Stochastic Parameter Estimation of Poroelastic Processes Using Geomechanical Measurements

Understanding the structure and material properties of hydrologic systems is important for a number of applications, including carbon dioxide injection for geological carbon storage or enhanced oil recovery, monitoring of hydraulic fracturing projects, mine dewatering, environmental remediation and managing geothermal reservoirs. These applications require a detailed knowledge of the geologic systems being impacted, in order to optimize their operation and safety. In order to evaluate, monitor and manage such hydrologic systems, a stochastic estimation framework was developed which is capable of characterizing the structure and physical parameters of the subsurface. This software framework uses a set of stochastic optimization algorithms to calibrate a heterogeneous subsurface flow model to available field data, and to construct an ensemble of models which represent the range of system states that would explain this data. Many of these systems, such as oil reservoirs, are deep and hydraulically isolted from the shallow subsurface making near-surface fluid pressure measurements uninformative. Near-surface strainmeter, tiltmeter and extensometer signals were therefore evaluated in terms of their potential information content for calibrating poroelastic flow models. Such geomechanical signals are caused by mechanical deformation, and therefore travel through hydraulically impermeable rock much more quickly. A numerical geomechanics model was therefore developed using Geocentric, which couples subsurface flow and elastic deformation equations to simulate geomechanical signals (e.g. pressure, strain, tilt and displacement) given a set of model parameters. A high-performance cluster computer performs this computationally expensive simulation for each set of parameters, and compares the simulation results to measured data in order to evaluate the likelihood of each model. The set of data-model comparisons are then used to estimate each unknown parameter, as well as the uncertainty of each parameter estimate. This uncertainty can be inuenced by limitations in the measured dataset such as random noise, instrument drift, and the number and location of sensors, as well as by conceptual model errors and false underlying assumptions. In this study we find that strain measurements taken from the shallow subsurface can be used to estimate the structure and material parameters of geologic layers much deeper in the subsurface. This can signicantly mitigate drilling and installation costs of monitoring wells, as well as reduce the risk of puncturing or fracturing a target reservoir. These parameter estimates were also used to develop an ensemble of calibrated hydromechanical models which can predict the range of system behavior and inform decision-making on the management of an aquifer or reservoir

Regional scale cropland carbon budgets: Evaluating a geospatial agricultural modeling system using inventory data

Accurate quantification and clear understanding of regional scale cropland carbon (C) cycling is critical for designing effective policies and management practices that can contribute toward stabilizing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, extrapolating site-scale observations to regional scales represents a major challenge confronting the agricultural modeling community. This study introduces a novel geospatial agricultural modeling system (GAMS) exploring the integration of the mechanistic Environmental Policy Integrated Climate model, spatially-resolved data, surveyed management data, and supercomputing functions for cropland C budgets estimates. This modeling system creates spatiallyexplicit modeling units at a spatial resolution consistent with remotely-sensed crop identification and assigns cropping systems to each of them by geo-referencing surveyed crop management information at the county or state level. A parallel computing algorithm was also developed to facilitate the computationally intensive model runs and output post-processing and visualization. We evaluated GAMS against National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) reported crop yields and inventory estimated county-scale cropland C budgets averaged over 2000e2008. We observed good overall agreement, with spatial correlation of 0.89, 0.90, 0.41, and 0.87, for crop yields, Net Primary Production (NPP), Soil Organic C (SOC) change, and Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), respectively. However, we also detected notable differences in the magnitude of NPP and NEE, as well as in the spatial pattern of SOC change. By performing crop-specific annual comparisons, we discuss possible explanations for the discrepancies between GAMS and the inventory method, such as data requirements, representation of agroecosystem processes, completeness and accuracy of crop management data, and accuracy of crop area representation. Based on these analyses, we further discuss strategies to improve GAMS by updating input data and by designing more efficient parallel computing capability to quantitatively assess errors associated with the simulation of C budget components. The modularized design of the GAMS makes it flexible to be updated and adapted for different agricultural models so long as they require similar input data, and to be linked with socio-economic models to understand the effectiveness and implications of diverse C management practices and policies

Double-layer parallelization for hydrological model calibration on HPC systems

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Model-data interaction in groundwater studies: Review of methods, applications and future directions

This manuscript version is made available under the CC-BY-NC-ND 4.0 license: http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/ which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited. This author accepted manuscript is made available following 24 month embargo from date of publication (Sept 2018) in accordance with the publisher’s archiving policyWe define model-data interaction (MDI) as a two way process between models and data, in which on one hand data can serve the modeling purpose by supporting model discrimination, parameter refinement, uncertainty analysis, etc., and on the other hand models provide a tool for data fusion, interpretation, interpolation, etc. MDI has many applications in the realm of groundwater and has been the topic of extensive research in the groundwater community for the past several decades. This has led to the development of a multitude of increasingly sophisticated methods. The progress of data acquisition technologies and the evolution of models are continuously changing the landscape of groundwater MDI, creating new challenges and opportunities that must be properly understood and addressed. This paper aims to review, analyze and classify research on MDI in groundwater applications, and discusses several related aspects including: (1) basic theoretical concepts and classification of methods, (2) sources of uncertainty and how they are commonly addressed, (3) specific characteristics of groundwater models and data that affect the choice of methods, (4) how models and data can interact to provide added value in groundwater applications, (5) software and codes for MDI, and (6) key issues that will likely form future research directions. The review shows that there are many tools and techniques for groundwater MDI, and this diversity is needed to support different MDI objectives, assumptions, model and data types and computational constraints. The study identifies eight categories of applications for MDI in the groundwater literature, and highlights the growing gap between MDI practices in the research community and those in consulting, industry and government.Behzad Ataie-Ashtiani and Craig T. Simmons acknowledge support from the National Centre for Groundwater Research and Training, Australia. Behzad Ataie-Ashtiani also appreciates the support of the Research Office of the Sharif University of Technology, Iran

Evolutionary algorithms and other metaheuristics in water resources: Current status, research challenges and future directions

Copyright © 2014 Elsevier. NOTICE: this is the author’s version of a work that was accepted for publication in Environmental Modelling and Software. Changes resulting from the publishing process, such as peer review, editing, corrections, structural formatting, and other quality control mechanisms may not be reflected in this document. Changes may have been made to this work since it was submitted for publication. A definitive version was subsequently published in Environmental Modelling and Software Vol. 62 (2014), DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2014.09.013The development and application of evolutionary algorithms (EAs) and other metaheuristics for the optimisation of water resources systems has been an active research field for over two decades. Research to date has emphasized algorithmic improvements and individual applications in specific areas (e.g. model calibration, water distribution systems, groundwater management, river-basin planning and management, etc.). However, there has been limited synthesis between shared problem traits, common EA challenges, and needed advances across major applications. This paper clarifies the current status and future research directions for better solving key water resources problems using EAs. Advances in understanding fitness landscape properties and their effects on algorithm performance are critical. Future EA-based applications to real-world problems require a fundamental shift of focus towards improving problem formulations, understanding general theoretic frameworks for problem decompositions, major advances in EA computational efficiency, and most importantly aiding real decision-making in complex, uncertain application contexts

Remote sensing evapotranspiration in ensemble-based framework to enhance cascade routing and re-infiltration concept in integrated hydrological model applied to support decision making

Integrated hydrological models (IHMs) help characterize the complexity of surface–groundwater interactions. The cascade routing and re-infiltration (CRR) concept, recently applied to a MODFLOW 6 IHM, improved conceptualization and simulation of overland flow processes. The CRR controls the transfer of rejected infiltration and groundwater exfiltration from upslope areas to adjacent downslope areas where that water can be evaporated, re-infiltrated back to subsurface, or discharged to streams as direct runoff. The partitioning betweenthese three components is controlled by uncertain parameters that must be estimated. Thus, by quantifying and reducing those uncertainties, next to uncertainties of the other model parameters (e.g. hydraulic and storageparameters), the reliability of the CRR is improved and the IHM is better suited for decision support modelling, the two key objectives of this work. To this end, the remotely sensed MODIS-ET product was incorporated into the calibration process for complementing traditional hydraulic head and streamflow observations. A total of approximately 150,000 observations guided the calibration of a 13-year MODFLOW 6 IHM simulation of the Sardon catchment (Spain) with daily stress periods. The model input uncertainty was represented by grid-cellscale parameterization, yielding approximately 500,000 unknown input parameters to be conditioned. The calibration was carried out through an iterative ensemble smoother. Incorporating the MODIS-ET data improved the CRR implementation, and reduced uncertainties associated with other model parameters. Additionally, it significantly reduced the uncertainty associated with net recharge, a critical flux for water management that cannot be directly measured and rather is commonly estimated by IHM simulations

Geospatial Artificial Intelligence (GeoAI) in the Integrated Hydrological and Fluvial Systems Modeling: Review of Current Applications and Trends

This paper reviews the current GeoAI and machine learning applications in hydrological and hydraulic modeling, hydrological optimization problems, water quality modeling, and fluvial geomorphic and morphodynamic mapping. GeoAI effectively harnesses the vast amount of spatial and non-spatial data collected with the new automatic technologies. The fast development of GeoAI provides multiple methods and techniques, although it also makes comparisons between different methods challenging. Overall, selecting a particular GeoAI method depends on the application's objective, data availability, and user expertise. GeoAI has shown advantages in non-linear modeling, computational efficiency, integration of multiple data sources, high accurate prediction capability, and the unraveling of new hydrological patterns and processes. A major drawback in most GeoAI models is the adequate model setting and low physical interpretability, explainability, and model generalization. The most recent research on hydrological GeoAI has focused on integrating the physical-based models' principles with the GeoAI methods and on the progress towards autonomous prediction and forecasting systems

Water Data Science: Data Driven Techniques, Training, and Tools for Improved Management of High Frequency Water Resources Data

Electronic sensors can measure water and climate conditions at high frequency and generate large quantities of observed data. This work addresses data management challenges associated with the volume and complexity of high frequency water data. We developed techniques for automatically reviewing data, created materials for training water data managers, and explored existing and emerging technologies for sensor data management. Data collected by sensors often include errors due to sensor failure or environmental conditions that need to be removed, labeled, or corrected before the data can be used for analysis. Manual review and correction of these data can be tedious and time consuming. To help automate these tasks, we developed a computer program that automatically checks the data for mistakes and attempts to fix them. This tool has the potential to save time and effort and is available to scientists and practitioners who use sensors to monitor water. Scientists may lack skillsets for working with sensor data because traditional engineering or science courses do not address how work with complex data with modern technology. We surveyed and interviewed instructors who teach courses related to “hydroinformatics” or “water data science” to understand challenges in incorporating data science techniques and tools into water resources teaching. Based on their feedback, we created educational materials that demonstrate how the articulated challenges can be effectively addressed to provide high-quality instruction. These materials are available online for students and teachers. In addition to skills for working with sensor data, scientists and engineers need tools for storing, managing, and sharing these data. Hydrologic information systems (HIS) help manage the data collected using sensors. HIS make sure that data can be effectively used by providing the computer infrastructure to get data from sensors in the field to secure data storage and then into the hands of scientists and others who use them. This work describes the evolution of software and standards that comprise HIS. We present the main components of HIS, describe currently available systems and gaps in technology or functionality, and then discuss opportunities for improved infrastructure that would make sensor data easier to collect, manage, and use. In short, we are trying to make sure that sensor data are good and useful; we’re helping instructors teach prospective data collectors and users about water and data; and we are making sure that the systems that enable collection, storage, management, and use of the data work smoothly

Nonpoint Source Pollution Control Using a Multi-Objective Optimization Tool for Best Management Practices Selection and Spatial Placement in the Lower Bear River Watershed, Utah

This dissertation presents a set of approaches to help address water quality problems related to total phosphorus loads in water bodies. Water quality degradation is caused by many nonpoint sources such as agricultural runoff, fertilizers applications, and bank erosion. Three studies present methodologies for water quality protection from degradation in watersheds. The first study demonstrates the application of a watershed simulation tool that can quantify flows in the watershed, the amount of released pollutants and identify the areas contributing to the pollutants’ release in the watershed. The second study presents a simple combination tool that can pair potential management practices with the identified nonpoint sources areas to generate cost-effective combinations of management practices for reducing excess phosphorus loading to water bodies. The last study develops an optimization framework that recommends the area optimum sizes that are available for implementing management practices. These studies were applied to real-case problems to reduce excess nutrients within the Lower Bear River Watershed in northern Utah and expected to improve the management of nutrient control plans under the allocated funds