Examining the dynamics of macroeconomic indicators and banking stock returns with bayesian networks

According to the modern portfolio theory, the direction of the relationship between the securities in the portfolio is stated to be effective in reducing the risk. Moreover, securities in high correlation are avoided by taking place in the same portfolio. The models structured by the Bayesian networks are capable of visually illustrate the probabilistic relationship. Also, portfolio returns could be refreshed simultaneously when new information has arrived. The study aims to provide dynamic information through Bayesian networks and to investigate the relationship between macroeconomic indicators and stock returns of Turkish major bank stocks based on the Arbitrage Pricing Model. The dataset includes stock returns of four banks listed in the Borsa Istanbul from June 2001 to January 2017. Besides, macroeconomic variables such as BIST-100 Index, oil prices, inflation, exchange, and interest rate & money supply are gathered for the same period. The results suggest that the Bayesian network models allow dynamics among stock returns could be investigated in more detail. Additionally, it determines that macroeconomic variables would have various impacts on stock returns on bank stocks by comparison of the conventional methods

Machine Learning Stock Market Prediction Studies: Review and Research Directions

Stock market investment strategies are complex and rely on an evaluation of vast amounts of data. In recent years, machine learning techniques have increasingly been examined to assess whether they can improve market forecasting when compared with traditional approaches. The objective for this study is to identify directions for future machine learning stock market prediction research based upon a review of current literature. A systematic literature review methodology is used to identify relevant peer-reviewed journal articles from the past twenty years and categorize studies that have similar methods and contexts. Four categories emerge: artificial neural network studies, support vector machine studies, studies using genetic algorithms combined with other techniques, and studies using hybrid or other artificial intelligence approaches. Studies in each category are reviewed to identify common findings, unique findings, limitations, and areas that need further investigation. The final section provides overall conclusions and directions for future research

Modeling Financial Time Series with Artificial Neural Networks

Financial time series convey the decisions and actions of a population of human actors over time. Econometric and regressive models have been developed in the past decades for analyzing these time series. More recently, biologically inspired artificial neural network models have been shown to overcome some of the main challenges of traditional techniques by better exploiting the non-linear, non-stationary, and oscillatory nature of noisy, chaotic human interactions. This review paper explores the options, benefits, and weaknesses of the various forms of artificial neural networks as compared with regression techniques in the field of financial time series analysis.CELEST, a National Science Foundation Science of Learning Center (SBE-0354378); SyNAPSE program of the Defense Advanced Research Project Agency (HR001109-03-0001

Stock portfolio selection using learning-to-rank algorithms with news sentiment

In this study, we apply learning-to-rank algorithms to design trading strategies using relative performance of a group of stocks based on investors' sentiment toward these stocks. We show that learning-to-rank algorithms are effective in producing reliable rankings of the best and the worst performing stocks based on investors' sentiment. More specifically, we use the sentiment shock and trend indicators introduced in the previous studies, and we design stock selection rules of holding long positions of the top 25% stocks and short positions of the bottom 25% stocks according to rankings produced by learning-to-rank algorithms. We then apply two learning-to-rank algorithms, ListNet and RankNet, in stock selection processes and test long-only and long-short portfolio selection strategies using 10 years of market and news sentiment data. Through backtesting of these strategies from 2006 to 2014, we demonstrate that our portfolio strategies produce risk-adjusted returns superior to the S&P500 index return, the hedge fund industry average performance - HFRIEMN, and some sentiment-based approaches without learning-to-rank algorithm during the same period

Analysis of quantitative investment strategies

This paper tests the combination of five different sub-strategies, resembling the performance of a multi-strategy hedge fund benchmarked against the popular buy-and-hold S&P 500 investing approach. The sub-strategies are: residual momentum, value including intangibles, value and momentum, volatility forecasting, and a long short-term memory strategy, the latter two being machine-learning-based, and all investing in the U.S. universe. The combined strategy’s performance is analyzed by three weighting schemes: equal-weight, momentum, and mean-variance, resulting in a gamut of robustness and performance. The combined strategies reap diversification benefits, thereby giving investors a superior risk-reward trade-off compared to the buy-and-hold S&P 500 approach

Analysis of Stock Portfolio with Global Economic Factors using Dynamic Data Modelling

This article analyzes stock portfolios and worldwide economic challenges. This study uses APIs to retrieve data and analyze correlations. To determine and measure how economic indicators affect stock performance. This work introduces an autoencoder-based model to better comprehend the complex relationship between economic conditions and stock portfolio dynamics. The analysis begins with an API retrieval of a wide range of macroeconomic information. These indicators include global economic metrics like GDP, unemployment, CPI, federal funds rates, and treasury bill rates. After collection, data is carefully curated and prepared for analysis. This study uses correlation analysis to understand economic variables and stock portfolio performance. This study explores how economic conditions affect stock prices and portfolio returns. This study seeks to discover trends, dependencies, and future issues that may affect investment decisions. This study also introduces an autoencoder-based neural network model to capture complex nonlinear relationships between economic variables and stock portfolio behavior. Deep learning improves interpretability and prediction, allowing a better understanding of the complex financial ecosystem dynamics. The inquiry provides valuable insights for investors, financial experts, and regulators. This study advances data-driven investment and risk management solutions. The autoencoder-based approach also reveals latent structures and hidden factors that affect stock portfolios. This novel approach opens new study options. In conclusion, this study provides a thorough stock portfolio analysis approach for global economic challenges. API data retrieval, correlation analysis, and a novel autoencoder model are used in this work to better understand the complicated relationships between economic indicators and financial markets. These insights can improve investment and policy decisions in a more integrated and dynamic global economy

Technical Analysis-Based Data Mining Strategies for Stock Market Trend Observation

This study introduces a comprehensive approach that utilizes technical analysis-based data mining strategies to observe and predict stock market trends, by leveraging historical trading data, technical indicators such as moving averages, RSI, and MACD, to systematically analyze and interpret market behavior, thereby providing investors and traders with actionable insights for making informed decisions in the volatile environment of stock trading. By integrating quantitative analysis with predictive modeling, the methodology aims to enhance the accuracy of trend forecasts and identify profitable trading opportunities. Through the application of cross-validation and backtesting techniques, the effectiveness of these strategies is rigorously evaluated against actual market movements, offering a robust framework for risk management and portfolio optimization. This interdisciplinary approach not only demystifies the complexities of the stock market but also opens new avenues for research and development in financial technology, promising a significant contribution to the field of economic forecasting and investment strategy