Can the last glacial maximum constrain climate sensitivity?

We investigate the relationship between the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and climate sensitivity across the PMIP2 multi-model ensemble of GCMs, and find a correlation between tropical temperature and climate sensitivity which is statistically significant and physically plausible. We use this relationship, together with the LGM temperature reconstruction of Annan and Hargreaves [2012], to generate estimates for the equilibrium climate sensitivity. We estimate the equilibrium climate sensitivity to be about 2.5C with a high probability of being under 4C, though these results are subject to several important caveats. The forthcoming PMIP3/CMIP5 models were not considered in this analysis, as very few LGM simulations are currently available from these models. We propose that these models will provide a useful validation of the correlation presented here

Windiness spells in SW Europe since the last glacial maximum

Dunefields have a great potential to unravel past regimes of atmospheric circulation as they record direct traces of this component of the climate system. Along the Portuguese coast, transgressive dunefields represent relict features originated by intense and frequent westerly winds that largely contrast with present conditions, clearly dominated by weaker northwesterly winds. Optical dating and subsurface stratigraphy document three age clusters indicating main episodes of dune mobilization during: the last termination (20-11.6 ka), Middle Holocene (5.6 ka), and Late Holocene (1.2-0.98 and 0.4-0.15 ka).We find reconstructed windfields to be analogous during all episodes and dominated by strong westerlies. Yet, larger grain size diameters and dune volumes documented for the last termination support amplified patterns compatible with a southward shift and intensification of the North Atlantic westerlies during winters. Conversely, dunes deposited after the Middle Holocene are compatible with more variable windfields and weakened patterns controlled by interannual shifts towards low values of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).This work demonstrates that present windfield regimes in southern Europe are not compatible with past aeolian activity. Indeed, present day analogs indicate that wind intensities compatible with past aeolian activity are rare at present (sediment transport potentials below estimates in the aeolian record), but can occur if the jet stream is diverted to the south (i.e. 30 degrees N with negative NAO index) or if very deep cyclones anchor around 50 degrees N, extending their influence to the western Portuguese coast (relatively low NAO index). However, these conditions represent temporary patterns lasting around one day, while we suggest that the identified episodes of aeolian activity may represent semi-permanent conditions. (C) 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

ENSO dynamics during the Last Glacial Maximum

We present a numerical eigenmode analysis of an intermediate El Nin˜o–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) model which is driven by present-day observed background conditions as well as by simulated background conditions for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) about 21,000 years ago. The background conditions are obtained from two LGM simulations which were performed with the National Center for Atmospheric Research climate system model (CSM1.4) and an Earth system model of intermediate complexity (ECBilt-CLIO). Our analysis clearly shows that the leading present-day unstable recharge-discharge mode changes its stability as well as its frequency during LGM conditions. Simulated LGM background conditions were favorable to support large-amplitude self-sustained interannual ENSO variations in the tropical Pacific. Our analysis indicates that off-equatorial climate conditions as well as a shoaling of the thermocline play a crucial role in amplifying the LGM ENSO mode

Last Glacial Maximum CO2 and δ13C successfully reconciled

During the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, ∼21,000 years ago) the cold climate was strongly tied to low atmospheric CO2 concentration (∼190 ppm). Although it is generally assumed that this low CO2 was due to an expansion of the oceanic carbon reservoir, simulating the glacial level has remained a challenge especially with the additional δ13C constraint. Indeed the LGM carbon cycle was also characterized by a modern-like δ13C in the atmosphere and a higher surface to deep Atlantic δ13C gradient indicating probable changes in the thermohaline circulation. Here we show with a model of intermediate complexity, that adding three oceanic mechanisms: brine induced stratification, stratification-dependant diffusion and iron fertilization to the standard glacial simulation (which includes sea level drop, temperature change, carbonate compensation and terrestrial carbon release) decreases CO2 down to the glacial value of ∼190 ppm and simultaneously matches glacial atmospheric and oceanic δ13C inferred from proxy data. LGM CO2 and δ13C can at last be successfully reconciled

Deep North Atlantic last glacial maximum salinity reconstruction

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2021. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology 36(7), (2021): e2020PA004088, https://doi.org/10.1029/2020PA004088.We reconstruct deep water-mass salinities and spatial distributions in the western North Atlantic during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 19–26 ka), a period when atmospheric CO2 was significantly lower than it is today. A reversal in the LGM Atlantic meridional bottom water salinity gradient has been hypothesized for several LGM water-mass reconstructions. Such a reversal has the potential to influence climate, ocean circulation, and atmospheric CO2 by increasing the thermal energy and carbon storage capacity of the deep ocean. To test this hypothesis, we reconstructed LGM bottom water salinity based on sedimentary porewater chloride profiles in a north-south transect of piston cores collected from the deep western North Atlantic. LGM bottom water salinity in the deep western North Atlantic determined by the density-based method is 3.41–3.99 ± 0.15% higher than modern values at these sites. This increase is consistent with: (a) the 3.6% global average salinity change expected from eustatic sea level rise, (b) a northward expansion of southern sourced deep water, (c) shoaling of northern sourced deep water, and (d) a reversal of the Atlantic's north-south deep water salinity gradient during the LGM.This work was supported by the US National Science Foundation (grant numbers 1433150 and 1537485).2021-10-2

Aerosol-Climate Interactions During the Last Glacial Maximum

International audience; Purpose of Review: Natural archives are imprinted with signs of the past variability of some aerosol species in connection to major climate changes. In certain cases, it is possible to use these paleo-observations as a quantitative tool for benchmarking climate model simulations. Where are we on the path to use observations and models in connection to define an envelope on aerosol feedback onto climate? Recent Findings: On glacial-interglacial time scales, the major advances in our understanding refer to mineral dust, in terms of quantifying its global mass budget, as well as in estimating its direct impacts on the atmospheric radiation budget and indirect impacts on the oceanic carbon cycle. Summary: Even in the case of dust, major uncertainties persist. More detailed observational studies and model intercomparison experiments such as in the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project phase 4 will be critical in advancing the field. The inclusion of new processes such as cloud feedbacks and studies focusing on other aerosol species are also envisaged

Modeling hydrography and marine sedimentation in the Cariaco Basin since the Last Glacial Maximum

The Cariaco Basin has shallow connections with the Caribbean Sea, and these are further reduced at times of lower sea level, such as at the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). A numerical model was developed to describe the oceanography and biogenic sedimentation in the Cariaco Basin and nearby Caribbean. The model is run with different sea levels in order to simulate the changing oceanography and the development of deep water anoxia in the Cariaco Basin since the LGM. In the main sequence of numerical experiments, the surface forcing is kept fixed at present?day values while the sea level is changed in order to separate the effects of sea level from the effects of climate. As the sea level rises, the main sedimentation zone moves first to the shallow broad northern sill and NE part of the Cariaco Basin and then, once sea level reaches approximately 60 m below present, moves south to the northern coast of mainland Venezuela. The model shows that there would be an overall increase in sedimentation in the basin as the sea level rises, even if there was no change in the surface forcing. However, the model also shows that sedimentation at particular points in the basin exhibits more complicated behavior, which needs to be taken into account when interpreting individual records. Preliminary numerical experiments examine the effects of changing surface forcing while keeping the sea level at LGM values, and the applicability of a mathematical hydraulic control model in this case is also considered

Pore fluid constraints on deep ocean temperature and salinity during the Last Glacial Maximum

Pore water records of δ^(18)O and [Cl] from ODP Site 1063A on the Bermuda Rise constrain the change in seawater δ^(18)O and salinity from the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) to the Holocene to be 0.75±0.05‰ and 2.5±0.1% respectively. Coupled with a measured benthic foraminiferal δ^(18)O change, this result means that bottom waters were 4.6±0.8°C cooler than the Holocene at the LGM and therefore at or near the seawater freezing point. Coupled δ^(18)O and chlorinity results give an extrapolated mean ocean LGM to Holocene change in δ^(18)O of 0.95±0.09‰. These data also constrain the past southern source deep‐water salinity to be 35.76±0.04 psu, which is within error of the mean deep ocean value for this time

Last glacial maximum radiative forcing from mineral dust aerosols in an Earth System model

The mineral dust cycle in pre-industrial (PI) and last glacial maximum (LGM) simulations with the CMIP5 model HadGEM2-A is evaluated. The modeled global dust cycle is enhanced at the LGM, with larger emissions in the Southern hemisphere, consistent with some previous studies. Two different dust uplift schemes within HadGEM2 both show a similar LGM/PI increase in total emissions (60% and 80%) and global loading (100% and 75%), but there is a factor of three difference in the top of the atmosphere net LGM-PI direct radiative forcing (-1.2Wm−2 and -0.4Wm−2, respectively). This forcing is dominated by the short-wave effects in both schemes. Recent reconstructions of dust deposition fluxes suggest that the LGM increase is overestimated in the Southern Atlantic and underestimated over east Antarctica. The LGM dust deposition reconstructions do not strongly discern between these two dust schemes because deposition is dominated by larger (2-6Îijm diameter) particles for which the two schemes show similar loading in both time periods. The model with larger radiative forcing shows a larger relative emissions increase of smaller particles. This is because of the size-dependent friction velocity emissions threshold and different size distribution of the soil source particles compared with the second scheme. Size-dependence of the threshold velocity is consistent with the theory of saltation, implying that the model with larger radiative forcing is more realistic. However, the large difference in radiative forcing between the two schemes highlights the size distribution at emission as a major uncertainty in predicting the climatic effects of dust cycle changes