Measuring and Modeling Behavioral Decision Dynamics in Collective Evacuation

Identifying and quantifying factors influencing human decision making remains an outstanding challenge, impacting the performance and predictability of social and technological systems. In many cases, system failures are traced to human factors including congestion, overload, miscommunication, and delays. Here we report results of a behavioral network science experiment, targeting decision making in a natural disaster. In each scenario, individuals are faced with a forced "go" versus "no go" evacuation decision, based on information available on competing broadcast and peer-to-peer sources. In this controlled setting, all actions and observations are recorded prior to the decision, enabling development of a quantitative decision making model that accounts for the disaster likelihood, severity, and temporal urgency, as well as competition between networked individuals for limited emergency resources. Individual differences in behavior within this social setting are correlated with individual differences in inherent risk attitudes, as measured by standard psychological assessments. Identification of robust methods for quantifying human decisions in the face of risk has implications for policy in disasters and other threat scenarios.Comment: Approved for public release; distribution is unlimite

How simple rules determine pedestrian behavior and crowd disasters

With the increasing size and frequency of mass events, the study of crowd disasters and the simulation of pedestrian flows have become important research areas. Yet, even successful modeling approaches such as those inspired by Newtonian force models are still not fully consistent with empirical observations and are sometimes hard to calibrate. Here, a novel cognitive science approach is proposed, which is based on behavioral heuristics. We suggest that, guided by visual information, namely the distance of obstructions in candidate lines of sight, pedestrians apply two simple cognitive procedures to adapt their walking speeds and directions. While simpler than previous approaches, this model predicts individual trajectories and collective patterns of motion in good quantitative agreement with a large variety of empirical and experimental data. This includes the emergence of self-organization phenomena, such as the spontaneous formation of unidirectional lanes or stop-and-go waves. Moreover, the combination of pedestrian heuristics with body collisions generates crowd turbulence at extreme densities-a phenomenon that has been observed during recent crowd disasters. By proposing an integrated treatment of simultaneous interactions between multiple individuals, our approach overcomes limitations of current physics-inspired pair interaction models. Understanding crowd dynamics through cognitive heuristics is therefore not only crucial for a better preparation of safe mass events. It also clears the way for a more realistic modeling of collective social behaviors, in particular of human crowds and biological swarms. Furthermore, our behavioral heuristics may serve to improve the navigation of autonomous robots.Comment: Article accepted for publication in PNA

Inflow process of pedestrians to a confined space

To better design safe and comfortable urban spaces, understanding the nature of human crowd movement is important. However, precise interactions among pedestrians are difficult to measure in the presence of their complex decision-making processes and many related factors. While extensive studies on pedestrian flow through bottlenecks and corridors have been conducted, the dominant mode of interaction in these scenarios may not be relevant in different scenarios. Here, we attempt to decipher the factors that affect human reactions to other individuals from a different perspective. We conducted experiments employing the inflow process in which pedestrians successively enter a confined area (like an elevator) and look for a temporary position. In this process, pedestrians have a wider range of options regarding their motion than in the classical scenarios; therefore, other factors might become relevant. The preference of location is visualized by pedestrian density profiles obtained from recorded pedestrian trajectories. Non-trivial patterns of space acquisition, e.g., an apparent preference for positions near corners, were observed. This indicates the relevance of psychological and anticipative factors beyond the private sphere, which have not been deeply discussed so far in the literature on pedestrian dynamics. From the results, four major factors, which we call flow avoidance, distance cost, angle cost, and boundary preference, were suggested. We confirmed that a description of decision-making based on these factors can give a rise to realistic preference patterns, using a simple mathematical model. Our findings provide new perspectives and a baseline for considering the optimization of design and safety in crowded public areas and public transport carriers.Comment: 23 pages, 6 figure

Traffic Instabilities in Self-Organized Pedestrian Crowds

In human crowds as well as in many animal societies, local interactions among individuals often give rise to self-organized collective organizations that offer functional benefits to the group. For instance, flows of pedestrians moving in opposite directions spontaneously segregate into lanes of uniform walking directions. This phenomenon is often referred to as a smart collective pattern, as it increases the traffic efficiency with no need of external control. However, the functional benefits of this emergent organization have never been experimentally measured, and the underlying behavioral mechanisms are poorly understood. In this work, we have studied this phenomenon under controlled laboratory conditions. We found that the traffic segregation exhibits structural instabilities characterized by the alternation of organized and disorganized states, where the lifetime of well-organized clusters of pedestrians follow a stretched exponential relaxation process. Further analysis show that the inter-pedestrian variability of comfortable walking speeds is a key variable at the origin of the observed traffic perturbations. We show that the collective benefit of the emerging pattern is maximized when all pedestrians walk at the average speed of the group. In practice, however, local interactions between slow- and fast-walking pedestrians trigger global breakdowns of organization, which reduce the collective and the individual payoff provided by the traffic segregation. This work is a step ahead toward the understanding of traffic self-organization in crowds, which turns out to be modulated by complex behavioral mechanisms that do not always maximize the group's benefits. The quantitative understanding of crowd behaviors opens the way for designing bottom-up management strategies bound to promote the emergence of efficient collective behaviors in crowds.Comment: Article published in PLoS Computational biology. Freely available here: http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pcbi.100244