A Model of Risk-Sensitive Route-Choice Behavior and the Potential Benefit of Route Guidance

In this paper, we present a simulation-based investigation of the potential benefit of route-guidance information in the context of risk-sensitive travelers. We set up a simple two-route scenario where travelers are repeatedly faced with risky route-choice decisions. The risk averseness of the travelers is implicitly controlled through a generic utility function. We vary both the travelers' sensitivity toward risk and the equipment fraction with route-guidance devices and show that the benefits of guided travelers increase with their sensitivity toward risk

Restructuring regulation of the rail industry for the public interest

Throughout the world, the rail industry historically has been one of the most extensively regulated of all sectors. Price, entry, exit, financial structure, accounting methods, vertical relations, and operating rules have all been subject to some form of government control. The public utility paradigm of government regulation has been applied on the assumption that the economic characteristics of the rail industry preclude competitive organization or the need for market responsiveness. In the past three decades, however, policymakers and economists have become increasingly critical of traditional regulation of the rail industry. It is generally accepted that in markets where rail carriers seek to meet demand, there is often effective competition, and that government restrictions on the structure and conduct of firms in this industry impose considerable costs on society. Misguided regulatory policies have been blamed for the misallocation of freight traffic among competing modes of transport, excess capacity, excessive operating costs, and poor investment decisions. Regulatory controls have also shouldered much of the blame for the poor financial condition of railroads, the deterioration of rail plant, the suppression and delay of cost-reducing innovations, and the mediocre quality of rail service. The authors suggest principles for restructuring railroad regulation - indeed, for restructuring the orientation of railroad entries - for the sake of public interest. Much can be learned, they contend, from applying the principles of industrial organization to analysis of the rail industry. To assess the implications of policies aimed at rate regulation or infrastructure, it is essential to understand the nature of technology, costs, and demand in the rail industry. Government's role in relation to market behavior should be based explicitly on the economic and technological realities of the railroad marketplace. The authors say that restructuring along the lines they suggest - putting more emphasis on marketing effectiveness - will result in a more profitable railway with a better chance of covering its costs for commercial services. Changing the basis for noncommercial services as they suggest will make those services more effective at fulfilling public policy objectives, will eliminate an insuperable drain on revenues that condemns rails to inadequate investment, and will eliminate cross-subsidies that make it difficult for rails to compete against other modes of transport.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Decentralization,Enterprise Development&Reform,Banks&Banking Reform,Economic Theory&Research,Environmental Economics&Policies,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets

e-Sanctuary: open multi-physics framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuation

The number of evacuees worldwide during wildfire keep rising, year after year. Fire evacuations at the wildland-urban interfaces (WUI) pose a serious challenge to fire and emergency services and are a global issue affecting thousands of communities around the world. But to date, there is a lack of comprehensive tools able to inform, train or aid the evacuation response and the decision making in case of wildfire. The present work describes a novel framework for modelling wildfire urban evacuations. The framework is based on multi-physics simulations that can quantify the evacuation performance. The work argues that an integrated approached requires considering and integrating all three important components of WUI evacuation, namely: fire spread, pedestrian movement, and traffic movement. The report includes a systematic review of each model component, and the key features needed for the integration into a comprehensive toolkit

Motivators and Preferences of Route Diversion During Roadway Incidents

When confronted with congestion and delay, drivers often divert their route. Depending on factors like purpose, urgency, destination, route alternatives, type of disruption, and mode options, common diversionary options can range from changing departure time, route, and mode to canceling a trip altogether. One of the foundational building blocks of travel forecasting is traffic assignment, which is used to distribute trips over a network using complex algorithms to aggregately represent the desire of drivers to minimize travel time. While these assignment models are backed by decades of research and observational experience, they are also limited by the fact that they do not account for the infinite number of factors and conditions that influence the routing of individual drivers. As the ability of transportation agencies to detect incidents and inform drivers of conditions has improved, there is increasing interest in knowing if drivers will divert and why. This thesis describes results of research using marketing-based survey techniques to evaluate driver diversionary behavior during roadway incidents. The survey was used to identify and assess diversionary choice-making based on a) travel behaviors and habits, b) under routine and adverse conditions, c) for different incidents and route options; and d) under varied guidance information available to them. Among the broad findings of the study that were consistent with prior research was the general preference of drivers to seek alternate routes around congestion and the importance they place on travel time as their primary motivator. Interestingly, younger males showed the lowest level of influence from guidance information, and route familiarity had a lower influence on diversionary routing among all groups, suggesting a higher level of trust and reliance in real-time mobile routing guidance than was originally anticipated in the beginning of the study. Another interesting finding, not seen in prior research, was the high importance placed on route safety and the time of day, particularly for female drivers. While the study was not able to address why, fundamentally such relationships exist, these findings can be used to improve the predictive accuracy of trip routing and assignment forecasts, particularly under disrupted network conditions

US Highway Privatization and Heterogeneous Preferences

Abstract: We assess the welfare effects of highway privatization accounting for government’s behavior in setting the sale price, firms’ strategic behavior in setting tolls in various competitive environments, and motorists’ heterogeneous preferences for speedy and reliable travel. We conclude motorists can benefit from privatization if they are able to negotiate aggressively with a private provider to obtain tolls and service that align with their varying preferences. Surprisingly, motorists are likely to be better off negotiating with a monopolist than with duopoly providers or under public-private competition. Toll regulation may be counterproductive because it would treat motorists as homogeneous. Revised June 2009.Security Breach Costs; Financial Distress; Insurance; Resource Allocation.

Travel information as an instrument to change cardrivers’ travel choices: a literature review

This paper aims to provide insights that help transport academics and policy makers appreciate the potentials and limitations of information provision as a means to changing car-drivers’ travel choices. The focus is on a modal shift from private car to public transport and changes in car-drivers’ choices for departure times and routes towards a more even distribution of traffic within the available road network. These insights are gained through a review of more than 15 years of literature concerning the use and effects of travel information among car-drivers. Based on the performed review, a number of generic, integrative insights are derived, including the following: it appears that our expectations with respect to the effects of information provision on travel choices in general may be mildly optimistic, particularly for behavioural changes not involving changes in mode-choice. In the longer term, the effects of information provision, when presented to travelers in suitable formats, are likely to be somewhat stronger than the short term effects, due to learning dynamics

Valuation of public investment to support bicycling (FV-09)

In this paper we develop a framework to value public investments with the purpose of increasing bicycling that explicitly accounts internal costs of bicycling, which are typically neglected in current established approaches that value bicycle spending by means of gross health benefits alone, as are inframarginal benefits to existing cyclists. By monetizing internal costs independent of health benefits, we can assess the degree of internalization of private benefits and/or the internalization of external benefits such as environmental improvements due to altruistic preferences by cyclists. Our framework further conceptualizes the complementarity between “hard” (investments in infrastructure) and “soft” measures (informational campaigns) in bicycle policy. Finally, we propose an empirical method for identifying internal costs using a latent variable approach and apply it to eight Swiss cities. Our results imply that Swiss cyclists internalize more than mortality-based benefits. However, because data for some important bicycle mode choice determinants are not available, our results cannot inform policy directly at the current stage. Instead, the contributions of our paper are the development of an economically consistent framework to value public bicycle investments and the identification of crucial data needs for the development of comprehensive assessments informing bicycle policy decisions

Opportunities for improving animal welfare in rodent models of epilepsy and seizures

Animal models of epilepsy and seizures, mostly involving mice and rats, are used to understand the pathophysiology of the different forms of epilepsy and their comorbidities, to identify biomarkers, and to discover new antiepileptic drugs and treatments for comorbidities. Such models represent an important area for application of the 3Rs (replacement, reduction and refinement of animal use). This report provides background information and recommendations aimed at minimising pain, suffering and distress in rodent models of epilepsy and seizures in order to improve animal welfare and optimise the quality of studies in this area. The report includes practical guidance on principles of choosing a model, induction procedures, in vivo recordings, perioperative care, welfare assessment, humane endpoints, social housing, environmental enrichment, reporting of studies and data sharing. In addition, some model-specific welfare considerations are discussed, and data gaps and areas for further research are identified. The guidance is based upon a systematic review of the scientific literature, survey of the international epilepsy research community, consultation with veterinarians and animal care and welfare officers, and the expert opinion and practical experience of the members of a Working Group convened by the United Kingdom's National Centre for the Replacement, Refinement and Reduction of Animals in Research (NC3Rs)

Experiments in Strategic Level Driver Behavior

https://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/154110/1/underwood1990b.pd