Forecasting foreign exchange rates with adaptive neural networks using radial basis functions and particle swarm optimization

The motivation for this paper is to introduce a hybrid Neural Network architecture of Particle Swarm Optimization and Adaptive Radial Basis Function (ARBF-PSO), a time varying leverage trading strategy based on Glosten, Jagannathan and Runkle (GJR) volatility forecasts and a Neural Network fitness function for financial forecasting purposes. This is done by benchmarking the ARBF-PSO results with those of three different Neural Networks architectures, a Nearest Neighbors algorithm (k-NN), an autoregressive moving average model (ARMA), a moving average convergence/divergence model (MACD) plus a naïve strategy. More specifically, the trading and statistical performance of all models is investigated in a forecast simulation of the EUR/USD, EUR/GBP and EUR/JPY ECB exchange rate fixing time series over the period January 1999 to March 2011 using the last two years for out-of-sample testing

Storage Capacity Estimation of Commercial Scale Injection and Storage of CO2 in the Jacksonburg-Stringtown Oil Field, West Virginia

Geological capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) of carbon dioxide (CO2) in depleted oil and gas reservoirs is one method to reduce greenhouse gas emissions with enhanced oil recovery (EOR) and extending the life of the field. Therefore CCUS coupled with EOR is considered to be an economic approach to demonstration of commercial-scale injection and storage of anthropogenic CO2. Several critical issues should be taken into account prior to injecting large volumes of CO2, such as storage capacity, project duration and long-term containment. Reservoir characterization and 3D geological modeling are the best way to estimate the theoretical CO 2 storage capacity in mature oil fields. The Jacksonburg-Stringtown field, located in northwestern West Virginia, has produced over 22 million barrels of oil (MMBO) since 1895. The sandstone of the Late Devonian Gordon Stray is the primary reservoir.;The Upper Devonian fluvial sandstone reservoirs in Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field, which has produced over 22 million barrels of oil since 1895, are an ideal candidate for CO2 sequestration coupled with EOR. Supercritical depth (\u3e2500 ft.), minimum miscible pressure (941 psi), favorable API gravity (46.5°) and good water flood response are indicators that facilitate CO 2-EOR operations. Moreover, Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field is adjacent to a large concentration of CO2 sources located along the Ohio River that could potentially supply enough CO2 for sequestration and EOR without constructing new pipeline facilities.;Permeability evaluation is a critical parameter to understand the subsurface fluid flow and reservoir management for primary and enhanced hydrocarbon recovery and efficient carbon storage. In this study, a rapid, robust and cost-effective artificial neural network (ANN) model is constructed to predict permeability using the model\u27s strong ability to recognize the possible interrelationships between input and output variables. Two commonly available conventional well logs, gamma ray and bulk density, and three logs derived variables, the slope of GR, the slope of bulk density and Vsh were selected as input parameters and permeability was selected as desired output parameter to train and test an artificial neural network. The results indicate that the ANN model can be applied effectively in permeability prediction.;Porosity is another fundamental property that characterizes the storage capability of fluid and gas bearing formations in a reservoir. In this study, a support vector machine (SVM) with mixed kernels function (MKF) is utilized to construct the relationship between limited conventional well log suites and sparse core data. The input parameters for SVM model consist of core porosity values and the same log suite as ANN\u27s input parameters, and porosity is the desired output. Compared with results from the SVM model with a single kernel function, mixed kernel function based SVM model provide more accurate porosity prediction values.;Base on the well log analysis, four reservoir subunits within a marine-dominated estuarine depositional system are defined: barrier sand, central bay shale, tidal channels and fluvial channel subunits. A 3-D geological model, which is used to estimate theoretical CO2 sequestration capacity, is constructed with the integration of core data, wireline log data and geological background knowledge. Depending on the proposed 3-D geological model, the best regions for coupled CCUS-EOR are located in southern portions of the field, and the estimated CO2 theoretical storage capacity for Jacksonburg-Stringtown oil field vary between 24 to 383 million metric tons. The estimation results of CO2 sequestration and EOR potential indicate that the Jacksonburg-Stringtown oilfield has significant potential for CO2 storage and value-added EOR

Embedded Applications of MS-PSO-BP on Wind/Storage Power Forecasting

Higher proportion wind power penetration has great impact on grid operation and dispatching, intelligent hybrid algorithm is proposed to cope with inaccurate schedule forecast. Firstly, hybrid algorithm of MS-PSO-BP (Mathematical Statistics, Particle Swarm Optimization, Back Propagation neural network) is proposed to improve the wind power system prediction accuracy. MS is used to optimize artificial neural network training sample, PSO-BP (particle swarm combined with back propagation neural network) is employed on prediction error dynamic revision. From the angle of root mean square error (RMSE), the mean absolute error (MAE) and convergence rate, analysis and comparison of several intelligent algorithms (BP, RBP, PSO-BP, MS-BP, MS-RBP, MS-PSO-BP) are done to verify the availability of the proposed prediction method. Further, due to the physical function of energy storage in improving accuracy of schedule pre-fabrication, a mathematical statistical method is proposed to determine the optimal capacity of the storage batteries in power forecasting based on the historical statistical data of wind farm. Algorithm feasibility is validated by application of experiment simulation and comparative analysis

A Review on Optimizing Radial Basis Function Neural Network using Nature Inspired Algorithm

Radial Basis Function (RBF) is a type of feed forward neural network .This function can be applied to interpolation, chaotic time-series modeling, control engineering, image restoration, data fusion etc. In RBF network, parameters of basis functions (such as width, the position and number of centers) in the nonlinear hidden layer have great influence on the performance of the network. Common RBF training algorithms cannot possibly find the global optima of nonlinear parameters in the hidden layer, and often have too many hidden units to reach certain approximation abilities, which will lead to too large a scale for the network and decline of generalization ability. Also, RBF neural network has the advantages of adaptive and self-learning ability, but it is difficult to determine the number of hidden layer neurons, and the weights learning ability from hidden layer to the output layer is low; these deficiencies easily lead to decreasing learning ability and recognition precision. Secondly, the Swarm Intelligence Algorithms are (Meta-Heuristic) development Algorithms, which attracted much attention and appeared its ability in the last ten years within many applications such as data mining, scheduling, improve the performance of artificial neural networks (ANN) and classification. So, in this paper the work of Artificial Bee Colony (ABC), Genetic algorithm(GA), Particle swarm optimization(PSO) and Bat algorithm(BA) have been reviewed, which optimized the RBF neural network in their own terms

Dynamic Quality Monitoring System to Assess the Quality of Asphalt Concrete Pavement

With the rapid development of new technologies, such as big data, the Internet of Things (IoT) and intelligent sensing, the traditional asphalt pavement construction quality evaluation method has been unable to meet the needs of road digital construction. At the same time, the development of such technologies enables a new management system for asphalt pavement construction. In this study, firstly, the dynamic quality monitoring system of asphalt concrete pavement is established by adopting the BeiDou Navigation Satellite System, intelligent sensing, the IoT and 5G technology. This allows key technical indicators to be collected and transmitted for the whole process of asphalt mixture, which includes the mixing plant, transport vehicle, paving and compaction. Secondly, combined with AHP and the entropy weight (EW) method, the index combination weight is calculated. The comprehensive index for the pavement digital construction quality index (PCQ) is proposed to reflect the impact of monitoring indicators on pavement quality. An expert decision-making model is formed by using the improved particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm coupled with radial basis function neural network (RBF). Finally, the digital monitoring index and pavement performance index are connected to establish a full-time and multi-dimensional digital construction quality evaluation model. This study is verified by a database created from the digital monitoring data of pavement construction collected from a highway construction project. The system proposed in this study can accurately reflect the quality of pavement digital construction and solve the lag problem existing in the feedback of construction site