Strong, Bold, and Kind: Self-Control and Cooperation in Social Dilemmas

We develop a model relating self-control, risk preferences and conflict identification to cooperation patterns in social dilemmas. We subject our model to data from an experimental public goods game and a risk experiment, and we measure conflict identification and self-control. As predicted, we find a robust association between self-control and higher levels of cooperation, and the association is weaker for more risk-averse individuals. Free riders differ from other contributor types only in their tendency not to have identified a self-control conflict in the first place. Our model accounts for the data at least as well as do other models

A Change Support Model for Distributed Collaborative Work

Distributed collaborative software development tends to make artifacts and decisions inconsistent and uncertain. We try to solve this problem by providing an information repository to reflect the state of works precisely, by managing the states of artifacts/products made through collaborative work, and the states of decisions made through communications. In this paper, we propose models and a tool to construct the artifact-related part of the information repository, and explain the way to use the repository to resolve inconsistencies caused by concurrent changes of artifacts. We first show the model and the tool to generate the dependency relationships among UML model elements as content of the information repository. Next, we present the model and the method to generate change support workflows from the information repository. These workflows give us the way to efficiently modify the change-related artifacts for each change request. Finally, we define inconsistency patterns that enable us to be aware of the possibility of inconsistency occurrences. By combining this mechanism with version control systems, we can make changes safely. Our models and tool are useful in the maintenance phase to perform changes safely and efficiently.Comment: 10 pages, 13 figures, 4 table

Managing the trade-off implications of global supply

The cost versus response trade-off is a growing logistics issue due to many markets being increasingly characterized by demand uncertainty and shorter product life cycles. This is exacerbated further with supply increasingly moving to low cost global sources. However, the poor response implications of global supply are often not addressed or even acknowledged when undertaking such decisions. Consequently, various practical approaches to minimising, postponing or otherwise managing the impact of the demand uncertainty are often only adopted retrospectively. Even though such generic solutions are documented through case examples we lack effective tools and concepts to support the proactive identification and resolution of such trade-offs. This paper reports on case-based theory building research, involving three cases from the UK and USA used in developing a conceptual model with associated tools, in support of such a process

Integrating multiple criteria decision analysis in participatory forest planning

Forest planning in a participatory context often involves multiple stakeholders with conflicting interests. A promising approach for handling these complex situations is to integrate participatory planning and multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA). The objective of this paper is to analyze strengths and weaknesses of such an integrated approach, focusing on how the use of MCDA has influenced the participatory process. The paper outlines a model for a participatory MCDA process with five steps: stakeholder analysis, structuring of the decision problem, generation of alternatives, elicitation of preferences, and ranking of alternatives. This model was applied in a case study of a planning process for the urban forest in Lycksele, Sweden. In interviews with stakeholders, criteria for four different social groups were identified. Stakeholders also identified specific areas important to them and explained what activities the areas were used for and the forest management they wished for there. Existing forest data were combined with information from interviews to create a map in which the urban forest was divided into zones of different management classes. Three alternative strategic forest plans were produced based on the zonal map. The stakeholders stated their preferences individually by the Analytic Hierarchy Process in inquiry forms and a ranking of alternatives and consistency ratios were determined for each stakeholder. Rankings of alternatives were aggregated; first, for each social group using the arithmetic mean, and then an overall aggregated ranking was calculated from the group rankings using the weighted arithmetic mean. The participatory MCDA process in Lycksele is assessed against five social goals: incorporating public values into decisions, improving the substantive quality of decisions, resolving conflict among competing interests, building trust in institutions, and educating and informing the public. The results and assessment of the case study support the integration of participatory planning and MCDA as a viable option for handling complex forest-management situations. Key issues related to the MCDA methodology that need to be explored further were identified: 1) The handling of place-specific criteria, 2) development of alternatives, 3) the aggregation of individual preferences into a common preference, and 4) application and evaluation of the integrated approach in real case studies

The CFSP in synergetic theorising: Explaining the CFSP via a multi-causal and muilti-level analytical model. Jean Monnet/Robert Schuman Paper Series Vol. 8, No. 7, May 2008.

Usually, theoretical approaches and/or analytical models used in the study of the European Union’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) are build on 'unicausal influences' and on just one 'level of analysis'. No doubt, such perspectives are parsimonious and elegant in their character. However, they exclude important elements in the CFSP's existence and development. By doing so, they are narrow in their analytical scope. The conclusion is that the CFSP is a complex object of analysis, requiring complex analytical models. This paper offers a new, multi-causal and multi-level framework based on three integration theories each for one relevant level of analysis. The model, so goes the argument, can account for significant factors that influence the institutional development of the CFSP. By this example, complex analytical frameworks, as the paper argues, are necessary both in order to better manage the examinations of complex subject matters and in order to fully explain their institutional developments

Modeling Strategic Decisions in the Formation of the Early Neo-Assyrian Empire

Understanding patterns of conflict and pathways in which political history became established is critical to understanding how large states and empires ultimately develop and come to rule given regions and influence subsequent events. We employ a spatiotemporal Cox regression model to investigate possible causes as to why regions were attacked by the Neo-Assyrian (912-608 BCE) state. The model helps to explain how strategic benefits and costs lead to likely pathways of conflict and imperialism based on elite strategic decision-making. We apply this model to the early 9th century BCE, a time when historical texts allow us to trace yearly campaigns in specific regions, to understand how the Neo-Assyrian state began to re-emerge as a major political player, eventually going on to dominate much of the Near East and starting a process of imperialism that shaped the wider region for many centuries even after the fall of this state. The model demonstrates why specific locations become regions of conflict in given campaigns, emphasizing a degree of consistency with which choices were made by invading forces with respect to a number of factors. We find that elevation and population density deter Assyrian invasions. Moreover, costs were found to be more of a clear motivator for Assyrian invasions, with distance constraints being a significant driver in determining where to campaign. These outputs suggest that Assyria was mainly interested in attacking its weakest, based on population and/or organization, and nearest rivals as it began to expand. Results not only help to address the emergence of this empire, but enable a generalized understanding of how benefits and costs to conflict can lead to imperialism and pathways to political outcomes that can have major social relevance

Simulating the Impact of Traffic Calming Strategies

This study assessed the impact of traffic calming measures to the speed, travel times and capacity of residential roadways. The study focused on two types of speed tables, speed humps and a raised crosswalk. A moving test vehicle equipped with GPS receivers that allowed calculation of speeds and determination of speed profiles at 1s intervals were used. Multi-regime model was used to provide the best fit using steady state equations; hence the corresponding speed-flow relationships were established for different calming scenarios. It was found that capacities of residential roadway segments due to presence of calming features ranged from 640 to 730 vph. However, the capacity varied with the spacing of the calming features in which spacing speed tables at 1050 ft apart caused a 23% reduction in capacity while 350-ft spacing reduced capacity by 32%. Analysis showed a linear decrease of capacity of approximately 20 vphpl, 37 vphpl and 34 vphpl when 17 ft wide speed tables were spaced at 350 ft, 700 ft, and 1050 ft apart respectively. For speed hump calming features, spacing humps at 350 ft reduced capacity by about 33% while a 700 ft spacing reduced capacity by 30%. The study concludes that speed tables are slightly better than speed humps in terms of preserving the roadway capacity. Also, traffic calming measures significantly reduce the speeds of vehicles, and it is best to keep spacing of 630 ft or less to achieve desirable crossing speeds of less or equal to 15 mph especially in a street with schools nearby. A microscopic simulation model was developed to replicate the driving behavior of traffic on urban road diets roads to analyze the influence of bus stops on traffic flow and safety. The impacts of safety were assessed using surrogate measures of safety (SSAM). The study found that presence of a bus stops for 10, 20 and 30 s dwell times have almost 9.5%, 12%, and 20% effect on traffic speed reductions when 300 veh/hr flow is considered. A comparison of reduction in speed of traffic on an 11 ft wide road lane of a road diet due to curbside stops and bus bays for a mean of 30s with a standard deviation of 5s dwell time case was conducted. Results showed that a bus stop bay with the stated bus dwell time causes an approximate 8% speed reduction to traffic at a flow level of about 1400 vph. Analysis of the trajectories from bust stop locations showed that at 0, 25, 50, 75, 100, 125, 150, and 175 feet from the intersection the number of conflicts is affected by the presence and location of a curbside stop on a segment with a road diet

GTA: Groupware task analysis Modeling complexity

The task analysis methods discussed in this presentation stem from Human-Computer Interaction (HCI) and Ethnography (as applied for the design of Computer Supported Cooperative Work CSCW), different disciplines that often are considered conflicting approaches when applied to the same design problems. Both approaches have their strength and weakness, and an integration of them does add value to the early stages of design of cooperation technology. In order to develop an integrated method for groupware task analysis (GTA) a conceptual framework is presented that allows a systematic perspective on complex work phenomena. The framework features a triple focus, considering (a) people, (b) work, and (c) the situation. Integrating various task-modeling approaches requires vehicles for making design information explicit, for which an object oriented formalism will be suggested. GTA consists of a method and framework that have been developed during practical design exercises. Examples from some of these cases will illustrate our approach