Rock Glaciers, Water Security and Climate Change in the Bolivian Andes

Water security in the Bolivian Andes is projected to decrease with population growth and climate change. As one of the poorest countries in the region, Bolivia is particularly vulnerable to such changes due to its limited capacity to adapt. Key gaps exist in our knowledge of the Andean cryosphere, including a lack of information on alternative mountain water sources, such as ‘rock glaciers’. The presence and hydrological importance of these cryospheric features is unknown for the Bolivian Andes. Yet, with current and projected [ice] glacier recession forecasted to negatively impact water availabilty, it is important to gather data and understanding on these cryospheric landforms. Consequently, this PhD has created the first rock glacier inventory for the Bolivian Andes, estimated rock glacier water stores, assessed their hydrological importance in comparison to glaciers and modelled the implications of projected rising temperatures on rock glacier activity and permafrost extent. This information has contributed to scientific knowledge about the Bolivian cryosphere and, more specifically, has increased knowledge of the frozen store of water in rock glaciers in the arid mountains of Bolivia where future water security issues are expected in response to climatic change. The rock glacier inventory for the Bolivian Andes was built through expert photomorphic mapping of freely available, high resolution satellite data (Google Earth), supported by a programme of field work during July - August 2011 and July - August 2012. A total of 94 rock glaciers were found to exist in the Bolivian Andes between 15° and 22° S, of which 54 were classified as active, estimated to contain between 0.05 and 0.14 km3 of water. At the national scale, research demonstrated that Bolivian rock glaciers were not as relatively important as hydrological stores when compared to estimations of glacier water equivalences. At the regional scale, three study regions were identified and analysed: Cordillera Real, Sajama and Western Cordillera. Along the Western Cordillera where glaciers are absent, the hydrological stores of the rock glaciers could be considered important. With current and projected glacier recession, it can be assumed that the relative importance of rock glaciers will increase in the Cordillera Real and Sajama. Climate modelling of the the 0 °C isotherm as a proxy for permafrost extent also highlighted this projected decrease. The projected impact of this warming on permafrost extent is modelled to be a loss of up to 95% by 2050 and 99% by 2080 from present day extent. These results were disseminated back to residents of La Paz through a conference held in the third field season (2014). This research is valued as important as continued climate change and population growth are projected to reduce water security in arid regions of the South American Andes. Due to its elevation and high levels of poverty Bolivia is vulnerable to climate change with limited ability to adapt. Specifically for the city of La Paz, its heavy dependence on the glaciers of mountains for potable water supply leaves it particularly vulnerable, especially during the dry season.NERC CASE studentship with Oxfam and Agua Sustentabl

Future climate warming and changes to mountain permafrost in the Bolivian Andes

Water resources in many of the world’s arid mountain ranges are threatened by climate change, and in parts of the South American Andes this is exacerbated by glacier recession and population growth. Alternative sources of water, such as more resilient permafrost features (e.g. rock glaciers), are expected to become increasingly important as current warming continues. Assessments of current and future permafrost extent under climate change are not available for the Southern Hemisphere, yet are required to inform decision making over future water supply and climate change adaptation strategies. Here, downscaled model outputs were used to calculate the projected changes in permafrost extent for a first-order assessment of an example region, the Bolivian Andes. Using the 0 °C mean annual air temperature as a proxy for permafrost extent, these projections show that permafrost areas will shrink from present day extent by up to 95 % under warming projected for the 2050s and by 99 % for the 2080s (under the IPCC A1B scenario, given equilibrium conditions). Using active rock glaciers as a proxy for the lower limit of permafrost extent, we also estimate that projected temperature changes would drive a near total loss of currently active rock glaciers in this region by the end of the century. In conjunction with glacier recession, a loss of permafrost extent of this magnitude represents a water security problem for the latter part of the 21st century, and it is likely that this will have negative effects on one of South America’s fastest growing cities (La Paz), with similar implications for other arid mountain regions

Hydrological modelling as a tool for interdisciplinary workshops on future drought

© 2018, © The Author(s) 2018. Transformative interdisciplinary methods and tools are required to address crucial water-related challenges facing societies in the current era of the Anthropocene. In a community-based study in the Limpopo basin of South Africa, physical and social science methods were brought together to run interdisciplinary workshops aimed at enhancing preparedness for possible future drought. To generate storylines for the workshops, relevant scenarios were modelled using a catchment-scale hydrological model, SHETRAN. Set up using freely available data, local knowledge, and narrative-based group interviews on past experiences of drought, the model acted as a locally-relevant tool for prompting discussions about potential future drought impacts, responses and preparedness, and to stimulate the production of community future narratives. In this paper, we discuss the elements involved in the modelling process: the building of the model through an interdisciplinary approach; setting up the model with limited data; and the translation of the model results into storylines for the workshops. We found that by using this methodology scientific grounding was given to the workshop storylines, and that the local context of the model and the engaging approach of creating narratives encouraged participant involvement in discussions about the future. The method of generating these future stories was an important process for the participants in developing their thinking about possible futures, preparedness and adaptation. In this paper we show how this alternative approach of using a hydrological model has benefits and we discuss the limitations and lessons of the approach for future interdisciplinary research

Water governance challenges in rural South Africa: exploring institutional coordination in drought management

Droughts have severe direct impacts on the livelihoods of rural populations. Thus, the management of water for communal agriculture and water supply should be well coordinated to enhance drought resilience. Notwithstanding the interrelations among water management institutions in South Africa, there are complexities in the way these institutions work together, both in preparation for, and during drought times. In this article, we examine the governance of water resources in South Africa with a view to understanding institutional coordination in drought management at different operational scales. Using a qualitative approach, the roles and relationships between water actors at the local and regional level were analyzed for their adequacy in building local level drought resilience in a village in the Limpopo province, South Africa. Key informant interviews conducted revealed operational drought management challenges that emanate from communication barriers, coordination inconsistences, and undefined, unclear actor roles and responsibilities during disasters. The top-down approach to disaster management, while of some value, currently constrains the effectiveness of the local-level institutions implementing local drought risk reduction efforts. Achieving more successful water and drought governance endeavors could be enhanced by greater and wider engagement with community-based actors and water management institutions

GC Insights: Lessons from participatory water quality research in the upper Santa River basin, Peru

Here we share four key lessons from an inter-disciplinary project (Nuestro Rio) that gathered community perspectives on local water quality in the Santa River basin (Peru) utilising a digital technological approach where we collected data via a novel photo elicitation app, supported by a field work campaign. The lessons explored in this article provide insights into challenges and opportunities for researchers considering developing technological tools for encouraging participation and engagement in marginalised communities

Drought in the Anthropocene

Drought management is inefficient because feedbacks between drought and people are not fully understood. In this human-influenced era, we need to rethink the concept of drought to include the human role in mitigating and enhancing drought

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes. Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include: (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered normal or reference conditions) over time? Answering these questions requires exploration of qualitative and quantitative data as well as mixed modelling approaches. The challenges related to drought research and management in the Anthropocene are not unique to drought, but do require urgent attention. We give recommendations drawn from the fields of flood research, ecology, water management, and water resources studies. The framework presented here provides a holistic view on drought in the Anthropocene, which will help improve management strategies for mitigating the severity and reducing the impacts of droughts in future

Drought in a human-modified world: reframing drought definitions, understanding, and analysis approaches

In the current human-modified world, or Anthropocene, the state of water stores and fluxes has become dependent on human as well as natural processes.Water deficits (or droughts) are the result of a complex interaction between meteorological anomalies, land surface processes, and human inflows, outflows, and storage changes. Our current inability to adequately analyse and manage drought in many places points to gaps in our understanding and to inadequate data and tools. The Anthropocene requires a new framework for drought definitions and research. Drought definitions need to be revisited to explicitly include human processes driving and modifying soil moisture drought and hydrological drought development. We give recommendations for robust drought definitions to clarify timescales of drought and prevent confusion with related terms such as water scarcity and overexploitation. Additionally, our understanding and analysis of drought need to move from single driver to multiple drivers and from uni-directional to multi-directional. We identify research gaps and propose analysis approaches on (1) drivers, (2) modifiers, (3) impacts, (4) feedbacks, and (5) changing the baseline of drought in the Anthropocene. The most pressing research questions are related to the attribution of drought to its causes, to linking drought impacts to drought characteristics, and to societal adaptation and responses to drought. Example questions include (i) What are the dominant drivers of drought in different parts of the world? (ii) How do human modifications of drought enhance or alleviate drought severity? (iii) How do impacts of drought depend on the physical characteristics of drought vs. the vulnerability of people or the environment? (iv) To what extent are physical and human drought processes coupled, and can feedback loops be identified and altered to lessen or mitigate drought? (v) How should we adapt our drought analysis to accommodate changes in the normal situation (i.e. what are considered normal or reference conditions) over time