Vitamin D status and epigenetic-based mortality risk score: strong independent and joint prediction of all-cause mortality in a population-based cohort study

Background: Vitamin D deficiency and insufficiency have been established to be strongly associated with increased overall mortality and deaths from specific aging-related diseases. Recently, an epigenetic “mortality risk score” (MS) based on whole blood DNA methylation at the 10 most prominent mortality-related cytosine-phosphate-guanine (CpG) sites has also been found to be highly related to all-cause mortality. This study aimed to explore whether vitamin D status, defined by serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] concentrations, is associated with the MS and to what extent both indicators are individually and jointly capable of predicting all-cause mortality in a general population sample of older adults. Results: The MS was derived from the blood DNA methylation profiles measured by Illumina Human Methylation 450K Beadchip, and serum 25(OH)D concentration was measured among 1467 participants aged 50–75 of the German ESTHER cohort study. There was no association between vitamin D status and the MS at baseline, but both metrics were prominently and independently associated with all-cause mortality during a median follow-up of 15.2 years. The combination of both indicators showed the potential to be a particularly strong prognostic index for all-cause mortality. Participants with vitamin D deficiency (< 30 nmol/L) and high MS (> 5 CpG sites with aberrant methylation) had almost sixfold mortality (hazard ratio 5.79, 95% CI 3.06–10.94) compared with participants with sufficient vitamin D (≥ 50 nmol/L) and a low MS (0–1 CpG site with aberrant methylation). Conclusions: This study suggests that vitamin D and the MS are strong independent predictors of all-cause mortality in older adults

Longitudinal Associations of Body Mass Index, Waist Circumference, and Waist-to-Hip Ratio with Biomarkers of Oxidative Stress in Older Adults: Results of a Large Cohort Study

Background: In the literature, obesity is discussed as a determinant of high oxidative stress (OS). Hence, prevention or reduction of obesity could prevent high OS and subsequently serve as a target for “healthy aging.” Methods: Diacron’s reactive oxygen metabolites test (D-ROM) and total thiol levels (TTL), a marker of antioxidant defense capacity, were measured in 1,734 participants of a population-based cohort study of older adults (age range: 57–83 years) at 2 time points 3 years apart. The longitudinal associations of body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and waist circumference with D-ROM and TTL were assessed with multivariable adjusted generalized linear models. Dose-response analyses were conducted with restricted cubic splines. Results: D-ROM was not significantly associated with any of the weight measures. On the contrary, TTL showed statistically significant, inverse linear associations with all weight measures. Conclusion: A healthy body weight seems to be highly relevant for the antioxidative defense capacity of human beings. In contrast, D-ROM levels were independent of the study participant’s weight. Clinical trials are needed to corroborate if loss of weight by obese individuals can effectively increase TTL and subsequently also life expectancy

Indirect comparisons of therapeutic interventions

Health political background: The comparison of the effectiveness of health technologies is not only laid down in German law (Social Code Book V, § 139 and § 35b) but also constitutes a central element of clinical guidelines and decision making in health care. Tools supporting decision making (e. g. Health Technology Assessments (HTA)) are therefore in need of a valid methodological repertoire for these comparisons. Scientific background: Randomised controlled head-to-head trials which directly compare the effects of different therapies are considered the gold standard methodological approach for the comparison of the efficacy of interventions. Because this type of trial is rarely found, comparisons of efficacy often need to rely on indirect comparisons whose validity is being controversially debated. Research questions: Research questions for the current assessment are: Which (statistical) methods for indirect comparisons of therapeutic interventions do exist, how often are they applied and how valid are their results in comparison to the results of head-to-head trials? Methods: In a systematic literature research all medical databases of the German Institute of Medical Documentation and Information (DIMDI) are searched for methodological papers as well as applications of indirect comparisons in systematic reviews. Results of the literature analysis are summarized qualitatively for the characterisation of methods and quantitatively for the frequency of their application. The validity of the results from indirect comparisons is checked by comparing them to the results from the gold standard – a direct comparison. Data sets from systematic reviews which use both direct and indirect comparisons are tested for consistency by of the z-statistic. Results: 29 methodological papers and 106 applications of indirect methods in systematic reviews are being analysed. Four methods for indirect comparisons can be identified: 1. Unadjusted indirect comparisons include, independent of any comparator, all randomised controlled trials (RCT) that provide a study arm with the intervention of interest. 2. Adjusted indirect comparisons 3. and metaregression analyses include only those studies that provide one study arm with the intervention of interest and another study arm with a common comparator. While the aforementioned methods use conventional metaanalytical techniques, 4. Mixed treatment comparisons (MTC) use Bayesian statistics. They are able to analyse a complex network of RCT with multiple comparators simultaneously. During the period from 1999 to 2008 adjusted indirect comparisons are the most commonly used method for indirect comparisons. Since 2006 an increase in the application of the more methodologically challenging MTC is being observed. For the validity check 248 data sets, which include results of a direct and an indirect comparison, are available. The share of statistically significant discrepant results is greatest in the unadjusted indirect comparisons (25,5% [95% CI: 13,1%; 38%]), followed by metaregression analyses (16,7% [95% CI: -13,2%; 46,5%]), adjusted indirect comparisons (12,1% [95% CI: 6,1%; 18%]) and MTC (1,8% [95% CI: -1,7%; 5,2%]). Discrepant results are mainly detected if the basic assumption for an indirect comparison – between-study homogeneity – does not hold. However a systematic over- or underestimation of the results of direct comparisons by any of the indirectly comparing methods was not observed in this sample. Discussion: The selection of an appropriate method for an indirect comparison has to account for its validity, the number of interventions to be compared and the quality as well as the quantity of available studies. Unadjusted indirect comparisons provide, contrasted with the results of direct comparisons, a low validity. Adjusted indirect comparisons and MTC may, under certain circumstances, give results which are consistent with the results of direct comparisons. The limited number of available reviews utilizing metaregression analyses for indirect comparisons currently prohibits empirical evaluation of this methodology. Conclusions/Recommendations: Given the main prerequisite – a pool of homogenous and high-quality RCT – the results of head-to-head trials may be pre-estimated by an adjusted indirect comparison or a MTC. In the context of HTA and guideline development they are valuable tools if there is a lack of a direct comparison of the interventions of interest

Caring for the elderly:A person-centered segmentation approach for exploring the association between health care needs, mental health care use, and costs in Germany

BACKGROUND: Person-centered care demands the evaluation of needs and preferences of the patients. In this study, we conducted a segmentation analysis of a large sample of older people based on their bio-psycho-social-needs and functioning. The aim of this study was to clarify differences in health care use and costs of the elderly in Germany. METHODS: Data was derived from the 8-year follow-up of the ESTHER study-a German epidemiological study of the elderly population. Trained medical doctors visited n = 3124 participants aged 57 to 84 years in their home. Bio-psycho-social health care needs were assessed using the INTERMED for the Elderly (IM-E) interview. Further information was measured using questionnaires or assessment scales (Barthel index, Patients Health Questionnaire (PHQ) etc.). The segmentation analysis applied a factor mixture model (FMM) that combined both a confirmatory factor analysis and a latent class analysis. RESULTS: In total, n = 3017 persons were included in the study. Results of the latent class analysis indicated that a five-cluster-model best fit the data. The largest cluster (48%) can be described as healthy, one cluster (13.9%) shows minor physical complaints and higher social support, while the third cluster (24.3%) includes persons with only a few physical and psychological difficulties ("minor physical and psychological complaints"). One of the profiles (10.5%) showed high and complex bio-psycho-social health care needs ("complex needs") while another profile (2.5%) can be labelled as "frail". Mean values of all psychosomatic variables-including the variable health care costs-gradually increased over the five clusters. Use of mental health care was comparatively low in the more burdened clusters. In the profiles "minor physical and psychological complaints" and "complex needs", only half of the persons suffering from a mental disorder were treated by a mental health professional; in the frail cluster, only a third of those with a depression or anxiety disorder received mental health care. CONCLUSIONS: The segmentation of the older people of this study sample led to five different clusters that vary profoundly regarding their bio-psycho-social needs. Results indicate that elderly persons with complex bio-psycho-social needs do not receive appropriate mental health care

Associations of frailty with health care costs – results of the ESTHER cohort study

Background: The concept of frailty is rapidly gaining attention as an independent syndrome with high prevalence in older adults. Thereby, frailty is often related to certain adverse outcomes like mortality or disability. Another adverse outcome discussed is increased health care utilization. However, only few studies examined the impact of frailty on health care utilization and corresponding costs. The aim of this study was therefore to investigate comprehensively the relationship between frailty, health care utilization and costs. Methods: Cross sectional data from 2598 older participants (57–84 years) recruited in the Saarland, Germany, between 2008 and 2010 was used. Participants passed geriatric assessments that included Fried’s five frailty criteria: weakness, slowness, exhaustion, unintentional weight loss, and physical inactivity. Health care utilization was recorded in the sectors of inpatient treatment, outpatient treatment, pharmaceuticals, and nursing care. Results: Prevalence of frailty (≥3 symptoms) was 8.0 %. Mean total 3-month costs of frail participants were €3659 (4 or 5 symptoms) and €1616 (3 symptoms) as compared to €642 of nonfrail participants (no symptom). Controlling for comorbidity and general socio-demographic characteristics in multiple regression models, the difference in total costs between frail and non-frail participants still amounted to €1917; p < .05 (4 or 5 symptoms) and €680; p < .05 (3 symptoms). Among the 5 symptoms of frailty, weight loss and exhaustion were significantly associated with total costs after controlling for comorbidity. Conclusions: The study provides evidence that frailty is associated with increased health care costs. The analyses furthermore indicate that frailty is an important factor for health care costs independent from pure age and comorbidity. Costs were rather attributable to frailty (and comorbidity) than to age. This stresses that the overlapping concepts of multimorbidity and frailty are both necessary to explain health care use and corresponding costs among older adults

The associations of DNA methylation alterations in oxidative stress-related genes with cancer incidence and mortality outcomes: a population-based cohort study

Background: Reactive oxygen species may be involved in epigenetic gene activation or silencing. We aimed to identify CpG sites, at which DNA methylation is related to urinary 8-isoprostane levels (biomarker of lipid peroxidation) and cancer or mortality outcomes. This investigation was based on a German, population-based cohort with linkage to cancer and mortality registry data (2000–2016). Results: Blood DNA methylation in promoter regions of 519 genes, known to be involved in pathways from oxidative stress (OS) to cancer, was obtained at the cohort's baseline examination. Inverse associations of DNA methylation at cg25365794 (ALOXE3) and cg08862778 (MTOR) with 8-isoprostane levels were observed in a derivation set (n = 1000) and validated in two independent subsets of the cohort (n = 548 and n = 741). Multivariate regression models were used to evaluate the associations of DNA methylation at the two CpG sites with lung, colorectal, prostate, breast, and overall cancer incidence as well as CVD, cancer, and all-cause mortality. DNA methylation at cg25365794 (ALOXE3) was inversely associated with lung and prostate cancer incidence. DNA methylation at cg08862778 (MTOR) was associated with a 43% lower breast cancer incidence in the top vs. bottom tertile. Conclusion: The finding for ALOXE3 may not be causal. As ALOXE3 is mainly expressed in skin tissue, the observed association might reflect the fact that both DNA methylation at the ALOXE3 gene and urinary 8-isoprostane concentrations depend on the level of OS in tissues. Contrarily, the finding for the MTOR gene and breast cancer is biologically plausible because the MTOR protein plays an important role in PI3K/Akt signaling, which is a pathway related to cancer development and cell senescence

Primary cardiovascular risk prediction by LDL-cholesterol in Caucasian middle-aged and older adults: a joint analysis of three cohorts

Under embargo until: 2022-06-01Aims Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is an established causal driver of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD), but its performance and age-dependency as a biomarker for incident events and mortality arising from ASCVD is less clear. The aim was to determine the value of LDL-C as a susceptibility/risk biomarker for incident coronary heart disease (CHD), ASCVD, and stroke events and deaths, for the age groups <50 and ≥50 years. Methods and results The performance of LDL-C was evaluated in three cohorts, FINRISK 2002 (n = 7709), HUSK (n = 5431), and ESTHER (n = 4559), by Cox proportional hazards models, C-statistics, and net reclassification index calculations. Additionally, the hazard ratios (HRs) for the three cohorts were pooled by meta-analysis. The most consistent association was observed for CHD [95% confidence interval (CI) for HRs per standard deviation ranging from 0.99 to 1.37], whereas the results were more modest for ASCVD (0.96–1.18) due to lack of association with stroke (0.77–1.24). The association and discriminatory value of LDL-C with all endpoints in FINRISK 2002 and HUSK were attenuated in subjects 50 years and older [HRs (95% CI) obtained from meta-analysis 1.11 (1.04–1.18) for CHD, 1.15 (1.02–1.29) for CHD death, 1.02 (0.98–1.06) for ASCVD, 1.12 (1.02–1.23) for ASCVD death, and 0.97 (0.89–1.05) for stroke]. Conclusion In middle-aged and older adults, associations between LDL-C and all the studied cardiovascular endpoints were relatively weak, while LDL-C showed stronger association with rare events of pre-mature CHD or ASCVD death among middle-aged adults. The predictive performance of LDL-C also depends on the studied cardiovascular endpoint.acceptedVersio

Evidence for the free radical/oxidative stress theory of ageing from the CHANCES consortium : a meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND: The free radical/oxidative stress theory of ageing has received considerable attention, but the evidence on the association of oxidative stress markers with mortality is sparse. METHODS: We measured derivatives of reactive oxygen metabolite (D-ROM) levels as a proxy for the reactive oxygen species concentration and total thiol levels (TTL) as a proxy for the redox control status in 10,622 men and women (age range, 45–85 years), from population-based cohorts from Germany, Poland, Czech Republic, and Lithuania, of whom 1,702 died during follow-up. RESULTS: Both oxidative stress markers were significantly associated with all-cause mortality independently from established risk factors (including inflammation) and from each other in all cohorts. Regarding cause-specific mortality, compared to low D-ROM levels (≤340 Carr U), very high D-ROM levels (>500 Carr U) were strongly associated with both cardiovascular (relative risk (RR), 5.09; 95 % CI, 2.67–9.69) and cancer mortality (RR, 4.34; 95 % CI, 2.31–8.16). TTL was only associated with CVD mortality (RR, 1.30; 95 % CI, 1.15–1.48, for one-standard-deviation-decrease). The strength of the association of TTL with CVD mortality increased with age of the participants (RR for one-standard-deviation-decrease in those aged 70–85 years was 1.65; 95 % CI, 1.22–2.24). CONCLUSIONS: In these four population-based cohort studies from Central and Eastern Europe, the oxidative stress serum markers D-ROM and TTL were independently and strongly associated with all-cause and CVD mortality. In addition, D-ROM levels were also strongly associated with cancer mortality. This study provides epidemiological evidence supporting the free radical/oxidative stress theory of ageing and suggests that d-ROMs and TTL are useful oxidative stress markers associated with premature mortality. ELECTRONIC SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIAL: The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12916-015-0537-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users

HbA1c levels in non-diabetic older adults - No J-shaped associations with primary cardiovascular events, cardiovascular and all-cause mortality after adjustment for confounders in a meta-analysis of individual participant data from six cohort studies

Background:To determine the shape of the associations of HbA1c with mortality and cardiovascular outcomes in non-diabetic individuals and explore potential explanations. Methods: The associations of HbA1c with all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and primary cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction or stroke) were assessed in non-diabetic subjects ≥50 years from six population-based cohort studies from Europe and the USA and meta-analyzed. Very low, low, intermediate and increased HbA1c were defined as <5.0, 5.0 to <5.5, 5.5 to <6.0 and 6.0 to <6.5 % (equals <31, 31 to <37, 37 to <42 and 42 to <48 mmol/mol), respectively, and low HbA1c was used as reference in Cox proportional hazards models. Results:Overall, 6,769 of 28,681 study participants died during a mean follow-up of 10.7 years, of whom 2,648 died of cardiovascular disease. Furthermore, 2,493 experienced a primary cardiovascular event. A linear association with primary cardiovascular events was observed. Adjustment for cardiovascular risk factors explained about 50 % of the excess risk and attenuated hazard ratios (95 % confidence interval) for increased HbA1c to 1.14 (1.03–1.27), 1.17 (1.00–1.37) and 1.19 (1.04–1.37) for all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality and cardiovascular events, respectively. The six cohorts yielded inconsistent results for the association of very low HbA1c levels with the mortality outcomes and the pooled effect estimates were not statistically significant. In one cohort with a pronounced J-shaped association of HbA1c levels with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (NHANES), the following confounders of the association of very low HbA1c levels with mortality outcomes were identified: race/ethnicity; alcohol consumption; BMI; as well as biomarkers of iron deficiency anemia and liver function. Associations for very low HbA1c levels lost statistical significance in this cohort after adjusting for these confounders.Conclusions: A linear association of HbA1c levels with primary cardiovascular events was observed. For cardiovascular and all-cause mortality, the observed small effect sizes at both the lower and upper end of HbA1c distribution do not support the notion of a J-shaped association of HbA1c levels because a certain degree of residual confounding needs to be considered in the interpretation of the results. Keywords: Glycated hemoglobin, Cardiovascular disease, Myocardial infarction, Stroke, Mortality, Cohort study, Meta-analysi

High-density lipoprotein cholesterol, coronary artery disease, and cardiovascular mortality

Aims High-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol is a strong predictor of cardiovascular mortality. This work aimed to investigate whether the presence of coronary artery disease (CAD) impacts on its predictive value. Methods and results We studied 3141 participants (2191 males, 950 females) of the LUdwigshafen RIsk and Cardiovascular health (LURIC) study. They had a mean ± standard deviation age of 62.6 ± 10.6 years, body mass index of 27.5 ± 4.1 kg/m², and HDL cholesterol of 38.9 ± 10.8 mg/dL. The cohort consisted of 699 people without CAD, 1515 patients with stable CAD, and 927 patients with unstable CAD. The participants were prospectively followed for cardiovascular mortality over a median (inter-quartile range) period of 9.9 (8.7-10.7) years. A total of 590 participants died from cardiovascular diseases. High-density lipoprotein cholesterol by tertiles was inversely related to cardiovascular mortality in the entire cohort (P = 0.009). There was significant interaction between HDL cholesterol and CAD in predicting the outcome (P = 0.007). In stratified analyses, HDL cholesterol was strongly associated with cardiovascular mortality in people without CAD [3rd vs. 1st tertile: HR (95% CI) = 0.37 (0.18-0.74), P = 0.005], but not in patients with stable [3rd vs. 1st tertile: HR (95% CI) = 0.81 (0.61-1.09), P = 0.159] and unstable [3rd vs. 1st tertile: HR (95% CI) = 0.91 (0.59-1.41), P = 0.675] CAD. These results were replicated by analyses in 3413 participants of the AtheroGene cohort and 5738 participants of the ESTHER cohort, and by a meta-analysis comprising all three cohorts. Conclusion The inverse relationship of HDL cholesterol with cardiovascular mortality is weakened in patients with CAD. The usefulness of considering HDL cholesterol for cardiovascular risk stratification seems limited in such patient