Transportation Management in a Distributed Logistic Consumption System Under Uncertainty Conditions

The problem of supply management in the supplier-to-consumer logistics transport system has been formed and solved. The novelty of the formulation of the problem consists in the integrated accounting of costs in the logistic system, which takes into account at the same time the cost of transporting products from suppliers to consumers, as well as the costs for each of the consumers to store the unsold product and losses due to possible shortages. The resulting optimization problem is no longer a standard linear programming problem. In addition, the work assumes that the solution of the problem should be sought taking into account the fact that the initial data of the problem are not deterministic. The analysis of traditional methods of describing the uncertainty of the source data. It is concluded that, given the rapidly changing conditions for the implementation of the delivery process in a distributed supplier-to-consumer system, it is advisable to move from a theoretical probability representation of the source data to their description in terms of fuzzy mathematics. At the same time, in particular, the fuzzy values of the demand for the delivered product for each consumer are determined by their membership functions.Distribution of supplies in the system is described by solving a mathematical programming problem with a nonlinear objective function and a set of linear constraints of the transport type. In forming the criterion, a technology is used to transform the membership functions of fuzzy parameters of the problem to its theoretical probabilistic counterparts – density distribution of demand values. The task is reduced to finding for each consumer the value of the ordered product, minimizing the average total cost of storing the unrealized product and losses from the deficit. The initial problem is reduced to solving a set of integral equations solved, in general, numerically. It is shown that in particular, important for practice, particular cases, this solution is achieved analytically.The paper states the insufficient adequacy of the traditionally used mathematical models for describing fuzzy parameters of the problem, in particular, the demand. Statistical processing of real data on demand shows that the parameters of the membership functions of the corresponding fuzzy numbers are themselves fuzzy numbers. Acceptable mathematical models of the corresponding fuzzy numbers are formulated in terms of bifuzzy mathematics. The relations describing the membership functions of the bifuzzy numbers are given. A formula is obtained for calculating the total losses to storage and from the deficit, taking into account the bifuzzy of demand. In this case, the initial task is reduced to finding the distribution of supplies, at which the maximum value of the total losses does not exceed the permissible value

Decizii economice in conditii de incertitudine

Uncertainty means partially or totally knowing the probabilities to accomplish an action’s potential results.Decision, uncertainty conditions, utility

New approach to the design of mining operations

Analysis of the production development scenarios is proposed for strategic activity planning; criteria to make decisions under the uncertainty conditions as well as decision-making trees for day-to-day management are proposed to determine balanced production level

A Model for Determining Consumption and Social Assistance Demand in Uncertainty Conditions

This article focuses on the relation between demographic impact and social insurance and consists of two distinct yet closely related sections. The first section introduces a three overlapping generation model which tries to determine the ageing effects on the individual consumption and saving decisions in a partial equilibrium approach. The second section, instead, aims at providing a theory on the need to set up an ad hoc non self-sufficiency fund. It is shown that this mandatory and universal social insurance can guarantee a relatively higher ex-post individual welfare level when the individual fails to get insured and makes his decisions in uncertainty conditions, that is, reacting to risks in an imperfect way through the setting up of a precautionary saving fund.

MARKOV MODEL: Analyzing its behavior for Uncertainty conditions

Markov model is used to analyze the dynamic behavior of the system in predicting the next state with the previous state. The process of attempting to guess the next character reveals information about the password strategy. In this paper, we give fuzzy inferences about the guessing passwords, by examining with the previous state and computing the possible outcomes of probability of each character. For some problems there cannot be complete solutions. For such problems Fuzzy inferences allow us to evaluate sub expressions. In the present paper, we discuss how to trace out some uncertainty conditions and analyze their behavior using fuzzy inference system and finally test the system for finding steady state behavior in guessing the characters in the password. Keywords: Markov model, Fuzzy sets, Transition matrix, Membership functions, Fuzzy Logi

Culinary SME's: Entrepreneurial Education Skill in Uncertainty Conditions

This study aims to determine of entrepreneurial skills of culinary SMEs in Indonesia, from an entrepreneurial perspective. The research sample of 136 entrepreneurs was determined from the Slovin formula. The collecting data was a simple random sampling technique. Entrepreneurship education skills prove to be a powerful tool for analyzing entrepreneurial skills in culinary SMEs. The results showed that there is an empirical gap between the development of culinary SMEs through education and skills training that has been carried out by various parties with the entrepreneurial skills needed by entrepreneurs in facing situations of uncertainty. The most gap is not fulfilled managerial skills and leadership skills. The most gap is unfulfilled managerial and leadership skills. Managerial skill need is an organizational structure, if needed organizational structure was quickly changed.  Leadership skills need is to make quick decisions under pressure and have a business vision. Our study offers a series of recommendations for policymakers and researchers. DOI: 10.7176/JEP/11-24-03 Publication date: December 31st 202

Monetary policy as a source of uncertainty

This paper proposes a model in which control variations induce an increase in the uncertainty of the system. The aim of our paper is to provide a stochastic theoretical model that can be used to explain under which uncertainty conditions monetary policy rules should be less or more aggressive, or, simply, applied or not.

Supply Chain Management under Uncertainty Conditions on Automotive Industry

La incertidumbre es inherente a los procesos logísticos y su estudio es un aspecto de la mayor importancia debido a su impacto en el desempeño de toda la cadena de suministro. La teoría de cadenas de Markov permite describir matemáticamente la incertidumbre desde una perspectiva global que represente la interrelación cruzada existente entre varias actividades lo cual es una importante herramienta de apoyo para la toma de decisiones.Uncertainty is inherent in logistics processes and their study is of the utmost importance because of its impact on the performance of the entire supply chain. Applying Theory of Markov Chains, allows mathematically describe the uncertainty from a global perspective representing the cross-relationship among several logistics activities which is an important tool for decision making in Supply Chain Management

The Prediction of Inflation in Romania in Uncertainty Conditions

Based on data of inflation forecasts provided quarterly by the National Bank of Romania, forecast intervals were built using the method of historical forecast errors. Forecast intervals were built considering that the forecast error series is normally distributed of zero mean and standard deviation equal to the RMSE (root mean squared error) corresponding to historical forecast errors.  We introduced as a measure of economic state the indicator– relative variance of the phenomenon at a specific time in relation with the variance on the entire time horizon. For Romania, when inflation rates follows an AR (1), we have improved the technique of building forecast intervals taking into account the state of the economy in each period for which data were recorded. We consider really necessary the building of forecasts intervals, in order to have a measure of predictions uncertainty

Planning robot formations with fast marching square including uncertainty conditions

This paper presents a novel algorithm to solve the robot formation path planning problem working under uncertainty conditions such as errors the in robot's positions, errors when sensing obstacles or walls, etc. The proposed approach provides a solution based on a leader-followers architecture (real or virtual leaders) with a prescribed formation geometry that adapts dynamically to the environment. The algorithm described herein is able to provide safe, collision-free paths, avoiding obstacles and deforming the geometry of the formation when required by environmental conditions (e.g. narrow passages). To obtain a better approach to the problem of robot formation path planning the algorithm proposed includes uncertainties in obstacles' and robots' positions. The algorithm applies the Fast Marching Square (FM2) method to the path planning of mobile robot formations, which has been proved to work quickly and efficiently. The FM2 method is a path planning method with no local minima that provides smooth and safe trajectories to the robots creating a time function based on the properties of the propagation of the electromagnetic waves and depending on the environment conditions. This method allows to easily include the uncertainty reducing the computational cost significantly. The results presented here show that the proposed algorithm allows the formation to react to both static and dynamic obstacles with an easily changeable behavior.This work is included in the project number DPI2010-17772 funded by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Innovation and has been supported by the CAM Project S2009/DPI-1559/ROBOCITY2030 II, developed by the research team RoboticsLab at the University Carlos III of Madrid.Publicad