Physical drivers of the summer 2019 North Pacific marine heatwave.

Summer 2019 observations show a rapid resurgence of the Blob-like warm sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies that produced devastating marine impacts in the Northeast Pacific during winter 2013/2014. Unlike the original Blob, Blob 2.0 peaked in the summer, a season when little is known about the physical drivers of such events. We show that Blob 2.0 primarily results from a prolonged weakening of the North Pacific High-Pressure System. This reduces surface winds and decreases evaporative cooling and wind-driven upper ocean mixing. Warmer ocean conditions then reduce low-cloud fraction, reinforcing the marine heatwave through a positive low-cloud feedback. Using an atmospheric model forced with observed SSTs, we also find that remote SST forcing from the central equatorial and, surprisingly, the subtropical North Pacific Ocean contribute to the weakened North Pacific High. Our multi-faceted analysis sheds light on the physical drivers governing the intensity and longevity of summertime North Pacific marine heatwaves

Understanding equatorial Atlantic interannual variability

An observational-based analysis of coupled variability in the equatorial Atlantic and its seasonality is presented. Regression analysis shows that the three elements of the Bjerknes positive feedback exist in the Atlantic and are spatially similar to those of the Pacific. The cross-correlation functions of the elements of the Bjerknes feedback are also similar and consistent with an ocean–atmosphere coupled mode. However, the growth rate in the Atlantic is up to 50% weaker, and explained variance is significantly lower. The Bjerknes feedback in the Atlantic is strong in boreal spring and summer, and weak in other seasons, which explains why the largest sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) occur in boreal summer. Its seasonality is determined by seasonal variations in both atmospheric sensitivity to SSTA and SSTA sensitivity to subsurface temperature anomalies

Remote sensing of upwelling off Australia's north-east coast

Cross-shelf processes drive the exchange of water between the continental shelf and western boundary currents, leading to the import and export of heat, freshwater, sediments, nutrients, plankton, fish larvae, and other properties. Upwelling is an important process which modulates those exchanges. It regulates primary productivity, which in turn promotes higher trophic levels and fisheries. In this paper, we investigate upwelling events in the East Australian Current (EAC) intensification zone off Southeast Queensland through the analysis of remotely-sensed Chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) as well as wind and ocean reanalysis products. A particular focus is on identifying the likely mechanisms that drive upwelling events during the austral autumn to winter which are evident from cold SST and enhanced Chl-a concentrations. Four complementary Upwelling Indices (UIs) are derived. Chl-a (UIChla) and SST (UISST) based indices characterize the oceanic response to upwelling, while indices based on wind (UIw) and current (UIc) data capture the forcing of upwelling. The spatial and temporal variability of all UIs is examined over the continental shelf. It reveals distinct seasonal patterns. For the northern region, UIs identify the well-known Southeast Fraser Island Upwelling System. It prevails during the austral spring to early summer and is driven by current- and upwelling favourable wind. In contrast, upwelling is enhanced over the southern shelf during austral autumn to winter. About 70% of all UISST and UIChla identified upwelling events occur during this period. A case study is presented that provides observational evidence for the existence of a shelf-break upwelling. Simultaneous downwelling favourable wind stress and upwelling favourable current-driven bottom stress establish a flow convergence in the bottom boundary layer (BBL). These convergent BBL flows force upwelling of cold and nutrient-rich slope waters as evident from negative SST anomaly and enhanced Chl-a in austral autumn to winter. It is evident from these results that the shelf region is characterised by two distinct seasonally reoccurring upwelling regimes

Recent Walker Circulation strengthening and Pacific cooling amplified by Atlantic warming

An unprecedented strengthening of Pacific trade winds since the late 1990s (ref. 1) has caused widespread climate perturbations, including rapid sea-level rise in the western tropical Pacific, strengthening of Indo-Pacific ocean currents, and an increased uptake of heat in the equatorial Pacific thermocline. The corresponding intensification of the atmospheric Walker circulation is also associated with sea surface cooling in the eastern Pacific, which has been identified as one of the contributors to the current pause in global surface warming. In spite of recent progress in determining the climatic impacts of the Pacific trade wind acceleration, the cause of this pronounced trend in atmospheric circulation remains unknown. Here we analyse a series of climate model experiments along with observational data to show that the recent warming trend in Atlantic sea surface temperature and the corresponding trans-basin displacements of the main atmospheric pressure centres were key drivers of the observed Walker circulation intensification, eastern Pacific cooling, North American rainfall trends and western Pacific sea-level rise. Our study suggests that global surface warming has been partly offset by the Pacific climate response to enhanced Atlantic warming since the early 1990s

Tendencies, variability and persistence of sea surface temperature anomalies

Quantifying global trends and variability in sea surface temperature (SST) is of fundamental importance to understanding changes in the Earth’s climate. One approach to observing SST is via remote sensing. Here we use a 37-year gap-filled, daily-mean analysis of satellite SSTs to quantify SST trends, variability and persistence between 1981-2018. The global mean warming trend is 0.08 K per decade globally, with 95 % of local trends being between -0.1 K and +0.35 K. Excluding perennial sea-ice regions, the mean warming trend is 0.11 K per decade. After removing the long-term trend we calculate the SST power spectra over different time periods. The maximum variance in the SST power spectra in the equatorial Pacific is 1.9 K2 on 1-5 year timescales, dominated by ENSO processes. In western boundary currents characterised by an intense mesoscale activity, SST power on sub-annual timescales dominates, with a maximum variance of 4.9 K2. Persistence timescales tend to be shorter in the summer hemisphere due to the shallower mixed layer. The median short-term persistence length is 11-14 days, found over 71-79 % of the global ocean area, with seasonal variations. The mean global correlation between monthly SST anomalies with a three-month time-lag is 0.35, with statistically significant correlations over 54.0 % of the global oceans, and notably in the northern and equatorial Pacific, and the sub-polar gyre south of Greenland. At six months, the mean global SST anomaly correlation falls to 0.18. The satellite data record enables the detailed characterisation of temporal changes in SST over almost four decades

Interannual SST variability in the Japan/East Sea and relationship with environmental variables

Journal of Oceanography, Oceanographic Society of Japan, 62, 115-132

Southward re-distribution of tropical tuna fisheries activity can be explained by technological and management change

There is broad evidence of climate change causing shifts in fish distribution worldwide, but less is known about the response of fisheries to these changes. Responses to climate-driven shifts in a fishery may be constrained by existing management or institutional arrangements and technological settings. In order to understand how fisheries are responding to ocean warming, we investigate purse seine fleets targeting tropical tunas in the east Atlantic Ocean using effort and sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) data from 1991 to 2017. An analysis of the spatial change in effort using a centre of gravity approach and empirical orthogonal functions is used to assess the spatiotemporal changes in effort anomalies and investigate links to SSTA. Both analyses indicate that effort shifts southward from the equator, while no clear pattern is seen northward from the equator. Random forest models show that while technology and institutional settings better explain total effort, SSTA is playing a role when explaining the spatiotemporal changes of effort, together with management and international agreements. These results show the potential of management to minimize the impacts of climate change on fisheries activity. Our results provide guidance for improved understanding about how climate, management and governance interact in tropical tuna fisheries, with methods that are replicable and transferable. Future actions should take into account all these elements in order to plan successful adaptation. © 2020 The Authors. Fish and Fisheries published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.This research is supported by the project CLOCK, under the European Horizon 2020 Program, ERC Starting Grant Agreement nº679812 funded by the European Research Council. It is also supported by the Basque Government through the BERC 2018-2021 programme and by the Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness MINECO through the BC3 María de Maeztu excellence accreditation MDM- 2017-0714. We thank, without implicating, C. Palma for his helpful advice on the ICCAT database and M. Gabantxo and H. Gabantxo for their knowledge transfer about tropical tuna fisheries. Also, we thank I. Arostegui for her comments during the design of the random forest; F. Saborido, A. Tidd and H. Arrizabalaga for scientific advice and H. Murua and M. Ortiz for providing ICCAT data. Elena Ojea thanks the Xunta the Galicia GAIN Oportunius programme and Consellería de Educación (Galicia, Spain) for additional financial support

Why Do Benguela Niños Lead Atlantic Niños?

We investigate the lag between warm interannual Sea Surface Temperature (SST) events in the eastern-equatorial Atlantic, the Atlantic Niños, and the occurrence of Benguela Niños along the southwestern Angolan coast. While it is commonly agreed that both events are associated with equatorial and subsequent coastal-trapped wave propagations driven remotely by a relaxation of the trade-winds, it is surprising that SST anomalies off Angola tend to precede the ones in the eastern-equatorial sector by ~1 month. To explain this counterintuitive behavior, our methodology is based on the experimentation with a Tropical Atlantic Ocean model. Using idealized wind-stress perturbations from a composite analysis, we trigger warm equatorial and coastal events over a stationary and then, seasonally varying ocean mean-state. In agreement with the linear dynamics, our results show that when the interannual wind-stress forcing is restricted to the western-central equatorial Atlantic, the model yields equatorial events leading the coastal ones. This implies that neither the differences in the ocean stratification between the two regions (thermocline depths or modal wave contributions) nor the seasonal phasing of the events explains the observed temporal sequence. Only if wind-stress anomalies are also prescribed in the coastal fringe, the coastal warming precedes the eastern-equatorial SST anomaly peak, emphasizing the role of the local forcing in the phenology of Benguela Niños. A weaker South-Atlantic Anticyclone initiates the coastal warming before the development of eastern-equatorial SST anomalies. Then, equatorward coastal wind anomalies, driven by a convergent anomalous circulation located on the warm Atlantic Niño, stop the remotely forced coastal warming prematurely

Corals record persistent multidecadal SST variability in the Atlantic Warm Pool since 1775 AD

Author Posting. © American Geophysical Union, 2012. This article is posted here by permission of American Geophysical Union for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Paleoceanography 27 (2012): PA3231, doi:10.1029/2012PA002313.Accurate low-latitude sea surface temperature (SST) records that predate the instrumental era are needed to put recent warming in the context of natural climate variability and to evaluate the persistence of lower frequency climate variability prior to the instrumental era and the possible influence of anthropogenic climate change on this variability. Here we present a 235-year-long SST reconstruction based on annual growth rates (linear extension) of three colonies of the Atlantic coral Siderastrea siderea sampled at two sites on the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula, Mexico, located within the Atlantic Warm Pool (AWP). AWP SSTs vary in concert the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), a basin-wide, quasiperiodic (∼60–80 years) oscillation of North Atlantic SSTs. We demonstrate that the annual linear growth rates of all three coral colonies are significantly inversely correlated with SST. We calibrate annual linear growth rates to SST between 1900 and 1960 AD. The linear correlation coefficient over the calibration period is r = −0.77 and −0.66 over the instrumental record (1860–2008 AD). We apply our calibration to annual linear growth rates to extend the SST record to 1775 AD and show that multidecadal SST variability has been a persistent feature of the AWP, and likely, of the North Atlantic over this time period. Our results imply that tropical Atlantic SSTs remained within 1°C of modern values during the past 225 years, consistent with a previous reconstruction based on coral growth rates and with most estimates based on the Mg/Ca of planktonic foraminifera from marine sediments.Funding was provided by a scholarship to L.F.V.B. from ‘Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnología’ (CONACyT-Mexico), by CONACyT projects 104358 and 23749 to P.B., and by NSF OCE-0926986 to A.L.C. and D.W.O.2013-03-2