Interactive Fuzzy Random Two-level Linear Programming through Fractile Criterion Optimization

This paper considers two-level linear programming problems involving fuzzy random variables. Having introduced level sets of fuzzy random variables and fuzzy goals of decision makers, following fractile criterion optimization, fuzzy random two-level programming problems are transformed into deterministic ones. Interactive fuzzy programming is presented for deriving a satisfactory solution efficiently with considerations of overall satisfactory balance

Possibility/Necessity-Based Probabilistic Expectation Models for Linear Programming Problems with Discrete Fuzzy Random Variables

This paper considers linear programming problems (LPPs) where the objective functions involve discrete fuzzy random variables (fuzzy set-valued discrete random variables). New decision making models, which are useful in fuzzy stochastic environments, are proposed based on both possibility theory and probability theory. In multi-objective cases, Pareto optimal solutions of the proposed models are newly defined. Computational algorithms for obtaining the Pareto optimal solutions of the proposed models are provided. It is shown that problems involving discrete fuzzy random variables can be transformed into deterministic nonlinear mathematical programming problems which can be solved through a conventional mathematical programming solver under practically reasonable assumptions. A numerical example of agriculture production problems is given to demonstrate the applicability of the proposed models to real-world problems in fuzzy stochastic environments

Multivariate chance-constrained method applied in multi-objective optimization problems of manufacturing processes

Agência 1In the multi-objective optimization problems of manufacturing processes, the responses of interest are often significantly correlated. In addition to the multivariate nature of the problems, product demands, productive capacities, cycle times, the costs of labor, machines, and tools are just some of the many random variables involved in the optimization model. In particular, when using Design of Experiments (DoE) techniques and regression methods, the estimated coefficients for the empirical models - such as response surface models - are also stochastic. However, it has been observed that most of the articles published in this research area are limited to represent the stochastic variables in a deterministic way. Within this context, the present study aimed to propose the use of stochastic programming techniques combined with multivariate statistical methods including some process capability indices widely used in the industry, such as the capacity index and the Parts Per Million () index. The use of the methods combined used resulted in the proposal of the Multivariate Chance-Constrained Programming (MCCP). To test the applicability of the MCCP method, a multi-objective optimization problem of the AISI 52100 hardened steel turning process was selected as a case study given its widespread use and relevance to the industry nowadays. As a starting point for this study, a set of experimental results obtained from a central composite design was used. The decision variables were the cutting speed (), the feed rate () and the depth of cut (). The responses of interest selected for this work were the total machining cost per part (), the material removal rate (), the tool life (), the average roughness () and the total roughness (). After analyzing the data and building the mathematical models for the responses of interest, three approaches were carried out. In the first approach, the index included the calculation of the variance of the response surface model of . In the second approach, the probability that is less than or equal to a predefined value was modelled as a stochastic objective function. Finally, the third approach described the application of the proposed MCCP method. In this approach, the index was calculated using a normal bivariate distribution for both and . The main results of this research were: a) the demonstration and validation of an equation used to calculate the variance of a continuous, derivable and dependent function of stochastic variables; b) the analysis of the impact of seven stochastic industrial variables (setup time, lot size, machine and labor costs, insert changing time, tool holder price, tool holder life and insert price) on the cost of the process; c) finding that maximizing tool life may reduce cost in some cases – for example when using Wiper tools – but the change of the cutting conditions alone does not necessarily reduce the cost of the process, as in what occurred in the case study analyzed

Methodology and Software for Interactive Decision Support

These Proceedings report the scientific results of an International Workshop on "Methodology and Software for Interactive Decision Support" organized jointly by the System and Decision Sciences Program of IIASA and The National Committee for Applied Systems Analysis and Management in Bulgaria. Several other Bulgarian institutions sponsored the workshop -- The Committee for Science to the Council of Ministers, The State Committee for Research and Technology and The Bulgarian Industrial Association. The workshop was held in Albena, on the Black Sea Coast. In the first section, "Theory and Algorithms for Multiple Criteria Optimization," new theoretical developments in multiple criteria optimization are presented. In the second section, "Theory, Methodology and Software for Decision Support Systems," the principles of building decision support systems are presented as well as software tools constituting the building components of such systems. Moreover, several papers are devoted to the general methodology of building such systems or present experimental design of systems supporting certain class of decision problems. The third section addresses issues of "Applications of Decision Support Systems and Computer Implementations of Decision Support Systems." Another part of this section has a special character. Beside theoretical and methodological papers, several practical implementations of software for decision support have been presented during the workshop. These software packages varied from very experimental and illustrative implementations of some theoretical concept to well developed and documented systems being currently commercially distributed and used for solving practical problems

Satisficing solutions for multiobjective stochastic linear programming problems

Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming is a relevant topic. As a matter of fact, many real life problems ranging from portfolio selection to water resource management may be cast into this framework. There are severe limitations in objectivity in this field due to the simultaneous presence of randomness and conflicting goals. In such a turbulent environment, the mainstay of rational choice does not hold and it is virtually impossible to provide a truly scientific foundation for an optimal decision. In this thesis, we resort to the bounded rationality and chance-constrained principles to define satisficing solutions for Multiobjective Stochastic Linear Programming problems. These solutions are then characterized for the cases of normal, exponential, chi-squared and gamma distributions. Ways for singling out such solutions are discussed and numerical examples provided for the sake of illustration. Extension to the case of fuzzy random coefficients is also carried out.Decision Science

Population-based algorithms for improved history matching and uncertainty quantification of Petroleum reservoirs

In modern field management practices, there are two important steps that shed light on a multimillion dollar investment. The first step is history matching where the simulation model is calibrated to reproduce the historical observations from the field. In this inverse problem, different geological and petrophysical properties may provide equally good history matches. Such diverse models are likely to show different production behaviors in future. This ties the history matching with the second step, uncertainty quantification of predictions. Multiple history matched models are essential for a realistic uncertainty estimate of the future field behavior. These two steps facilitate decision making and have a direct impact on technical and financial performance of oil and gas companies. Population-based optimization algorithms have been recently enjoyed growing popularity for solving engineering problems. Population-based systems work with a group of individuals that cooperate and communicate to accomplish a task that is normally beyond the capabilities of each individual. These individuals are deployed with the aim to solve the problem with maximum efficiency. This thesis introduces the application of two novel population-based algorithms for history matching and uncertainty quantification of petroleum reservoir models. Ant colony optimization and differential evolution algorithms are used to search the space of parameters to find multiple history matched models and, using a Bayesian framework, the posterior probability of the models are evaluated for prediction of reservoir performance. It is demonstrated that by bringing latest developments in computer science such as ant colony, differential evolution and multiobjective optimization, we can improve the history matching and uncertainty quantification frameworks. This thesis provides insights into performance of these algorithms in history matching and prediction and develops an understanding of their tuning parameters. The research also brings a comparative study of these methods with a benchmark technique called Neighbourhood Algorithms. This comparison reveals the superiority of the proposed methodologies in various areas such as computational efficiency and match quality

Computational intelligence approaches to robotics, automation, and control [Volume guest editors]

No abstract available

Antecipação na tomada de decisão com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza

Orientador: Fernando José Von ZubenTese (doutorado) - Universidade Estadual de Campinas, Faculdade de Engenharia Elétrica e de ComputaçãoResumo: A presença de incerteza em resultados futuros pode levar a indecisões em processos de escolha, especialmente ao elicitar as importâncias relativas de múltiplos critérios de decisão e de desempenhos de curto vs. longo prazo. Algumas decisões, no entanto, devem ser tomadas sob informação incompleta, o que pode resultar em ações precipitadas com consequências imprevisíveis. Quando uma solução deve ser selecionada sob vários pontos de vista conflitantes para operar em ambientes ruidosos e variantes no tempo, implementar alternativas provisórias flexíveis pode ser fundamental para contornar a falta de informação completa, mantendo opções futuras em aberto. A engenharia antecipatória pode então ser considerada como a estratégia de conceber soluções flexíveis as quais permitem aos tomadores de decisão responder de forma robusta a cenários imprevisíveis. Essa estratégia pode, assim, mitigar os riscos de, sem intenção, se comprometer fortemente a alternativas incertas, ao mesmo tempo em que aumenta a adaptabilidade às mudanças futuras. Nesta tese, os papéis da antecipação e da flexibilidade na automação de processos de tomada de decisão sequencial com múltiplos critérios sob incerteza é investigado. O dilema de atribuir importâncias relativas aos critérios de decisão e a recompensas imediatas sob informação incompleta é então tratado pela antecipação autônoma de decisões flexíveis capazes de preservar ao máximo a diversidade de escolhas futuras. Uma metodologia de aprendizagem antecipatória on-line é então proposta para melhorar a variedade e qualidade dos conjuntos futuros de soluções de trade-off. Esse objetivo é alcançado por meio da previsão de conjuntos de máximo hipervolume esperado, para a qual as capacidades de antecipação de metaheurísticas multi-objetivo são incrementadas com rastreamento bayesiano em ambos os espaços de busca e dos objetivos. A metodologia foi aplicada para a obtenção de decisões de investimento, as quais levaram a melhoras significativas do hipervolume futuro de conjuntos de carteiras financeiras de trade-off avaliadas com dados de ações fora da amostra de treino, quando comparada a uma estratégia míope. Além disso, a tomada de decisões flexíveis para o rebalanceamento de carteiras foi confirmada como uma estratégia significativamente melhor do que a de escolher aleatoriamente uma decisão de investimento a partir da fronteira estocástica eficiente evoluída, em todos os mercados artificiais e reais testados. Finalmente, os resultados sugerem que a antecipação de opções flexíveis levou a composições de carteiras que se mostraram significativamente correlacionadas com as melhorias observadas no hipervolume futuro esperado, avaliado com dados fora das amostras de treinoAbstract: The presence of uncertainty in future outcomes can lead to indecision in choice processes, especially when eliciting the relative importances of multiple decision criteria and of long-term vs. near-term performance. Some decisions, however, must be taken under incomplete information, what may result in precipitated actions with unforeseen consequences. When a solution must be selected under multiple conflicting views for operating in time-varying and noisy environments, implementing flexible provisional alternatives can be critical to circumvent the lack of complete information by keeping future options open. Anticipatory engineering can be then regarded as the strategy of designing flexible solutions that enable decision makers to respond robustly to unpredictable scenarios. This strategy can thus mitigate the risks of strong unintended commitments to uncertain alternatives, while increasing adaptability to future changes. In this thesis, the roles of anticipation and of flexibility on automating sequential multiple criteria decision-making processes under uncertainty are investigated. The dilemma of assigning relative importances to decision criteria and to immediate rewards under incomplete information is then handled by autonomously anticipating flexible decisions predicted to maximally preserve diversity of future choices. An online anticipatory learning methodology is then proposed for improving the range and quality of future trade-off solution sets. This goal is achieved by predicting maximal expected hypervolume sets, for which the anticipation capabilities of multi-objective metaheuristics are augmented with Bayesian tracking in both the objective and search spaces. The methodology has been applied for obtaining investment decisions that are shown to significantly improve the future hypervolume of trade-off financial portfolios for out-of-sample stock data, when compared to a myopic strategy. Moreover, implementing flexible portfolio rebalancing decisions was confirmed as a significantly better strategy than to randomly choosing an investment decision from the evolved stochastic efficient frontier in all tested artificial and real-world markets. Finally, the results suggest that anticipating flexible choices has lead to portfolio compositions that are significantly correlated with the observed improvements in out-of-sample future expected hypervolumeDoutoradoEngenharia de ComputaçãoDoutor em Engenharia Elétric

Domination and Decomposition in Multiobjective Programming

During the last few decades, multiobjective programming has received much attention for both its numerous theoretical advances as well as its continued success in modeling and solving real-life decision problems in business and engineering. In extension of the traditionally adopted concept of Pareto optimality, this research investigates the more general notion of domination and establishes various theoretical results that lead to new optimization methods and support decision making. After a preparatory discussion of some preliminaries and a review of the relevant literature, several new findings are presented that characterize the nondominated set of a general vector optimization problem for which the underlying domination structure is defined in terms of different cones. Using concepts from linear algebra and convex analysis, a well known result relating nondominated points for polyhedral cones with Pareto solutions is generalized to nonpolyhedral cones that are induced by positively homogeneous functions, and to translated polyhedral cones that are used to describe a notion of approximate nondominance. Pareto-oriented scalarization methods are modified and several new solution approaches are proposed for these two classes of cones. In addition, necessary and sufficient conditions for nondominance with respect to a variable domination cone are developed, and some more specific results for the case of Bishop-Phelps cones are derived. Based on the above findings, a decomposition framework is proposed for the solution of multi-scenario and large-scale multiobjective programs and analyzed in terms of the efficiency relationships between the original and the decomposed subproblems. Using the concept of approximate nondominance, an interactive decision making procedure is formulated to coordinate tradeoffs between these subproblems and applied to selected problems from portfolio optimization and engineering design. Some introductory remarks and concluding comments together with ideas and research directions for possible future work complete this dissertation