A Global Systematic Review of Improving Crop Model Estimations by Assimilating Remote Sensing Data: Implications for Small-Scale Agricultural Systems

There is a growing effort to use access to remote sensing data (RS) in conjunction with crop model simulation capability to improve the accuracy of crop growth and yield estimates. This is critical for sustainable agricultural management and food security, especially in farming communities with limited resources and data. Therefore, the objective of this study was to provide a systematic review of research on data assimilation and summarize how its application varies by country, crop, and farming systems. In addition, we highlight the implications of using process-based crop models (PBCMs) and data assimilation in small-scale farming systems. Using a strict search term, we searched the Scopus and Web of Science databases and found 497 potential publications. After screening for relevance using predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria, 123 publications were included in the final review. Our results show increasing global interest in RS data assimilation approaches; however, 81% of the studies were from countries with relatively high levels of agricultural production, technology, and innovation. There is increasing development of crop models, availability of RS data sources, and characterization of crop parameters assimilated into PBCMs. Most studies used recalibration or updating methods to mainly incorporate remotely sensed leaf area index from MODIS or Landsat into the WOrld FOod STudies (WOFOST) model to improve yield estimates for staple crops in large-scale and irrigated farming systems. However, these methods cannot compensate for the uncertainties in RS data and crop models. We concluded that further research on data assimilation using newly available high-resolution RS datasets, such as Sentinel-2, should be conducted to significantly improve simulations of rare crops and small-scale rainfed farming systems. This is critical for informing local crop management decisions to improve policy and food security assessments

Multiscale Assimilation of Sentinel and Landsat Data for Soil Moisture and Leaf Area Index Predictions Using an Ensemble-Kalman-Filter-Based Assimilation Approach in a Heterogeneous Ecosystem

Data assimilation techniques allow researchers to optimally merge remote sensing observations in ecohydrological models, guiding them for improving land surface fluxes predictions. Presently, freely available remote sensing products, such as those of Sentinel 1 radar, Landsat 8 sensors, and Sentinel 2 sensors, allow the monitoring of land surface variables (e.g., radar backscatter for soil moisture and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and for leaf area index (LAI)) at unprecedentedly high spatial and time resolutions, appropriate for heterogeneous ecosystems, typical of semiarid ecosystems characterized by contrasting vegetation components (grass and trees) competing for water use. A multiscale assimilation approach that assimilates radar backscatter and grass and tree NDVI in a coupled vegetation dynamic-land surface model is proposed. It is based on the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), and it is not limited to assimilating remote sensing data for model predictions, but it uses assimilated data for dynamically updating key model parameters (the ENKFdc approach), including saturated hydraulic conductivity and grass and tree maintenance respiration coefficients, which are highly sensitive parameters of soil-water balance and biomass budget models, respectively. The proposed EnKFdc assimilation approach facilitated good predictions of soil moisture, grass, and tree LAI in a heterogeneous ecosystem in Sardinia for a 3-year period with contrasting hydrometeorological (dry vs. wet) conditions. Contrary to the EnKF-based approach, the proposed EnKFdc approach performed well for the full range of hydrometeorological conditions and parameters, even assuming extremely biased model conditions with very high or low parameter values compared with the calibrated ("true") values. The EnKFdc approach is crucial for soil moisture and LAI predictions in winter and spring, key seasons for water resources management in Mediterranean water-limited ecosystems. The use of ENKFdc also enabled us to predict evapotranspiration and carbon flux well, with errors of less than 4% and 15%, respectively; such results were obtained even with extremely biased initial model conditions

Satellite remote sensing priorities for better assimilation in crop growth models : winter wheat LAI and grassland mowing dates case studies

In a context of markets globalization, early, reliable and timely estimations of crop yields at regional to global scale are clearly needed for managing large agricultural lands, determining food pricing and trading policies but also for early warning of harvest shortfalls. Crop growth models are often used to estimate yields within the growing season. The uncertainties associated with these models contribute to the uncertainty of crop yield estimations and forecasts. Satellite remote sensing, through its ability to provide synoptic information on growth conditions over large geographic extents and in near real-time, is a key data source used to reduce uncertainties in biophysical models through data assimilation methods. This thesis aims at assessing possible improvements for the assimilation of remotely-sensed biophysical variables in crop growth models and to estimate their related errors reduction on modelled yield estimates. Assimilated observations are winter wheat leaf area index (LAI) and grassland mowing dates derived respectively from optical (MODIS) and microwave (ERS-2) data. These observations have been assimilated in WOFOST and LINGRA growth models. Observing System Simulation Experiments (OSSE) allowed assessing errors reduction on yield estimates after assimilation for different situations of accuracy and frequency of remotely-sensed estimates and for different assimilation strategies, indicating expected improvements with the currently available and forthcoming sensors; it supports also guidelines for future satellite missions. A main finding is the fact that yield estimate improvements are only possible for assimilation strategies able to correct the possible phenological discrepancies between the remotely-sensed and the simulated data. These phenological shifts arise mainly from uncertainties on the parameters and initial states driving the phenological stages in the models but are also due, in some situations, to lack of pixel purity because of the medium resolution of sensors such as MODIS. This thesis also identifies some of the main sources of uncertainties and assesses their impact on assimilation performances. The impact of water content and biomass on SAR backscattering of grasslands is specifically assessed. The backscattering of grasslands increases with the increases of water content and decreases with the biomass in dry conditions. Based on these results, methodologies to classify grasslands according to land use (mowing or grazing) and to detect mowings are designed and demonstrated. A good classification accuracy is observed (overall accuracy around 80%). Results for mowings detection are a bit lower as half of the mowings are correctly identified but the methodology can be considered as promising in particular in the perspective of very dense SAR time series as currently acquired operationally by Sentinel-1.(AGRO - Sciences agronomiques et ingénierie biologique) -- UCL, 201

Combining Crop Models and Remote Sensing for Yield Prediction: Concepts, Applications and Challenges for Heterogeneous Smallholder Environments

JRC and CCAFS jointly organized a workshop on June 13-14, 2012 in Ispra, Italy with the aim to advance the state-of-knowledge of data assimilation for crop yield forecasting in general, to address challenges and needs for successful applications of data assimilation in forecasting crop yields in heterogeneous, smallholder environments, and to enhance collaboration and exchange of knowledge among data assimilation and crop forecasting groups. The workshop showed that advances made in crop science are widely applicable to crop forecasting. The presentations of the participants approached the challenge from many sides, leading to ideas for improvement that can be implemented in real-time, operational crop yield forecasting. When applied, this knowledge has the potential to benefit the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in the developing world.JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resource

Improving winter wheat yield estimation by assimilation of the leaf area index from Landsat TM and MODIS data into the WOFOST model

To predict regional-scale winter wheat yield, we developed a crop model and data assimilation framework that assimilated leaf area index (LAI) derived from Landsat TM and MODIS data into the WOFOST crop growth model. We measured LAI during seven phenological phases in two agricultural cities in China’s Hebei Province. To reduce cloud contamination, we applied Savitzky–Golay (S–G) filtering to the MODIS LAI products to obtain a filtered LAI. We then regressed field-measured LAI on Landsat TM vegetation indices to derive multi-temporal TM LAIs. We developed a nonlinear method to adjust LAI by accounting for the scale mismatch between the remotely sensed data and the model’s state variables. The TM LAI and scale-adjusted LAI datasets were assimilated into the WOFOST model to allow evaluation of the yield estimation accuracy. We constructed a four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4DVar) cost function to account for the observations and model errors during key phenological stages. We used the shuffled complex evolution–University of Arizona algorithm to minimize the 4DVar cost function between the remotely sensed and modeled LAI and to optimize two important WOFOST parameters. Finally, we simulated winter wheat yield in a 1-km grid for cells with at least 50% of their area occupied by winter wheat using the optimized WOFOST, and aggregated the results at a regional scale. The scale adjustment substantially improved the accuracy of regional wheat yield predictions (R2 = 0.48; RMSE= 151.92 kg ha−1) compared with the unassimilated results (R2 = 0.23;RMSE= 373.6 kg ha−1) and the TM LAI results (R2 = 0.27; RMSE= 191.6 kg ha−1). Thus, the assimilation performance depends strongly on the LAI retrieval accuracy and the scaling correction. Our research provides a scheme to employ remotely sensed data, ground-measured data, and a crop growth model to improve regional crop yield estimates

Assimilation of remote sensing into crop growth models: Current status and perspectives

Timely monitoring of crop lands is important in order to make agricultural activities more sustainable, as well as ensuring food security. The use of Earth Observation (EO) data allows crop monitoring at a range of spatial scales, but can be hampered by limitations in the data. Crop growth modelling, on the other hand, can be used to simulate the physiological processes that result in crop development. Data assimilation (DA) provides a way of blending the monitoring properties of EO data with the predictive and explanatory abilities of crop growth models. In this paper, we first provide a critique of both the advantages and disadvantages of both EO data and crop growth models. We use this to introduce a solid and robust framework for DA, where different DA methods are shown to be derived from taking different assumptions in solving for the a posteriori probability density function (pdf) using Bayes’ rule. This treatment allows us to provide some recommendation on the choice of DA method for particular applications. We comment on current computational challenges in scaling DA applications to large spatial scales. Future areas of research are sketched, with an emphasis on DA as an enabler for blending different observations, as well as facilitating different approaches to crop growth models. We have illustrated this review with a large number of examples from the literature

Combining Crop Models and Remote Sensing for Yield Prediction: Concepts, Applications and Challenges for Heterogeneous Smallholder Environments

JRC, CCAFS jointly sponsored the workshop on June 13-14, 2012, at the JRC in Ispra, Italy, to identify avenues for exploiting remote sensing information to improving crop forecasting in smallholder farming environments. The workshop’s objectives were: 1) To advance the state-of-knowledge of data assimilation for crop yield forecasting; 2) To address challenges and needs for successful applications of data assimilation in forecasting crop yields in heterogeneous, smallholder environments; and, 3) To enhance collaboration and exchange of knowledge among data assimilation and crop forecasting groups. The workshop succeeded in bringing together scientists from around the world. This has enabled discussions on research and results and has greatly enhanced collaboration and exchange of knowledge, especially about data assimilation and crop forecasting

Satellite and UAV Platforms, Remote Sensing for Geographic Information Systems

The present book contains ten articles illustrating the different possible uses of UAVs and satellite remotely sensed data integration in Geographical Information Systems to model and predict changes in both the natural and the human environment. It illustrates the powerful instruments given by modern geo-statistical methods, modeling, and visualization techniques. These methods are applied to Arctic, tropical and mid-latitude environments, agriculture, forest, wetlands, and aquatic environments, as well as further engineering-related problems. The present Special Issue gives a balanced view of the present state of the field of geoinformatics