Spectrum Management using Markov Decision Processes

Abstract: The advent of cognitive radio technology has enabled dramatically more options in the use of RF spectrum, allowing multiple transmitters to effectively share spectrum in ways that were previously unavailable (either due to technical limitations or regulatory restrictions). In this dissertation, we investigate approaches to managing RF spectrum use, with a focus on combining multiple control decisions in a mutually beneficial manner. Our approach to making spectrum management decisions is grounded in Markov decision theory, which has a rich formal foundation and is frequently used to guide decision making in other disciplines. Here, we develop a set of Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) that model the RF spectrum management problem (in various forms). These MDPs are then queried to provide guidance for management decisions, including the combination of both admission and modulation decisions. This results in control decisions that are optimal in expectation. To address the computational complexity inherent in computing these control decisions, we develop heuristic approaches that mimic the MDP\u27s decisions based upon patterns observed in the MDP decision space. These heuristics are shown to closely approximate the optimal results from the MDP. Finally, we empirically assess the appropriateness of using Markov decision theory for RF spectrum management by comparing our MDPs to a discrete-event simulation model that relaxes several of the modeling assumptions made in the development of the MDPs

Probabilistic and artificial intelligence modelling of drought and agricultural crop yield in Pakistan

Pakistan is a drought-prone, agricultural nation with hydro-meteorological imbalances that increase the scarcity of water resources, thus, constraining water availability and leading major risks to the agricultural productivity sector and food security. Rainfall and drought are imperative matters of consideration, both for hydrological and agricultural applications. The aim of this doctoral thesis is to advance new knowledge in designing hybridized probabilistic and artificial intelligence forecasts models for rainfall, drought and crop yield within the agricultural hubs in Pakistan. The choice of these study regions is a strategic decision, to focus on precision agriculture given the importance of rainfall and drought events on agricultural crops in socioeconomic activities of Pakistan. The outcomes of this PhD contribute to efficient modelling of seasonal rainfall, drought and crop yield to assist farmers and other stakeholders to promote more strategic decisions for better management of climate risk for agriculturalreliant nations

Energy sustainability of next generation cellular networks through learning techniques

The trend for the next generation of cellular network, the Fifth Generation (5G), predicts a 1000x increase in the capacity demand with respect to 4G, which leads to new infrastructure deployments. To this respect, it is estimated that the energy consumption of ICT might reach the 51% of global electricity production by 2030, mainly due to mobile networks and services. Consequently, the cost of energy may also become predominant in the operative expenses of a Mobile Network Operator (MNO). Therefore, an efficient control of the energy consumption in 5G networks is not only desirable but essential. In fact, the energy sustainability is one of the pillars in the design of the next generation cellular networks. In the last decade, the research community has been paying close attention to the Energy Efficiency (EE) of the radio communication networks, with particular care on the dynamic switch ON/OFF of the Base Stations (BSs). Besides, 5G architectures will introduce the Heterogeneous Network (HetNet) paradigm, where Small BSs (SBSs) are deployed to assist the standard macro BS for satisfying the high traffic demand and reducing the impact on the energy consumption. However, only with the introduction of Energy Harvesting (EH) capabilities the networks might reach the needed energy savings for mitigating both the high costs and the environmental impact. In the case of HetNets with EH capabilities, the erratic and intermittent nature of renewable energy sources has to be considered, which entails some additional complexity. Solar energy has been chosen as reference EH source due to its widespread adoption and its high efficiency in terms of energy produced compared to its costs. To this end, in the first part of the thesis, a harvested solar energy model has been presented based on accurate stochastic Markov processes for the description of the energy scavenged by outdoor solar sources. The typical HetNet scenario involves dense deployments with a high level of flexibility, which suggests the usage of distributed control systems rather than centralized, where the scalability can become rapidly a bottleneck. For this reason, in the second part of the thesis, we propose to model the SBS tier as a Multi-agent Reinforcement Learning (MRL) system, where each SBS is an intelligent and autonomous agent, which learns by directly interacting with the environment and by properly utilizing the past experience. The agents implemented in each SBS independently learn a proper switch ON/OFF control policy, so as to jointly maximize the system performance in terms of throughput, drop rate and energy consumption, while adapting to the dynamic conditions of the environment, in terms of energy inflow and traffic demand. However, MRL might suffer the problem of coordination when finding simultaneously a solution among all the agents that is good for the whole system. In consequence, the Layered Learning paradigm has been adopted to simplify the problem by decomposing it in subtasks. In particular, the global solution is obtained in a hierarchical fashion: the learning process of a subtask is aimed at facilitating the learning of the next higher subtask layer. The first layer implements an MRL approach and it is in charge of the local online optimization at SBS level as function of the traffic demand and the energy incomes. The second layer is in charge of the network-wide optimization and it is based on Artificial Neural Networks aimed at estimating the model of the overall network.Con la llegada de la nueva generación de redes móviles, la quinta generación (5G), se predice un aumento por un factor 1000 en la demanda de capacidad respecto a la 4G, con la consecuente instalación de nuevas infraestructuras. Se estima que el gasto energético de las tecnologías de la información y la comunicación podría alcanzar el 51% de la producción mundial de energía en el año 2030, principalmente debido al impacto de las redes y servicios móviles. Consecuentemente, los costes relacionados con el consumo de energía pasarán a ser una componente predominante en los gastos operativos (OPEX) de las operadoras de redes móviles. Por lo tanto, un control eficiente del consumo energético de las redes 5G, ya no es simplemente deseable, sino esencial. En la última década, la comunidad científica ha enfocado sus esfuerzos en la eficiencia energética (EE) de las redes de comunicaciones móviles, con particular énfasis en algoritmos para apagar y encender las estaciones base (BS). Además, las arquitecturas 5G introducirán el paradigma de las redes heterogéneas (HetNet), donde pequeñas BSs, o small BSs (SBSs), serán desplegadas para ayudar a las grandes macro BSs en satisfacer la gran demanda de tráfico y reducir el impacto en el consumo energético. Sin embargo, solo con la introducción de técnicas de captación de la energía ambiental, las redes pueden alcanzar los ahorros energéticos requeridos para mitigar los altos costes de la energía y su impacto en el medio ambiente. En el caso de las HetNets alimentadas mediante energías renovables, la naturaleza errática e intermitente de esta tipología de energías constituye una complejidad añadida al problema. La energía solar ha sido utilizada como referencia debido a su gran implantación y su alta eficiencia en términos de cantidad de energía producida respecto costes de producción. Por consiguiente, en la primera parte de la tesis se presenta un modelo de captación de la energía solar basado en un riguroso modelo estocástico de Markov que representa la energía capturada por paneles solares para exteriores. El escenario típico de HetNet supondrá el despliegue denso de SBSs con un alto nivel de flexibilidad, lo cual sugiere la utilización de sistemas de control distribuidos en lugar de aquellos que están centralizados, donde la adaptabilidad podría convertirse rápidamente en un reto difícilmente gestionable. Por esta razón, en la segunda parte de la tesis proponemos modelar las SBSs como un sistema multiagente de aprendizaje automático por refuerzo, donde cada SBS es un agente inteligente y autónomo que aprende interactuando directamente con su entorno y utilizando su experiencia acumulada. Los agentes en cada SBS aprenden independientemente políticas de control del apagado y encendido que les permiten maximizar conjuntamente el rendimiento y el consumo energético a nivel de sistema, adaptándose a condiciones dinámicas del ambiente tales como la energía renovable entrante y la demanda de tráfico. No obstante, los sistemas multiagente sufren problemas de coordinación cuando tienen que hallar simultáneamente una solución de forma distribuida que sea buena para todo el sistema. A tal efecto, el paradigma de aprendizaje por niveles ha sido utilizado para simplificar el problema dividiéndolo en subtareas. Más detalladamente, la solución global se consigue de forma jerárquica: el proceso de aprendizaje de una subtarea está dirigido a ayudar al aprendizaje de la subtarea del nivel superior. El primer nivel contempla un sistema multiagente de aprendizaje automático por refuerzo y se encarga de la optimización en línea de las SBSs en función de la demanda de tráfico y de la energía entrante. El segundo nivel se encarga de la optimización a nivel de red del sistema y está basado en redes neuronales artificiales diseñadas para estimar el modelo de todas las BSsPostprint (published version

Air Force Institute of Technology Research Report 2012

This report summarizes the research activities of the Air Force Institute of Technology’s Graduate School of Engineering and Management. It describes research interests and faculty expertise; lists student theses/dissertations; identifies research sponsors and contributions; and outlines the procedures for contacting the school. Included in the report are: faculty publications, conference presentations, consultations, and funded research projects. Research was conducted in the areas of Aeronautical and Astronautical Engineering, Electrical Engineering and Electro-Optics, Computer Engineering and Computer Science, Systems and Engineering Management, Operational Sciences, Mathematics, Statistics and Engineering Physics

Designing and evaluating the usability of a machine learning API for rapid prototyping music technology

To better support creative software developers and music technologists' needs, and to empower them as machine learning users and innovators, the usability of and developer experience with machine learning tools must be considered and better understood. We review background research on the design and evaluation of application programming interfaces (APIs), with a focus on the domain of machine learning for music technology software development. We present the design rationale for the RAPID-MIX API, an easy-to-use API for rapid prototyping with interactive machine learning, and a usability evaluation study with software developers of music technology. A cognitive dimensions questionnaire was designed and delivered to a group of 12 participants who used the RAPID-MIX API in their software projects, including people who developed systems for personal use and professionals developing software products for music and creative technology companies. The results from the questionnaire indicate that participants found the RAPID-MIX API a machine learning API which is easy to learn and use, fun, and good for rapid prototyping with interactive machine learning. Based on these findings, we present an analysis and characterization of the RAPID-MIX API based on the cognitive dimensions framework, and discuss its design trade-offs and usability issues. We use these insights and our design experience to provide design recommendations for ML APIs for rapid prototyping of music technology. We conclude with a summary of the main insights, a discussion of the merits and challenges of the application of the CDs framework to the evaluation of machine learning APIs, and directions to future work which our research deems valuable

Urban Water Demand Prediction for a City that Suffers from Climate Change and Population Growth: Gauteng Province case study

The proper management of municipal water system is essential to sustain cities and support water security of societies. Urban water estimating has always been a challenging task for managers of water utilities and policymakers. This paper applies a novel methodology that includes data pre-processing and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) optimized with Backtracking Search Algorithm (BSA-ANN) to estimate monthly water demand in relation to previous water consumption. Historical data of monthly water consumption in the Gauteng Province, South Africa, for the period 2007–2016, were selected for the creation and evaluation of the methodology. Data pre-processing techniques played a crucial role in the enhancing of the quality of the data before creating the prediction model. The BSA-ANN model yielded the best result with a root mean square error and a coefficient of efficiency of 0.0099 mega liters and 0.979, respectively. Also, it proved more efficient and reliable than the Crow Search Algorithm (CSA-ANN), based on the scale of error. Overall, this paper presents a new application for the hybrid model BSA-ANN that can be successfully used to predict water demand with high accuracy, in a city that heavily suffers from the impact of climate change and population growth