Exact Inference Techniques for the Analysis of Bayesian Attack Graphs

Attack graphs are a powerful tool for security risk assessment by analysing network vulnerabilities and the paths attackers can use to compromise network resources. The uncertainty about the attacker's behaviour makes Bayesian networks suitable to model attack graphs to perform static and dynamic analysis. Previous approaches have focused on the formalization of attack graphs into a Bayesian model rather than proposing mechanisms for their analysis. In this paper we propose to use efficient algorithms to make exact inference in Bayesian attack graphs, enabling the static and dynamic network risk assessments. To support the validity of our approach we have performed an extensive experimental evaluation on synthetic Bayesian attack graphs with different topologies, showing the computational advantages in terms of time and memory use of the proposed techniques when compared to existing approaches.Comment: 14 pages, 15 figure

Assessing and augmenting SCADA cyber security: a survey of techniques

SCADA systems monitor and control critical infrastructures of national importance such as power generation and distribution, water supply, transportation networks, and manufacturing facilities. The pervasiveness, miniaturisations and declining costs of internet connectivity have transformed these systems from strictly isolated to highly interconnected networks. The connectivity provides immense benefits such as reliability, scalability and remote connectivity, but at the same time exposes an otherwise isolated and secure system, to global cyber security threats. This inevitable transformation to highly connected systems thus necessitates effective security safeguards to be in place as any compromise or downtime of SCADA systems can have severe economic, safety and security ramifications. One way to ensure vital asset protection is to adopt a viewpoint similar to an attacker to determine weaknesses and loopholes in defences. Such mind sets help to identify and fix potential breaches before their exploitation. This paper surveys tools and techniques to uncover SCADA system vulnerabilities. A comprehensive review of the selected approaches is provided along with their applicability

In-depth comparative evaluation of supervised machine learning approaches for detection of cybersecurity threats

This paper describes the process and results of analyzing CICIDS2017, a modern, labeled data set for testing intrusion detection systems. The data set is divided into several days, each pertaining to different attack classes (Dos, DDoS, infiltration, botnet, etc.). A pipeline has been created that includes nine supervised learning algorithms. The goal was binary classification of benign versus attack traffic. Cross-validated parameter optimization, using a voting mechanism that includes five classification metrics, was employed to select optimal parameters. These results were interpreted to discover whether certain parameter choices were dominant for most (or all) of the attack classes. Ultimately, every algorithm was retested with optimal parameters to obtain the final classification scores. During the review of these results, execution time, both on consumerand corporate-grade equipment, was taken into account as an additional requirement. The work detailed in this paper establishes a novel supervised machine learning performance baseline for CICIDS2017

Assessing Security Risk to a Network Using a Statistical Model of Attacker Community Competence

We propose a novel approach for statistical risk modeling of network attacks that lets an operator perform risk analysis using a data model and an impact model on top of an attack graph in combination with a statistical model of the attacker community exploitation skill. The data model describes how data flows between nodes in the network -- how it is copied and processed by softwares and hosts -- while the impact model models how exploitation of vulnerabilities affects the data flows with respect to the confidentiality, integrity and availability of the data. In addition, by assigning a loss value to a compromised data set, we can estimate the cost of a successful attack. The statistical model lets us incorporate real-time monitor data from a honeypot in the risk calculation. The exploitation skill distribution is inferred by first classifying each vulnerability into a required exploitation skill-level category, then mapping each skill-level into a distribution over the required exploitation skill, and last applying Bayesian inference over the attack data. The final security risk is thereafter computed by marginalizing over the exploitation skill

Dynamic deployment of context-aware access control policies for constrained security devices

Securing the access to a server, guaranteeing a certain level of protection over an encrypted communication channel, executing particular counter measures when attacks are detected are examples of security requirements. Such requirements are identi ed based on organizational purposes and expectations in terms of resource access and availability and also on system vulnerabilities and threats. All these requirements belong to the so-called security policy. Deploying the policy means enforcing, i.e., con guring, those security components and mechanisms so that the system behavior be nally the one speci ed by the policy. The deployment issue becomes more di cult as the growing organizational requirements and expectations generally leave behind the integration of new security functionalities in the information system: the information system will not always embed the necessary security functionalities for the proper deployment of contextual security requirements. To overcome this issue, our solution is based on a central entity approach which takes in charge unmanaged contextual requirements and dynamically redeploys the policy when context changes are detected by this central entity. We also present an improvement over the OrBAC (Organization-Based Access Control) model. Up to now, a controller based on a contextual OrBAC policy is passive, in the sense that it assumes policy evaluation triggered by access requests. Therefore, it does not allow reasoning about policy state evolution when actions occur. The modi cations introduced by our work overcome this limitation and provide a proactive version of the model by integrating concepts from action speci cation languages