Cultural Algorithm team has been interested assisting Dr. O’Shea’s archaeological team by predicting new structures in the Alpena-Amberley Ridge Region. To further this end, we developed a rule-based expert prediction system to work with our team’s dynamic model of the Paleolithic environment. In order to evolve the rules and thresholds within this expert system, we developed a Pareto-based multi-objective optimizer called CAPSO, which stands for Cultural Algorithm Particle Swarm Optimizer. CAPSO is fully parallelized and is able to work with modern multicore CPU architecture, which enables CAPSO to handle “big data” problems such as this one. The crux of our methodology is to set up a biobjective problem with the objectives being locations predicted by the expert system (minimize) vs. training set occupational structures within those predicted locations (maximize). The first of these quantities plays the role of “cost” while the second plays the role of “benefit”. Four separate such biobjective problems are created, one for each of the four relevant occupational structure types (hunting blinds, drive lines, caches, and logistical camps). For each of these problems, when CAPSO tunes the system’s rules and thresholds, it changes which locations are predicted and hence also which structures are flagged. By repeatedly tuning the rules and thresholds, CAPSO creates a Pareto Front of locations predicted vs. structures predicted for each of the four occupational structure types. Statistical analysis of these Pareto Fronts reveals that as the number of structures predicted (benefit) increases linearly, the number of locations predicted (cost) increases exponentially. This pattern is referred to in the dissertation as the Accelerating Cost Hypothesis (ACH). The ACH statistically holds for all four structure types, and is the result of imperfect information

A tale of two rice varieties: Modelling the prehistoric dispersals of japonica and proto-indica rices

© The Author(s) 2018. We model the prehistoric dispersals of two rice varieties, japonica and proto-indica, across Asia using empirical evidence drawn from an archaeobotanical dataset of 400 sites from mainland East, Southeast and South Asia. The approach is based on regression modelling wherein goodness of fit is obtained from log–log quantile regressions of the archaeologically inferred age versus a least-cost distance from the origin(s) of dispersal. The Fast Marching method is used to estimate the least-cost distances based on simple geographical features. We explicitly test three hypotheses for the arrival of japonica rice to India where, it has been proposed, it hybridized with the indigenous proto-indica, subsequently spreading again throughout India. Model selection, based on information criteria, highlights the role of the Inner Asia Mountain Corridor in introducing japonica rice into northeast India, followed closely by a ‘mixed-route’ model, where japonica was also almost simultaneously introduced via Assam, Bangladesh and Myanmar. Finally, we estimate the impact of future archaeological work on model selection, further strengthening the importance of the Inner Asia Mountain Corridor

Modelling Early Food Production in the Mid-Holocene of the Eastern Sahara. A Sustainable Rural Livelihood Approach

The thesis employs an approach adapted from the Sustainable Rural Livelihoods (SRL) model, which was pioneered in development economics. The model provides both descriptive and explanatory components. The purpose of the research is to determine whether the SRL approach can improve the handling of archaeological data and its interpretation. It has been tested in four case studies focusing on early food production in marginal areas of the midHolocene eastern Sahara. It assesses how livelihoods were practiced in terms of risk and sustainability. A strength of the SRL approach is that it incorporates the belief that all aspects of a livelihood should be allocated equal value, including economic, ecological, human wellbeing and social assets. In particular it provides the opportunity to evaluate a qualitative model to improve an understanding of the variables that might have influenced livelihood strategies in prehistory. Ethnographic data has been employed to inform an understanding of the risks and opportunities confronting populations living in arid and semi-arid environments. In the penultimate chapter the thesis compares the findings from the four case studies to test the value of the SRL model for drawing inferences about risk, opportunity and sustainability in arid and semi-arid environments. Whilst the research is not problem-orientated it does identify gaps in current research with a view to recommending new research priorities

The Confluence of Intersubjectivity and Dialogue in Postmodern Organizational Workgroups

Nascent revival of dialogue is struggling to reach its potential within the postmodern organizational milieu. Concurrently, interpersonal intersubjectivity has steadily been de-pathologized, via reassessments of countertransference in the psychoanalytic sphere, allowing exploration of its utility in other domains of relational process. Effective use of dialogue is critical and foundational to developing meaningful and sustainable enterprise in the immediate future. Despite the risks, intentionally explored intersubjectivity is a powerful tool to enrich the container of dialogue. This paper qualitatively explores the literature on intersubjectivity and dialogue with an hermeneutic approach to discern the implications of their convergence for collaborative workgroups in emergent enterprise