Uncertainty in Bus Arrival Time Predictions: Treating Heteroscedasticity With a Metamodel Approach

Arrival time predictions for the next available bus or train are a key component of modern Traveller Information Systems (TIS). A great deal of research has been conducted within the ITS community developing an assortment of different algorithms that seek to increase the accuracy of these predictions. However, the inherent stochastic and non-linear nature of these systems, particularly in the case of bus transport, means that these predictions suffer from variable sources of error, stemming from variations in weather conditions, bus bunching and numerous other sources. In this paper we tackle the issue of uncertainty in bus arrival time predictions using an alternative approach. Rather than endeavour to develop a superior method for prediction we take existing predictions from a TIS and treat the algorithm generating them as a black box. The presence of heteroscedasticity in the predictions is demonstrated and then a meta-model approach deployed that augments existing predictive systems using quantile regression to place bounds on the associated error. As a case study this approach is applied to data from a real-world TIS in Boston. This method allows bounds on the predicted arrival time to be estimated, which give a measure of the uncertainty associated with the individual predictions. This represents to the best of our knowledge the first application of methods to handle the uncertainty in bus arrival times that explicitly takes into account the inherent heteroscedasticity. The meta-model approach is agnostic to the process generating the predictions which ensures the methodology is implementable in any system

Novel proposal for prediction of CO2 course and occupancy recognition in Intelligent Buildings within IoT

Many direct and indirect methods, processes, and sensors available on the market today are used to monitor the occupancy of selected Intelligent Building (IB) premises and the living activities of IB residents. By recognizing the occupancy of individual spaces in IB, IB can be optimally automated in conjunction with energy savings. This article proposes a novel method of indirect occupancy monitoring using CO2, temperature, and relative humidity measured by means of standard operating measurements using the KNX (Konnex (standard EN 50090, ISO/IEC 14543)) technology to monitor laboratory room occupancy in an intelligent building within the Internet of Things (IoT). The article further describes the design and creation of a Software (SW) tool for ensuring connectivity of the KNX technology and the IoT IBM Watson platform in real-time for storing and visualization of the values measured using a Message Queuing Telemetry Transport (MQTT) protocol and data storage into a CouchDB type database. As part of the proposed occupancy determination method, the prediction of the course of CO2 concentration from the measured temperature and relative humidity values were performed using mathematical methods of Linear Regression, Neural Networks, and Random Tree (using IBM SPSS Modeler) with an accuracy higher than 90%. To increase the accuracy of the prediction, the application of suppression of additive noise from the CO2 signal predicted by CO2 using the Least mean squares (LMS) algorithm in adaptive filtering (AF) method was used within the newly designed method. In selected experiments, the prediction accuracy with LMS adaptive filtration was better than 95%.Web of Science1223art. no. 454

Estimating Uncertainty of Bus Arrival Times and Passenger Occupancies

Travel time reliability and the availability of seating and boarding space are important indicators of bus service quality and strongly influence users’ satisfaction and attitudes towards bus transit systems. With Automated Vehicle Location (AVL) and Automated Passenger Counter (APC) units becoming common on buses, some agencies have begun to provide real-time bus location and passenger occupancy information as a means to improve perceived transit reliability. Travel time prediction models have also been established based on AVL and APC data. However, existing travel time prediction models fail to provide an indication of the uncertainty associated with these estimates. This can cause a false sense of precision, which can lead to experiences associated with unreliable service. Furthermore, no existing models are available to predict individual bus occupancies at downstream stops to help travelers understand if there will be space available to board. The purpose of this project was to develop modeling frameworks to predict travel times (and associated uncertainties) as well as individual bus passenger occupancies. For travel times, accelerated failure-time survival models were used to predict the entire distribution of travel times expected. The survival models were found to be just as accurate as models developed using traditional linear regression techniques. However, the survival models were found to have smaller variances associated with predictions. For passenger occupancies, linear and count regression models were compared. The linear regression models were found to outperform count regression models, perhaps due to the additive nature of the passenger boarding process. Various modeling frameworks were tested and the best frameworks were identified for predictions at near stops (within five stops downstream) and far stops (further than eight stops). Overall, these results can be integrated into existing real-time transit information systems to improve the quality of information provided to passengers

The design of an indirect method for the human presence monitoring in the intelligent building

This article describes the design and verification of the indirect method of predicting the course of CO2 concentration (ppm) from the measured temperature variables Tindoor (degrees C) and the relative humidity rH(indoor) (%) and the temperature T-outdoor (degrees C) using the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) with the Bayesian Regulation Method (BRM) for monitoring the presence of people in the individual premises in the Intelligent Administrative Building (IAB) using the PI System SW Tool (PI-Plant Information enterprise information system). The CA (Correlation Analysis), the MSE (Root Mean Squared Error) and the DTW (Dynamic Time Warping) criteria were used to verify and classify the results obtained. Within the proposed method, the LMS adaptive filter algorithm was used to remove the noise of the resulting predicted course. In order to verify the method, two long-term experiments were performed, specifically from February 1 to February 28, 2015, from June 1 to June 28, 2015 and from February 8 to February 14, 2015. For the best results of the trained ANN BRM within the prediction of CO2, the correlation coefficient R for the proposed method was up to 92%. The verification of the proposed method confirmed the possibility to use the presence of people of the monitored IAB premises for monitoring. The designed indirect method of CO2 prediction has potential for reducing the investment and operating costs of the IAB in relation to the reduction of the number of implemented sensors in the IAB within the process of management of operational and technical functions in the IAB. The article also describes the design and implementation of the FEIVISUAL visualization application for mobile devices, which monitors the technological processes in the IAB. This application is optimized for Android devices and is platform independent. The application requires implementation of an application server that communicates with the data server and the application developed. The data of the application developed is obtained from the data storage of the PI System via a PI Web REST API (Application Programming Integration) client.Web of Science8art. no. 2

Microsimulation models incorporating both demand and supply dynamics

There has been rapid growth in interest in real-time transport strategies over the last decade, ranging from automated highway systems and responsive traffic signal control to incident management and driver information systems. The complexity of these strategies, in terms of the spatial and temporal interactions within the transport system, has led to a parallel growth in the application of traffic microsimulation models for the evaluation and design of such measures, as a remedy to the limitations faced by conventional static, macroscopic approaches. However, while this naturally addresses the immediate impacts of the measure, a difficulty that remains is the question of how the secondary impacts, specifically the effect on route and departure time choice of subsequent trips, may be handled in a consistent manner within a microsimulation framework. The paper describes a modelling approach to road network traffic, in which the emphasis is on the integrated microsimulation of individual trip-makers’ decisions and individual vehicle movements across the network. To achieve this it represents directly individual drivers’ choices and experiences as they evolve from day-to-day, combined with a detailed within-day traffic simulation model of the space–time trajectories of individual vehicles according to car-following and lane-changing rules and intersection regulations. It therefore models both day-to-day and within-day variability in both demand and supply conditions, and so, we believe, is particularly suited for the realistic modelling of real-time strategies such as those listed above. The full model specification is given, along with details of its algorithmic implementation. A number of representative numerical applications are presented, including: sensitivity studies of the impact of day-to-day variability; an application to the evaluation of alternative signal control policies; and the evaluation of the introduction of bus-only lanes in a sub-network of Leeds. Our experience demonstrates that this modelling framework is computationally feasible as a method for providing a fully internally consistent, microscopic, dynamic assignment, incorporating both within- and between-day demand and supply dynamic

Reassessing the financial and social costs of public transport

This paper uses a previously developed spreadsheet cost model which simulates public transport modes operated on a 12km route to analyse the total costs of different passenger demand levels. The previous cost model was a very powerful tool to estimate the social and operator cost for different public transport technologies. However, as the model is strategic based, some assumptions are very basic and idealized and the demand was assumed to be exogenous (externally fixed). When the level of demand is high for the lower capacity public transport technologies, passengers may find the incoming vehicle full and therefore they have to wait more than one service interval. This paper applies queueing theory to investigate the probability of having to wait longer than the expected service headways which will affect the average passenger waiting time. The extra waiting time for each passenger is calculated and applied in the spreadsheet cost model. The speed-flow equation in the original spreadsheet model assumes the speed decreases according to the ratio of the current frequency and the lane capacity which is based on the safety headway without any passenger boarding. However, this may vary in different operating environments. Therefore, the speed equation is improved by moving from a linear equation to a piecewise equation that considers the features of different operating environments. To evaluate the differences after applying these equations, endogenous demand rather than exogenous demand will be investigated by using the elasticities for passenger waiting time and journey time

Performance analysis of a Master/Slave switched Ethernet for military embedded applications

Current military communication network is a generation old and is no longer effective in meeting the emerging requirements imposed by the next generation military embedded applications. A new communication network based upon Full Duplex Switched Ethernet is proposed in this paper to overcome these limitations. To allow existing military subsystems to be easily supported by a Switched Ethernet network, our proposal consists in keeping their current centralized communication scheme by using an optimized master/slave transmission control on Switched Ethernet thanks to the Flexible Time Triggered (FTT) paradigm. Our main objective is to assess the performance of such a proposal and estimate the quality of service we can expect in terms of latency. Using the Network Calculus formalism, schedulability analysis are determined. These analysis are illustrated in the case of a realistic military embedded application extracted from a real military aircraft network, to highlight the proposal's ability to support the required time constrained communications

IoT Security Vulnerabilities and Predictive Signal Jamming Attack Analysis in LoRaWAN

Internet of Things (IoT) gains popularity in recent times due to its flexibility, usability, diverse applicability and ease of deployment. However, the issues related to security is less explored. The IoT devices are light weight in nature and have low computation power, low battery life and low memory. As incorporating security features are resource expensive, IoT devices are often found to be less protected and in recent times, more IoT devices have been routinely attacked due to high profile security flaws. This paper aims to explore the security vulnerabilities of IoT devices particularly that use Low Power Wide Area Networks (LPWANs). In this work, LoRaWAN based IoT security vulnerabilities are scrutinised and loopholes are identified. An attack was designed and simulated with the use of a predictive model of the device data generation. The paper demonstrated that by predicting the data generation model, jamming attack can be carried out to block devices from sending data successfully. This research will aid in the continual development of any necessary countermeasures and mitigations for LoRaWAN and LPWAN functionality of IoT networks in general