Deprivation of liberty applications concerning people with learning disabilities in England:Trends over time and geographical variation

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to analyse trends over time and geographical variation in Deprivation of Liberty Safeguards (DoLS) applications for adults with learning disabilities. Design/methodology/approach - Secondary analysis of national- and local authority-level statistics collected and reported by NHS Digital. Findings - There has been a sharp national increase in the number of completed and granted DoLS applications regarding adults with learning disabilities since the 2014 "Cheshire West" Supreme Court judgement, with a greater proportion of completed DoLS applications being granted. There is extreme geographical variation across local authorities in England in the rates at which DoLS applications are being made and granted. Practical implications - The extreme variation in DoLS applications regarding adults with learning disabilities is highly unlikely to be a function of differences in mental capacity and living circumstances experienced by adults with learning disabilities across local authorities, and urgent attention needs to be paid to this variation. Originality/value - This is the first paper to analyse the geographical variation at local authority level for completed and granted DoLS applications regarding adults with learning disabilities

Analysis of the multiaxial fatigue strength at the mesoscopic scale using 3D microstructure modeling and extreme value statistics

Fatigue life computing methods are generally based on putting into equation the mechanical quantities calculated at the micro or meso scale, the relevance of these selected quantities being validated by the capacity of the models to reproduce experimental results at the macroscopic scale. Although the scaling of the damage mechanisms involved in fatigue crack initiation processes are relatively well identified (grain scale, slip bands), their explicit consideration in fatigue criteria is still not well-developed. Furthermore, the existing methods do not consider the microstructure-sensitivity. The aim of this paper is to present the computational strategies developed to account for the microstructure-sensitivity in the calculation of fatigue strength. This work is based on three parts: (1) the development of 3D microstructure modeling tools (2) the analysis of the dispersion induced by the microstructure heterogeneities on the critical fatigue damage indicators and (3) the development of a statistical approach which provides a framework for analyzing calculation results in the HCF (High Cycle Fatigue) regime. In this background, a method of analysis based on the construction of statistical extreme value distributions from FEA calculation results was developed. The evolution of the scaling parameters of these distributions for different loading conditions informed us about the effect of non-proportional loading and microstructure. A design method based on these extreme value statistics is presented to obtain a new mesoscopic criterion sensitive to microstructure parameters. Finally, surface effects are discussed too

Risk Cause Analysis On E-Procurement Bidding

Purpose: The current procurement of goods and services refers to the Electronic Procurement Service (E-Procurement) system in accordance with Presidential Regulation No.16 of 2018, however in its implementation the contractors still need adjustments. One of them is the contractor involved in the case study of this research which has failed in several tenders. This can create risks associated with value and profitability of the company. This study aims to cover this gap by knowing the risk factors for failure, level and the form of handling carried out by distributing questionnaires to the related contractors. Design/methodology/approach: Data analysis was performed using statistical software and the value was mapped using the Risk Relative Importance Index (RRI). Findings: The result show that the capacity of the bid files to upload is too large and there is no supplier support, are in moderate risk levels with scale respectively of 8,836 and 7,407. Problematic internet signal factors and incomplete design maturity levels are in high risk levels with a scale of 11.868 and 12.586. Meanwhile, the extreme risk level, namely the price cannot compete with other participants and the very limited time for calculating the tender, on a scale of 12,586 and 15,339 are factors that need attention

The Oyster River Culvert Analysis Project

Studies have already detected intensification of precipitation events consistent with climate change projections. Communities may have a window of opportunity to prepare, but information sufficiently quantified and localized to support adaptation programs is sparse: published literature is typically characterized by general resilience building or regional vulnerability studies. The Fourth Assessment Report of the IPCC observed that adaptation can no longer be postponed pending the effective elimination of uncertainty. Methods must be developed that manage residual uncertainty, providing community leaders with decision-support information sufficient for implementing infrastructure adaptation programs. This study developed a local-scale and actionable protocol for maintaining historical risk levels for communities facing significant impacts from climate change and population growth. For a coastal watershed, the study assessed the capacity of the present stormwater infrastructure capacity for conveying expected peak flow resulting from climate change and population growth. The project transferred coupled-climate model projections to the culvert system, in a form understandable to planners, resource managers and decision-makers; applied standard civil engineering methods to reverse-engineer culverts to determine existing and required capacities; modeled the potential for LID methods to manage peak flow in lieu of, or combination with, drainage system upsizing; and estimated replacement costs using local and national construction cost data. The mid-21st century, most likely 25-year, 24-hour precipitation is estimated to be 35% greater than the TP-40 precipitation for the SRES A1b trajectory, and 64% greater than the TP-40 value for the SRES A1fi trajectory. 5% of culverts are already undersized for the TP-40 event to which they should have been designed. Under the most likely A1b trajectory, an additional 12% of culverts likely will be undersized, while under the most likely A1fi scenario, an additional 19% likely will be undersized. These conditions place people and property at greater risk than that historically acceptable from the TP-4025-year design storm. This risk level may be maintained by a long-term upgrade program, utilizing existing strategies to manage uncertainty and costs. At the upper-95% confidence limit for the A1fi 25-year event, 65% of culverts are adequately sized, and building the remaining 35%, and planned, culverts to thrice the cross-sectional area specified from TP-40 should provide adequate capacity through this event. Realizable LID methods can mitigate significant impacts from climate change and population growth, however effectiveness is limited for the more pessimistic climate change projections. Results indicate that uncertainty in coupled-climate model projections is not an impediment to adaptation. This study makes a significant contribution toward the generation of reliable and specific estimates of impacts from climate change, in support of programs to adapt civil infrastructures. This study promotes a solution to today\u27s arguably most significant challenge in civil infrastructure adaptation: translating the extensive corpus of adaptation theory and regional-scale impacts analyses into localscale action

Consequences to flood management of using different probability distributions to estimate extreme rainfall

The design of flood defences, such as pumping stations, takes into consideration the predicted return periods of extreme precipitation depths. Most commonly these are estimated by fitting the Generalised Extreme Value (GEV) or the Generalised Pareto (GP) probability distributions to the annual maxima series or to the partial duration series. In this paper, annual maxima series of precipitation depths obtained from daily rainfall data measured at three selected stations in southeast UK are analysed using a range of probability distributions. These analyses demonstrate that GEV or GP distributions do not always provide the best fit to the data, and that extreme rainfall estimates for long return periods (e.g. 1 in 100 years) can differ by more than 40% depending on the distribution model used. Since a large number of properties in the UK and elsewhere currently benefit from flood defences designed using the GEV or GP probability distributions, the results from this study question whether the level of protection they offer are appropriate in locations where data demonstrate clearly that alternative probability distributions may have a better fit to the local rainfall data. This work: (a) raises awareness of the limitations of common practices in extreme rainfall analysis; (b) suggests a simple way forward to incorporate uncertainties that is easily applicable to local rainfall data worldwide; and thus (c) contributes to improve flood risk management. © 2012 Elsevier Ltd

Fluid - Structure - Soil Interaction of Cylindrical Liquid Storage Tank Subjected to Horizontal Earthquake Loading

Shallow founded tanks are strategic structures used to store a variety of kind of liquids. The fluid develops hydrodynamic effect on solid domain of container during an earthquake. This paper provides the theoretical background for numerical model on seismic response of fluid-structure-soil interaction. The Finite Element Method (FEM) was used for seismic response of shallow founded cylindrical container. The Fluid- Structure-Soil interaction of shallow founded tank was analysed according to theories of I. Limit States - the ultimate limit state (ULS) and II. Limit States - the serviceability limit state (SLS) pursuant to EN 1997-1. Summary of the results: the maximum rotation of foundation is growing with the reduction of the stiffness of the subsoil and the vertical and horizontal bearing capacity depends on the strength properties of the subsoil

An Assessment of PIER Electric Grid Research 2003-2014 White Paper

This white paper describes the circumstances in California around the turn of the 21st century that led the California Energy Commission (CEC) to direct additional Public Interest Energy Research funds to address critical electric grid issues, especially those arising from integrating high penetrations of variable renewable generation with the electric grid. It contains an assessment of the beneficial science and technology advances of the resultant portfolio of electric grid research projects administered under the direction of the CEC by a competitively selected contractor, the University of California’s California Institute for Energy and the Environment, from 2003-2014

Comparison of wind turbine tower failure modes under seismic and wind loads

This paper studies the structural responses and failure modes of a 1.5-MW horizontal-axis wind turbine under strong ground motions and wind loading. Ground motions were selected and scaled to match the two design response spectra given by the seismic code, and wind loads were generated considering tropical cyclone scenarios. Nonlinear dynamic time-history analyses were conducted and structural performances under wind loads as well as short- and long-period ground motions compared. The results show that under strong wind loads the collapse of the wind turbine tower is driven by the formation of a plastic hinge at the lower section of the tower. This area is also critical when the tower is subject to most ground motions. However, some short-period earthquakes trigger the collapse of the middle and upper parts of the tower due to the increased contribution of high-order vibration modes. Although long-period ground motions tend to result in greater structural responses, short-period earthquakes may cause brittle failure modes in which the full plastic hinge develops quickly in regions of the tower with only a moderate energy dissipation capacity. Based on these results, recommendations for future turbine designs are proposed

Nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency in buildings: A case study of a nursing home

Extreme weather events become more frequent and severe due to climate change. Although energy efficiency technologies can influence thermal resilience of buildings, they are traditionally studied separately, and their interconnections are rarely quantified. This study developed a methodology of modeling and analysis to provide insights into the nexus of thermal resilience and energy efficiency of buildings. We conducted a case study of a real nursing home in Florida, where 12 patients died during Hurricane Irma in 2017 due to HVAC system power loss, to understand and quantify how passive and active energy efficiency measures (EEMs) can improve thermal resilience to reduce heat-exposure risk of patients. Results show that passive measures of opening windows and doors for natural ventilation, as well as miscellaneous load reduction, are very effective in eliminating the extreme dangerous occasions. However, to maintain safe conditions, active measures such as on-site power generators and thermal storage are also needed. The nursing home was further studied by changing its location to two other cities: San Francisco (mild climate) and Chicago (cold winter and hot summer). Results revealed that the EEMs' impacts on thermal resilience vary significantly by climate and building characteristics. The study also estimated the costs of EEMs to help stakeholders prioritize the measures. Passive measures that may not save energy may greatly improve thermal resilience, and thus should be considered in building design or retrofit. Findings from this study indicate energy efficiency technologies should be evaluated not only by their energy savings performance but also by their influence on a building's resilience to extreme weather events