Fresh air in the 21st century?

Ozone is an air quality problem today for much of the world's population. Regions can exceed the ozone air quality standards (AQS) through a combination of local emissions, meteorology favoring pollution episodes, and the clean-air baseline levels of ozone upon which pollution builds. The IPCC 2001 assessment studied a range of global emission scenarios and found that all but one projects increases in global tropospheric ozone during the 21st century. By 2030, near-surface increases over much of the northern hemisphere are estimated to be about 5 ppb (+2 to +7 ppb over the range of scenarios). By 2100 the two more extreme scenarios project baseline ozone increases of >20 ppb, while the other four scenarios give changes of -4 to +10 ppb. Even modest increases in the background abundance of tropospheric ozone might defeat current AQS strategies. The larger increases, however, would gravely threaten both urban and rural air quality over most of the northern hemisphere

A framework for modeling uncertainty in regional climate change

In this study, we present a new modeling framework and a large ensemble of climate projections to investigate the uncertainty in regional climate change over the United States (US) associated with four dimensions of uncertainty. The sources of uncertainty considered in this framework are the emissions projections, global climate system parameters, natural variability and model structural uncertainty. The modeling framework revolves around the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) Integrated Global System Model (IGSM), an integrated assessment model with an Earth System Model of Intermediate Complexity (EMIC) (with a two-dimensional zonal-mean atmosphere). Regional climate change over the US is obtained through a two-pronged approach. First, we use the IGSM-CAM framework, which links the IGSM to the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Atmosphere Model (CAM). Second, we use a pattern-scaling method that extends the IGSM zonal mean based on climate change patterns from various climate models. Results show that the range of annual mean temperature changes are mainly driven by policy choices and the range of climate sensitivity considered. Meanwhile, the four sources of uncertainty contribute more equally to end-of-century precipitation changes, with natural variability dominating until 2050. For the set of scenarios used in this study, the choice of policy is the largest driver of uncertainty, defined as the range of warming and changes in precipitation, in future projections of climate change over the US

Potentially Extreme Population Displacement and Concentration in the Tropics Under Non-Extreme Warming.

Evidence increasingly suggests that as climate warms, some plant, animal, and human populations may move to preserve their environmental temperature. The distances they must travel to do this depends on how much cooler nearby surfaces temperatures are. Because large-scale atmospheric dynamics constrain surface temperatures to be nearly uniform near the equator, these displacements can grow to extreme distances in the tropics, even under relatively mild warming scenarios. Here we show that in order to preserve their annual mean temperatures, tropical populations would have to travel distances greater than 1000 km over less than a century if global mean temperature rises by 2 °C over the same period. The disproportionately rapid evacuation of the tropics under such a scenario would cause migrants to concentrate in tropical margins and the subtropics, where population densities would increase 300% or more. These results may have critical consequences for ecosystem and human wellbeing in tropical contexts where alternatives to geographic displacement are limited

Decadal changes of the Western Arabian sea ecosystem

Historical data from oceanographic expeditions and remotely sensed data on outgoing longwave radiation, temperature, wind speed and ocean color in the western Arabian Sea (1950–2010) were used to investigate decadal trends in the physical and biochemical properties of the upper 300 m. 72 % of the 29,043 vertical profiles retrieved originated from USA and UK expeditions. Increasing outgoing longwave radiation, surface air temperatures and sea surface temperature were identified on decadal timescales. These were well correlated with decreasing wind speeds associated with a reduced Siberian High atmospheric anomaly. Shoaling of the oxycline and nitracline was observed as well as acidification of the upper 300 m. These physical and chemical changes were accompanied by declining chlorophyll-a concentrations, vertical macrofaunal habitat compression, declining sardine landings and an increase of fish kill incidents along the Omani coast

Analysis of Climate Policy Targets under Uncertainty

Abstract and PDF report are also available on the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change website (http://globalchange.mit.edu/).Although policymaking in response to the climate change is essentially a challenge of risk management, most studies of the relation of emissions targets to desired climate outcomes are either deterministic or subject to a limited representation of the underlying uncertainties. Monte Carlo simulation, applied to the MIT Integrated Global System Model (an integrated economic and earth system model of intermediate complexity), is used to analyze the uncertain outcomes that flow from a set of century-scale emissions targets developed originally for a study by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program. Results are shown for atmospheric concentrations, radiative forcing, sea ice cover and temperature change, along with estimates of the odds of achieving particular target levels, and for the global costs of the associated mitigation policy. Comparison with other studies of climate targets are presented as evidence of the value, in understanding the climate challenge, of more complete analysis of uncertainties in human emissions and climate system response.This study received support from the MIT Joint Program on the Science and Policy of Global Change, which is funded by a consortium of government, industry and foundation sponsors

Sea otter, Enhydra lutris, containment management: field studies and feasibility assessment

Limiting sea otter geographic distribution in California (containment management) has long been recognized as being necessary to preserve human recreational and commercial uses of shellfish resources. However, passage of federal legislation that focused preferentially on marine mammal protection and the 1977 listing of the California sea otter population as "threatened" effectively precluded any range-limiting management program. Research, however, that evaluated various non-lethal means of influencing sea otter movements and distribution was encouraged. Our research suggests that herding and acoustical devices may not have any real potential use in this context. Based on research-related capture success rates, capture and relocation techniques may be useful in influencing sea otter geographical distribution. The translocation of sea otters to San Nicolas Island provided the first opportunity to test the technical feasibility of maintaining a large area free of sea otters. Capture success rates were appreciably poorer than those achieved during research-related efforts. We identify several logistical and behavioral influences that contributed to the relatively poor success rate. Based on this evaluation, we discuss the factors likely to limit application of these techniques in the future. We feel that capture techniques can be useful in a long-term management program, if used in conjunction with efforts to limit the sea otter population growth rate. Consequently, we feel future research should focus on assessing individual health effects from using chemical contraceptives and assessing the feasibility of their use to safely control population growth. (12pp.

The Comparative Exploration of the Ice Giant Planets with Twin Spacecraft: Unveiling the History of our Solar System

In the course of the selection of the scientific themes for the second and third L-class missions of the Cosmic Vision 2015-2025 program of the European Space Agency, the exploration of the ice giant planets Uranus and Neptune was defined "a timely milestone, fully appropriate for an L class mission". Among the proposed scientific themes, we presented the scientific case of exploring both planets and their satellites in the framework of a single L-class mission and proposed a mission scenario that could allow to achieve this result. In this work we present an updated and more complete discussion of the scientific rationale and of the mission concept for a comparative exploration of the ice giant planets Uranus and Neptune and of their satellite systems with twin spacecraft. The first goal of comparatively studying these two similar yet extremely different systems is to shed new light on the ancient past of the Solar System and on the processes that shaped its formation and evolution. This, in turn, would reveal whether the Solar System and the very diverse extrasolar systems discovered so far all share a common origin or if different environments and mechanisms were responsible for their formation. A space mission to the ice giants would also open up the possibility to use Uranus and Neptune as templates in the study of one of the most abundant type of extrasolar planets in the galaxy. Finally, such a mission would allow a detailed study of the interplanetary and gravitational environments at a range of distances from the Sun poorly covered by direct exploration, improving the constraints on the fundamental theories of gravitation and on the behaviour of the solar wind and the interplanetary magnetic field.Comment: 29 pages, 4 figures; accepted for publication on the special issue "The outer Solar System X" of the journal Planetary and Space Science. This article presents an updated and expanded discussion of the white paper "The ODINUS Mission Concept" (arXiv:1402.2472) submitted in response to the ESA call for ideas for the scientific themes of the future L2 and L3 space mission

Spreading of Antarctic Bottom Water in the Atlantic Ocean

This paper describes the transport of bottom water from its source region in the Weddell Sea through the abyssal channels of the Atlantic Ocean. The research brings together the recent observations and historical data. A strong flow of Antarctic Bottom Water through the Vema Channel is analyzed. The mean speed of the flow is 30 cm/s. A temperature increase was found in the deep Vema Channel, which has been observed for 30 years already. The flow of bottom water in the northern part of the Brazil Basin splits. Part of the water flows through the Romanche and Chain fracture zones. The other part flows to the North American Basin. Part of the latter flow propagates through the Vema Fracture Zone into the Northeast Atlantic. The properties of bottom water in the Kane Gap and Discovery Gap are also analyzed

Impervious surface estimation using remote sensing images and gis : how accurate is the estimate at subdivision level?

Impervious surface has long been accepted as a key environmental indicator linking development to its impacts on water. Many have suggested that there is a direct correlation between degree of imperviousness and both quantity and quality of water. Quantifying the amount of impervious surface, however, remains difficult and tedious especially in urban areas. Lately more efforts have been focused on the application of remote sensing and GIS technologies in assessing the amount of impervious surface and many have reported promising results at various pixel levels. This paper discusses an attempt at estimating the amount of impervious surface at subdivision level using remote sensing images and GIS techniques. Using Landsat ETM+ images and GIS techniques, a regression tree model is first developed for estimating pixel imperviousness. GIS zonal functions are then used to estimate the amount of impervious surface for a sample of subdivisions. The accuracy of the model is evaluated by comparing the model-predicted imperviousness to digitized imperviousness at the subdivision level. The paper then concludes with a discussion on the convenience and accuracy of using the method to estimate imperviousness for large areas