Modeling of the northern hemisphere ice sheets during the last glacial cycle and glaciological sensitivity

We present a new three-dimensional thermomechanically coupled ice sheet model of the northern hemisphere to reconstruct the Quaternary ice sheets during the last glacial cycle. The model includes basal sliding, internal representations of the surface mass balance, glacial isostasy, and a treatment for marine calving. The time dependent forcing consists of temperature and precipitation anomalies from the UKMO GCM scaled to the GRIP ice core ∂18O record. Model parameters were chosen to best match geomorphological inferences on maximum LGM extent and global eustatic sea level change. For our standard run we find a maximum ice volume of 57 x 106 km3 at 18.5 ka cal BP. This corresponds to a eustatic sea level lowering of 110 m after correction for hydro-isostatic displacement and anomalous ice resulting from defects in the PMIP climatic forcing. Of this 110 m, 82 m was stored in the North American ice sheet and 25 m in the Eurasian ice sheet. We determine the qualitative and quantitative response of the model from a comprehensive sensitivity study in which the most important parameters were varied over their respective ranges of uncertainty. Model outputs comparable to the observational record were explored in detail as a linear function along the axes of parameter space of the reference model. The method reveals the dominance of climate uncertainty when modelling the LGM configuration of the northern hemisphere ice sheets, but also highlights the role of ice rheology and basal processes for aspect ratio, and glacial isostasy and calving for the timing of maximum ice volume

The role of ocean and atmospheric dynamics in the marine-based collapse of the last Eurasian Ice Sheet

Information from former ice sheets may provide important context for understanding the response of today’s ice sheets to forcing mechanisms. Here we present a reconstruction of the last deglaciation of marine sectors of the Eurasian Ice Sheet, emphasising how the retreat of the Norwegian Channel and the Barents Sea ice streams led to separation of the British-Irish and Fennoscandian ice sheets at c. 18.700 and of the Kara-Barents Sea-Svalbard and Fennoscandian ice sheets between 16.000 and 15.000 years ago. Combined with ice sheet modelling and palaeoceanographic data, our reconstruction shows that the deglaciation, from a peak volume of 20 m of sea-level rise equivalent, was mainly driven by temperature forced surface mass balance in the south, and by Nordic Seas oceanic conditions in the north. Our results highlight the nonlinearity in the response of an ice sheet to forcing and the significance of ocean-ice-atmosphere dynamics in assessing the fate of contemporary ice sheets

Will present day glacier retreat increase volcanic activity? Stress induced by recent glacier retreat and its effect on magmatism at the Vatnajokull ice cap, Iceland

Global warming causes retreat of ice caps and ice sheets. Can melting glaciers trigger increased volcanic activity? Since 1890 the largest ice cap of Iceland, Vatnajokull, with an area of similar to 8000 km(2), has been continuously retreating losing about 10% of its mass during last century. Present-day uplift around the ice cap is as high as 25 mm/yr. We evaluate interactions between ongoing glacio-isostasy and current changes to mantle melting and crustal stresses at volcanoes underneath Vatnajokull. The modeling indicates that a substantial volume of new magma, similar to 0.014 km(3)/yr, is produced under Vatnajokull in response to current ice thinning. Ice retreat also induces significant stress changes in the elastic crust that may contribute to high seismicity, unusual focal mechanisms, and unusual magma movements in NW-Vatnajokull

Coupled ice sheet–climate modeling under glacial and pre-industrial boundary conditions

In the standard Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) experiments, the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) is modeled in quasi-equilibrium with atmosphere–ocean–vegetation general circulation models (AOVGCMs) with prescribed ice sheets. This can lead to inconsistencies between the modeled climate and ice sheets. One way to avoid this problem would be to model the ice sheets explicitly. Here, we present the first results from coupled ice sheet–climate simulations for the pre-industrial times and the LGM. Our setup consists of the AOVGCM ECHAM5/MPIOM/LPJ bidirectionally coupled with the Parallel Ice Sheet Model (PISM) covering the Northern Hemisphere. The results of the pre-industrial and LGM simulations agree reasonably well with reconstructions and observations. This shows that the model system adequately represents large, non-linear climate perturbations. A large part of the drainage of the ice sheets occurs in ice streams. Most modeled ice stream systems show recurring surges as internal oscillations. The Hudson Strait Ice Stream surges with an ice volume equivalent to about 5 m sea level and a recurrence interval of about 7000 yr. This is in agreement with basic expectations for Heinrich events. Under LGM boundary conditions, different ice sheet configurations imply different locations of deep water formation

Соціально-правова та етична природа мусульманської сім‘ї

Relative sea-level variations during the late Pleistocene can only be reconstructed with the knowledge of ice-sheet history. On the other hand, the knowledge of regional and global relative sea-level variations is necessary to learn about the changes in ice volume. Overcoming this problem of circularity demands a fully coupled system where ice sheets and sea level vary consistently in space and time and dynamically affect each other. Here we present results for the past 410 000 years (410 kyr) from the coupling of a set of 3-D ice-sheet-shelf models to a global sea-level model, which is based on the solution of the gravitationally self-consistent sea-level equation. The sea-level model incorporates the glacial isostatic adjustment feedbacks for a Maxwell viscoelastic and rotating Earth model with coastal migration. Ice volume is computed with four 3-D ice-sheet-shelf models for North America, Eurasia, Greenland and Antarctica. Using an inverse approach, ice volume and temperature are derived from a benthic δ18O stacked record. The derived surface-air temperature anomaly is added to the present-day climatology to simulate glacial–interglacial changes in temperature and hence ice volume. The ice-sheet thickness variations are then forwarded to the sea-level model to compute the bedrock deformation, the change in sea-surface height and thus the relative sea-level change. The latter is then forwarded to the ice-sheet models. To quantify the impact of relative sea-level variations on ice-volume evolution, we have performed coupled and uncoupled simulations. The largest differences of ice-sheet thickness change occur at the edges of the ice sheets, where relative sea-level change significantly departs from the ocean-averaged sea-level variations

Geostatistical methods for improved quantification of ice mass bed topography

Contribution to global mean sea level rise by ice sheets, ice caps and glaciers is accelerating. The total volume of water stored globally in terrestrial ice is estimated by a multitude of methods but principally by the interpolation of icethickness data. For the ice sheets and large Arctic ice caps, ice thickness is predominantly measured by airborne radio-echo sounding surveys which use radio waves to detect the bed of the surveyed ice mass. While such surveys are now extensive, large portions of ice masses are generally unsurveyed due to their size. In order to quantify ice thickness and subsequently ice volume over the entirety of an ice mass, interpolation of the input measurements is used. Throughout this whole process, uncertainties arise. Initially, from the radio-echo sounding (RES) survey and subsequently, in the interpolation. Compounding this is the absence of ground-truthing for measurements and interpolations due to the inaccessibility of ice mass beds. Hence, there is a requirement to find alternative means of quantifying uncertainty in ice thickness measurements and subsequently derived bed topography, and analyses made from these data to reduce the uncertainty in sea level change projections. This thesis develops and applies methods which aim to reduce uncertainty in ice thickness and bed topography datasets. Using high-resolution elevation data, this study exploits the likely similarity between currently ice-covered topography and formerly glaciated topography in the Arctic to generate datasets which provide alternative validation for ice mass bed topography. For the first time topographic error in RES surveying is quantified and corrections are formulated for treating future and historic ice thickness and bed topography data. Additionally, the propagation of these uncertainties through interpolations of bed topography is quantified and reduced, focussing on the Greenland Ice Sheet. Finally, the full suite of methods is applied to ice caps in the Canadian Arctic to generate, for the first time, ice cap wide topography for ice caps in the region that hold approximately a third of the freshwater outside of the continental ice sheets. By quantifying and reducing uncertainty in datasets of bed topography and ice thickness this thesis assesses the perceived stability of the continental ice sheets and large ice Arctic ice caps. From this, the implications of this for near and far term global mean sea-level rise are investigated

Ice sheet model dependency of the simulated Greenland Ice Sheet in the mid-Pliocene

The understanding of the nature and behavior of ice sheets in past warm periods is important for constraining the potential impacts of future climate change. The Pliocene warm period (between 3.264 and 3.025 Ma) saw global temperatures similar to those projected for future climates; nevertheless, Pliocene ice locations and extents are still poorly constrained. We present results from the efforts to simulate mid-Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets by means of the international Pliocene Ice Sheet Modeling Intercomparison Project (PLISMIP). We compare the performance of existing numerical ice sheet models in simulating modern control and mid-Pliocene ice sheets with a suite of sensitivity experiments guided by available proxy records. We quantify equilibrated ice sheet volume on Greenland, identifying a potential range in sea level contributions from warm Pliocene scenarios. A series of statistical measures are performed to quantify the confidence of simulations with focus on inter-model and inter-scenario differences. We find that Pliocene Greenland Ice Sheets are less sensitive to differences in ice sheet model configurations and internal physical quantities than to changes in imposed climate forcing. We conclude that Pliocene ice was most likely to be limited to the highest elevations in eastern and southern Greenland as simulated with the highest confidence and by synthesizing available regional proxies; however, the extent of those ice caps needs to be further constrained by using a range of general circulation model (GCM) climate forcings

The transient response of ice volume to orbital forcing during the warm Late Pliocene

Examining the nature of ice sheet and sea level response to past episodes of enhanced greenhouse gas forcing may help constrain future sea level change. Here, for the first time, we present the transient nature of ice sheets and sea level during the late Pliocene. The transient ice sheet predictions are forced by multiple climate snapshots derived from a climate model set up with late Pliocene boundary conditions, forced with different orbital forcing scenarios appropriate to two Marine Isotope Stages (MISs), MIS KM5c, and K1. Our results indicate that during MIS KM5c both the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets contributed to sea level rise relative to present and were relatively stable. Insolation forcing between the hemispheres was out of phase during MIS K1 and led to an asynchronous response of ice volume globally. Therefore, when variations of precession were high, inferring the behavior of ice sheets from benthic isotope or sea level records is complex

An assessment of key model parametric uncertainties in projections of Greenland Ice Sheet behavior

Lack of knowledge about the values of ice sheet model input parameters introduces substantial uncertainty into projections of Greenland Ice Sheet contributions to future sea level rise. Computer models of ice sheet behavior provide one of several means of estimating future sea level rise due to mass loss from ice sheets. Such models have many input parameters whose values are not well known. Recent studies have investigated the effects of these parameters on model output, but the range of potential future sea level increases due to model parametric uncertainty has not been characterized. Here, we demonstrate that this range is large, using a 100-member perturbed-physics ensemble with the SICOPOLIS ice sheet model. Each model run is spun up over 125 000 yr using geological forcings and subsequently driven into the future using an asymptotically increasing air temperature anomaly curve. All modeled ice sheets lose mass after 2005 AD. Parameters controlling surface melt dominate the model response to temperature change. After culling the ensemble to include only members that give reasonable ice volumes in 2005 AD, the range of projected sea level rise values in 2100 AD is ~40 % or more of the median. Data on past ice sheet behavior can help reduce this uncertainty, but none of our ensemble members produces a reasonable ice volume change during the mid-Holocene, relative to the present. This problem suggests that the model's exponential relation between temperature and precipitation does not hold during the Holocene, or that the central-Greenland temperature forcing curve used to drive the model is not representative of conditions around the ice margin at this time (among other possibilities). Our simulations also lack certain observed physical processes that may tend to enhance the real ice sheet's response. Regardless, this work has implications for other studies that use ice sheet models to project or hindcast the behavior of the Greenland Ice Sheet