The historical ozone trends simulated with the SOCOLv4 and their comparison with observations and reanalyses

There is evidence that the ozone layer has begun to recover owing to the ban on the production of halogenated ozone-depleting substances (hODS) accomplished by the Montreal Protocol and its amendments and adjustments (MPA). However, recent studies, while reporting an increase in tropospheric ozone from the anthropogenic NOx and CH4 and confirming the ozone recovery in the upper stratosphere from the effects of hODS, also indicate a continuing decline in the lower tropical and mid-latitudinal stratospheric ozone. While these are indications derived from observations, they are not reproduced by current global chemistry–climate models (CCMs), which show positive or near-zero trends for ozone in the lower stratosphere. This makes it difficult to robustly establish ozone evolution and has sparked debate about the ability of contemporary CCMs to simulate future ozone trends. We applied the new Earth system model (ESM) SOCOLv4 (SOlar Climate Ozone Links, version 4) to calculate long-term ozone trends between 1985–2018 and compare them with trends derived from the BAyeSian Integrated and Consolidated (BASIC) ozone composite and MERRA-2, ERA-5, and MSRv2 reanalyses. We designed the model experiment with a six-member ensemble to account for the uncertainty of the natural variability. The trend analysis is performed separately for the ozone depletion (1985–1997) and ozone recovery (1998–2018) phases of the ozone evolution. Within the 1998–2018 period, SOCOLv4 shows statistically significant positive ozone trends in the mesosphere, upper and middle stratosphere, and a steady increase in the tropospheric ozone. The SOCOLv4 results also suggest slightly negative trends in the extra-polar lower stratosphere, yet they barely agree with the BASIC ozone composite in terms of magnitude and statistical significance. However, in some realizations of the SOCOLv4 experiment, the pattern of ozone trends in the lower stratosphere resembles much of what is observed, suggesting that SOCOLv4 may be able to reproduce the observed trends in this region. Thus, the model results reveal marginally significant negative ozone changes in parts of the low-latitude lower stratosphere, which agrees in general with the negative tendencies extracted from the satellite data composite. Despite the slightly smaller significance and magnitude of the simulated ensemble mean, we confirm that modern CCMs such as SOCOLv4 are generally capable of simulating the observed ozone changes, justifying their use to project the future evolution of the ozone layer.</p

Interactions between diurnal winds and floodplain mosaics control the insect boundary layer in a river corridor

Insect flight along river corridors is a fundamental process that facilitates sustainable succession and diversity of aquatic and terrestrial insect communities in highly dynamic fluvial environments. This study examines variations in the thickness of the insect boundary layer (i.e., the pre-surface atmosphere layer in which air velocity does not exceed the sustained speed of flying insects) caused by interactions between diurnal winds and the heterogenous habitat mosaics in the floodplain of a braided river. Based on advective–diffusive theory, we develop and test a semi-empirical model that relates vertical flux of flying insects to vertical profiles of diurnal winds. Our model suggests that, in the logarithmic layer of wind, the density of insect fluxes decreases exponentially with the altitude due to the strong physical forcing. Inside the insect boundary layer, the insect fluxes can increase with the altitude while the winds speed remains nearly constant. We suggest a hypothesis that there is a close correspondence between the height of discontinuity points in the insect profiles (e.g. points with abrupt changes of the insect flux) and the displacement heights of the wind profiles (e.g. points above which the wind profile is logarithmic). Vertical profiles were sampled during three time-intervals at three different habitat locations in the river corridor: a bare gravel bar, a gravel bar with shrubs, and an island with trees and shrubs. Insects and wind speed were sampled and measured simultaneously over each location at 1.5-m intervals up to approximately 17 m elevation. The results support our working hypothesis on close correspondence between discontinuity and displacement points. The thickness of the insect boundary layer matches the height of the discontinuity points and was about 5 m above the bare gravel bar and the gravel bar with shrubs. Above the island, the structure of the insect boundary layer was more complex and consisted of two discontinuity points, one at the mean height of the trees’ crowns (ca. 15 m), and a second, internal boundary layer at the top of the shrubs (ca. 5 m). Our findings improve the understanding of how vegetation can influence longitudinal and lateral dispersal patterns of flying insects in river corridors and floodplain systems. It also highlights the importance of preserving terrestrial habitat diversity in river floodplains as an important driver of both biotic and abiotic (i.e., morphology and airscape) heterogeneit

Interactions between diurnal winds and floodplain mosaics control the insect boundary layer in a river corridor

Insect flight along river corridors is a fundamental process that facilitates sustainable succession and diversity of aquatic and terrestrial insect communities in highly dynamic fluvial environments. This study examines variations in the thickness of the insect boundary layer (i.e., the pre-surface atmosphere layer in which air velocity does not exceed the sustained speed of flying insects) caused by interactions between diurnal winds and the heterogenous habitat mosaics in the floodplain of a braided river. Based on advective–diffusive theory, we develop and test a semi-empirical model that relates vertical flux of flying insects to vertical profiles of diurnal winds. Our model suggests that, in the logarithmic layer of wind, the density of insect fluxes decreases exponentially with the altitude due to the strong physical forcing. Inside the insect boundary layer, the insect fluxes can increase with the altitude while the winds speed remains nearly constant. We suggest a hypothesis that there is a close correspondence between the height of discontinuity points in the insect profiles (e.g. points with abrupt changes of the insect flux) and the displacement heights of the wind profiles (e.g. points above which the wind profile is logarithmic). Vertical profiles were sampled during three time-intervals at three different habitat locations in the river corridor: a bare gravel bar, a gravel bar with shrubs, and an island with trees and shrubs. Insects and wind speed were sampled and measured simultaneously over each location at 1.5-m intervals up to approximately 17 m elevation. The results support our working hypothesis on close correspondence between discontinuity and displacement points. The thickness of the insect boundary layer matches the height of the discontinuity points and was about 5 m above the bare gravel bar and the gravel bar with shrubs. Above the island, the structure of the insect boundary layer was more complex and consisted of two discontinuity points, one at the mean height of the trees’ crowns (ca. 15 m), and a second, internal boundary layer at the top of the shrubs (ca. 5 m). Our findings improve the understanding of how vegetation can influence longitudinal and lateral dispersal patterns of flying insects in river corridors and floodplain systems. It also highlights the importance of preserving terrestrial habitat diversity in river floodplains as an important driver of both biotic and abiotic (i.e., morphology and airscape) heterogeneity

The influence of future changes in springtime Arctic ozone on stratospheric and surface climate

Stratospheric ozone is expected to recover by the mid-century due to the success of the Montreal Protocol in regulating the emission of ozone-depleting substances (ODSs). In the Arctic, ozone abundances are projected to surpass historical levels due to the combined effect of decreasing ODSs and elevated greenhouse gases (GHGs). While long-term changes in stratospheric ozone have been shown to be a major driver of future surface climate in the Southern Hemisphere during summertime, the dynamical and climatic impacts of elevated ozone levels in the Arctic have not been investigated. In this study, we use two chemistry climate models (the SOlar Climate Ozone Links – Max Planck Ocean Model (SOCOL-MPIOM) and the Community Earth System Model – Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (CESM-WACCM)) to assess the climatic impacts of future changes in Arctic ozone on stratospheric dynamics and surface climate in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 21st century. Under the high-emission scenario (RCP8.5) examined in this work, Arctic ozone returns to pre-industrial levels by the middle of the century. Thereby, the increase in Arctic ozone in this scenario warms the lower Arctic stratosphere; reduces the strength of the polar vortex, advancing its breakdown; and weakens the Brewer–Dobson circulation. The ozone-induced changes in springtime generally oppose the effects of GHGs on the polar vortex. In the troposphere, future changes in Arctic ozone induce a negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation, pushing the jet equatorward over the North Atlantic. These impacts of future ozone changes on NH surface climate are smaller than the effects of GHGs, but they are remarkably robust among the two models employed in this study, canceling out a portion of the GHG effects (up to 20 % over the Arctic). In the stratosphere, Arctic ozone changes cancel out a much larger fraction of the GHG-induced signal (up to 50 %–100 %), resulting in no overall change in the projected springtime stratospheric northern annular mode and a reduction in the GHG-induced delay of vortex breakdown of around 15 d. Taken together, our results indicate that future changes in Arctic ozone actively shape the projected changes in the stratospheric circulation and their coupling to the troposphere, thereby playing an important and previously unrecognized role as a driver of the large-scale atmospheric circulation response to climate change.</p

Dynamic drag modeling of submerged aquatic vegetation canopy flows

Vegetation has a profound effect on flow and sediment transport processes in natural rivers, by increasing both skin friction and form drag. The increase in drag introduces a drag discontinuity between the in-canopy flow and the flow above, which leads to the development of an inflection point in the velocity profile, resembling a free shear layer. Therefore, drag acts as the primary driver for the entire canopy system. Most current numerical hydraulic models which incorporate vegetation rely either on simple, static plant forms, or canopy-scaled drag terms. However, it is suggested that these are insufficient as vegetation canopies represent complex, dynamic, porous blockages within the flow, which are subject to spatially and temporally dynamic drag forces. Here we present a dynamic drag methodology within a CFD framework. Preliminary results for a benchmark cylinder case highlight the accuracy of the method, and suggest its applicability to more complex cases

Drivers of the tropospheric ozone budget throughout the 21st century under the medium-high climate scenario RCP 6.0

Because tropospheric ozone is both a greenhouse gas and harmful air pollutant, it is important to understand how anthropogenic activities may influence its abundance and distribution through the 21st century. Here, we present model simulations performed with the chemistry–climate model SOCOL, in which spatially disaggregated chemistry and transport tracers have been implemented in order to better understand the distribution and projected changes in tropospheric ozone. We examine the influences of ozone precursor emissions (nitrogen oxides (NOx /, carbon monoxide (CO) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs)), climate change (including methane effects) and stratospheric ozone recovery on the tropospheric ozone budget, in a simulation following the climate scenario Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 6.0 (a medium-high, and reasonably realistic climate scenario). Changes in ozone precursor emissions have the largest effect, leading to a global-mean increase in tropospheric ozone which maximizes in the early 21st century at 23% compared to 1960. The increase is most pronounced at northern midlatitudes, due to regional emission patterns: between 1990 and 2060, northern midlatitude tropospheric ozone remains at constantly large abundances: 31% larger than in 1960. Over this 70-year period, attempts to reduce emissions in Europe and North America do not have an effect on zonally averaged northern midlatitude ozone because of increasing emissions from Asia, together with the long lifetime of ozone in the troposphere. A simulation with fixed anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions of NOx , CO and non-methane VOCs at 1960 conditions shows a 6% increase in global-mean tropospheric ozone by the end of the 21st century, with an 11% increase at northern midlatitudes. This increase maximizes in the 2080s and is mostly caused by methane, which maximizes in the 2080s following RCP 6.0, and plays an important role in controlling ozone directly, and indirectly through its influence on other VOCs and CO. Enhanced flux of ozone from the stratosphere to the troposphere as well as climate change-induced enhancements in lightning NOx emissions also increase the tropospheric ozone burden, although their impacts are relatively small. Overall, the results show that under this climate scenario, ozone in the future is governed largely by changes in methane and NOx ; methane induces an increase in tropospheric ozone that is approximately one-third of that caused by NOx . Climate impacts on ozone through changes in tropospheric temperature, humidity and lightning NOx remain secondary compared with emission strategies relating to anthropogenic emissions of NOx , such as fossil fuel burning. Therefore, emission policies globally have a critical role to play in determining tropospheric ozone evolution through the 21st century

Heppa III Intercomparison Experiment on Electron Precipitation Impacts: 2. Model‐Measurement Intercomparison of Nitric Oxide (NO) During a Geomagnetic Storm in April 2010

Precipitating auroral and radiation belt electrons are considered to play an important part in the natural forcing of the middle atmosphere with a possible impact on the climate system. Recent studies suggest that this forcing is underestimated in current chemistry-climate models. The HEPPA III intercomparison experiment is a collective effort to address this point. In this study, we apply electron ionization rates from three data-sets in four chemistry-climate models during a geomagnetically active period in April 2010. Results are evaluated by comparison with observations of nitric oxide (NO) in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. Differences between the ionization rate data-sets have been assessed in a companion study. In the lower thermosphere, NO densities differ by up to one order of magnitude between models using the same ionization rate data-sets due to differences in the treatment of NO formation, model climatology, and model top height. However, a good agreement in the spatial and temporal variability of NO with observations lends confidence that the electron ionization is represented well above 80 km. In the mesosphere, the averages of model results from all chemistry-climate models differ consistently with the differences in the ionization-rate data-sets, but are within the spread of the observations, so no clear assessment on their comparative validity can be provided. However, observed enhanced amounts of NO in the mid-mesosphere below 70 km suggest a relevant contribution of the high-energy tail of the electron distribution to the hemispheric NO budget during and after the geomagnetic storm on April 6

HEPPA III Intercomparison Experiment on Electron Precipitation Impacts: 1. Estimated Ionization Rates During a Geomagnetic Active Period in April 2010

Precipitating auroral and radiation belt electrons are considered an important part of the natural forcing of the climate system. Recent studies suggest that this forcing is underestimated in current chemistry-climate models. The High Energy Particle Precipitation in the Atmosphere III intercomparison experiment is a collective effort to address this point. Here, eight different estimates of medium energy electron (MEE) (urn:x-wiley:21699380:media:jgra56926:jgra56926-math-0001) ionization rates are assessed during a geomagnetic active period in April 2010. The objective is to understand the potential uncertainty related to the MEE energy input. The ionization rates are all based on the Medium Energy Proton and Electron Detector (MEPED) on board the NOAA/POES and EUMETSAT/MetOp spacecraft series. However, different data handling, ionization rate calculations, and background atmospheres result in a wide range of mesospheric electron ionization rates. Although the eight data sets agree well in terms of the temporal variability, they differ by about an order of magnitude in ionization rate strength both during geomagnetic quiet and disturbed periods. The largest spread is found in the aftermath of enhanced geomagnetic activity. Furthermore, governed by different energy limits, the atmospheric penetration depth varies, and some differences related to latitudinal coverage are also evident. The mesospheric NO densities simulated with the Whole Atmospheric Community Climate Model driven by highest and lowest ionization rates differ by more than a factor of eight. In a follow-up study, the atmospheric responses are simulated in four chemistry-climate models (CCM) and compared to satellite observations, considering both the CCM structure and the ionization forcing