Forecasting Construction Tender Price Index in Ghana using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average with Exogenous Variables Model

Prices of construction resources keep on fluctuating due to unstable economic situations that have been experienced over the years. Clients knowledge of their financial commitments toward their intended project remains the basis for their final decision. The use of construction tender price index provides a realistic estimate at the early stage of the project. Tender price index (TPI) is influenced by various economic factors, hence there are several statistical techniques that have been employed in forecasting. Some of these include regression, time series, vector error correction among others. However, in recent times the integrated modelling approach is gaining popularity due to its ability to give powerful predictive accuracy. Thus, in line with this assumption, the aim of this study is to apply autoregressive integrated moving average with exogenous variables (ARIMAX) in modelling TPI. The results showed that ARIMAX model has a better predictive ability than the use of the single approach. The study further confirms the earlier position of previous research of the need to use the integrated model technique in forecasting TPI. This model will assist practitioners to forecast the future values of tender price index. Although the study focuses on the Ghanaian economy, the findings can be broadly applicable to other developing countries which share similar economic characteristics

Sustainable resource allocation for power generation: The role of big data in enabling interindustry architectural innovation

Economic, social and environmental requirements make planning for a sustainable electricity generation mix a demanding endeavour. Technological innovation offers a range of renewable generation and energy management options which require fine tuning and accurate control to be successful, which calls for the use of large-scale, detailed datasets. In this paper, we focus on the UK and use Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) to evaluate electricity generation options against technical, environmental and social criteria. Data incompleteness and redundancy, usual in large-scale datasets, as well as expert opinion ambiguity are dealt with using a comprehensive grey TOPSIS model. We used evaluation scores to develop a multi-objective optimization model to maximize the technical, environmental and social utility of the electricity generation mix and to enable a larger role for innovative technologies. Demand uncertainty was handled with an interval range and we developed our problem with multi-objective grey linear programming (MOGLP). Solving the mathematical model provided us with the electricity generation mix for every 5 min of the period under study. Our results indicate that nuclear and renewable energy options, specifically wind, solar, and hydro, but not biomass energy, perform better against all criteria indicating that interindustry architectural innovation in the power generation mix is key to sustainable UK electricity production and supply

Rule Optimization of Fuzzy Inference System Sugeno using Evolution Strategy for Electricity Consumption Forecasting

The need for accurate load forecasts will increase in the future because of the dramatic changes occurring in the electricity consumption. Sugeno fuzzy inference system (FIS) can be used for short-term load forecasting. However, challenges in the electrical load forecasting are the data used the data trend. Therefore, it is difficult to develop appropriate fuzzy rules for Sugeno FIS. This paper proposes Evolution Strategy method to determine appropriate rules for Sugeno FIS that have minimum forecasting error. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) is used to evaluate the goodness of the forecasting result. The numerical experiments show the effectiveness of the proposed optimized Sugeno FIS for several test-case problems. The optimized Sugeno FIS produce lower RMSE comparable to those achieved by other well-known method in the literature

Analysing and forecasting tourism demand in Vietnam with artificial neural networks

Mestrado APNORVietnam has experienced a tourism boom over the last decade with more than 18 million international tourists in 2019, compared to 1.5 million twenty-five years ago. Tourist spending has translated into rising employment and income for the tourism sector, making it the key driver to the socio-economic development of the country. Facing the COVID-19 pandemic, Vietnam´s tourism has suffered extreme economic losses. However, the number of international tourists is expected to reach the pre-pandemic levels in the next few years after the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. Forecasting tourism demand plays an essential role in predicting future economic development. Accurate predictions of tourism volume would facilitate decision-makers and managers to optimize resource allocation as well as to balance environmental and economic aspects. Various methods to predict tourism demand have been introduced over the years. One of the most prominent approaches is Artificial Neural Network (ANN) thanks to its capability to handle highly volatile and non-linear data. Given the significance of tourism to the economy, a precise forecast of tourism demand would help to foresee the potential economic growth of Vietnam. First, the research aims to analyse Vietnam´s tourism sector with a special focus on international tourists. Next, several ANN architectures are experimented with the datasets from 2008 to 2020, to predict the monthly number of international tourists traveling to Vietnam including COVID-19 lockdown periods. The results showed that with the correct selection of ANN architectures and data from the previous 12 months, the best ANN models can forecast the number of international tourists for next month with a MAPE between 7.9% and 9.2%. As the method proves its forecasting accuracy, it would serve as a valuable tool for Vietnam´s policymakers and firm managers to make better investment and strategic decisions to promote tourism after the COVID-19 situation.O Vietname conheceu um boom turístico na última década com mais de 18 milhões de turistas internacionais em 2019, em comparação com 1,5 milhões há vinte e cinco anos. As despesas turísticas traduziram-se num aumento do emprego e de receitas no sector do turismo, tornando-o no principal motor do desenvolvimento socioeconómico do país. Perante a pandemia da COVID-19, o turismo no Vietname sofreu perdas económicas extremas. Porém, espera-se que o número de turistas internacionais, pós pandemia da COVID-19, atinja os níveis pré-pandémicos nos próximos anos. A previsão da procura turística desempenha um papel essencial na previsão do desenvolvimento económico futuro. Previsões precisas facilitariam os decisores e gestores a otimizar a afetação de recursos, bem como o equilíbrio entre os aspetos ambientais e económicos. Vários métodos para prever a procura turística têm sido introduzidos ao longo dos anos. Uma das abordagens mais proeminentes assenta na metodologia das Redes Neuronais Artificiais (ANN) dada a sua capacidade de lidar com dados voláteis e não lineares. Dada a importância do turismo para a economia, uma previsão precisa da procura turística ajudaria a prever o crescimento económico potencial do Vietname. Em primeiro lugar, a investigação tem por objetivo analisar o sector turístico do Vietname com especial incidência nos turistas internacionais. Em seguida, várias arquiteturas de ANN são experimentadas com um conjunto de dados de 2008 a 2020, para prever o número mensal de turistas internacionais que se deslocam ao Vietname, incluindo os períodos de confinamento relacionados com a COVID-19. Os resultados mostraram, com a correta seleção de arquiteturas ANN e dados dos 12 meses anteriores, os melhores modelos ANN podem prever o número de turistas internacionais para o próximo mês com uma MAPE entre 7,9% e 9,2%. Como o método evidenciou a sua precisão de previsão, o mesmo pode servir como uma ferramenta valiosa para os decisores políticos e gestores de empresas do Vietname, pois irá permitir fazer melhores investimentos e tomarem decisões estratégicas para promover o turismo pós situação da COVID-19

An interpretable multi-stage forecasting framework for energy consumption and CO2 emissions for the transportation sector

The transportation sector is deemed one of the primary sources of energy consumption and greenhouse gases throughout the world. To realise and design sustainable transport, it is imperative to comprehend relationships and evaluate interactions among a set of variables, which may influence transport energy consumption and CO2 emissions. Unlike recent published papers, this study strives to achieve a balance between machine learning (ML) model accuracy and model interpretability using the Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) method for forecasting the energy consumption and CO2 emissions in the UK's transportation sector. To this end, this paper proposes an interpretable multi-stage forecasting framework to simultaneously maximise the ML model accuracy and determine the relationship between the predictions and the influential variables by revealing the contribution of each variable to the predictions. For the UK's transportation sector, the experimental results indicate that road carbon intensity is found to be the most contributing variable to both energy consumption and CO2 emissions predictions. Unlike other studies, population and GDP per capita are found to be uninfluential variables. The proposed multi-stage forecasting framework may assist policymakers in making more informed energy decisions and establishing more accurate investment

AI-driven approaches for optimizing the energy efficiency of integrated energy system

To decarbonize the global energy system and replace the unidirectional architecture of existing grid networks, integrated and electrified energy systems are becoming more demanding. Energy integration is critical for renewable energy sources like wind, solar, and hydropower. However, there are still specific challenges to overcome, such as their high reliance on the weather and the complexity of their integrated operation. As a result, this research goes through the study of a new approach to energy service that has arisen in the shape of data-driven AI technologies, which hold tremendous promise for system improvement while maximizing energy efficiency and reducing carbon emissions. This research aims to evaluate the use of data-driven AI techniques in electrical integrated energy systems, focusing on energy integration, operation, and planning of multiple energy supplies and demand. Based on the formation point, the main research question is: "To what extent do AI algorithms contribute to attaining greater efficiency of integrated grid systems?". It also included a discussion on four key research areas of AI application: Energy and load prediction, fault prediction, AI-based technologies IoT used for smart monitoring grid system optimization such as energy storage, demand response, grid flexibility, and Business value creation. The study adopted a two-way approach that includes empirical research on energy industry expert interviews and a Likert scale survey among energy sector representatives from Finland, Norway, and Nepal. On the other hand, the theoretical part was from current energy industry optimization models and a review of publications linked to a given research issue. The research's key findings were AI's significant potential in electrically integrated energy systems, which concluded AI's implication as a better understanding of energy consumption patterns, highly effective and precise energy load and fault prediction, automated energy management, enhanced energy storage system, more excellent business value, a smart control center, smooth monitoring, tracking, and communication of energy networks. In addition, further research directions are prospects towards its technical characteristics on energy conversion

A Review on Energy Consumption Optimization Techniques in IoT Based Smart Building Environments

In recent years, due to the unnecessary wastage of electrical energy in residential buildings, the requirement of energy optimization and user comfort has gained vital importance. In the literature, various techniques have been proposed addressing the energy optimization problem. The goal of each technique was to maintain a balance between user comfort and energy requirements such that the user can achieve the desired comfort level with the minimum amount of energy consumption. Researchers have addressed the issue with the help of different optimization algorithms and variations in the parameters to reduce energy consumption. To the best of our knowledge, this problem is not solved yet due to its challenging nature. The gap in the literature is due to the advancements in the technology and drawbacks of the optimization algorithms and the introduction of different new optimization algorithms. Further, many newly proposed optimization algorithms which have produced better accuracy on the benchmark instances but have not been applied yet for the optimization of energy consumption in smart homes. In this paper, we have carried out a detailed literature review of the techniques used for the optimization of energy consumption and scheduling in smart homes. The detailed discussion has been carried out on different factors contributing towards thermal comfort, visual comfort, and air quality comfort. We have also reviewed the fog and edge computing techniques used in smart homes

State-of-the-art on research and applications of machine learning in the building life cycle

Fueled by big data, powerful and affordable computing resources, and advanced algorithms, machine learning has been explored and applied to buildings research for the past decades and has demonstrated its potential to enhance building performance. This study systematically surveyed how machine learning has been applied at different stages of building life cycle. By conducting a literature search on the Web of Knowledge platform, we found 9579 papers in this field and selected 153 papers for an in-depth review. The number of published papers is increasing year by year, with a focus on building design, operation, and control. However, no study was found using machine learning in building commissioning. There are successful pilot studies on fault detection and diagnosis of HVAC equipment and systems, load prediction, energy baseline estimate, load shape clustering, occupancy prediction, and learning occupant behaviors and energy use patterns. None of the existing studies were adopted broadly by the building industry, due to common challenges including (1) lack of large scale labeled data to train and validate the model, (2) lack of model transferability, which limits a model trained with one data-rich building to be used in another building with limited data, (3) lack of strong justification of costs and benefits of deploying machine learning, and (4) the performance might not be reliable and robust for the stated goals, as the method might work for some buildings but could not be generalized to others. Findings from the study can inform future machine learning research to improve occupant comfort, energy efficiency, demand flexibility, and resilience of buildings, as well as to inspire young researchers in the field to explore multidisciplinary approaches that integrate building science, computing science, data science, and social science

Digitizing grey portions of e-governance

Purpose: The purpose of this research paper is to assess e-governance efficacy in various sectors of India. The paper develops on Grey System Theory (GST) methodology and enlightens grey portions of e-governance in select sectors. Research study identifies few grey criteria which affect implementation of information and communication technology (ICT) applications to support sustainable e-governance. Such criteria are related to information security breaches, information technology (IT) policy implementation, investments and strategic advantages for the various sector developments. Design/methodology/approach: Considering “information” as a sensitive element to security for administration and part of dark portion to Indian economy, GST-based COmplex PRroportional ASsessment (COPRAS-G) method is adopted to assess the e-governance efficacy. The method provides flexible multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) approach to assess e-governance in prioritizing the sector alternatives of future strategic development. Priority order of select sectors is estimated, and COPRAS-G method is used in the research study to support decision-making on e-governance. Study compares ten major gross domestic product-dependent sectors based on few grey criteria. These criteria are chosen based on authors’ perspective on this study and feedback received from government officials of district levels under the Digital India-training programme. To address the subjectivity that lies in e-governance grey areas of sector, criteria are also weighted using fuzzy scale. Later methodology-based results are presented to draw a strategic road map for strategic development of the country. Findings: On applying COPRAS-G method to predict pessimistic, optimistic and realistic scenarios of e-governance implementation across the ten sectors, high priory order in realistic scenario of results shows that implementation of ICT applications for e-governance should be in the sectors such as environment, climate change and in the railways. Industrial sector is also ranked as the preferred one over the other sectors on the basis of e-governance efficacy assessment. Research limitations/implications: Here COPRAS-G method is used as MCDM techniques. However, few other MCDM techniques such as GRA, DRSA, VIKOR, SMAA, SWARA and SAW can be also explored to outrank various Indian sectors to deal with subjectivity in decision-making. Practical implications: Implementation of ICT applications to support e-governance varies from sector to sector. ICT-based governance involves high degree of complexity in driving the operations for development of respective sectors. Therefore, government and policymakers need more flexibility to overcome present barriers of sector development. Such research can support decision-making where GST-based COPRAS-G method is able to capture and address the breaches of information security. Moreover, management concern for sector development has been presented on the basis of pessimistic, optimistic and realistic scenarios more precisely. Social implications: The results can provide guidance to the academicians, policymakers and public sectors highlighting various possible measures to handle the security breaches in multi-facet intention of sustainable development. The outcomes from MCDM framework can also help in drawing a rough trajectory of strategy, i.e. development of ICTs applications and e-governance process. Originality/value: This paper can supplement and act as the support for decision-making in conflicting situations on different flexible scenarios. Moreover, such work can synergize conflicting ideas of decision makers, academics and various other stakeholders of the Indian IT sector