Artificial intelligence and UK national security: Policy considerations

RUSI was commissioned by GCHQ to conduct an independent research study into the use of artificial intelligence (AI) for national security purposes. The aim of this project is to establish an independent evidence base to inform future policy development regarding national security uses of AI. The findings are based on in-depth consultation with stakeholders from across the UK national security community, law enforcement agencies, private sector companies, academic and legal experts, and civil society representatives. This was complemented by a targeted review of existing literature on the topic of AI and national security. The research has found that AI offers numerous opportunities for the UK national security community to improve efficiency and effectiveness of existing processes. AI methods can rapidly derive insights from large, disparate datasets and identify connections that would otherwise go unnoticed by human operators. However, in the context of national security and the powers given to UK intelligence agencies, use of AI could give rise to additional privacy and human rights considerations which would need to be assessed within the existing legal and regulatory framework. For this reason, enhanced policy and guidance is needed to ensure the privacy and human rights implications of national security uses of AI are reviewed on an ongoing basis as new analysis methods are applied to data

Web-based Geographical Visualization of Container Itineraries

Around 90% of the world cargo is transported in maritime containers, but only around 2% are physically inspected. This opens the possibility for illicit activities. A viable solution is to control containerized cargo through information-based risk analysis. Container route-based analysis has been considered a key factor in identifying potentially suspicious consignments. Essential part of itinerary analysis is the geographical visualization of the itinerary. In the present paper, we present initial work of a web-based system’s realization for interactive geographical visualization of container itinerary.JRC.G.4-Maritime affair

Big data analytics:Computational intelligence techniques and application areas

Big Data has significant impact in developing functional smart cities and supporting modern societies. In this paper, we investigate the importance of Big Data in modern life and economy, and discuss challenges arising from Big Data utilization. Different computational intelligence techniques have been considered as tools for Big Data analytics. We also explore the powerful combination of Big Data and Computational Intelligence (CI) and identify a number of areas, where novel applications in real world smart city problems can be developed by utilizing these powerful tools and techniques. We present a case study for intelligent transportation in the context of a smart city, and a novel data modelling methodology based on a biologically inspired universal generative modelling approach called Hierarchical Spatial-Temporal State Machine (HSTSM). We further discuss various implications of policy, protection, valuation and commercialization related to Big Data, its applications and deployment

An investigation into hazard-centric analysis of complex autonomous systems

This thesis proposes a hypothesis that a conventional, and essentially manual, HAZOP process can be improved with information obtained with model-based dynamic simulation, using a Monte Carlo approach, to update a Bayesian Belief model representing the expected relations between cause and effects – and thereby produce an enhanced HAZOP. The work considers how the expertise of a hazard and operability study team might be augmented with access to behavioural models, simulations and belief inference models. This incorporates models of dynamically complex system behaviour, considering where these might contribute to the expertise of a hazard and operability study team, and how these might bolster trust in the portrayal of system behaviour. With a questionnaire containing behavioural outputs from a representative systems model, responses were collected from a group with relevant domain expertise. From this it is argued that the quality of analysis is dependent upon the experience and expertise of the participants but this might be artificially augmented using probabilistic data derived from a system dynamics model. Consequently, Monte Carlo simulations of an improved exemplar system dynamics model are used to condition a behavioural inference model and also to generate measures of emergence associated with the deviation parameter used in the study. A Bayesian approach towards probability is adopted where particular events and combinations of circumstances are effectively unique or hypothetical, and perhaps irreproducible in practice. Therefore, it is shown that a Bayesian model, representing beliefs expressed in a hazard and operability study, conditioned by the likely occurrence of flaw events causing specific deviant behaviour from evidence observed in the system dynamical behaviour, may combine intuitive estimates based upon experience and expertise, with quantitative statistical information representing plausible evidence of safety constraint violation. A further behavioural measure identifies potential emergent behaviour by way of a Lyapunov Exponent. Together these improvements enhance the awareness of potential hazard cases

Manufacturing the Digital Advertising Audience

How does a new medium create its audience? This study takes the business model of commercial media as its starting point and identifies industrial audience measurement as a constitutive operation in creating the sellable asset of advertising- funded companies. The study employs a qualitative case study design to analyse how a mobile virtual network operator (MVNO) company harnesses digital behavioural records generated by computational network infrastructure to turn network subscribers into an advertising audience product. The empirical evidence is based on a three-months intensive fieldwork at the company office. The analysis reveals comprehensiveness, openness and granularity as the historically new attributes of computational data vis-à-vis traditional audience measurement arrangements. These attributes are then juxtaposed with four kinds of business analytical operations (automatic data aggregation procedures, the use of software reporting tools, organizational reporting practices and custom analyses) observed at the research site to assess how does computational media environment rule key audiencemaking practices. Finally, the implications of this analytical infrastructure are reflected upon three sets of organizational practices. The theoretical framework for the analysis is composed by critically assessing constructivist approaches (SCOT, ANT and sociomateriality) for studying technology and by discussing an approach inspired by critical realism to overcome their limitations with respect to the objectives of the study. The findings contribute toward innovating new digital services, information systems (IS) theory and the study of media audiences. The case opens up considerable complexity involved in establishing a new kind of advertising audience and, more generally, a platform business. Sending out advertisements is easy compared to demonstrating that somebody is actually receiving them. The three computational attributes both extend and provide summative validity for mid-range theorizing on how computational objects mediate organizational practices and processes. Finally, the analysis reveals an interactive nature of digital audience stemming from the direct and immediate behavioural feedback in an audiencemaking cycle

Automatic Generation of Minimal Cut Sets

A cut set is a collection of component failure modes that could lead to a system failure. Cut Set Analysis (CSA) is applied to critical systems to identify and rank system vulnerabilities at design time. Model checking tools have been used to automate the generation of minimal cut sets but are generally based on checking reachability of system failure states. This paper describes a new approach to CSA using a Linear Temporal Logic (LTL) model checker called BT Analyser that supports the generation of multiple counterexamples. The approach enables a broader class of system failures to be analysed, by generalising from failure state formulae to failure behaviours expressed in LTL. The traditional approach to CSA using model checking requires the model or system failure to be modified, usually by hand, to eliminate already-discovered cut sets, and the model checker to be rerun, at each step. By contrast, the new approach works incrementally and fully automatically, thereby removing the tedious and error-prone manual process and resulting in significantly reduced computation time. This in turn enables larger models to be checked. Two different strategies for using BT Analyser for CSA are presented. There is generally no single best strategy for model checking: their relative efficiency depends on the model and property being analysed. Comparative results are given for the A320 hydraulics case study in the Behavior Tree modelling language.Comment: In Proceedings ESSS 2015, arXiv:1506.0325

Embodied Evolution in Collective Robotics: A Review

This paper provides an overview of evolutionary robotics techniques applied to on-line distributed evolution for robot collectives -- namely, embodied evolution. It provides a definition of embodied evolution as well as a thorough description of the underlying concepts and mechanisms. The paper also presents a comprehensive summary of research published in the field since its inception (1999-2017), providing various perspectives to identify the major trends. In particular, we identify a shift from considering embodied evolution as a parallel search method within small robot collectives (fewer than 10 robots) to embodied evolution as an on-line distributed learning method for designing collective behaviours in swarm-like collectives. The paper concludes with a discussion of applications and open questions, providing a milestone for past and an inspiration for future research.Comment: 23 pages, 1 figure, 1 tabl

Decision-making and predictive aids in discrete multi-stage decision tasks

In this thesis an attempt is made to identify the capabilities and limitations of the human decision-maker in multi-stage decision tasks and to investigate and evaluate methods of aiding him, particularly with the use of on-line predictive displays. In multi-stage decision tasks, the decisions already made by the decision-maker affect the decision-situations he will subsequently face. This requires that experimental studies of such decision-making must present equivalent interactive decision situations. Although the necessary methodology for such studies is rather complicated, the results thereby obtained are more relevant to many real-life situations. [Continues.

Protesters’ Reactions to Video Surveillance of Demonstrations: Counter-Moves, Security Cultures, and the Spiral of Surveillance and Counter-Surveillance

This article analyses protesters’ reactions to police video surveillance of demonstrations in Germany. Theoretically, we draw on the concept of a “spiral of surveillance and counter-surveillance” to understand the interaction processes which—intentionally or not—contribute to the deepening of the “surveillant assemblage” in the field of protest policing. After introducing video surveillance and its importance for selective protest policing, we discuss concepts of counter-surveillance. Widening the individualist scope of former research on “neutralisation techniques,” collective and interactive dimensions are added to cover the full counter-surveillance repertoire. We identified six basic categories of counter-surveillance moves: consider cameras, disguise, attack, hide, sousveillance, and cooperation. They can be classified along the axes of (a) degree of cooperation with the police, and (b) directedness (inwards/outward). It becomes obvious that activists are not predominantly deterred by video surveillance but adapt to the situation. If and how certain counter-surveillance moves are applied depends on the degree of exposure, perceptions of conflict dynamics, political interpretations, and on how these factors are processed in the respective security cultures. Security cultures, which are grounded in the respective relations between protest groups and police, are collective sets of practices and interpretive patterns aimed at securing safety and/or anonymity of activists as well as making their claims visible. Thus, they are productive power effects, resulting from the very conditions under which protest takes place in contemporary surveillance societies. This article elaborates on these ambiguities and unintended effects with regard to sousveillance and disguise techniques, such as masking or uniform clothing. The analysis is based on qualitative data collected between 2011 and 2016 consisting of group discussions and interviews with activists from different political spectra, journalists, politicians, and police officers, as well as observations of demonstrations and document analyses of movement literature

Comparing scripts and scripting comparisons: toward a systematic analysis of technologically mediated influence

While it is generally accepted in Science and Technology Studies that technological artefacts have an impact on human practices, the question how this impact is achieved has been answered idiosyncratically for each case studied. This gap between abstract theoretical conceptualisations of non-human agency and largely descriptive accounts of many empirical instances to which they are applied is difficult to overcome unless the agency of artefacts can be compared. The aim of this paper is to propose and test a theoretically grounded framework that enables comparisons of agential qualities of technologies. In order to compare the ways in which technologies influence human behaviour, technology needs to be positioned in social theory. We do so by arguing that technology is one of three distinct modes of exercising influence, positioning technology in a general framework of kinds and modes of influence, and utilising Akrich's notion of scripts to capture the mediation of influence as a particular property of technology. From this, we derive a framework for comparing scripts in seven dimensions. We apply this framework to a test of conflicting hypotheses about consequences of the increasing sophistication of technology and to the exploration of the complexity underlying a typology of ‘persuasive technologies’. Our ‘proof of concept’ enables the conclusion that comparative studies of technologies enable unique contributions to Science and Technology Studies as well as related fields like studies on technoregulation.Die Science and Technology Studies sind sich zwar darin einig, dass Technik menschliche Praktiken beeinflusst, geben jedoch bislang auf die Frage, wie das geschieht, für jeden untersuchten Fall eine idiosynkratische Antwort. Diese Lücke zwischen abstrakten Konzeptualisierungen nichtmenschlicher Agency und Einzelfallbeschreibungen kann nicht überwunden werden, solange die Agency von Artefakten nicht verglichen werden kann. Das Ziel dieses Papers ist es, einen theoretisch begründeten Vergleichsrahmen für handlungsbeeinflussende Eigenschaften von Technik vorzuschlagen und zu testen. Um Formen der Beeinflussung menschlichen Verhaltens durch Technik vergleichen zu können, muss letztere in die Sozialtheorie eingeordnet werden. Wir tun das, indem wir Technik in einen allgemeinen Rahmen von Arten und Modi der Beeinflussung einordnen und Akrichs Konzept des Skripts für die Erfassung der handlungsbeeinflussenden Eigenschaften von Technik nutzen. Daraus entwickeln wir einen Vergleichsrahmen für Skripte mit sieben Dimensionen. Diesen Vergleichsrahmen wenden wir in einem Test einander widersprechender Hypothesen über Folgen einer steigenden Komplexität der Technik sowie in der Erkundung der Komplexität einer Typologie von 'Beeinflussungstechnologien' an. Unsere 'Pilotstudie' gestattet die Schlussfolgerung, dass vergleichende Studien von Technologien neuartige Beiträge zu den Science and Technology Studies sowie zu angrenzenden Gebieten wie den Studien zur Techno-Regulation ermöglichen