An Integrated Assessment Framework for Water Resources Management: A DSS Tool and a Pilot Study Application

Decision making for the management of water resources is a complex and difficult task. This is due to the complex socio-economic system that involves a large number of interest groups pursuing multiple and conflicting objectives, within an often intricate legislative framework. Several Decision Support Systems have been developed but very few have indeed proved to be effective and truly operational. MULINO (Multisectoral, Integrated and Operational Decision Support System for Sustainable Use of Water Resources at the Catchment Scale) is a project funded under the Fifth Framework Programme of the European Research and the key action line dedicated to operational management schemes and decision support system for sustainable use of water resources. The MULINO DSS (mDSS) integrates hydrological models with multi-criteria decision methods and adopts the DPSIR (Driving Force – Pressure – State – Impact – Response) framework developed by the European Environment Agency. The DPSIR was converted from a static reporting scheme into a dynamic framework for integrated assessment modelling (IAM) and multi-criteria evaluation procedures. This paper presents the methodological framework and the intermediate results of the mDSS tool through its application in a pilot study area located in the Watershed of the Lagoon of Venice.Integrated water resources management, Spatial decision-making, Decision support system, Catchment, Environmental modelling

The value of indirect ties in citation networks:SNA analysis with OWA operator weights

This paper seeks to advance the theory and practice of the dynamics of complex networks in relation to direct and indirect citations. It applies social network analysis (SNA) and the ordered weighted averaging operator (OWA) to study a patent citations network. So far the SNA studies investigating long chains of patents citations have rarely been undertaken and the importance of a node in a network has been associated mostly with its number of direct ties. In this research OWA is used to analyse complex networks, assess the role of indirect ties, and provide guidance to reduce complexity for decision makers and analysts. An empirical example of a set of European patents published in 2000 in the renewable energy industry is provided to show the usefulness of the proposed approach for the preference ranking of patent citations

Data-Driven Copy-Paste Imputation for Energy Time Series

A cornerstone of the worldwide transition to smart grids are smart meters. Smart meters typically collect and provide energy time series that are vital for various applications, such as grid simulations, fault-detection, load forecasting, load analysis, and load management. Unfortunately, these time series are often characterized by missing values that must be handled before the data can be used. A common approach to handle missing values in time series is imputation. However, existing imputation methods are designed for power time series and do not take into account the total energy of gaps, resulting in jumps or constant shifts when imputing energy time series. In order to overcome these issues, the present paper introduces the new Copy-Paste Imputation (CPI) method for energy time series. The CPI method copies data blocks with similar characteristics and pastes them into gaps of the time series while preserving the total energy of each gap. The new method is evaluated on a real-world dataset that contains six shares of artificially inserted missing values between 1 and 30%. It outperforms the three benchmark imputation methods selected for comparison. The comparison furthermore shows that the CPI method uses matching patterns and preserves the total energy of each gap while requiring only a moderate run-time

Architecture value mapping: using fuzzy cognitive maps as a reasoning mechanism for multi-criteria conceptual design evaluation

The conceptual design phase is the most critical phase in the systems engineering life cycle. The design concept chosen during this phase determines the structure and behavior of the system, and consequently, its ability to fulfill its intended function. A good conceptual design is the first step in the development of a successful artifact. However, decision-making during conceptual design is inherently challenging and often unreliable. The conceptual design phase is marked by an ambiguous and imprecise set of requirements, and ill-defined system boundaries. A lack of usable data for design evaluation makes the problem worse. In order to assess a system accurately, it is necessary to capture the relationships between its physical attributes and the stakeholders\u27 value objectives. This research presents a novel conceptual architecture evaluation approach that utilizes attribute-value networks, designated as \u27Architecture Value Maps\u27, to replicate the decision makers\u27 cogitative processes. Ambiguity in the system\u27s overall objectives is reduced hierarchically to reveal a network of criteria that range from the abstract value measures to the design-specific performance measures. A symbolic representation scheme, the 2-Tuple Linguistic Representation is used to integrate different types of information into a common computational format, and Fuzzy Cognitive Maps are utilized as the reasoning engine to quantitatively evaluate potential design concepts. A Linguistic Ordered Weighted Average aggregation operator is used to rank the final alternatives based on the decision makers\u27 risk preferences. The proposed methodology provides systems architects with the capability to exploit the interrelationships between a system\u27s design attributes and the value that stakeholders associate with these attributes, in order to design robust, flexible, and affordable systems --Abstract, page iii

Enhancing the ELECTRE decision support method with semantic data

Prendre una decisió quan les opcions es defineixen mitjançant un conjunt divers de criteris no és fàcil. Aqueta tesi es centra en ampliar la metodologia ELECTRE, que és el mètode del tipus "outranking" més utilitzat. En aquesta tesi ens centrem en problemes de decisió que involucren informació no numèrica, tal com els criteris semàntics multivaluats, que poden prendre com a valors els conceptes d'una ontologia de domini determinada. Primer proposo una nova manera de manipular els criteris semàntics per evitar l'agregació de les puntuacions numèriques abans del procediment de classificació. Aquest mètode, anomenat ELECTRE-SEM, segueix els mateixos principis que el clàssic ELECTRE però, en aquest cas, els índexs de concordança i discordança es defineixen en termes de la comparació per parelles de les puntuacions que indiquen l'interès de l'usuari sobre diferents conceptes de l'ontologia. En segon lloc, proposo crear un perfil d'usuari semàntic mitjançant el emmagatzemant de puntuacions de preferències a l'ontologia. Es vincula una puntuació d'interès numèrica als conceptes més específics, això permet distingir millor les preferències de l'usuari, i també s'incorpora un procediment d'agregació per inferir les preferències de l'usuari considerant les relacions taxonòmiques entre conceptes. La metodologia proposada s'ha aplicat en dos casos d’estudi: l'avaluació de plantes de generació d'energia i la recomanació d'activitats turístiques a Tarragona.Tomar una decisión cuando las opciones se definen sobre un conjunto diverso de criterios no es fácil. Esta tesis se centra en ampliar la metodología ELECTRE, que es el método del tipo "outranking" más utilizado. En esta tesis nos centramos en problemas de decisión que involucren información no numérica, tal como los criterios semánticos multi-valuados, que pueden tomar como valores los conceptos de una ontología de dominio determinada. Primero propongo una nueva forma de manejar los criterios semánticos para evitar la agregación de puntuaciones numéricas antes del procedimiento de clasificación. Este método, llamado ELECTRE-SEM, sigue los mismos principios que el clásico ELECTRE, pero en este caso los índices de concordancia y discordancia se definen en términos de la comparación por pares de unas puntuaciones que indican el interés del usuario sobre distintos conceptos de la ontología. En segundo lugar, propongo crear un perfil de usuario semántico mediante el almacenamiento de puntuaciones de preferencias en la ontología. Se asocian puntuaciones numéricas a los conceptos más específicos, lo cual permite distinguir mejor las preferencias del usuario, y se incorpora un proceso de agregación para inferir las preferencias del usuario mediante las relaciones taxonómicas entre conceptos. La metodología propuesta ha sido aplicada en dos casos de estudio: la evaluación de las plantas de generación de energía y la recomendación de actividades turísticas en Tarragona.Reach a decision when options are defined on a set of diverse criteria is not easy. This thesis is focused on improving the methodology ELECTRE, which is the most used outranking-based method. In this dissertation, we focus on decision problems involving non-numerical information, such as multi-valued semantic criteria, which may take as values the concepts of a given domain ontology. First, I propose a new way of handling semantic criteria to avoid the aggregation of the numerical scores before the ranking procedure. This method, called ELECTRE-SEM, follows the same principles than the classic ELECTRE but in this case the concordance and discordance indices are defined in terms of the pairwise comparison of the interest scores. Second, I also propose to create a semantic user profile by storing preference scores into the ontology. The numerical interest score attached to the most specific concepts permits to distinguish better the preferences of the user, improving the quality of the decision by the incorporation of an aggregation methodology to infer the user's preferences by considering taxonomic relations between concepts. The proposed methodology has been applied in two case studies: the assessment of power generation plants and the recommendation of touristic activities in Tarragona

A hybrid performance evaluation approach for urban logistics using extended cross-efficiency with prospect theory and OWA operator

Urban logistics performance evaluation can provide reference for further improving its level. However, most performance evaluation for urban logistics premises that decision-makers (DMs) are completely rational, which may not conform to the actual situation. Therefore, this article aims to consider the DMs’ psychological factors in the performance evaluation of urban logistics. Specifically, the cross-efficiency evaluation (CEE) method with the DMs’ psychological factors is used to measure the urban logistics efficiency in the central area of Yangtze River Delta (YRD) urban agglomeration in China in 2019. The main contributions in this article are to propose a hybrid CEE method with prospect theory and ordered weighted average (OWA) operator for urban logistics industry and to expand the evaluation perspectives of urban logistics performance. The main conclusions are obtained: (1) The DMs’ optimism level can indeed affect the efficiency value and ranking of urban logistics. (2) The aggregation based on the OWA operator is fair and reasonable because it can make all self-evaluation efficiencies play the same role. (3) To make the efficiencies and rankings of urban logistics in the central area of the YRD have credibility and discrimination, the DMs’ optimism level range is best between 0.8 and 0.8177

Risk Analysis for Offshore Wind Turbines Using Aggregation Operators and VIKOR

In various engineering actions, potential hazards are reduced, calculated, or controlled using a variety of risk analysis methodologies. The FMEA, or Failure Mode and Effects Analysis, is a very efficient strategy that may be used in this situation. When evaluating safety concerns, failure modes\u27 likely causes and consequences are considered. Serious failures in the FMEA are identified using the Risk Priority Number (RPN). The RPN considers the effect of the probability of occurrence, probability of detection and severity by multiplying these three parameters. However, because of the formula\u27s various flaws, it is frequently criticized. In the current work, a hybrid approach using ViseKriterijumska Optimizacija I Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) and geometric averaging of ordered weights (OWGA) as an aggregation operator is used to assess risk for offshore wind turbines. While the OWGA technique is used to provide weight to risk indices, the VIKOR method is used to assess the relevance of failure modes of offshore wind turbine components. The method\u27s final findings show it solves the issues with the traditional RPN technique and produces more logical outcomes

Multi-Criteria Decision Making in software development:a systematic literature review

Abstract. Multiple Criteria Decision Making is a formal approach to assist decision makers to select the best solutions among multiple alternatives by assessing criteria which are relatively precise but generally conflicting. The utilization of MCDM are quite popular and common in software development process. In this study, a systematic literature review which includes creating review protocol, selecting primary study, making classification schema, extracting data and other relevant steps was conducted. The objective of this study are making a summary about the state-of-the-art of MCDM in software development process and identifying the MCDM methods and MCDM problems in software development by systematically structuring and analyzing the literature on those issues. A total of 56 primary studies were identified after the review, and 33 types of MCDM methods were extracted from those primary studies. Among them, AHP was defined as the most frequent used MCDM methods in software development process by ranking the number of primary studies which applied it in their studies, and Pareto optimization was ranked in the second place. Meanwhile, 33 types of software development problems were identified. Components selection, design concepts selection and performance evaluation became the three most frequent occurred problems which need to be resolved by MCDM methods. Most of those MCDM problems were found in software design phase. There were many limitations to affect the quality of this study; however, the strictly-followed procedures of SLR and mass data from thousands of literature can still ensure the validity of this study, and this study is also able to provide the references when decision makers want to select the appropriate technique to cope with the MCDM problems