Analyzing clinical trial outcomes based on incomplete daily diary reports

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122440/1/sim6890.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122440/2/sim6890-sup-0001-supplementary.pdfhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/122440/3/sim6890_am.pd

Genetic variance for behavioural 'predictability' of stress response.

Genetic factors underpinning phenotypic variation are required if natural selection is to result in adaptive evolution. However, evolutionary and behavioural ecologists typically focus on variation among individuals in their average trait values and seek to characterize genetic contributions to this. As a result, less attention has been paid to if and how genes could contribute towards within-individual variance or trait 'predictability'. In fact, phenotypic 'predictability' can vary among individuals, and emerging evidence from livestock genetics suggests this can be due to genetic factors. Here, we test this empirically using repeated measures of a behavioural stress response trait in a pedigreed population of wild-type guppies. We ask (a) whether individuals differ in behavioural predictability and (b) whether this variation is heritable and so evolvable under selection. Using statistical methodology from the field of quantitative genetics, we find support for both hypotheses and also show evidence of a genetic correlation structure between the behavioural trait mean and individual predictability. We show that investigating sources of variability in trait predictability is statistically tractable and can yield useful biological interpretation. We conclude that, if widespread, genetic variance for 'predictability' will have major implications for the evolutionary causes and consequences of phenotypic variation.This work was supported by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (grant BB/L022656/1) and by a BBSRC studentship to PMP

Scale‐dependent strategies for coexistence of mesocarnivores in human‐dominated landscapes

publishedVersio

Cognitive Offloading: Structuring the Environment to Improve Children's Working Memory Task Performance

Research has shown that adults can engage in cognitive offloading, whereby internal processes are offloaded onto the environment to help task performance. Here, we investigate an application of this approach with children, in particular children with poor working memory. Participants were required to remember and recall sequences of colors by placing colored blocks in the correct serial order. In one condition the blocks were arranged to facilitate cognitive offloading (i.e., grouped by color), whereas in the other condition they were arranged randomly. Across two experiments (total N = 166) the ordered condition improved task performance for children with low working memory ability. In addition, participants in Experiment 2 rated the difficulty of the two arrangements and performed a further condition in which they were given an opportunity to freely arrange the blocks before completing the task. Despite performing better in the ordered condition, children with low working memory ability did not rate the ordered arrangement as easier, nor did they choose an ordered arrangement when given the opportunity to do so. This research shows that cognitive offloading can also be a useful process in populations other than typical adults, and the implications of this work for supporting children with poor working memory are discussed

Impact of the spatial uncertainty of seed dispersal on tree colonization dynamics in a temperate forest

An aggregated distribution of dispersed seeds may influence the colonization process in tree communities via inflated spatial uncertainty. To evaluate this possibility, we studied 10 tree species in a temperate forest: one primarily barochorous, six anemochorous and two endozoochorous species. A statistical model was developed by combining an empirical seed dispersal kernel with a gamma distribution of seedfall density, with parameters that vary with distance. In the probability density, the fitted models showed that seeds of Fagaceae (primarily barochorous) and Betulaceae (anemochorous) were disseminated locally (i.e. within 60 m of a mother tree), whereas seeds of Acer (anemochorous) and endozoochorous species were transported farther. Greater fecundity compensated for the lower probability of seed dispersal over long distances for some species. Spatial uncertainty in seedfall density was much greater within 60 m of a mother tree than farther away, irrespective of dispersal mode, suggesting that seed dispersal is particularly aggregated in the vicinity of mother trees. Simulation results suggested that such seed dispersal patterns could lead to sites in the vicinity of a tree being occupied by other species that disperse seeds from far away. We speculate that this process could promote coexistence by making the colonization rates of the species more similar on average and equalizing species fitness in this temperate forest community

Long‐Distance Natal Dispersal Is Relatively Frequent and Correlated with Environmental Factors in a Widespread Raptor

Dispersal is a critical process influencing population dynamics and responses to global change. Long‐distance dispersal (LDD) can be especially important for gene flow and adaptability, although little is known about the factors influencing LDD because studying large‐scale movements is challenging and LDD tends to be observed less frequently than shorter‐distance dispersal (SDD). We sought to understand patterns of natal dispersal at a large scale, specifically aiming to understand the relative frequency of LDD compared to SDD and correlates of dispersal distances. We used bird banding and encounter data for American kestrels (Falco sparverius) to investigate the effects of sex, migration strategy, population density, weather, year and agricultural land cover on LDD frequency, LDD distance and SDD distance in North America from 1961 to 2015. Nearly half of all natal dispersal (48.9%) was LDD (classified as \u3e30 km), and the likelihood of LDD was positively associated with the proportion of agricultural land cover around natal sites. Correlates of distance differed between LDD and SDD movements. LDD distance was positively correlated with latitude, a proxy for migration strategy, suggesting that migratory individuals disperse farther than residents. Distance of LDD in males was positively associated with maximum summer temperature. We did not find sex‐bias or an effect of population density in LDD distance or frequency. Within SDD, females tended to disperse farther than males, and distance was positively correlated with density. Sampling affected all responses, likely because local studies more frequently capture SDD within study areas. Our findings that LDD occurs at a relatively high frequency and is related to different proximate factors from SDD, including a lack of sex‐bias in LDD, suggest that LDD may be more common than previously reported, and LDD and SDD may be distinct processes rather than two outcomes originating from a single dispersal distribution. To our knowledge, this is the first evidence that LDD and SDD may be separate processes in an avian species, and suggests that environmental change may have different outcomes on the two processes

Financial Data Transparency, International Institutions, and Sovereign Borrowing Costs

Recent events in international finance illustrate the close connection between the viability of a country's major private financial institutions and the sustainability of its sovereign debt. We explore the precise nature of this connection and the ways in which it shapes investors’ expectations of sovereign creditworthiness. We consider how investors use the overall level of information available about the private financial sector—and the potential risks it poses to government finances—when making decisions about investing in sovereign debt. We expect that governments providing more information about the private financial sector will have lower, and less volatile, borrowing costs. In order to test this argument, we create a new Financial Data Transparency (FDT) Index measuring governments’ willingness to release credible financial system data. Using the FDT and a sample of high-income OECD countries, we find that such transparency reduces sovereign borrowing costs. The effects are conditional on the level of public indebtedness. Transparent countries with low debt enjoy lower and less volatile borrowing costs

Synergy in anti-malarial pre-erythrocytic and transmission-blocking antibodies is achieved by reducing parasite density.

Anti-malarial pre-erythrocytic vaccines (PEV) target transmission by inhibiting human infection but are currently partially protective. It has been posited, but never demonstrated, that co-administering transmission-blocking vaccines (TBV) would enhance malaria control. We hypothesized a mechanism that TBV could reduce parasite density in the mosquito salivary glands, thereby enhancing PEV efficacy. This was tested using a multigenerational population assay, passaging Plasmodium berghei to Anopheles stephensi mosquitoes. A combined efficacy of 90.8% (86.7-94.2%) was observed in the PEV +TBV antibody group, higher than the estimated efficacy of 83.3% (95% CrI 79.1-87.0%) if the two antibodies acted independently. Higher PEV efficacy at lower mosquito parasite loads was observed, comprising the first direct evidence that co-administering anti-sporozoite and anti-transmission interventions act synergistically, enhancing PEV efficacy across a range of TBV doses and transmission intensities. Combining partially effective vaccines of differing anti-parasitic classes is a pragmatic, powerful way to accelerate malaria elimination efforts