Modeling water quality in the Anthropocene : directions for the next-generation aquatic ecosystem models

“Everything changes and nothing stands still” (Heraclitus). Here we review three major improvements to freshwater aquatic ecosystem models — and ecological models in general — as water quality scenario analysis tools towards a sustainable future. To tackle the rapid and deeply connected dynamics characteristic of the Anthropocene, we argue for the inclusion of eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. These dynamics arise from adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change and act at different integration levels and different time scales. We provide reasons and means to incorporate each improvement into aquatic ecosystem models. Throughout this study we refer to Lake Victoria as a microcosm of the evolving novel social-ecological systems of the Anthropocene. The Lake Victoria case clearly shows how interlinked eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics are, and demonstrates the need for transdisciplinary research approaches towards global sustainability. Highlights • We present a research agenda to enhance water quality modeling in the Anthropocene. • We review adaptive responses in organisms and ecosystems to global environmental change. • We focus on eco-evolutionary, novel ecosystem and social-ecological dynamics. • These dynamics act at different integration levels and different time scales. • Lake Victoria is an iconic example of an evolving novel social-ecological system

Chains as strong as the weakest link: remote assessment of aquatic resource use on spring migration by Bewick's Swans

Migratory species are threatened worldwide by climate change, overexploitation, and habitat changes. Availability of suitable habitat is important for flying migrants, and in particular for large birds that use the energetically expensive flapping flight mode, such as the Bewick's Swan (Cygnus columbianus bewickii). Bewick's Swans largely feed on aquatic macrophytes during migration that may disappear when nutrient levels, waves, and turbidity exceed certain thresholds. Macrophyte collapse has been suggested as a reason for the sharp decline of the Bewick's Swan population during 1995-2015. We used Bewick's Swans fitted with GPS/GSM neck collars including an accelerometer and water sensor to record the occurrence of aquatic foraging in remote stopovers along their migratory route. We concentrated on spring migration, when stopovers are longer than during autumn, and focused on four key sites identified in earlier tracking studies. Within these sites, we identified areas that are protected based on the World Database on Protected Areas (WDPA). During three years (2017-2019), we obtained a total of 51 complete spring tracks of adult female Bewick's Swans. Most swans showed aquatic foraging along the coast of Estonia and in Dvina Bay, and about half in the Gulf of Finland and Cheskaya Bay. In Estonia and in the Gulf of Finland, swans predominantly used protected zones, but in Dvina Bay swans also foraged extensively in areas that are currently not protected according to WDPA. No protected areas occur in Cheskaya Bay. Macrophyte vegetation is threatened by ongoing or planned construction works in the Gulf of Finland and Dvina Bay, and by future oil and gas exploitation in Cheskaya Bay. Our study shows how migrants can be used as sentinels to pinpoint areas that require protection in order to maintain a chain of suitable stopovers on their migration

Data and scripts for "Migratory swans individually adjust their autumn migration and winter range to a warming climate"

Contains the tracking data used to run both the daily autumn movement and mean midwinter distance analyses, including midwinter temperature data and some customized functions that are needed.</p

Will legal international rhino horn trade save wild rhino populations?

Wild vertebrate populations all over the globe are in decline, with poaching being the second-most-important cause. The high poaching rate of rhinoceros may drive these species into extinction within the coming decades. Some stakeholders argue to lift the ban on international rhino horn trade to potentially benefit rhino conservation, as current interventions appear to be insufficient. We reviewed scientific and grey literature to scrutinize the validity of reasoning behind the potential benefit of legal horn trade for wild rhino populations. We identified four mechanisms through which legal trade would impact wild rhino populations, of which only the increased revenue for rhino farmers could potentially benefit rhino conservation. Conversely, the global demand for rhino horn is likely to increase to a level that cannot be met solely by legal supply. Moreover, corruption is omnipresent in countries along the trade routes, which has the potential to negatively affect rhino conservation. Finally, programmes aimed at reducing rhino horn demand will be counteracted through trade legalization by removing the stigma on consuming rhino horn. Combining these insights and comparing them with criteria for sustainable wildlife farming, we conclude that legalizing rhino horn trade will likely negatively impact the remaining wild rhino populations. To preserve rhino species, we suggest to prioritize reducing corruption within rhino horn trade, increasing the rhino population within well-protected 'safe havens' and implementing educational programmes and law enforcement targeted at rhino horn consumers.peerReviewe

The Use of Genomics in Conservation Management of the Endangered Visayan Warty Pig (Sus cebifrons)

The list of threatened and endangered species is growing rapidly, due to various anthropogenic causes. Many endangered species are present in captivity and actively managed in breeding programs in which often little is known about the founder individuals. Recent developments in genetic research techniques have made it possible to sequence and study whole genomes. In this study we used the critically endangered Visayan warty pig (Sus cebifrons) as a case study to test the use of genomic information as a tool in conservation management. Two captive populations of S. cebifrons exist, which originated from two different Philippine islands. We found some evidence for a recent split between the two island populations; however all individuals that were sequenced show a similar demographic history. Evidence for both past and recent inbreeding indicated that the founders were at least to some extent related. Together with this, the low level of nucleotide diversity compared to other Sus species potentially poses a threat to the viability of the captive populations. In conclusion, genomic techniques answered some important questions about this critically endangered mammal and can be a valuable toolset to inform future conservation management in other species as well

Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a “poster species” for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere

Corrigendum: Internet Blogs, Polar Bears, and Climate-Change Denial by Proxy (BioScience 68 (281-287))

This paper has been corrected online and in print in order to clarify Dr. Crockford's scientific expertise and financial links in relation to the arguments made in the paper (BioScience 68: 281-287). The corrected text is as follows: First change: Notably, as of this writing, Crockford has neither conducted any original research nor published any articles in the peer-reviewed literature on the effects of sea ice on the population dynamics of polar bears. Second change: Some of the most prominent AGW deniers, including Crockford, are linked with or receive support from organizations that downplay AGW (e.g., Dr. Crockford has previously been paid for report writing by the Heartland Institute). The authors apologize for any confusion

Priorities for translating goodwill between movement ecologists and conservation practitioners into effective collaboration

Abstract Addressing ongoing biodiversity loss requires collaboration between conservation scientists and practitioners. However, such collaboration has proved challenging. Despite the potential importance of tracking animal movements for conservation, reviews of the tracking literature have identified a gap between the academic discipline of movement ecology and its application to biodiversity conservation. Through structured conversations with movement ecologists and conservation practitioners, we aimed to understand whether the identified gap is also perceived in practice, and if so, what factors hamper collaboration and how these factors can be remediated. We found that both groups are motivated and willing to collaborate. However, because their motivations differ, there is potential for misunderstandings and miscommunications. In addition, external factors such as funder requirements, academic metrics, and journal scopes may limit the applicability of scientific results in a conservation setting. Potential solutions we identified included improved communication and better presentation of results, acknowledging each other's motivations and desired outputs, and adjustment of funder priorities. Addressing gaps between science and implementation can enhance collaboration and support conservation action to address the global biodiversity crisis more effectively

Data from: Internet blogs, polar bears, and climate-change denial by proxy

Increasing surface temperatures, Arctic sea-ice loss, and other evidence of anthropogenic global warming (AGW) are acknowledged by every major scientific organization in the world. However, there is a wide gap between this broad scientific consensus and public opinion. Internet blogs have strongly contributed to this consensus gap by fomenting misunderstandings of AGW causes and consequences. Polar bears (Ursus maritimus) have become a “poster species” for AGW, making them a target of those denying AGW evidence. Here, focusing on Arctic sea ice and polar bears, we show that blogs that deny or downplay AGW disregard the overwhelming scientific evidence of Arctic sea-ice loss and polar bear vulnerability. By denying the impacts of AGW on polar bears, bloggers aim to cast doubt on other established ecological consequences of AGW, aggravating the consensus gap. To counter misinformation and reduce this gap, scientists should directly engage the public in the media and blogosphere