Forecasting the Fragility of the Banking and Insurance Sector

This paper considers the issue of forecasting financial fragility of banks and insurances using a panel data set of performance indicators, namely distance-to- default, taking unobserved common factors into account. We show that common factors are important in the performance of banks and insurances, analyze the influences of a number of observable factors on banking and insurance performance, and evaluate the forecasts from our model. We find that taking unobserved common factors into account reduces the the root mean square forecasts error of firm specific forecasts by up to 11% and of system forecasts by up to 29% relative to a model based only on observed variables. Estimates of the factor loadings suggest that the correlation of financial institutions has been relatively stable over the forecast period.Financial stability, financial linkages, banking, insurances, unobserved common factors, forecasting

Sovereign Bond Yield Spreads: A Time-Varying Coefficient Approach

We study the determinants of sovereign bond yield spreads across 10 EMU countries between Q1/1999 and Q1/2010. We apply a semiparametric time-varying coefficient model to identify, to what extent an observed change in the yield spread is due to a shift in macroeconomic fundamentals or due to altering risk pricing. We find that at the beginning of EMU, the government debt level and the general investors' risk aversion had a significant impact on interest differentials. In the subsequent years, however, financial markets paid less attention to the fiscal position of a country and the safe haven status of Germany diminished in importance. By the end of 2006, two years before the fall of Lehman Brothers, financial markets began to grant Germany safe haven status again. One year later, when financial turmoil began, the market reaction to fiscal loosening increased considerably. The altering in risk pricing over time period confirms the need of time-varying coefficient models in this context.sovereign bond spreads, fiscal policy, euro area, financial crisis, semiparametric time-varying coefficient model, nonparametric estimation

Fool the markets? Creative accounting, fiscal transparency and sovereign risk premia

We investigate the effects of official fiscal data and creative accounting signals on interest rate spreads between bond yields in the European Union. Our model predicts that risk premia contained in government bond spreads should increase in both, the official fiscal position and the expected "creative" part of fiscal policy. The relative importance of these two signals depends on the transparency of the country. Greater transparency reduces risk premia. The empirical results confirm the hypotheses. Creative accounting increases the spread. The increase of the risk premium is stronger if financial markets are unsure about the true extent of creative accounting. Fiscal transparency reduces risk premia. Instrumental variable regressions confirm these results by addressing potential reverse causality problems and measurement bias. --Risk premia,government bond yields,creative accounting,stock-flow adjustments,gimmickry,transparency

The performance of the Euribor futures market: Effficiency and the impact of ECB policy announcements

For an effective and smooth monetary policy, it is important that interest rate expectations are in line with central bank policy intentions. The predictability of money market interest rates is, therefore, an indicator of transparency and clarity in the communication of monetary policy and of the effectiveness of monetary policy implementation. In this paper, we analyse three aspects of the predictability of money market rates in the European Monetary Union (EMU). The first is the efficiency of the three-month Euribor interest rate futures markets. The second aspect is the effect of ECB policy announcements on the volatility of Euribor futures rates, and the third aspect is the effect of ECB policy announcements on the prediction error contained in Euribor futures rates. We find that the new Euro money markets were able to predict short-term rates well. Our results suggest that the ECB communication of monetary policy has worked well during the first years of EMU and that the predictability of ECB policy decisions seems to have improved over time. ECB Council decisions still cause some surprises, but their effect on volatility is small. --

Sovereign Risk Premiums in the European Government Bond Market

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU government bonds issued between 1993 and 2005 on the basis of a unique dataset of issue spreads in the US and DM (Euro) bond market. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premiums which increase with fiscal imbalances and depend negatively on the issuer's relative bond market size. The start of the European Monetary Union has shifted market attention to debt service payments as the key measure of indebtedness and eliminated liquidity premiums in the euro area

Fool the Markets? Creative Accounting, Fiscal Transparency and Sovereign Risk Premia

We investigate the effects of official fiscal data and creative accounting signals on interest rate spreads between bond yields in the European Union. Our model predicts that risk premia contained in government bond spreads should increase in both the official fiscal position and the expected “creative” part of fiscal policy. The relative importance of these two signals depends on the transparency of the country. Greater transparency reduces risk premia. The empirical results confirm the hypotheses. Creative accounting increases the spread. The increase of the risk premium is stronger if financial markets are unsure about the true extent of creative accounting. Fiscal transparency reduces risk premia.risk premia, government bond yields, creative accounting, stock-flow adjustments, gimmickry, transparency

The Future of the International Monetary System

The financial crisis of 2007/2008 and the current "Euro crisis" challenge the current global monetary system. They drastically reveal the actual system's weaknesses und show the eminent importance of the international monetary system for the stability of markets and national economies. DIW Berlin was commissioned by the Federal Ministry of Finance to research possible alternatives to the existing exchange rate regime. In principle, neither of the two extremes - completely free or fixed exchange rates - is suitable. A mixed system is preferable - with improvements to the status quo, though. An exchange rate regime with few big currency areas, which are linked to each other with flexible exchange rates, should be the aim of reforms. This should correspond to a multi-polar key currency system with the currently dominating US Dollar and the Euro as well as the Chinese Renmimbi as most important actors. These developments should be accompanied by substantial improvements in the regulatory framework of the financial markets. Necessary elements are a reinforced global and especially European economic coordination and an internationally agreed-on, assertive financial market authority.International Monetary System, Key Currency, Exchange Rate System, Financial Crisis, International Economic Policy

Households' response to wealth changes; do gains or losses make a difference

We estimate the excess impact of financial asset capital losses relative to gains on household active savings and durable goods consumption in the Netherlands. The sample period covers both the stock-market boom during the 90's, and the bear period afterwards. The results suggest that households react more to capital losses than to capital gains. Failing to take into account this asymmetry may seriously bias the estimates of the marginal propensity to consume out of wealth.

Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU eurobonds issued between 1991 and 2002. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premia which increase with the debt, deficit and debt-service ratio and depend positively on the issuer’s relative bond market size. Global investors’ attitude towards credit risk, measured as the yield spread between low grade US corporate bonds and government bonds, also affects bond yield spreads between EU countries and Germany/USA. The start of the European Monetary Union had significant effects on the bond pricing of the member states. --

Sovereign risk premia in the European government bond market

This paper provides a study of bond yield differentials among EU eurobonds issued between 1991 and 2002. Interest differentials between bonds issued by EU countries and Germany or the USA contain risk premia which increase with the debt, deficit and debt-service ratio and depend positively on the issuer’s relative bond market size. Global investors’ attitude towards credit risk, measured as the yield spread between low grade US corporate bonds and government bonds, also affects bond yield spreads between EU countries and Germany/USA. The start of the European Monetary Union had significant effects on the bond pricing of the member states. JEL Classification: G12, E43, E62, H63asset pricing, determination of interest rates, Fiscal Policy, government debt