Wavelet Neural Networks: A Practical Guide

Wavelet networks (WNs) are a new class of networks which have been used with great success in a wide range of application. However a general accepted framework for applying WNs is missing from the literature. In this study, we present a complete statistical model identification framework in order to apply WNs in various applications. The following subjects were thorough examined: the structure of a WN, training methods, initialization algorithms, variable significance and variable selection algorithms, model selection methods and finally methods to construct confidence and prediction intervals. In addition the complexity of each algorithm is discussed. Our proposed framework was tested in two simulated cases, in one chaotic time series described by the Mackey-Glass equation and in three real datasets described by daily temperatures in Berlin, daily wind speeds in New York and breast cancer classification. Our results have shown that the proposed algorithms produce stable and robust results indicating that our proposed framework can be applied in various applications

Advanced energy management strategies for HVAC systems in smart buildings

The efficacy of the energy management systems at dealing with energy consumption in buildings has been a topic with a growing interest in recent years due to the ever-increasing global energy demand and the large percentage of energy being currently used by buildings. The scale of this sector has attracted research effort with the objective of uncovering potential improvement avenues and materializing them with the help of recent technological advances that could be exploited to lower the energetic footprint of buildings. Specifically, in the area of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations, the availability of large amounts of historical data in building management software suites makes possible the study of how resource-efficient these systems really are when entrusted with ensuring occupant comfort. Actually, recent reports have shown that there is a gap between the ideal operating performance and the performance achieved in practice. Accordingly, this thesis considers the research of novel energy management strategies for heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations in buildings, aimed at narrowing the performance gap by employing data-driven methods to increase their context awareness, allowing management systems to steer the operation towards higher efficiency. This includes the advancement of modeling methodologies capable of extracting actionable knowledge from historical building behavior databases, through load forecasting and equipment operational performance estimation supporting the identification of a building’s context and energetic needs, and the development of a generalizable multi-objective optimization strategy aimed at meeting these needs while minimizing the consumption of energy. The experimental results obtained from the implementation of the developed methodologies show a significant potential for increasing energy efficiency of heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems while being sufficiently generic to support their usage in different installations having diverse equipment. In conclusion, a complete analysis and actuation framework was developed, implemented and validated by means of an experimental database acquired from a pilot plant during the research period of this thesis. The obtained results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed standalone contributions, and as a whole represent a suitable solution for helping to increase the performance of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations without affecting the comfort of their occupants.L’eficàcia dels sistemes de gestió d’energia per afrontar el consum d’energia en edificis és un tema que ha rebut un interès en augment durant els darrers anys a causa de la creixent demanda global d’energia i del gran percentatge d’energia que n’utilitzen actualment els edificis. L’escala d’aquest sector ha atret l'atenció de nombrosa investigació amb l’objectiu de descobrir possibles vies de millora i materialitzar-les amb l’ajuda de recents avenços tecnològics que es podrien aprofitar per disminuir les necessitats energètiques dels edificis. Concretament, en l’àrea d’instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització, la disponibilitat de grans bases de dades històriques als sistemes de gestió d’edificis fa possible l’estudi de com d'eficients són realment aquests sistemes quan s’encarreguen d'assegurar el confort dels seus ocupants. En realitat, informes recents indiquen que hi ha una diferència entre el rendiment operatiu ideal i el rendiment generalment assolit a la pràctica. En conseqüència, aquesta tesi considera la investigació de noves estratègies de gestió de l’energia per a instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització en edificis, destinades a reduir la diferència de rendiment mitjançant l’ús de mètodes basats en dades per tal d'augmentar el seu coneixement contextual, permetent als sistemes de gestió dirigir l’operació cap a zones de treball amb un rendiment superior. Això inclou tant l’avanç de metodologies de modelat capaces d’extreure coneixement de bases de dades de comportaments històrics d’edificis a través de la previsió de càrregues de consum i l’estimació del rendiment operatiu dels equips que recolzin la identificació del context operatiu i de les necessitats energètiques d’un edifici, tant com del desenvolupament d’una estratègia d’optimització multi-objectiu generalitzable per tal de minimitzar el consum d’energia mentre es satisfan aquestes necessitats energètiques. Els resultats experimentals obtinguts a partir de la implementació de les metodologies desenvolupades mostren un potencial important per augmentar l'eficiència energètica dels sistemes de climatització, mentre que són prou genèrics com per permetre el seu ús en diferents instal·lacions i suportant equips diversos. En conclusió, durant aquesta tesi es va desenvolupar, implementar i validar un marc d’anàlisi i actuació complet mitjançant una base de dades experimental adquirida en una planta pilot durant el període d’investigació de la tesi. Els resultats obtinguts demostren l’eficàcia de les contribucions de manera individual i, en conjunt, representen una solució idònia per ajudar a augmentar el rendiment de les instal·lacions de climatització sense afectar el confort dels seus ocupantsPostprint (published version

Advanced energy management strategies for HVAC systems in smart buildings

The efficacy of the energy management systems at dealing with energy consumption in buildings has been a topic with a growing interest in recent years due to the ever-increasing global energy demand and the large percentage of energy being currently used by buildings. The scale of this sector has attracted research effort with the objective of uncovering potential improvement avenues and materializing them with the help of recent technological advances that could be exploited to lower the energetic footprint of buildings. Specifically, in the area of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations, the availability of large amounts of historical data in building management software suites makes possible the study of how resource-efficient these systems really are when entrusted with ensuring occupant comfort. Actually, recent reports have shown that there is a gap between the ideal operating performance and the performance achieved in practice. Accordingly, this thesis considers the research of novel energy management strategies for heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations in buildings, aimed at narrowing the performance gap by employing data-driven methods to increase their context awareness, allowing management systems to steer the operation towards higher efficiency. This includes the advancement of modeling methodologies capable of extracting actionable knowledge from historical building behavior databases, through load forecasting and equipment operational performance estimation supporting the identification of a building’s context and energetic needs, and the development of a generalizable multi-objective optimization strategy aimed at meeting these needs while minimizing the consumption of energy. The experimental results obtained from the implementation of the developed methodologies show a significant potential for increasing energy efficiency of heating, ventilating and air conditioning systems while being sufficiently generic to support their usage in different installations having diverse equipment. In conclusion, a complete analysis and actuation framework was developed, implemented and validated by means of an experimental database acquired from a pilot plant during the research period of this thesis. The obtained results demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed standalone contributions, and as a whole represent a suitable solution for helping to increase the performance of heating, ventilating and air conditioning installations without affecting the comfort of their occupants.L’eficàcia dels sistemes de gestió d’energia per afrontar el consum d’energia en edificis és un tema que ha rebut un interès en augment durant els darrers anys a causa de la creixent demanda global d’energia i del gran percentatge d’energia que n’utilitzen actualment els edificis. L’escala d’aquest sector ha atret l'atenció de nombrosa investigació amb l’objectiu de descobrir possibles vies de millora i materialitzar-les amb l’ajuda de recents avenços tecnològics que es podrien aprofitar per disminuir les necessitats energètiques dels edificis. Concretament, en l’àrea d’instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització, la disponibilitat de grans bases de dades històriques als sistemes de gestió d’edificis fa possible l’estudi de com d'eficients són realment aquests sistemes quan s’encarreguen d'assegurar el confort dels seus ocupants. En realitat, informes recents indiquen que hi ha una diferència entre el rendiment operatiu ideal i el rendiment generalment assolit a la pràctica. En conseqüència, aquesta tesi considera la investigació de noves estratègies de gestió de l’energia per a instal·lacions de calefacció, ventilació i climatització en edificis, destinades a reduir la diferència de rendiment mitjançant l’ús de mètodes basats en dades per tal d'augmentar el seu coneixement contextual, permetent als sistemes de gestió dirigir l’operació cap a zones de treball amb un rendiment superior. Això inclou tant l’avanç de metodologies de modelat capaces d’extreure coneixement de bases de dades de comportaments històrics d’edificis a través de la previsió de càrregues de consum i l’estimació del rendiment operatiu dels equips que recolzin la identificació del context operatiu i de les necessitats energètiques d’un edifici, tant com del desenvolupament d’una estratègia d’optimització multi-objectiu generalitzable per tal de minimitzar el consum d’energia mentre es satisfan aquestes necessitats energètiques. Els resultats experimentals obtinguts a partir de la implementació de les metodologies desenvolupades mostren un potencial important per augmentar l'eficiència energètica dels sistemes de climatització, mentre que són prou genèrics com per permetre el seu ús en diferents instal·lacions i suportant equips diversos. En conclusió, durant aquesta tesi es va desenvolupar, implementar i validar un marc d’anàlisi i actuació complet mitjançant una base de dades experimental adquirida en una planta pilot durant el període d’investigació de la tesi. Els resultats obtinguts demostren l’eficàcia de les contribucions de manera individual i, en conjunt, representen una solució idònia per ajudar a augmentar el rendiment de les instal·lacions de climatització sense afectar el confort dels seus ocupant

Activity-aware HVAC power demand forecasting

The forecasting of the thermal power demand is essential to support the development of advanced strategies for the management of local resources on the consumer side, such as heating ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment in buildings. In this paper, a novel hybrid methodology is presented for the short-term load forecasting of HVAC thermal power demand in smart buildings based on a data-driven approach. The methodology implements an estimation of the building's activity in order to improve the dynamics responsiveness and context awareness of the demand prediction system, thus improving its accuracy by taking into account the usage pattern of the building. A dedicated activity prediction model supported by a recurrent neural network is built considering this specific indicator, which is then integrated with a power demand model built with an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. Since the power demand is not directly available, an estimation method is proposed, which permits the indirect monitoring of the aggregated power consumption of the terminal units. The presented methodology is validated experimentally in terms of accuracy and performance using real data from a research building, showing that the accuracy of the power prediction can be improved when using a specialized modeling structure to estimate the building's activity.Peer ReviewedPostprint (author's final draft

Recent Development in Electricity Price Forecasting Based on Computational Intelligence Techniques in Deregulated Power Market

The development of artificial intelligence (AI) based techniques for electricity price forecasting (EPF) provides essential information to electricity market participants and managers because of its greater handling capability of complex input and output relationships. Therefore, this research investigates and analyzes the performance of different optimization methods in the training phase of artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) for the accuracy enhancement of EPF. In this work, a multi-objective optimization-based feature selection technique with the capability of eliminating non-linear and interacting features is implemented to create an efficient day-ahead price forecasting. In the beginning, the multi-objective binary backtracking search algorithm (MOBBSA)-based feature selection technique is used to examine various combinations of input variables to choose the suitable feature subsets, which minimizes, simultaneously, both the number of features and the estimation error. In the later phase, the selected features are transferred into the machine learning-based techniques to map the input variables to the output in order to forecast the electricity price. Furthermore, to increase the forecasting accuracy, a backtracking search algorithm (BSA) is applied as an efficient evolutionary search algorithm in the learning procedure of the ANFIS approach. The performance of the forecasting methods for the Queensland power market in the year 2018, which is well-known as the most competitive market in the world, is investigated and compared to show the superiority of the proposed methods over other selected methods.© 2021 by the authors. Licensee MDPI, Basel, Switzerland. This article is an open access article distributed under the terms and conditions of the Creative Commons Attribution (CC BY) license (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).fi=vertaisarvioitu|en=peerReviewed

Automatic classification of special days for short-term load forecasting

Electricity demand presents a repetitive pattern following daily, weekly and seasonal patterns. However, factors like temperature or social events tend to disrupt these patterns introducing outlying data that is difficult to forecast. This paper introduces a new methodology to classify special days without any prior knowledge of the database. Simple classification of special days into two or three categories is insufficient as the consumers’ behavior has many shades on these days. However, classifying special days in a wide range of categories required a deep understanding of the consumers’ behavior on different days and periods of the year. The methodology proposed describes an algorithm to automate this classification starting from a simple day-of-the-week classification and branching into as many categories as needed to fit a real database. Categories with similar profiles are merged to avoid overfitting and actual outliers are detected to ensure that no false categories are created. The methodology is developed using data from 2010 to 2017 and tested in three different systems. The benchmark used is the classification used by the Transmission System Operator in Spain and the test show that the proposed methodology provides more accurate results without the need of an expert to develop the classification

Load forecasting on the user‐side by means of computational intelligence algorithms

Nowadays, it would be very difficult to deny the need to prioritize sustainable development through energy efficiency at all consumption levels. In this context, an energy management system (EMS) is a suitable option for continuously improving energy efficiency, particularly on the user side. An EMS is a set of technological tools that manages energy consumption information and allows its analysis. EMS, in combination with information technologies, has given rise to intelligent EMS (iEMS), which, aside from lending support to monitoring and reporting functions as an EMS does, it has the ability to model, forecast, control and diagnose energy consumption in a predictive way. The main objective of an iEMS is to continuously improve energy efficiency (on-line) as automatically as possible. The core of an iEMS is its load modeling forecasting system (LMFS). It takes advantage of historical information on energy consumption and energy-related variables in order to model and forecast load profiles and, if available, generator profiles. These models and forecasts are the main information used for iEMS applications for control and diagnosis. That is why in this thesis we have focused on the study, analysis and development of LMFS on the user side. The fact that the LMFS is applied on the user side to support an iEMS means that specific characteristics are required that in other areas of load forecasting they are not. First of all, the user-side load profiles (LPs) have a higher random behavior than others, as for example, in power system distribution or generation. This makes the modeling and forecasting process more difficult. Second, on the user side --for example an industrial user-- there is a high number and variety of places that can be monitored, modeled and forecasted, as well as their precedence or nature. Thus, on the one hand, an LMFS requires a high degree of autonomy to automatically or autonomously generate the demanded models. And on the other hand, it needs a high level of adaptability in order to be able to model and forecast different types of loads and different types of energies. Therefore, the addressed LMFS are those that do not look only for accuracy, but also adaptability and autonomy. Seeking to achieve these objectives, in this thesis work we have proposed three novel LMFS schemes based on hybrid algorithms from computational intelligence, signal processing and statistical theory. The first of them looked to improve adaptability, keeping in mind the importance of accuracy and autonomy. It was called an evolutionary training algorithm (ETA) and is based on adaptivenetwork-based-fuzzy-inference system (ANFIS) that is trained by a multi-objective genetic algorithm instead of its traditional training algorithm. As a result of this hybrid, the generalization capacity was improved (avoiding overfitting) and an easily adaptable training algorithm for new adaptive networks based on traditional ANFIS was obtained. The second scheme deals with LMF autonomy in order to build models from multiple loads automatically. Similar to the previous proposal, an ANFIS and a MOGA were used. In this case, the MOGA was used to find a near-optimal configuration for the ANFIS instead of training it. The LMFS relies on this configuration to work properly, as well as to maintain accuracy and generalization capabilities. Real data from an industrial scenario were used to test the proposed scheme and the multi-site modeling and self-configuration results were satisfactory. Furthermore, other algorithms were satisfactorily designed and tested for processing raw data in outlier detection and gap padding. The last of the proposed approaches sought to improve accuracy while keeping autonomy and adaptability. It took advantage of dominant patterns (DPs) that have lower time resolution than the target LP, so they are easier to model and forecast. The Hilbert-Huang transform and Hilbert-spectral analysis were used for detecting and selecting the DPs. Those selected were used in a proposed scheme of partial models (PM) based on parallel ANFIS or artificial neural networks (ANN) to extract the information and give it to the main PM. Therefore, LMFS accuracy improved and the user-side LP noising problem was reduced. Additionally, in order to compensate for the added complexity, versions of self-configured sub-LMFS for each PM were used. This point was fundamental since, the better the configuration, the better the accuracy of the model; and subsequently the information provided to the main partial model was that much better. Finally, and to close this thesis, an outlook of trends regarding iEMS and an outline of several hybrid algorithms that are pending study and testing are presented.En el contexto energético actual y particularmente en el lado del usuario, el concepto de sistema de gestión energética (EMS) se presenta como una alternativa apropiada para mejorar continuamente la eficiencia energética. Los EMSs en combinación con las tecnologías informáticas dan origen al concepto de iEMS, que además de soportar las funciones de los EMS, tienen la capacidad de modelar, pronosticar, controlar y supervisar los consumos energéticos. Su principal objetivo es el de realizar una mejora continua, lo más autónoma posible y predictiva de la eficiencia energética. Este tipo de sistemas tienen como núcleo fundamental el sistema de modelado y pronóstico de consumos (Load Modeling and Forecasting System, LMFS). El LMFS está habilitado para pronosticar el comportamiento futuro de cargas y, si es necesario, de generadores. Es sobre estos pronósticos sobre los cuales el iEMS puede realizar sus tareas automáticas y predictivas de optimización y supervisión. Los LMFS en el lado del usuario son el foco de esta tesis. Un LMFS en el lado del usuario, diseñado para soportar un iEMS requiere o demanda ciertas características que en otros contextos no serían tan necesarias. En primera estancia, los perfiles de los usuarios tienen un alto grado de aleatoriedad que los hace más difíciles de pronosticar. Segundo, en el lado del usuario, por ejemplo en la industria, el gran número de puntos a modelar requiere que el LMFS tenga por un lado, un nivel elevado de autonomía para generar de la manera más desatendida posible los modelos. Por otro lado, necesita un nivel elevado de adaptabilidad para que, usando la misma estructura o metodología, pueda modelar diferentes tipos de cargas cuya procedencia pude variar significativamente. Por lo tanto, los sistemas de modelado abordados en esta tesis son aquellos que no solo buscan mejorar la precisión, sino también la adaptabilidad y autonomía. En busca de estos objetivos y soportados principalmente por algoritmos de inteligencia computacional, procesamiento de señales y estadística, hemos propuesto tres algoritmos novedosos para el desarrollo de un LMFS en el lado del usuario. El primero de ellos busca mejorar la adaptabilidad del LMFS manteniendo una buena precisión y capacidad de autonomía. Denominado ETA, consiste del uso de una estructura ANFIS que es entrenada por un algoritmo genético multi objetivo (MOGA). Como resultado de este híbrido, obtenemos un algoritmo con excelentes capacidades de generalización y fácil de adaptar para el entrenamiento y evaluación de nuevas estructuras adaptativas basadas en ANFIS. El segundo de los algoritmos desarrollados aborda la autonomía del LMFS para así poder generar modelos de múltiples cargas. Al igual que en la anterior propuesta usamos un ANFIS y un MOGA, pero esta vez el MOGA en vez de entrenar el ANFIS, se utiliza para encontrar la configuración cuasi-óptima del ANFIS. Encontrar la configuración apropiada de un ANFIS es muy importante para obtener un buen funcionamiento del LMFS en lo que a precisión y generalización respecta. El LMFS propuesto, además de configurar automáticamente el ANFIS, incluyó diversos algoritmos para procesar los datos puros que casi siempre estuvieron contaminados de datos espurios y gaps de información, operando satisfactoriamente en las condiciones de prueba en un escenario real. El tercero y último de los algoritmos buscó mejorar la precisión manteniendo la autonomía y adaptabilidad, aprovechando para ello la existencia de patrones dominantes de más baja resolución temporal que el consumo objetivo, y que son más fáciles de modelar y pronosticar. La metodología desarrollada se basa en la transformada de Hilbert-Huang para detectar y seleccionar tales patrones dominantes. Además, esta metodología define el uso de modelos parciales de los patrones dominantes seleccionados, para mejorar la precisión del LMFS y mitigar el problema de aleatoriedad que afecta a los consumos en el lado del usuario. Adicionalmente, se incorporó el algoritmo de auto configuración que se presentó en la propuesta anterior para hallar la configuración cuasi-óptima de los modelos parciales. Este punto fue crucial puesto que a mejor configuración de los modelos parciales mayor es la mejora en precisión del pronóstico final. Finalmente y para cerrar este trabajo de tesis, se realizó una prospección de las tendencias en cuanto al uso de iEMS y se esbozaron varias propuestas de algoritmos híbridos, cuyo estudio y comprobación se plantea en futuros estudios