BPRS: Belief Propagation Based Iterative Recommender System

In this paper we introduce the first application of the Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm in the design of recommender systems. We formulate the recommendation problem as an inference problem and aim to compute the marginal probability distributions of the variables which represent the ratings to be predicted. However, computing these marginal probability functions is computationally prohibitive for large-scale systems. Therefore, we utilize the BP algorithm to efficiently compute these functions. Recommendations for each active user are then iteratively computed by probabilistic message passing. As opposed to the previous recommender algorithms, BPRS does not require solving the recommendation problem for all the users if it wishes to update the recommendations for only a single active. Further, BPRS computes the recommendations for each user with linear complexity and without requiring a training period. Via computer simulations (using the 100K MovieLens dataset), we verify that BPRS iteratively reduces the error in the predicted ratings of the users until it converges. Finally, we confirm that BPRS is comparable to the state of art methods such as Correlation-based neighborhood model (CorNgbr) and Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) in terms of rating and precision accuracy. Therefore, we believe that the BP-based recommendation algorithm is a new promising approach which offers a significant advantage on scalability while providing competitive accuracy for the recommender systems

The Dopaminergic Midbrain Encodes the Expected Certainty about Desired Outcomes

Dopamine plays a key role in learning; however, its exact function in decision making and choice remains unclear. Recently, we proposed a generic model based on active (Bayesian) inference wherein dopamine encodes the precision of beliefs about optimal policies. Put simply, dopamine discharges reflect the confidence that a chosen policy will lead to desired outcomes. We designed a novel task to test this hypothesis, where subjects played a "limited offer" game in a functional magnetic resonance imaging experiment. Subjects had to decide how long to wait for a high offer before accepting a low offer, with the risk of losing everything if they waited too long. Bayesian model comparison showed that behavior strongly supported active inference, based on surprise minimization, over classical utility maximization schemes. Furthermore, midbrain activity, encompassing dopamine projection neurons, was accurately predicted by trial-by-trial variations in model-based estimates of precision. Our findings demonstrate that human subjects infer both optimal policies and the precision of those inferences, and thus support the notion that humans perform hierarchical probabilistic Bayesian inference. In other words, subjects have to infer both what they should do as well as how confident they are in their choices, where confidence may be encoded by dopaminergic firing

Active inference, evidence accumulation, and the urn task

Deciding how much evidence to accumulate before making a decision is a problem we and other animals often face, but one that is not completely understood. This issue is particularly important because a tendency to sample less information (often known as reflection impulsivity) is a feature in several psychopathologies, such as psychosis. A formal understanding of information sampling may therefore clarify the computational anatomy of psychopathology. In this theoretical letter, we consider evidence accumulation in terms of active (Bayesian) inference using a generic model of Markov decision processes. Here, agents are equipped with beliefs about their own behavior--in this case, that they will make informed decisions. Normative decision making is then modeled using variational Bayes to minimize surprise about choice outcomes. Under this scheme, different facets of belief updating map naturally onto the functional anatomy of the brain (at least at a heuristic level). Of particular interest is the key role played by the expected precision of beliefs about control, which we have previously suggested may be encoded by dopaminergic neurons in the midbrain. We show that manipulating expected precision strongly affects how much information an agent characteristically samples, and thus provides a possible link between impulsivity and dopaminergic dysfunction. Our study therefore represents a step toward understanding evidence accumulation in terms of neurobiologically plausible Bayesian inference and may cast light on why this process is disordered in psychopathology

Attentional Enhancement of Auditory Mismatch Responses: a DCM/MEG Study.

Despite similar behavioral effects, attention and expectation influence evoked responses differently: Attention typically enhances event-related responses, whereas expectation reduces them. This dissociation has been reconciled under predictive coding, where prediction errors are weighted by precision associated with attentional modulation. Here, we tested the predictive coding account of attention and expectation using magnetoencephalography and modeling. Temporal attention and sensory expectation were orthogonally manipulated in an auditory mismatch paradigm, revealing opposing effects on evoked response amplitude. Mismatch negativity (MMN) was enhanced by attention, speaking against its supposedly pre-attentive nature. This interaction effect was modeled in a canonical microcircuit using dynamic causal modeling, comparing models with modulation of extrinsic and intrinsic connectivity at different levels of the auditory hierarchy. While MMN was explained by recursive interplay of sensory predictions and prediction errors, attention was linked to the gain of inhibitory interneurons, consistent with its modulation of sensory precision

Information passing in healthcare social networks

In recent years, social networks have become one of the most influential developments in our lives. In this paper, we investigate trust relationships and information passing in online social networks that focus on health. Our results are based on a social network called doktorsitesi.com which is the one of the largest online social networks in Turkey about healthcare that is managed by professionals. We show that there is a connection among patients in terms of information passing in doktorlarsitesi.com and quantify this information passing. Our findings implicate that healthcare interactions are embedded in social networks, and the results on the existence of information passing on other types of e-commerce social networks also apply to healthcare social networks.Publisher's Versio

Optimal inference with suboptimal models:Addiction and active Bayesian inference

When casting behaviour as active (Bayesian) inference, optimal inference is defined with respect to an agent's beliefs - based on its generative model of the world. This contrasts with normative accounts of choice behaviour, in which optimal actions are considered in relation to the true structure of the environment - as opposed to the agent's beliefs about worldly states (or the task). This distinction shifts an understanding of suboptimal or pathological behaviour away from aberrant inference as such, to understanding the prior beliefs of a subject that cause them to behave less 'optimally' than our prior beliefs suggest they should behave. Put simply, suboptimal or pathological behaviour does not speak against understanding behaviour in terms of (Bayes optimal) inference, but rather calls for a more refined understanding of the subject's generative model upon which their (optimal) Bayesian inference is based. Here, we discuss this fundamental distinction and its implications for understanding optimality, bounded rationality and pathological (choice) behaviour. We illustrate our argument using addictive choice behaviour in a recently described 'limited offer' task. Our simulations of pathological choices and addictive behaviour also generate some clear hypotheses, which we hope to pursue in ongoing empirical work

Predicting protein functions with message passing algorithms

Motivation: In the last few years a growing interest in biology has been shifting towards the problem of optimal information extraction from the huge amount of data generated via large scale and high-throughput techniques. One of the most relevant issues has recently become that of correctly and reliably predicting the functions of observed but still functionally undetermined proteins starting from information coming from the network of co-observed proteins of known functions. Method: The method proposed in this article is based on a message passing algorithm known as Belief Propagation, which takes as input the network of proteins physical interactions and a catalog of known proteins functions, and returns the probabilities for each unclassified protein of having one chosen function. The implementation of the algorithm allows for fast on-line analysis, and can be easily generalized to more complex graph topologies taking into account hyper-graphs, {\em i.e.} complexes of more than two interacting proteins.Comment: 12 pages, 9 eps figures, 1 additional html tabl