Do harvest refuges buffer kangaroos against evolutionary responses to selective harvesting?

There is a wealth of literature documenting a directional change of body size in heavily harvested populations. Most of this work concentrates on aquatic systems, but terrestrial populations are equally at risk. This paper explores the capacity of harvest refuges to counteract potential effects of size-selective harvesting on the allele frequency,of populations. We constructed a stochastic, individual-based model parameterized with data on red kangaroos. Because we do not know which part of individual growth would change in the course of natural selection, we explored the effects of two alternative models of individual growth in which alleles affect either the growth rate or the maximum size. The model results show that size-selective harvesting can result in significantly smaller kangaroos for a given age when the entire population is subject to harvesting. In contrast, in scenarios that include dispersal from harvest refuges, the initial allele frequency remains virtually unchanged

Improving precision and reducing bias in biological surveys: estimating false-negative error rates

The use of presence/absence data in wildlife management and biological surveys is widespread. There is a growing interest in quantifying the sources of error associated with these data. We show that false-negative errors (failure to record a species when in fact it is present) can have a significant impact on statistical estimation of habitat models using simulated data. Then we introduce an extension of logistic modeling, the zero-inflated binomial (ZIB) model that permits the estimation of the rate of false-negative errors and the correction of estimates of the probability of occurrence for false-negative errors by using repeated. visits to the same site. Our simulations show that even relatively low rates of false negatives bias statistical estimates of habitat effects. The method with three repeated visits eliminates the bias, but estimates are relatively imprecise. Six repeated visits improve precision of estimates to levels comparable to that achieved with conventional statistics in the absence of false-negative errors In general, when error rates are less than or equal to50% greater efficiency is gained by adding more sites, whereas when error rates are >50% it is better to increase the number of repeated visits. We highlight the flexibility of the method with three case studies, clearly demonstrating the effect of false-negative errors for a range of commonly used survey methods

Time-lagged effects of weather on plant demography: drought and Astragalus scaphoides

Temperature and precipitation determine the conditions where plant species can occur. Despite their significance, to date, surprisingly few demographic field studies have considered the effects of abiotic drivers. This is problematic because anticipating the effect of global climate change on plant population viability requires understanding how weather variables affect population dynamics. One possible reason for omitting the effect of weather variables in demographic studies is the difficulty in detecting tight associations between vital rates and environmental drivers. In this paper, we applied Functional Linear Models (FLMs) to long-term demographic data of the perennial wildflower, Astragalus scaphoides, and explored sensitivity of the results to reduced amounts of data. We compared models of the effect of average temperature, total precipitation, or an integrated measure of drought intensity (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index, SPEI), on plant vital rates. We found that transitions to flowering and recruitment in year t were highest if winter/spring of year t was wet (positive effect of SPEI). Counterintuitively, if the preceding spring of year t - 1 was wet, flowering probabilities were decreased (negative effect of SPEI). Survival of vegetative plants from t - 1 to t was also negatively affected by wet weather in the spring of year t - 1 and, for large plants, even wet weather in the spring of t - 2 had a negative effect. We assessed the integrated effect of all vital rates on life history performance by fitting FLMs to the asymptotic growth rate, log(kt). Log(kt) was highest if dry conditions in year t - 1 were followed by wet conditions in the year t. Overall, the positive effects of wet years exceeded their negative effects, suggesting that increasing frequency of drought conditions would reduce population viability of A. scaphoides. The drought signal weakened when reducing the number of monitoring years. Substituting space for time did not recover the weather signal, probably because the weather variables varied little between sites. We detected the SPEI signal when the analysis included data from two sites monitored over 20 yr (2 X 20 observations), but not when analyzing data from four sites monitored over 10 yr (4 X 10 observations)

Modelling radiation-induced cell cycle delays

Ionizing radiation is known to delay the cell cycle progression. In particular after particle exposure significant delays have been observed and it has been shown that the extent of delay affects the expression of damage such as chromosome aberrations. Thus, to predict how cells respond to ionizing radiation and to derive reliable estimates of radiation risks, information about radiation-induced cell cycle perturbations is required. In the present study we describe and apply a method for retrieval of information about the time-course of all cell cycle phases from experimental data on the mitotic index only. We study the progression of mammalian cells through the cell cycle after exposure. The analysis reveals a prolonged block of damaged cells in the G2 phase. Furthermore, by performing an error analysis on simulated data valuable information for the design of experimental studies has been obtained. The analysis showed that the number of cells analyzed in an experimental sample should be at least 100 to obtain a relative error less than 20%.Comment: 19 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in Radiation and Environmental Biophysic

Using Cox's Proportional Hazard Models to Implement Optimal Strategies: An Example from Behavioural Ecology

Simple behavioural rules, or "rules of thumb", which lead to behaviour that closely approximates an optimal strategy, have generated a lot of recent interest in the field of foraging behaviour. In this paper, we derive rules of thumb from a stochastic simulation model in which the foragers behave optimally. We use a particular biological system: the patch leaving behaviour of a parasitoid. We simulate parasitoids whose patch leaving behaviour is determined by a stochastic dynamic programming (SDP) model, while allowing parasitoids to make mistakes in their estimation of host density when arriving in a patch. We use Cox's proportional hazards models to obtain statistical rules of thumb from the simulated behaviour. This represents the first use of a proportional hazard approximation to generate rules of thumb from a complex optimal strategy

Conserved Odorant-Binding Proteins from Aphids and Eavesdropping Predators

Background: The sesquiterpene (E)-ß-farnesene is the main component of the alarm pheromone system of various aphid species studied to date, including the English grain aphid, Sitobion avenae. Aphid natural enemies, such as the marmalade hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus and the multicolored Asian lady beetle Harmonia axyridis, eavesdrop on aphid chemical communication and utilize (E)-ß-farnesene as a kairomone to localize their immediate or offspring preys. These aphidpredator systems are important models to study how the olfactory systems of distant insect taxa process the same chemical signal. We postulated that odorant-binding proteins (OBPs), which are highly expressed in insect olfactory tissues and involved in the first step of odorant reception, have conserved regions involved in binding (E)-ß-farnesene. Methodology: We cloned OBP genes from the English grain aphid and two major predators of this aphid species. We then expressed these proteins and compare their binding affinities to the alarm pheromone/kairomone. By using a fluorescence reporter, we tested binding of (E)-ß-farnesene and other electrophysiologically and behaviorally active compounds, including a green leaf volatile attractant. Conclusion: We found that OBPs from disparate taxa of aphids and their predators are highly conserved proteins, with apparently no orthologue genes in other insect species. Properly folded, recombinant proteins from the English grain aphid, SaveOBP3, and the marmalade hoverfly, EbalOBP3, specifically bind (E)-ß-farnesene with apparent high affinity. For the firs

Inferring transient dynamics of human populations from matrix non-normality

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.In our increasingly unstable and unpredictable world, population dynamics rarely settle uniformly to long-term behaviour. However, projecting period-by-period through the preceding fluctuations is more data-intensive and analytically involved than evaluating at equilibrium. To efficiently model populations and best inform policy, we require pragmatic suggestions as to when it is necessary to incorporate short-term transient dynamics and their effect on eventual projected population size. To estimate this need for matrix population modelling, we adopt a linear algebraic quantity known as non-normality. Matrix non-normality is distinct from normality in the Gaussian sense, and indicates the amplificatory potential of the population projection matrix given a particular population vector. In this paper, we compare and contrast three well-regarded metrics of non-normality, which were calculated for over 1000 age-structured human population projection matrices from 42 European countries in the period 1960 to 2014. Non-normality increased over time, mirroring the indices of transient dynamics that peaked around the millennium. By standardising the matrices to focus on transient dynamics and not changes in the asymptotic growth rate, we show that the damping ratio is an uninformative predictor of whether a population is prone to transient booms or busts in its size. These analyses suggest that population ecology approaches to inferring transient dynamics have too often relied on suboptimal analytical tools focussed on an initial population vector rather than the capacity of the life cycle to amplify or dampen transient fluctuations. Finally, we introduce the engineering technique of pseudospectra analysis to population ecology, which, like matrix non-normality, provides a more complete description of the transient fluctuations than the damping ratio. Pseudospectra analysis could further support non-normality assessment to enable a greater understanding of when we might expect transient phases to impact eventual population dynamics.This work was funded by Wellcome Trust New Investigator 103780 to TE, who is also funded by NERC Fellowship NE/J018163/1. JB gratefully acknowledges the ESRC Centre for Population Change ES/K007394/1

Aphid and Plant Volatiles Induce Oviposition in an Aphidophagous Hoverfly

Episyrphus balteatus DeGeer (Diptera, Syrphidae) is an abundant and efficient aphid-specific predator. We tested the electroantennographic (EAG) response of this syrphid fly to the common aphid alarm pheromone, (E)-β-farnesene (EβF), and to several plant volatiles, including terpenoids (mono- and sesquiterpenes) and green leaf volatiles (C6 and C9 alcohols and aldehydes). Monoterpenes evoked significant EAG responses, whereas sesquiterpenes were inactive, except for the aphid alarm pheromone (EβF). The most pronounced antennal responses were elicited by six and nine carbon green leaf alcohols and aldehydes [i.e., (Z)-3-hexenol, (E)-2-hexenol, (E)-2-hexenal, and hexanal]. To investigate the behavioral activity of some of these EAG-active compounds, E. balteatus females were exposed to R-(+)-limonene (monoterpene), (Z)-3-hexenol (green leaf alcohol), and EβF (sesquiterpene, common aphid alarm pheromone). A single E. balteatus gravid female was exposed for 10 min to an aphid-free Vicia faba plant that was co-located with a semiochemical dispenser. Without additional semiochemical, hoverfly females were not attracted to this plant, and no oviposition was observed. The monoterpene R-(+)-limonene did not affect the females’ foraging behavior, whereas (Z)-3-hexenol and EβF increased the time of flight and acceptance of the host plant. Moreover, these two chemicals induced oviposition on aphid-free plants, suggesting that selection of the oviposition site by predatory hoverflies relies on the perception of a volatile blend composed of prey pheromone and typical plant green leaf volatiles