Linked indicator sets for addressing biodiversity loss

The target adopted by world leaders of significantly reducing the rate of biodiversity loss by 2010 was not met but this stimulated a new suite of biodiversity targets for 2020 adopted by the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) in October 2010. Indicators will be essential for monitoring progress towards these targets and the CBD will be defining a suite of relevant indicators, building on those developed for the 2010 target. Here we argue that explicitly linked sets of indicators offer a more useful framework than do individual indicators because the former are easier to understand, communicate and interpret to guide policy. A Response-Pressure-State-Benefit framework for structuring and linking indicators facilitates an understanding of the relationships between policy actions, anthropogenic threats, the status of biodiversity and the benefits that people derive from it. Such an approach is appropriate at global, regional, national and local scales but for many systems it is easier to demonstrate causal linkages and use them to aid decision making at national and local scales. We outline examples of linked indicator sets for humid tropical forests and marine fisheries as illustrations of the concept and conclude that much work remains to be done in developing both the indicators and the causal links between them

Quantifying full phenological event distributions reveals simultaneous advances, temporal stability and delays in spring and autumn migration timing in long-distance migratory birds

Acknowledgements We thank all Fair Isle Bird Observatory staff and volunteers for help with data collection and acknowledge the foresight of George Waterston and Ken Williamson in instigating the observatory and census methodology. We thank all current and previous directors of Fair Isle Bird Observatory Trust for their contributions, particularly Dave Okill and Mike Wood for their stalwart support for the long-term data collection and for the current analyses. Dawn Balmer and Ian Newton provided helpful guidance on manuscript drafts. We thank Ally Phillimore and two anonymous referees for helpful comments. This study would have been impossible without the Fair Isle community's invaluable support and patience over many decades, which is very gratefully acknowledged. WTSM and JMR designed and undertook analyses, wrote the paper and contributed to data collection and compilation, MB contributed to analysis and editing, all other authors oversaw and undertook data collection and compilation and contributed to editing.Peer reviewedPostprin

Spatiotemporal Variation in Avian Migration Phenology: Citizen Science Reveals Effects of Climate Change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3–6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing

Theory of Electronic Ferroelectricity

We present a theory of the linear and nonlinear optical characteristics of the insulating phase of the Falicov-Kimball model within the self-consistent mean-field approximation. The Coulomb attraction between the itinerant d-electrons and the localized f-holes gives rise to a built-in coherence between the d and f-states, which breaks the inversion symmetry of the underlying crystal, leading to: (1) electronic ferroelectricity, (2) ferroelectric resonance, and (3) a nonvanishing susceptibility for second-harmonic generation. As experimental tests of such a built-in coherence in mixed-valent compounds we propose measurements of the static dielectric constant, the microwave absorption spectrum, and the dynamic second-order susceptibility.Comment: 15 pages, 5 PostScript figures, submitted to Physical Review

The phenology of winter rye in Poland: an analysis of long-term experimental data

The study of the phenology of crops, although quite popular, has limitations, mainly because of frequent changes to crop varieties and management practices. Here, we present data on the phenology and yield of winter rye in western Poland collected between 1957 and 2012 from a long-term field experiment. Data were examined for trends through time and compared to climatological factors using regression analysis. Both annual air temperature and precipitation increased during the study period, equivalent to 2 °C and 186 mm, respectively, over the 52-year period for which met data were available. We detected significant delays in sowing date and recently in emergence, but significant advances were apparent in full flowering date equivalent to 4 days/decade. Yield and plant density experienced a step like change in 1986; yield increasing by ca. 70 % and plant density increasing by ca. 50 %, almost coinciding with a similar change in annual mean temperature, but most likely caused by a changed seed rate and use of herbicides. Future climate change is expected to have a greater impact on this crop, but farmers may be able to adapt to these changes by modifying water regimes, using new machinery and sowing new rye varieties

Does Global Warming Increase Establishment Rates of Invasive Alien Species? A Centurial Time Series Analysis

BACKGROUND: The establishment rate of invasive alien insect species has been increasing worldwide during the past century. This trend has been widely attributed to increased rates of international trade and associated species introductions, but rarely linked to environmental change. To better understand and manage the bioinvasion process, it is crucial to understand the relationship between global warming and establishment rate of invasive alien species, especially for poikilothermic invaders such as insects. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We present data that demonstrate a significant positive relationship between the change in average annual surface air temperature and the establishment rate of invasive alien insects in mainland China during 1900-2005. This relationship was modeled by regression analysis, and indicated that a 1 °C increase in average annual surface temperature in mainland China was associated with an increase in the establishment rate of invasive alien insects of about 0.5 species year⁻¹. The relationship between rising surface air temperature and increasing establishment rate remained significant even after accounting for increases in international trade during the period 1950-2005. Moreover, similar relationships were detected using additional data from the United Kingdom and the contiguous United States. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings suggest that the perceived increase in establishments of invasive alien insects can be explained only in part by an increase in introduction rate or propagule pressure. Besides increasing propagule pressure, global warming is another driver that could favor worldwide bioinvasions. Our study highlights the need to consider global warming when designing strategies and policies to deal with bioinvasions

Experimental study of dense pyroclastic density currents using sustained, gas-fluidized granular flows

© 2014, Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg. We present the results of laboratory experiments on the behaviour of sustained, dense granular flows in a horizontal flume, in which high-gas pore pressure was maintained throughout the flow duration by continuous injection of gas through the flume base. The flows were fed by a sustained (0.5–30 s) supply of fine (75 ± 15 μm) particles from a hopper; the falling particles impacted an impingement surface at concentrations of ~3 to 45 %, where they densified rapidly to generate horizontally moving, dense granular flows. When the gas supplied through the flume base was below the minimum fluidization velocity of the particles (i.e. aerated flow conditions), three flow phases were identified: (i) an initial dilute spray of particles travelling at 1–2 m s−1, followed by (ii) a dense granular flow travelling at 0.5–1 m s−1, then by (iii) sustained aggradation of the deposit by a prolonged succession of thin flow pulses. The maximum runout of the phase 2 flow was linearly dependent on the initial mass flux, and the frontal velocity had a square-root dependence on mass flux. The frontal propagation speed during phase 3 had a linear relationship with mass flux. The total mass of particles released had no significant control on either flow velocity or runout in any of the phases. High-frequency flow unsteadiness during phase 3 generated deposit architectures with progradational and retrogradational packages and multiple internal erosive contacts. When the gas supplied through the flume base was equal to the minimum fluidization velocity of the particles (i.e. fluidized flow conditions), the flows remained within phase 2 for their entire runout, no deposit formed and the particles ran off the end of the flume. Sustained granular flows differ significantly from instantaneous flows generated by lock-exchange mechanisms, in that the sustained flows generate (by prolonged progressive aggradation) deposits that are much thicker than the flowing layer of particles at any given moment. The experiments offer a first attempt to investigate the physics of the sustained pyroclastic flows that generate thick, voluminous ignimbrites

Pre-eruptive magmatic processes re-timed using a non-isothermal approach to magma chamber dynamics

Open Source PaperThis work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article’s Creative Commons license, unless indicated otherwise in the credit line; if the material is not included under the Creative Commons license, users will need to obtain permission from the license holder to reproduce the material. To view a copy of this license, visit http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. The attached file is the published version of the article

Post-depositional fracturing and subsidence of pumice flow deposits: Lascar Volcano, Chile

Unconsolidated pyroclastic flow deposits of the 1993 eruption of Lascar Volcano, Chile, have, with time, become increasingly dissected by a network of deeply penetrating fractures. The fracture network comprises orthogonal sets of decimeter-wide linear voids that form a pseudo-polygonal grid visible on the deposit surface. In this work, we combine shallow surface geophysical imaging tools with remote sensing observations and direct field measurements of the deposit to investigate these fractures and their underlying causal mechanisms. Based on ground penetrating radar images, the fractures are observed to have propagated to depths of up to 10 m. In addition, orbiting radar interferometry shows that deposit subsidence of up to 1 cm/year occurred between 1993 and 1996 with continued subsidence occurring at a slower rate thereafter. In situ measurements show that 1 m below the surface, the 1993 deposits remain 5°C to 15°C hotter, 18 years after emplacement, than adjacent deposits. Based on the observed subsidence as well as estimated cooling rates, the fractures are inferred to be the combined result of deaeration, thermal contraction, and sedimentary compaction in the months to years following deposition. Significant environmental factors, including regional earthquakes in 1995 and 2007, accelerated settling at punctuated moments in time. The spatially variable fracture pattern relates to surface slope and lithofacies variations as well as substrate lithology. Similar fractures have been reported in other ignimbrites but are generally exposed only in cross section and are often attributed to formation by external forces. Here we suggest that such interpretations should be invoked with caution, and deformation including post-emplacement subsidence and fracturing of loosely packed ash-rich deposits in the months to years postemplacement is a process inherent in the settling of pyroclastic material

Autism as a disorder of neural information processing: directions for research and targets for therapy

The broad variation in phenotypes and severities within autism spectrum disorders suggests the involvement of multiple predisposing factors, interacting in complex ways with normal developmental courses and gradients. Identification of these factors, and the common developmental path into which theyfeed, is hampered bythe large degrees of convergence from causal factors to altered brain development, and divergence from abnormal brain development into altered cognition and behaviour. Genetic, neurochemical, neuroimaging and behavioural findings on autism, as well as studies of normal development and of genetic syndromes that share symptoms with autism, offer hypotheses as to the nature of causal factors and their possible effects on the structure and dynamics of neural systems. Such alterations in neural properties may in turn perturb activity-dependent development, giving rise to a complex behavioural syndrome many steps removed from the root causes. Animal models based on genetic, neurochemical, neurophysiological, and behavioural manipulations offer the possibility of exploring these developmental processes in detail, as do human studies addressing endophenotypes beyond the diagnosis itself