The accuracy of spread decomposition models in capturing informed trades Evidence from the London Stock Exchange and behavioural implications

Abstract Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the empirical relationship between trades undertaken by informed agents (managers) and the proxies for informed trades computed by bid-ask spread decomposition models. Design/methodology/approach – An econometric application of spread decomposition models to data from the London Stock Exchange, with an examination of whether the model predictions are co-integrated with actual outcomes. Findings – The authors find overwhelming evidence of non-stationary behaviour between the actual and predicted informed trade prices. The findings suggest that there is a clear need for an alternative to extant spread decomposition models perhaps incorporating findings from behavioural finance. Originality/value – Given the importance of stock market liquidity and the extensive use of spread decomposition models in predicting informed trades, the authors believe that the research conducted in the paper is an important contribution to the market microstructure literature. Keywords Information asymmetry, Behavioural finance, Bid-ask spread, Spread decomposition models, Time series modelling Paper type Research pape

Underperforming policy networks : the biopesticides network in the United Kingdom

Loosely integrated and incomplete policy networks have been neglected in the literature. They are important to consider in terms of understanding network underperformance. The effective delivery and formulation of policy requires networks that are not incomplete or underperforming. The biopesticides policy network in the United Kingdom is considered and its components identified with an emphasis on the lack of integration of retailers and environmental groups. The nature of the network constrains the actions of its agents and frustrates the achievement of policy goals. A study of this relatively immature policy network also allows for a focus on network formation. The state, via an external central government department, has been a key factor in the development of the network. Therefore, it is important to incorporate such factors more systematically into understandings of network formation. Feedback efforts from policy have increased interactions between productionist actors but the sphere of consumption remains insufficiently articulated

Evolution of Mycobacterium ulcerans and other mycolactone-producing mycobacteria from a common Mycobacterium marinum progenitor

It had been assumed that production of the cytotoxic polyketide mycolactone was strictly associated with Mycobacterium ulcerans, the causative agent of Buruli ulcer. However, a recent study has uncovered a broader distribution of mycolactone-producing mycobacteria (MPM) that includes mycobacteria cultured from diseased fish and frogs in the United States and from diseased fish in the Red and Mediterranean Seas. All of these mycobacteria contain versions of the M. ulcerans pMUM plasmid, produce mycolactones, and show a high degree of genetic relatedness to both M. ulcerans and Mycobacterium marinum. Here, we show by multiple genetic methods, including multilocus sequence analysis and DNA-DNA hybridization, that all MPM have evolved from a common M. marinum progenitor to form a genetically cohesive group among a more diverse assemblage of M. marinum strains. Like M. ulcerans, the fish and frog MPM show multiple copies of the insertion sequence IS2404. Comparisons of pMUM and chromosomal gene sequences demonstrate that plasmid acquisition and the subsequent ability to produce mycolactone were probably the key drivers of speciation. Ongoing evolution among MPM has since produced at least two genetically distinct ecotypes that can be broadly divided into those typically causing disease in ectotherms (but also having a high zoonotic potential) and those causing disease in endotherms, such as humans

Vulnerable Users’ Perceptions of Transport Technologies

As the global population continues to grow, age and urbanize, it is vital to provide accessible transport so that neither ageing nor disability constitute barriers to social inclusion. While technology can enhance urban access, there is a need to study the ways by which transport technologies - real-time information, pedestrian navigation, surveillance, and road pricing - could be more effectively adopted by users. The reason for this is that some people, and particularly vulnerable populations, are still likely to reluctantly use (or even avoid using) technologies perceived as 'unknown' and 'complicated'. Based on evidence from British and Swedish case studies on older people's perceptions of the aforementioned transport technologies, as well as on a Swedish case study of visually impaired people's perceptions, this article makes the case that technology is only one tool in a complex socio-technical system, and one which brings challenges. The authors also suggest that although vulnerable populations are not homogeneous when expressing attitudes towards transport technologies, their assessment criteria tend to be 'pro-social' as they usually consider that the societal benefits outweigh the personal benefits. Emphasising aspects linked to the technologies' pro-social potential or relevance to the individual user could increase acceptance

Methods to Recruit Hard-to-Reach Groups: Comparing Two Chain Referral Sampling Methods of Recruiting Injecting Drug Users Across Nine Studies in Russia and Estonia

Evidence suggests rapid diffusion of injecting drug use and associated outbreaks of HIV among injecting drug users (IDUs) in the Russian Federation and Eastern Europe. There remains a need for research among non-treatment and community-recruited samples of IDUs to better estimate the dynamics of HIV transmission and to improve treatment and health services access. We compare two sampling methodologies “respondent-driven sampling” (RDS) and chain referral sampling using “indigenous field workers” (IFS) to investigate the relative effectiveness of RDS to reach more marginal and hard-to-reach groups and perhaps to include those with the riskiest behaviour around HIV transmission. We evaluate the relative efficiency of RDS to recruit a lower cost sample in comparison to IFS. We also provide a theoretical comparison of the two approaches. We draw upon nine community-recruited surveys of IDUs undertaken in the Russian Federation and Estonia between 2001 and 2005 that used either IFS or RDS. Sampling effects on the demographic composition and injecting risk behaviours of the samples generated are compared using multivariate analysis. Our findings suggest that RDS does not appear to recruit more marginalised sections of the IDU community nor those engaging in riskier injecting behaviours in comparison with IFS. RDS appears to have practical advantages over IFS in the implementation of fieldwork in terms of greater recruitment efficiency and safety of field workers, but at a greater cost. Further research is needed to assess how the practicalities of implementing RDS in the field compromises the requirements mandated by the theoretical guidelines of RDS for adjusting the sample estimates to obtain estimates of the wider IDU population

Improving survey methods in sero-epidemiological studies of injecting drug users: a case example of two cross sectional surveys in Serbia and Montenegro

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the prevalence of HIV or HCV in injecting drug users (IDUs) in Serbia and Montenegro. We measured prevalence of antibodies to HIV (anti-HIV) and hepatitis C virus (anti-HCV), and risk factors for anti-HCV, in community-recruited IDUs in Belgrade and Podgorica, and determined the performance of a parallel rapid HIV testing algorithm. METHODS: Respondent driven sampling and audio-computer assisted survey interviewing (ACASI) methods were employed. Dried blood spots were collected for unlinked anonymous antibody testing. Belgrade IDUs were offered voluntary confidential rapid HIV testing using a parallel testing algorithm, the performance of which was compared with standard laboratory tests. Predictors of anti-HCV positivity and the diagnostic accuracy of the rapid HIV test algorithm were calculated. RESULTS: Overall population prevalence of anti-HIV and anti-HCV in IDUs were 3% and 63% respectively in Belgrade (n = 433) and 0% and 22% in Podgorica (n = 328). Around a quarter of IDUs in each city had injected with used needles and syringes in the last four weeks. In both cities anti-HCV positivity was associated with increasing number of years injecting (eg Belgrade adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 5.6 (95% CI 3.2-9.7) and Podgorica AOR 2.5 (1.3-5.1) for >or= 10 years v 0-4 years), daily injecting (Belgrade AOR 1.6 (1.0-2.7), Podgorica AOR 2.1 (1.3-5.1)), and having ever shared used needles/syringes (Belgrade AOR 2.3 (1.0-5.4), Podgorica AOR 1.9 (1.4-2.6)). Half (47%) of Belgrade participants accepted rapid HIV testing, and there was complete concordance between rapid test results and subsequent confirmatory laboratory tests (sensitivity 100% (95%CI 59%-100%), specificity 100% (95%CI 98%-100%)). CONCLUSION: The combination of community recruitment, ACASI, rapid testing and a linked diagnostic accuracy study provide enhanced methods for conducting blood borne virus sero-prevalence studies in IDUs. The relatively high uptake of rapid testing suggests that introducing this method in community settings could increase the number of people tested in high risk populations. The high prevalence of HCV and relatively high prevalence of injecting risk behaviour indicate that further HIV transmission is likely in IDUs in both cities. Urgent scale up of HIV prevention interventions is needed

Left gaze bias in humans, rhesus monkeys and domestic dogs

While viewing faces, human adults often demonstrate a natural gaze bias towards the left visual field, that is, the right side of the viewee’s face is often inspected first and for longer periods. Using a preferential looking paradigm, we demonstrate that this bias is neither uniquely human nor limited to primates, and provide evidence to help elucidate its biological function within a broader social cognitive framework. We observed that 6-month-old infants showed a wider tendency for left gaze preference towards objects and faces of different species and orientation, while in adults the bias appears only towards upright human faces. Rhesus monkeys showed a left gaze bias towards upright human and monkey faces, but not towards inverted faces. Domestic dogs, however, only demonstrated a left gaze bias towards human faces, but not towards monkey or dog faces, nor to inanimate object images. Our findings suggest that face- and species-sensitive gaze asymmetry is more widespread in the animal kingdom than previously recognised, is not constrained by attentional or scanning bias, and could be shaped by experience to develop adaptive behavioural significance

Sequential Effects in Judgements of Attractiveness: The Influences of Face Race and Sex

In perceptual decision-making, a person’s response on a given trial is influenced by their response on the immediately preceding trial. This sequential effect was initially demonstrated in psychophysical tasks, but has now been found in more complex, real-world judgements. The similarity of the current and previous stimuli determines the nature of the effect, with more similar items producing assimilation in judgements, while less similarity can cause a contrast effect. Previous research found assimilation in ratings of facial attractiveness, and here, we investigated whether this effect is influenced by the social categories of the faces presented. Over three experiments, participants rated the attractiveness of own- (White) and other-race (Chinese) faces of both sexes that appeared successively. Through blocking trials by race (Experiment 1), sex (Experiment 2), or both dimensions (Experiment 3), we could examine how sequential judgements were altered by the salience of different social categories in face sequences. For sequences that varied in sex alone, own-race faces showed significantly less opposite-sex assimilation (male and female faces perceived as dissimilar), while other-race faces showed equal assimilation for opposite- and same-sex sequences (male and female faces were not differentiated). For sequences that varied in race alone, categorisation by race resulted in no opposite-race assimilation for either sex of face (White and Chinese faces perceived as dissimilar). For sequences that varied in both race and sex, same-category assimilation was significantly greater than opposite-category. Our results suggest that the race of a face represents a superordinate category relative to sex. These findings demonstrate the importance of social categories when considering sequential judgements of faces, and also highlight a novel approach for investigating how multiple social dimensions interact during decision-making

The Role of Important Non-Parental Adults (VIPs) in the Lives of Older Adolescents: A Comparison of Three Ethnic Groups

Previous research has consistently documented the importance of VIPs (mentors or important non-parental adults) in the lives of adolescents. Little is known, however, about whether VIPs play the same important roles across ethnic groups and whether VIPs remain influential when adolescents are older and involved in romantic relationships. The present study compared VIPs of 355 Hispanic, Asian, and European American older adolescents (age range = 17–19 years; M = 18.7 years; 62% female). Results indicated that, despite ethnic differences in their social capital, VIPs’ psychological characteristics (e.g., warmth and acceptance, depressive symptoms, and problem behavior) were similar. VIPs were perceived to have more positive psychological profiles than parents and peers, and in some cases, romantic partners. Moreover, with a few exceptions, the associations between VIP characteristics and adolescent adjustment (e.g., self-esteem, depressive symptoms, and problem behavior) were largely similar across ethnic groups. Finally, VIPs made unique contributions to adolescents’ self-esteem and problem behaviors even after the effects of romantic partners were considered. Implications of the findings are discussed

Reliability and validity of three questionnaires measuring context-specific sedentary behaviour and associated correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults

BACKGROUND: Reliable and valid measures of total sedentary time, context-specific sedentary behaviour (SB) and its potential correlates are useful for the development of future interventions. The purpose was to examine test-retest reliability and criterion validity of three newly developed questionnaires on total sedentary time, context-specific SB and its potential correlates in adolescents, adults and older adults. METHODS: Reliability and validity was tested in six different samples of Flemish (Belgium) residents. For the reliability study, 20 adolescents, 22 adults and 20 older adults filled out the age-specific SB questionnaire twice. Test-retest reliability was analysed using Kappa coefficients, Intraclass Correlation Coefficients and/or percentage agreement, separately for the three age groups. For the validity study, data were retrieved from 62 adolescents, 33 adults and 33 older adults, with activPAL as criterion measure. Spearman correlations and Bland-Altman plots (or non-parametric approach) were used to analyse criterion validity, separately for the three age groups and for weekday, weekend day and average day. RESULTS: The test-retest reliability for self-reported total sedentary time indicated following values: ICC = 0.37-0.67 in adolescents; ICC = 0.73-0.77 in adults; ICC = 0.68-0.80 in older adults. Item-specific reliability results (e.g. context-specific SB and its potential correlates) showed good-to-excellent reliability in 67.94%, 68.90% and 66.38% of the items in adolescents, adults and older adults respectively. All items belonging to sedentary-related equipment and simultaneous SB showed good reliability. The sections of the questionnaire with lowest reliability were: context-specific SB (adolescents), potential correlates of computer use (adults) and potential correlates of motorized transport (older adults). Spearman correlations between self-reported total sedentary time and the activPAL were different for each age group: rho = 0.02-0.42 (adolescents), rho = 0.06-0.52 (adults), rho = 0.38-0.50 (older adults). Participants over-reported total sedentary time (except for weekend day in older adults) compared to the activPAL, for weekday, weekend day and average day respectively by +57.05%, +46.29%, +53.34% in adolescents; +40.40%, +19.15%, +32.89% in adults; +10.10%, -6.24%, +4.11% in older adults. CONCLUSIONS: The questionnaires showed acceptable test-retest reliability and criterion validity. However, over-reporting of total SB was noticeable in adolescents and adults. Nevertheless, these questionnaires will be useful in getting context-specific information on SB